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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE GROUPING ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal mid-level flow, with several embedded perturbations, is expected across the CONUS Monday. Pacific troughing and onshore flow behind a cold front will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest. A surface anticyclone should move into the Upper Midwest, as shortwave ridging builds south across the MS Valley. Broad mid-level troughing will continue over the East as a slow-moving cold front makes its way toward the coast. Scattered showers and isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast. ...Carolinas and the Southeast.... Broad troughing over the eastern CONUS will encourage zonal flow aloft atop a slow-moving cold front across the Southeast. Widespread clouds and ongoing precipitation are expected east of the front given relatively abundant surface moisture and weak ascent. This will tend to limit buoyancy and lapse rates across much of the region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, focused early in the convective cycle, primarily across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Gulf Coast/FL. However, with weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, severe storms appear unlikely. ...Pacific Northwest... As the shortwave trough and the trailing cold front move onshore, steepening low-level lapse rates beneath the cold core aloft may result in enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms across coastal WA/OR and far northern CA. While not overly favorable, some model guidance shows MUCAPE on the order of 200-400 J/kg sufficient for stronger, low-topped convection. Any lightning that does develop should remain isolated and become increasingly infrequent farther inland where cool surface temperatures will promote strong stability. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE GROUPING ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal mid-level flow, with several embedded perturbations, is expected across the CONUS Monday. Pacific troughing and onshore flow behind a cold front will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest. A surface anticyclone should move into the Upper Midwest, as shortwave ridging builds south across the MS Valley. Broad mid-level troughing will continue over the East as a slow-moving cold front makes its way toward the coast. Scattered showers and isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast. ...Carolinas and the Southeast.... Broad troughing over the eastern CONUS will encourage zonal flow aloft atop a slow-moving cold front across the Southeast. Widespread clouds and ongoing precipitation are expected east of the front given relatively abundant surface moisture and weak ascent. This will tend to limit buoyancy and lapse rates across much of the region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, focused early in the convective cycle, primarily across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Gulf Coast/FL. However, with weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, severe storms appear unlikely. ...Pacific Northwest... As the shortwave trough and the trailing cold front move onshore, steepening low-level lapse rates beneath the cold core aloft may result in enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms across coastal WA/OR and far northern CA. While not overly favorable, some model guidance shows MUCAPE on the order of 200-400 J/kg sufficient for stronger, low-topped convection. Any lightning that does develop should remain isolated and become increasingly infrequent farther inland where cool surface temperatures will promote strong stability. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes needed to ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Sunday. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes needed to ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Sunday. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes needed to ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Sunday. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes needed to ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Sunday. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes needed to ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Sunday. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes needed to ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Sunday. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal mid-level flow, with several embedded perturbations, is expected across the CONUS Monday. Pacific troughing and onshore flow behind a cold front will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest. A surface anticyclone should move into the Upper Midwest, as shortwave ridging builds south across the MS Valley. Broad mid-level troughing will continue over the East as a slow-moving cold front makes its way toward the coast. Scattered showers and isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast. ...Carolinas and the Southeast.... Broad troughing over the eastern CONUS will encourage zonal flow aloft atop a slow-moving cold front across the Southeast. Widespread clouds and ongoing precipitation are expected east of the front given relatively abundant surface moisture and weak ascent. This will tend to limit buoyancy and lapse rates across much of the region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, focused early in the convective cycle, primarily across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Gulf Coast/FL. However, with weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, severe storms appear unlikely. ...Pacific Northwest... As the shortwave trough and the trailing cold front move onshore, steepening low-level lapse rates beneath the cold core aloft may result in enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms across coastal WA/OR and far northern CA. While not overly favorable, some model guidance shows MUCAPE on the order of 200-400 J/kg sufficient for stronger, low-topped convection. Any lightning that does develop should remain isolated and become increasingly infrequent farther inland where cool surface temperatures will promote strong stability. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more