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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms developing across the northern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Basin this afternoon may yield an isolated severe risk, before spreading eastward toward the northern High Plains this evening. ...Northern Great Basin/Rockies into the Adjacent High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows a smoke-encased mid to upper-level low/vorticity maximum over central ID. This upper feature will move to near southwest MT/eastern ID late tonight. The satellite data late this morning shows agitated cumulus developing immediately ahead of the vorticity max near the ID/MT border, and as large-scale ascent spreads east, additional thunderstorms (widely scattered to scattered coverage) should develop over the higher terrain through early afternoon in tandem with daytime heating. Forecast soundings across southwest MT into northwest WY show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with some elongation of the hodograph. A few of the stronger storms will probably acquire transient supercell characteristics and have an associated hail/wind threat. Some clustering may eventually evolve by early evening as storms move into south-central MT and adjacent parts of northern WY. Somewhat more limited low-level moisture should be present this afternoon farther south into WY and northern UT. Even so, diurnal heating will aid in a deeply mixed boundary layer by this afternoon, and steep mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain over this region. The net result will be high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts initially developing across northern UT into far eastern ID, and subsequently moving east-northeastward over WY through the evening. ..Smith/Flournoy/Squitieri.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing across the northern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Basin this afternoon may produce occasional strong to severe wind gusts, before spreading eastward toward the northern High Plains this evening. ...Northern Great Basin/Rockies into the Adjacent High Plains... An upper trough/low over the Pacific Northwest this morning will continue moving eastward today across the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to gradually weaken through the period, but enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly flow will persist across parts of the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies, thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain through early afternoon in tandem with daytime heating. Latest surface observations show somewhat greater low-level moisture across this region, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s across central ID into southwest MT. Although instability is forecast to remain fairly modest this afternoon, deep-layer shear around 25-35 kt should be sufficient to support organized convection, including the potential for a couple of marginal supercells initially with associated hail/wind threat. With steepened low/mid-level lapse rates present, this activity should continue to pose some threat for isolated strong to severe wind gusts as it congeals and spreads east-northeastward across parts of the northern High Plains through this evening. Somewhat more limited low-level moisture should be present this afternoon farther south into WY and northern UT. Even so, diurnal heating will aid in a deeply mixed boundary layer by this afternoon, and steep mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain over this region. The net result will be high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds initially developing across northern UT into far eastern ID, and subsequently moving east-northeastward over WY through the evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains generally low at this time given the weak instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast, especially with southward extent into the northern Great Basin and WY. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing across the northern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Basin this afternoon may produce occasional strong to severe wind gusts, before spreading eastward toward the northern High Plains this evening. ...Northern Great Basin/Rockies into the Adjacent High Plains... An upper trough/low over the Pacific Northwest this morning will continue moving eastward today across the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to gradually weaken through the period, but enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly flow will persist across parts of the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies, thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain through early afternoon in tandem with daytime heating. Latest surface observations show somewhat greater low-level moisture across this region, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s across central ID into southwest MT. Although instability is forecast to remain fairly modest this afternoon, deep-layer shear around 25-35 kt should be sufficient to support organized convection, including the potential for a couple of marginal supercells initially with associated hail/wind threat. With steepened low/mid-level lapse rates present, this activity should continue to pose some threat for isolated strong to severe wind gusts as it congeals and spreads east-northeastward across parts of the northern High Plains through this evening. Somewhat more limited low-level moisture should be present this afternoon farther south into WY and northern UT. Even so, diurnal heating will aid in a deeply mixed boundary layer by this afternoon, and steep mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain over this region. The net result will be high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds initially developing across northern UT into far eastern ID, and subsequently moving east-northeastward over WY through the evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains generally low at this time given the weak instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast, especially with southward extent into the northern Great Basin and WY. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing across the northern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Basin this afternoon may produce occasional strong to severe wind gusts, before spreading eastward toward the northern High Plains this evening. ...Northern Great Basin/Rockies into the Adjacent High Plains... An upper trough/low over the Pacific Northwest this morning will continue moving eastward today across the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to gradually weaken through the period, but enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly flow will persist across parts of the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies, thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain through early afternoon in tandem with daytime heating. Latest surface observations show somewhat greater low-level moisture across this region, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s across central ID into southwest MT. Although instability is forecast to remain fairly modest this afternoon, deep-layer shear around 25-35 kt should be sufficient to support organized convection, including the potential for a couple of marginal supercells initially with associated hail/wind threat. With steepened low/mid-level lapse rates present, this activity should continue to pose some threat for isolated strong to severe wind gusts as it congeals and spreads east-northeastward across parts of the northern High Plains through this evening. Somewhat more limited low-level moisture should be present this afternoon farther south into WY and northern UT. Even so, diurnal heating will aid in a deeply mixed boundary layer by this afternoon, and steep mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain over this region. The net result will be high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds initially developing across northern UT into far eastern ID, and subsequently moving east-northeastward over WY through the evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains generally low at this time given the weak instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast, especially with southward extent into the northern Great Basin and WY. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing across the northern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Basin this afternoon may produce occasional strong to severe wind gusts, before spreading eastward toward the northern High Plains this evening. ...Northern Great Basin/Rockies into the Adjacent High Plains... An upper trough/low over the Pacific Northwest this morning will continue moving eastward today across the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to gradually weaken through the period, but enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly flow will persist across parts of the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies, thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain through early afternoon in tandem with daytime heating. Latest surface observations show somewhat greater low-level moisture across this region, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s across central ID into southwest MT. Although instability is forecast to remain fairly modest this afternoon, deep-layer shear around 25-35 kt should be sufficient to support organized convection, including the potential for a couple of marginal supercells initially with associated hail/wind threat. With steepened low/mid-level lapse rates present, this activity should continue to pose some threat for isolated strong to severe wind gusts as it congeals and spreads east-northeastward across parts of the northern High Plains through this evening. Somewhat more limited low-level moisture should be present this afternoon farther south into WY and northern UT. Even so, diurnal heating will aid in a deeply mixed boundary layer by this afternoon, and steep mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain over this region. The net result will be high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds initially developing across northern UT into far eastern ID, and subsequently moving east-northeastward over WY through the evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains generally low at this time given the weak instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast, especially with southward extent into the northern Great Basin and WY. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing across the northern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Basin this afternoon may produce occasional strong to severe wind gusts, before spreading eastward toward the northern High Plains this evening. ...Northern Great Basin/Rockies into the Adjacent High Plains... An upper trough/low over the Pacific Northwest this morning will continue moving eastward today across the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to gradually weaken through the period, but enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly flow will persist across parts of the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies, thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain through early afternoon in tandem with daytime heating. Latest surface observations show somewhat greater low-level moisture across this region, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s across central ID into southwest MT. Although instability is forecast to remain fairly modest this afternoon, deep-layer shear around 25-35 kt should be sufficient to support organized convection, including the potential for a couple of marginal supercells initially with associated hail/wind threat. With steepened low/mid-level lapse rates present, this activity should continue to pose some threat for isolated strong to severe wind gusts as it congeals and spreads east-northeastward across parts of the northern High Plains through this evening. Somewhat more limited low-level moisture should be present this afternoon farther south into WY and northern UT. Even so, diurnal heating will aid in a deeply mixed boundary layer by this afternoon, and steep mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain over this region. The net result will be high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds initially developing across northern UT into far eastern ID, and subsequently moving east-northeastward over WY through the evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains generally low at this time given the weak instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast, especially with southward extent into the northern Great Basin and WY. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/03/2024 Read more

115
ABPZ20 KNHC 031146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... On D4/Friday, on upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes region. In response, a surface low is forecast to deepen in the vicinity of the lower Great Lakes, though the timing and intensity of cyclogenesis continues to vary among extended-range guidance. Depending on the timing of the upper-level trough and attendant cold front, strong storms could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening as low/midlevel flow strengthens, though generally weak instability could tend to limit severe potential. Uncertainty regarding the synoptic evolution on D4/Friday continues into D5/Saturday. However, there will be some potential for low-level moisture to be drawn northward into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, in advance of the cold front. Instability may remain quite weak, but rather strong flow could support convection with gusty-wind potential, if adequate prefrontal buoyancy can develop. For D6/Sunday and beyond, most guidance keeps richer low-level moisture confined near the Gulf Coast, which could generally limit severe potential across much of the CONUS. One possible exception is the High Plains vicinity, where modest low-level moisture return could support some increase in convective potential, especially if a northwesterly flow regime can be maintained between the deep eastern trough and an upper ridge that may become reestablished near the Four Corners region. However, predictability regarding synoptic details begins to substantially wane into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... On D4/Friday, on upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes region. In response, a surface low is forecast to deepen in the vicinity of the lower Great Lakes, though the timing and intensity of cyclogenesis continues to vary among extended-range guidance. Depending on the timing of the upper-level trough and attendant cold front, strong storms could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening as low/midlevel flow strengthens, though generally weak instability could tend to limit severe potential. Uncertainty regarding the synoptic evolution on D4/Friday continues into D5/Saturday. However, there will be some potential for low-level moisture to be drawn northward into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, in advance of the cold front. Instability may remain quite weak, but rather strong flow could support convection with gusty-wind potential, if adequate prefrontal buoyancy can develop. For D6/Sunday and beyond, most guidance keeps richer low-level moisture confined near the Gulf Coast, which could generally limit severe potential across much of the CONUS. One possible exception is the High Plains vicinity, where modest low-level moisture return could support some increase in convective potential, especially if a northwesterly flow regime can be maintained between the deep eastern trough and an upper ridge that may become reestablished near the Four Corners region. However, predictability regarding synoptic details begins to substantially wane into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... On D4/Friday, on upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes region. In response, a surface low is forecast to deepen in the vicinity of the lower Great Lakes, though the timing and intensity of cyclogenesis continues to vary among extended-range guidance. Depending on the timing of the upper-level trough and attendant cold front, strong storms could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening as low/midlevel flow strengthens, though generally weak instability could tend to limit severe potential. Uncertainty regarding the synoptic evolution on D4/Friday continues into D5/Saturday. However, there will be some potential for low-level moisture to be drawn northward into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, in advance of the cold front. Instability may remain quite weak, but rather strong flow could support convection with gusty-wind potential, if adequate prefrontal buoyancy can develop. For D6/Sunday and beyond, most guidance keeps richer low-level moisture confined near the Gulf Coast, which could generally limit severe potential across much of the CONUS. One possible exception is the High Plains vicinity, where modest low-level moisture return could support some increase in convective potential, especially if a northwesterly flow regime can be maintained between the deep eastern trough and an upper ridge that may become reestablished near the Four Corners region. However, predictability regarding synoptic details begins to substantially wane into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... On D4/Friday, on upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes region. In response, a surface low is forecast to deepen in the vicinity of the lower Great Lakes, though the timing and intensity of cyclogenesis continues to vary among extended-range guidance. Depending on the timing of the upper-level trough and attendant cold front, strong storms could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening as low/midlevel flow strengthens, though generally weak instability could tend to limit severe potential. Uncertainty regarding the synoptic evolution on D4/Friday continues into D5/Saturday. However, there will be some potential for low-level moisture to be drawn northward into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, in advance of the cold front. Instability may remain quite weak, but rather strong flow could support convection with gusty-wind potential, if adequate prefrontal buoyancy can develop. For D6/Sunday and beyond, most guidance keeps richer low-level moisture confined near the Gulf Coast, which could generally limit severe potential across much of the CONUS. One possible exception is the High Plains vicinity, where modest low-level moisture return could support some increase in convective potential, especially if a northwesterly flow regime can be maintained between the deep eastern trough and an upper ridge that may become reestablished near the Four Corners region. However, predictability regarding synoptic details begins to substantially wane into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... On D4/Friday, on upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes region. In response, a surface low is forecast to deepen in the vicinity of the lower Great Lakes, though the timing and intensity of cyclogenesis continues to vary among extended-range guidance. Depending on the timing of the upper-level trough and attendant cold front, strong storms could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening as low/midlevel flow strengthens, though generally weak instability could tend to limit severe potential. Uncertainty regarding the synoptic evolution on D4/Friday continues into D5/Saturday. However, there will be some potential for low-level moisture to be drawn northward into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, in advance of the cold front. Instability may remain quite weak, but rather strong flow could support convection with gusty-wind potential, if adequate prefrontal buoyancy can develop. For D6/Sunday and beyond, most guidance keeps richer low-level moisture confined near the Gulf Coast, which could generally limit severe potential across much of the CONUS. One possible exception is the High Plains vicinity, where modest low-level moisture return could support some increase in convective potential, especially if a northwesterly flow regime can be maintained between the deep eastern trough and an upper ridge that may become reestablished near the Four Corners region. However, predictability regarding synoptic details begins to substantially wane into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... On D4/Friday, on upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes region. In response, a surface low is forecast to deepen in the vicinity of the lower Great Lakes, though the timing and intensity of cyclogenesis continues to vary among extended-range guidance. Depending on the timing of the upper-level trough and attendant cold front, strong storms could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening as low/midlevel flow strengthens, though generally weak instability could tend to limit severe potential. Uncertainty regarding the synoptic evolution on D4/Friday continues into D5/Saturday. However, there will be some potential for low-level moisture to be drawn northward into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, in advance of the cold front. Instability may remain quite weak, but rather strong flow could support convection with gusty-wind potential, if adequate prefrontal buoyancy can develop. For D6/Sunday and beyond, most guidance keeps richer low-level moisture confined near the Gulf Coast, which could generally limit severe potential across much of the CONUS. One possible exception is the High Plains vicinity, where modest low-level moisture return could support some increase in convective potential, especially if a northwesterly flow regime can be maintained between the deep eastern trough and an upper ridge that may become reestablished near the Four Corners region. However, predictability regarding synoptic details begins to substantially wane into early next week. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the central/northern Great Plains into parts of the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. The trailing portion of the trough, associated with a weakening embedded shortwave, is forecast to move into the south-central High Plains during the day. A cold front is expected to continue moving southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Plains. ...South-central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Guidance continues to vary regarding both timing of the front and the magnitude of destabilization in its vicinity. Richer low-level moisture will remain confined near the Gulf Coast, but dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F will support at least modest destabilization during the afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front, and also potentially within a relatively moist post-frontal regime, with stronger drying expected to lag the initial wind shift. Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be relatively weak across the region where storm development is currently expected. If pockets of greater diurnal heating/destabilization can develop, and/or if somewhat stronger midlevel flow (associated with the amplifying upper trough) can impinge on areas of storm development, then some severe threat could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Confidence is currently too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the central/northern Great Plains into parts of the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. The trailing portion of the trough, associated with a weakening embedded shortwave, is forecast to move into the south-central High Plains during the day. A cold front is expected to continue moving southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Plains. ...South-central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Guidance continues to vary regarding both timing of the front and the magnitude of destabilization in its vicinity. Richer low-level moisture will remain confined near the Gulf Coast, but dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F will support at least modest destabilization during the afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front, and also potentially within a relatively moist post-frontal regime, with stronger drying expected to lag the initial wind shift. Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be relatively weak across the region where storm development is currently expected. If pockets of greater diurnal heating/destabilization can develop, and/or if somewhat stronger midlevel flow (associated with the amplifying upper trough) can impinge on areas of storm development, then some severe threat could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Confidence is currently too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the central/northern Great Plains into parts of the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. The trailing portion of the trough, associated with a weakening embedded shortwave, is forecast to move into the south-central High Plains during the day. A cold front is expected to continue moving southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Plains. ...South-central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Guidance continues to vary regarding both timing of the front and the magnitude of destabilization in its vicinity. Richer low-level moisture will remain confined near the Gulf Coast, but dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F will support at least modest destabilization during the afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front, and also potentially within a relatively moist post-frontal regime, with stronger drying expected to lag the initial wind shift. Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be relatively weak across the region where storm development is currently expected. If pockets of greater diurnal heating/destabilization can develop, and/or if somewhat stronger midlevel flow (associated with the amplifying upper trough) can impinge on areas of storm development, then some severe threat could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Confidence is currently too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the central/northern Great Plains into parts of the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. The trailing portion of the trough, associated with a weakening embedded shortwave, is forecast to move into the south-central High Plains during the day. A cold front is expected to continue moving southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Plains. ...South-central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Guidance continues to vary regarding both timing of the front and the magnitude of destabilization in its vicinity. Richer low-level moisture will remain confined near the Gulf Coast, but dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F will support at least modest destabilization during the afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front, and also potentially within a relatively moist post-frontal regime, with stronger drying expected to lag the initial wind shift. Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be relatively weak across the region where storm development is currently expected. If pockets of greater diurnal heating/destabilization can develop, and/or if somewhat stronger midlevel flow (associated with the amplifying upper trough) can impinge on areas of storm development, then some severe threat could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Confidence is currently too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the central/northern Great Plains into parts of the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. The trailing portion of the trough, associated with a weakening embedded shortwave, is forecast to move into the south-central High Plains during the day. A cold front is expected to continue moving southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest into the central/southern Plains. ...South-central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Guidance continues to vary regarding both timing of the front and the magnitude of destabilization in its vicinity. Richer low-level moisture will remain confined near the Gulf Coast, but dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F will support at least modest destabilization during the afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front, and also potentially within a relatively moist post-frontal regime, with stronger drying expected to lag the initial wind shift. Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be relatively weak across the region where storm development is currently expected. If pockets of greater diurnal heating/destabilization can develop, and/or if somewhat stronger midlevel flow (associated with the amplifying upper trough) can impinge on areas of storm development, then some severe threat could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Confidence is currently too low to include probabilities. ..Dean.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper-level low currently over parts of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to de-amplify and drift east into the Plains. As this occurs, weak ascent will support widespread cloud cover as well as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central Rockies to central Plains. The surface pressure trough currently in place along the High Plains will shift east/southeast through the day, and while breezy conditions are likely just ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture return into the Plains will modulate diurnal RH reductions. Across the West, building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. Consequently, the potential for elevated fire weather concerns appears limited with no highlights required. ..Moore.. 09/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more