Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland from the Pacific across the western US today. This will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across the southern Sierra and into the Great Basin. While there is some potential for rain/snow showers, an increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada and along/east of the southern Sierra. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in these regions are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that a modestly amplified wave within the mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern Pacific will split while progressing inland of the Pacific coast during this period. One emerging smaller-scale perturbation is forecast to contribute to cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, while another impulse digs inland across the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin by late tonight. In lower-levels a cold front may precede the trailing short wave through much of the West, advancing into the Southwest and approaching the southern Rockies by daybreak Tuesday. As downstream ridging develops eastward through interior North America, it appears that mid-level troughing will amplify to its east, as one notable embedded short wave digs across the lower Great Lakes vicinity through the northern Atlantic Seaboard. This is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion southeast of the Upper Midwest through much of the Northeast, Ohio and Missouri Valleys. A preceding front is likely to advance through much of the southern Mid Atlantic, while stalling/weakening over the Gulf Coast states. ...Southeast... In advance of the lead cold front, models suggest that a mid-level perturbation will be in the process of accelerating east of the southern Appalachians by 12Z this morning. It appears that forcing for ascent may be accompanied by some risk for thunderstorm development near the coastal Carolinas at the outset of the period. However, guidance suggests that the more substantive destabilization and higher probabilities for thunderstorm initiation will generally focus offshore of coastal areas during the mid to late morning. ...Pacific Northwest into northern Sierra Nevada... Beneath a tongue of relatively cool mid-level air (-26 to -28C around 500 mb) forecast to spread inland of the coast during the day, destabilization may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning across coastal Washington/Oregon into the western slopes of the Cascades, and perhaps along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that a modestly amplified wave within the mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern Pacific will split while progressing inland of the Pacific coast during this period. One emerging smaller-scale perturbation is forecast to contribute to cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, while another impulse digs inland across the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin by late tonight. In lower-levels a cold front may precede the trailing short wave through much of the West, advancing into the Southwest and approaching the southern Rockies by daybreak Tuesday. As downstream ridging develops eastward through interior North America, it appears that mid-level troughing will amplify to its east, as one notable embedded short wave digs across the lower Great Lakes vicinity through the northern Atlantic Seaboard. This is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion southeast of the Upper Midwest through much of the Northeast, Ohio and Missouri Valleys. A preceding front is likely to advance through much of the southern Mid Atlantic, while stalling/weakening over the Gulf Coast states. ...Southeast... In advance of the lead cold front, models suggest that a mid-level perturbation will be in the process of accelerating east of the southern Appalachians by 12Z this morning. It appears that forcing for ascent may be accompanied by some risk for thunderstorm development near the coastal Carolinas at the outset of the period. However, guidance suggests that the more substantive destabilization and higher probabilities for thunderstorm initiation will generally focus offshore of coastal areas during the mid to late morning. ...Pacific Northwest into northern Sierra Nevada... Beneath a tongue of relatively cool mid-level air (-26 to -28C around 500 mb) forecast to spread inland of the coast during the day, destabilization may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning across coastal Washington/Oregon into the western slopes of the Cascades, and perhaps along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that a modestly amplified wave within the mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern Pacific will split while progressing inland of the Pacific coast during this period. One emerging smaller-scale perturbation is forecast to contribute to cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, while another impulse digs inland across the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin by late tonight. In lower-levels a cold front may precede the trailing short wave through much of the West, advancing into the Southwest and approaching the southern Rockies by daybreak Tuesday. As downstream ridging develops eastward through interior North America, it appears that mid-level troughing will amplify to its east, as one notable embedded short wave digs across the lower Great Lakes vicinity through the northern Atlantic Seaboard. This is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion southeast of the Upper Midwest through much of the Northeast, Ohio and Missouri Valleys. A preceding front is likely to advance through much of the southern Mid Atlantic, while stalling/weakening over the Gulf Coast states. ...Southeast... In advance of the lead cold front, models suggest that a mid-level perturbation will be in the process of accelerating east of the southern Appalachians by 12Z this morning. It appears that forcing for ascent may be accompanied by some risk for thunderstorm development near the coastal Carolinas at the outset of the period. However, guidance suggests that the more substantive destabilization and higher probabilities for thunderstorm initiation will generally focus offshore of coastal areas during the mid to late morning. ...Pacific Northwest into northern Sierra Nevada... Beneath a tongue of relatively cool mid-level air (-26 to -28C around 500 mb) forecast to spread inland of the coast during the day, destabilization may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning across coastal Washington/Oregon into the western slopes of the Cascades, and perhaps along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that a modestly amplified wave within the mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern Pacific will split while progressing inland of the Pacific coast during this period. One emerging smaller-scale perturbation is forecast to contribute to cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, while another impulse digs inland across the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin by late tonight. In lower-levels a cold front may precede the trailing short wave through much of the West, advancing into the Southwest and approaching the southern Rockies by daybreak Tuesday. As downstream ridging develops eastward through interior North America, it appears that mid-level troughing will amplify to its east, as one notable embedded short wave digs across the lower Great Lakes vicinity through the northern Atlantic Seaboard. This is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion southeast of the Upper Midwest through much of the Northeast, Ohio and Missouri Valleys. A preceding front is likely to advance through much of the southern Mid Atlantic, while stalling/weakening over the Gulf Coast states. ...Southeast... In advance of the lead cold front, models suggest that a mid-level perturbation will be in the process of accelerating east of the southern Appalachians by 12Z this morning. It appears that forcing for ascent may be accompanied by some risk for thunderstorm development near the coastal Carolinas at the outset of the period. However, guidance suggests that the more substantive destabilization and higher probabilities for thunderstorm initiation will generally focus offshore of coastal areas during the mid to late morning. ...Pacific Northwest into northern Sierra Nevada... Beneath a tongue of relatively cool mid-level air (-26 to -28C around 500 mb) forecast to spread inland of the coast during the day, destabilization may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning across coastal Washington/Oregon into the western slopes of the Cascades, and perhaps along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that a modestly amplified wave within the mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern Pacific will split while progressing inland of the Pacific coast during this period. One emerging smaller-scale perturbation is forecast to contribute to cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, while another impulse digs inland across the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin by late tonight. In lower-levels a cold front may precede the trailing short wave through much of the West, advancing into the Southwest and approaching the southern Rockies by daybreak Tuesday. As downstream ridging develops eastward through interior North America, it appears that mid-level troughing will amplify to its east, as one notable embedded short wave digs across the lower Great Lakes vicinity through the northern Atlantic Seaboard. This is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion southeast of the Upper Midwest through much of the Northeast, Ohio and Missouri Valleys. A preceding front is likely to advance through much of the southern Mid Atlantic, while stalling/weakening over the Gulf Coast states. ...Southeast... In advance of the lead cold front, models suggest that a mid-level perturbation will be in the process of accelerating east of the southern Appalachians by 12Z this morning. It appears that forcing for ascent may be accompanied by some risk for thunderstorm development near the coastal Carolinas at the outset of the period. However, guidance suggests that the more substantive destabilization and higher probabilities for thunderstorm initiation will generally focus offshore of coastal areas during the mid to late morning. ...Pacific Northwest into northern Sierra Nevada... Beneath a tongue of relatively cool mid-level air (-26 to -28C around 500 mb) forecast to spread inland of the coast during the day, destabilization may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning across coastal Washington/Oregon into the western slopes of the Cascades, and perhaps along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that a modestly amplified wave within the mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern Pacific will split while progressing inland of the Pacific coast during this period. One emerging smaller-scale perturbation is forecast to contribute to cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, while another impulse digs inland across the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin by late tonight. In lower-levels a cold front may precede the trailing short wave through much of the West, advancing into the Southwest and approaching the southern Rockies by daybreak Tuesday. As downstream ridging develops eastward through interior North America, it appears that mid-level troughing will amplify to its east, as one notable embedded short wave digs across the lower Great Lakes vicinity through the northern Atlantic Seaboard. This is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion southeast of the Upper Midwest through much of the Northeast, Ohio and Missouri Valleys. A preceding front is likely to advance through much of the southern Mid Atlantic, while stalling/weakening over the Gulf Coast states. ...Southeast... In advance of the lead cold front, models suggest that a mid-level perturbation will be in the process of accelerating east of the southern Appalachians by 12Z this morning. It appears that forcing for ascent may be accompanied by some risk for thunderstorm development near the coastal Carolinas at the outset of the period. However, guidance suggests that the more substantive destabilization and higher probabilities for thunderstorm initiation will generally focus offshore of coastal areas during the mid to late morning. ...Pacific Northwest into northern Sierra Nevada... Beneath a tongue of relatively cool mid-level air (-26 to -28C around 500 mb) forecast to spread inland of the coast during the day, destabilization may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning across coastal Washington/Oregon into the western slopes of the Cascades, and perhaps along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will remain low across much of the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Outlook Update... Boundary-layer destabilization beneath the mid-level cold core now approaching southwestern Ontario and the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity has remained quite weak, with warmer layers aloft tending to minimize lightning production in widely scattered ongoing convection. Probabilities for additional convection capable of producing lightning will become increasingly negligible as the upper impulse progresses into Ontario through 03-05Z. Otherwise, low-level moistening on southerly return flow has contributed to a corridor of weak pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization across the lower Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys. Beneath weak mid-level troughing now shifting east of the middle/lower Mississippi Valley, forcing for ascent may be sufficient to support some further increase in weak thunderstorm development this evening across northeastern Mississippi into portions of south central Kentucky. This will tend to advect east-northeastward into a less unstable environment as boundary-layer instability wanes to the west with the loss of daytime heating, leading to diminishing potential for thunderstorms late this evening into the overnight hours. ..Kerr.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will remain low across much of the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Outlook Update... Boundary-layer destabilization beneath the mid-level cold core now approaching southwestern Ontario and the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity has remained quite weak, with warmer layers aloft tending to minimize lightning production in widely scattered ongoing convection. Probabilities for additional convection capable of producing lightning will become increasingly negligible as the upper impulse progresses into Ontario through 03-05Z. Otherwise, low-level moistening on southerly return flow has contributed to a corridor of weak pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization across the lower Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys. Beneath weak mid-level troughing now shifting east of the middle/lower Mississippi Valley, forcing for ascent may be sufficient to support some further increase in weak thunderstorm development this evening across northeastern Mississippi into portions of south central Kentucky. This will tend to advect east-northeastward into a less unstable environment as boundary-layer instability wanes to the west with the loss of daytime heating, leading to diminishing potential for thunderstorms late this evening into the overnight hours. ..Kerr.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will remain low across much of the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Outlook Update... Boundary-layer destabilization beneath the mid-level cold core now approaching southwestern Ontario and the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity has remained quite weak, with warmer layers aloft tending to minimize lightning production in widely scattered ongoing convection. Probabilities for additional convection capable of producing lightning will become increasingly negligible as the upper impulse progresses into Ontario through 03-05Z. Otherwise, low-level moistening on southerly return flow has contributed to a corridor of weak pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization across the lower Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys. Beneath weak mid-level troughing now shifting east of the middle/lower Mississippi Valley, forcing for ascent may be sufficient to support some further increase in weak thunderstorm development this evening across northeastern Mississippi into portions of south central Kentucky. This will tend to advect east-northeastward into a less unstable environment as boundary-layer instability wanes to the west with the loss of daytime heating, leading to diminishing potential for thunderstorms late this evening into the overnight hours. ..Kerr.. 11/11/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 10 23:19:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 10 23:19:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS this week into next weekend. Multiple cold fronts will sweep over the Northeast and down the West Coast leading to potential fire weather concerns at times in portions of these regions. Areas in the Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains will likely have stronger winds overlap lower RH, but fuels will remain a mitigating factor. ...Southern/Central California... Gusty northwest winds across portions of southern California will turn north-northeasterly early Day 3/Tuesday and continue into Day 4/Wednesday. Gusty offshore winds of 25-50 mph are expected Day 3/Tuesday morning but temperatures will be cooler with RH hovering around elevated thresholds. RH will decrease especially at mid/upper slopes below critical thresholds with poor RH overnight recovery Day 3/Tuesday evening into Day 4/Wednesday morning, but winds will be weaker. While the strongest offshore winds and lowest forecast RH are unlikely to overlap, elevated to locally critical conditions are possible starting early Day 3/Tuesday morning through Day 3/Tuesday night. Behind another cold front, gusty northerly to offshore winds are possible in southern California and the Central Valley/vicinity next weekend. Mid/upper slopes around the Bay Area, the foothills surrounding the Central Valley, and the Transverse Ranges of southern California are forecast to have gusty north-northeast winds with lowering RH on Day 7/Saturday - Day 8/Sunday. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty exists regarding the amount of preceding precipitation and strength of the northerly/offshore winds. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Day 4/Wednesday and again on Day 7/Saturday. Precipitation is likely across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast associated with both frontal passages, but some areas are likely to receive little and possibly no precipitation in the next seven days. Given the record high fire danger, drier pockets will be monitored for including probabilities or outlook areas in subsequent issuances. ..Nauslar.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS this week into next weekend. Multiple cold fronts will sweep over the Northeast and down the West Coast leading to potential fire weather concerns at times in portions of these regions. Areas in the Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains will likely have stronger winds overlap lower RH, but fuels will remain a mitigating factor. ...Southern/Central California... Gusty northwest winds across portions of southern California will turn north-northeasterly early Day 3/Tuesday and continue into Day 4/Wednesday. Gusty offshore winds of 25-50 mph are expected Day 3/Tuesday morning but temperatures will be cooler with RH hovering around elevated thresholds. RH will decrease especially at mid/upper slopes below critical thresholds with poor RH overnight recovery Day 3/Tuesday evening into Day 4/Wednesday morning, but winds will be weaker. While the strongest offshore winds and lowest forecast RH are unlikely to overlap, elevated to locally critical conditions are possible starting early Day 3/Tuesday morning through Day 3/Tuesday night. Behind another cold front, gusty northerly to offshore winds are possible in southern California and the Central Valley/vicinity next weekend. Mid/upper slopes around the Bay Area, the foothills surrounding the Central Valley, and the Transverse Ranges of southern California are forecast to have gusty north-northeast winds with lowering RH on Day 7/Saturday - Day 8/Sunday. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty exists regarding the amount of preceding precipitation and strength of the northerly/offshore winds. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Day 4/Wednesday and again on Day 7/Saturday. Precipitation is likely across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast associated with both frontal passages, but some areas are likely to receive little and possibly no precipitation in the next seven days. Given the record high fire danger, drier pockets will be monitored for including probabilities or outlook areas in subsequent issuances. ..Nauslar.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS this week into next weekend. Multiple cold fronts will sweep over the Northeast and down the West Coast leading to potential fire weather concerns at times in portions of these regions. Areas in the Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains will likely have stronger winds overlap lower RH, but fuels will remain a mitigating factor. ...Southern/Central California... Gusty northwest winds across portions of southern California will turn north-northeasterly early Day 3/Tuesday and continue into Day 4/Wednesday. Gusty offshore winds of 25-50 mph are expected Day 3/Tuesday morning but temperatures will be cooler with RH hovering around elevated thresholds. RH will decrease especially at mid/upper slopes below critical thresholds with poor RH overnight recovery Day 3/Tuesday evening into Day 4/Wednesday morning, but winds will be weaker. While the strongest offshore winds and lowest forecast RH are unlikely to overlap, elevated to locally critical conditions are possible starting early Day 3/Tuesday morning through Day 3/Tuesday night. Behind another cold front, gusty northerly to offshore winds are possible in southern California and the Central Valley/vicinity next weekend. Mid/upper slopes around the Bay Area, the foothills surrounding the Central Valley, and the Transverse Ranges of southern California are forecast to have gusty north-northeast winds with lowering RH on Day 7/Saturday - Day 8/Sunday. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty exists regarding the amount of preceding precipitation and strength of the northerly/offshore winds. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Day 4/Wednesday and again on Day 7/Saturday. Precipitation is likely across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast associated with both frontal passages, but some areas are likely to receive little and possibly no precipitation in the next seven days. Given the record high fire danger, drier pockets will be monitored for including probabilities or outlook areas in subsequent issuances. ..Nauslar.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS this week into next weekend. Multiple cold fronts will sweep over the Northeast and down the West Coast leading to potential fire weather concerns at times in portions of these regions. Areas in the Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains will likely have stronger winds overlap lower RH, but fuels will remain a mitigating factor. ...Southern/Central California... Gusty northwest winds across portions of southern California will turn north-northeasterly early Day 3/Tuesday and continue into Day 4/Wednesday. Gusty offshore winds of 25-50 mph are expected Day 3/Tuesday morning but temperatures will be cooler with RH hovering around elevated thresholds. RH will decrease especially at mid/upper slopes below critical thresholds with poor RH overnight recovery Day 3/Tuesday evening into Day 4/Wednesday morning, but winds will be weaker. While the strongest offshore winds and lowest forecast RH are unlikely to overlap, elevated to locally critical conditions are possible starting early Day 3/Tuesday morning through Day 3/Tuesday night. Behind another cold front, gusty northerly to offshore winds are possible in southern California and the Central Valley/vicinity next weekend. Mid/upper slopes around the Bay Area, the foothills surrounding the Central Valley, and the Transverse Ranges of southern California are forecast to have gusty north-northeast winds with lowering RH on Day 7/Saturday - Day 8/Sunday. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty exists regarding the amount of preceding precipitation and strength of the northerly/offshore winds. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Day 4/Wednesday and again on Day 7/Saturday. Precipitation is likely across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast associated with both frontal passages, but some areas are likely to receive little and possibly no precipitation in the next seven days. Given the record high fire danger, drier pockets will be monitored for including probabilities or outlook areas in subsequent issuances. ..Nauslar.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS this week into next weekend. Multiple cold fronts will sweep over the Northeast and down the West Coast leading to potential fire weather concerns at times in portions of these regions. Areas in the Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains will likely have stronger winds overlap lower RH, but fuels will remain a mitigating factor. ...Southern/Central California... Gusty northwest winds across portions of southern California will turn north-northeasterly early Day 3/Tuesday and continue into Day 4/Wednesday. Gusty offshore winds of 25-50 mph are expected Day 3/Tuesday morning but temperatures will be cooler with RH hovering around elevated thresholds. RH will decrease especially at mid/upper slopes below critical thresholds with poor RH overnight recovery Day 3/Tuesday evening into Day 4/Wednesday morning, but winds will be weaker. While the strongest offshore winds and lowest forecast RH are unlikely to overlap, elevated to locally critical conditions are possible starting early Day 3/Tuesday morning through Day 3/Tuesday night. Behind another cold front, gusty northerly to offshore winds are possible in southern California and the Central Valley/vicinity next weekend. Mid/upper slopes around the Bay Area, the foothills surrounding the Central Valley, and the Transverse Ranges of southern California are forecast to have gusty north-northeast winds with lowering RH on Day 7/Saturday - Day 8/Sunday. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty exists regarding the amount of preceding precipitation and strength of the northerly/offshore winds. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Day 4/Wednesday and again on Day 7/Saturday. Precipitation is likely across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast associated with both frontal passages, but some areas are likely to receive little and possibly no precipitation in the next seven days. Given the record high fire danger, drier pockets will be monitored for including probabilities or outlook areas in subsequent issuances. ..Nauslar.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight. ...20Z Update... Other than minor changes to the general thunder area based on current observations, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 11/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024/ ...Discussion... An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St. Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the period. As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z (Monday morning). Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability. While a more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear precludes appreciable severe potential. Farther north, stronger flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to areas farther south. As such, severe weather is not anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight. ...20Z Update... Other than minor changes to the general thunder area based on current observations, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 11/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024/ ...Discussion... An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St. Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the period. As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z (Monday morning). Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability. While a more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear precludes appreciable severe potential. Farther north, stronger flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to areas farther south. As such, severe weather is not anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight. ...20Z Update... Other than minor changes to the general thunder area based on current observations, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 11/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024/ ...Discussion... An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St. Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the period. As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z (Monday morning). Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability. While a more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear precludes appreciable severe potential. Farther north, stronger flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to areas farther south. As such, severe weather is not anticipated. Read more