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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. A small region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of coastal southern New England where gusts of 15 mph with RH below 30%. Winds across southern California are expected to be mainly light, precluding the need for inclusion of any areas. ..Thornton.. 11/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. A small region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of coastal southern New England where gusts of 15 mph with RH below 30%. Winds across southern California are expected to be mainly light, precluding the need for inclusion of any areas. ..Thornton.. 11/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. A small region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of coastal southern New England where gusts of 15 mph with RH below 30%. Winds across southern California are expected to be mainly light, precluding the need for inclusion of any areas. ..Thornton.. 11/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and its attendant surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest at 12Z Sunday will progress east, reaching the Ottawa Valley by early morning Monday. A surface front, trailing southwestward, will sink slowly southeast over the OH Valley to Mid-South and remain quasi-stationary over the Ark-La-Tex. A confined low-level warm/moist conveyor will support a threat for elevated thunderstorms from the Mid-South to the OH Valley. Surface-based storms will be possible southwestward to the western/central Gulf Coast. Poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will preclude severe storms. Across south FL, as moisture increases within a southeasterly low-level flow regime, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night. ..Grams.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and its attendant surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest at 12Z Sunday will progress east, reaching the Ottawa Valley by early morning Monday. A surface front, trailing southwestward, will sink slowly southeast over the OH Valley to Mid-South and remain quasi-stationary over the Ark-La-Tex. A confined low-level warm/moist conveyor will support a threat for elevated thunderstorms from the Mid-South to the OH Valley. Surface-based storms will be possible southwestward to the western/central Gulf Coast. Poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will preclude severe storms. Across south FL, as moisture increases within a southeasterly low-level flow regime, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night. ..Grams.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and its attendant surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest at 12Z Sunday will progress east, reaching the Ottawa Valley by early morning Monday. A surface front, trailing southwestward, will sink slowly southeast over the OH Valley to Mid-South and remain quasi-stationary over the Ark-La-Tex. A confined low-level warm/moist conveyor will support a threat for elevated thunderstorms from the Mid-South to the OH Valley. Surface-based storms will be possible southwestward to the western/central Gulf Coast. Poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will preclude severe storms. Across south FL, as moisture increases within a southeasterly low-level flow regime, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night. ..Grams.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and its attendant surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest at 12Z Sunday will progress east, reaching the Ottawa Valley by early morning Monday. A surface front, trailing southwestward, will sink slowly southeast over the OH Valley to Mid-South and remain quasi-stationary over the Ark-La-Tex. A confined low-level warm/moist conveyor will support a threat for elevated thunderstorms from the Mid-South to the OH Valley. Surface-based storms will be possible southwestward to the western/central Gulf Coast. Poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will preclude severe storms. Across south FL, as moisture increases within a southeasterly low-level flow regime, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night. ..Grams.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and its attendant surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest at 12Z Sunday will progress east, reaching the Ottawa Valley by early morning Monday. A surface front, trailing southwestward, will sink slowly southeast over the OH Valley to Mid-South and remain quasi-stationary over the Ark-La-Tex. A confined low-level warm/moist conveyor will support a threat for elevated thunderstorms from the Mid-South to the OH Valley. Surface-based storms will be possible southwestward to the western/central Gulf Coast. Poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will preclude severe storms. Across south FL, as moisture increases within a southeasterly low-level flow regime, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night. ..Grams.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today across a broad corridor surrounding the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level low will move northeastward into the central Plains today, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a low will move northward through the central Plains, as an occluded front extends southeastward into the Ozarks. From there, a quasi-stationary front will be located from western Arkansas into southeast Texas. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of these two boundaries, with surface dewpoints ranging from the 50s F across the Ozarks to near 70 F in the lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of this moist airmass today, but instability will be too weak for a severe threat. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today across a broad corridor surrounding the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level low will move northeastward into the central Plains today, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a low will move northward through the central Plains, as an occluded front extends southeastward into the Ozarks. From there, a quasi-stationary front will be located from western Arkansas into southeast Texas. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of these two boundaries, with surface dewpoints ranging from the 50s F across the Ozarks to near 70 F in the lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of this moist airmass today, but instability will be too weak for a severe threat. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today across a broad corridor surrounding the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level low will move northeastward into the central Plains today, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a low will move northward through the central Plains, as an occluded front extends southeastward into the Ozarks. From there, a quasi-stationary front will be located from western Arkansas into southeast Texas. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of these two boundaries, with surface dewpoints ranging from the 50s F across the Ozarks to near 70 F in the lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of this moist airmass today, but instability will be too weak for a severe threat. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today across a broad corridor surrounding the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level low will move northeastward into the central Plains today, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a low will move northward through the central Plains, as an occluded front extends southeastward into the Ozarks. From there, a quasi-stationary front will be located from western Arkansas into southeast Texas. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of these two boundaries, with surface dewpoints ranging from the 50s F across the Ozarks to near 70 F in the lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of this moist airmass today, but instability will be too weak for a severe threat. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today across a broad corridor surrounding the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level low will move northeastward into the central Plains today, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a low will move northward through the central Plains, as an occluded front extends southeastward into the Ozarks. From there, a quasi-stationary front will be located from western Arkansas into southeast Texas. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of these two boundaries, with surface dewpoints ranging from the 50s F across the Ozarks to near 70 F in the lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of this moist airmass today, but instability will be too weak for a severe threat. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/09/2024 Read more

WW 0708 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CLL TO 35 NNE CRS AND 35 NNE CLL TO 20 SE CRS. WW 708 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09/03Z. ..KERR..11/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC161-090300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREESTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 708 TORNADO OK TX 081950Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 708 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma North and North-Central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Bands of severe storms, and potentially a few semi-discrete supercells, should continue to develop regionally through mid/late afternoon, with the strongest storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Fort Sill OK to 20 miles east southeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 21035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2223 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 708... FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Areas affected...northern/eastern Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 708... Valid 090040Z - 090215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 708 continues. SUMMARY...Marginal risk for wind/hail continues. A downstream watch is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms is ongoing across a front crossing through northeastern Texas, with a few cells ahead of the line. Trends have continued to favor weakening thunderstorm activity, with occasional weakly organized cells ahead of the line. Overall, the severe risk has been mitigated by displacement of better forcing aloft and shear to the north across far northern Texas/southern Oklahoma away from surface-based instability. A few instances of hail and damaging wind may be possible with cells ahead of the line through the next couple of hours. Overall, the risk remains isolated and a downstream watch is unlikely to be needed at this time. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 11/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 32629686 33179679 33459563 33419514 33089448 32059427 31229435 30619466 30239495 30029562 29969617 30039661 30109699 32629686 Read more

WW 0708 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CLL TO 35 NNE CRS. ..KERR..11/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC161-257-349-090240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREESTONE KAUFMAN NAVARRO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms, with a potential for hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible this evening across parts of east Texas. ...East Texas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over far northeastern New Mexico, with a broad band of maximized mid-level moisture located from the Ark-La-Tex extending northwestward into the central Plains. At the southern end of this band, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in parts of east Texas, ahead of a front this is moving into east Texas. These storms are located along and near an axis of instability, where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. The RAP has MLCAPE maximized around 1600 J/kg in southeast Texas, with the strongest instability extending northward to just southeast of Dallas. A cluster of storms is located to the north of the instability maximum, along an axis with locally higher surface dewpoints near a max in precipitable water. RAP forecast soundings near the max have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with some directional shear in the lowest kilometer. The combination of instability and shear may be enough to continue a marginal severe threat this evening, mainly with the more discrete cells ahead of the front. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. The severe threat is expected to diminish by late evening. ..Broyles.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms, with a potential for hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible this evening across parts of east Texas. ...East Texas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over far northeastern New Mexico, with a broad band of maximized mid-level moisture located from the Ark-La-Tex extending northwestward into the central Plains. At the southern end of this band, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in parts of east Texas, ahead of a front this is moving into east Texas. These storms are located along and near an axis of instability, where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. The RAP has MLCAPE maximized around 1600 J/kg in southeast Texas, with the strongest instability extending northward to just southeast of Dallas. A cluster of storms is located to the north of the instability maximum, along an axis with locally higher surface dewpoints near a max in precipitable water. RAP forecast soundings near the max have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with some directional shear in the lowest kilometer. The combination of instability and shear may be enough to continue a marginal severe threat this evening, mainly with the more discrete cells ahead of the front. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. The severe threat is expected to diminish by late evening. ..Broyles.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms, with a potential for hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible this evening across parts of east Texas. ...East Texas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over far northeastern New Mexico, with a broad band of maximized mid-level moisture located from the Ark-La-Tex extending northwestward into the central Plains. At the southern end of this band, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in parts of east Texas, ahead of a front this is moving into east Texas. These storms are located along and near an axis of instability, where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. The RAP has MLCAPE maximized around 1600 J/kg in southeast Texas, with the strongest instability extending northward to just southeast of Dallas. A cluster of storms is located to the north of the instability maximum, along an axis with locally higher surface dewpoints near a max in precipitable water. RAP forecast soundings near the max have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with some directional shear in the lowest kilometer. The combination of instability and shear may be enough to continue a marginal severe threat this evening, mainly with the more discrete cells ahead of the front. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. The severe threat is expected to diminish by late evening. ..Broyles.. 11/09/2024 Read more