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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

MD 2220 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Areas affected...North Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081918Z - 082115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm organization/intensity will continue over the next couple of hours. WW may become necessary later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a loosely organized band of storms along a north-south surface cold front bisecting Texas at this time, with weaker/elevated convection to the cool side of the boundary. Over the past hour or so, an increase in storm organization has occurred over the Big Country/western North Texas, where a narrow frontal band is now crossing Young and eastern Stephens/western Palo Pinto counties at this time. The pre-frontal environment across North Texas is characterized by a moist boundary layer, but with weak lapse rates aloft -- in part due to persistent/ongoing precipitation. Despite the marginal thermodynamic conditions however, flow veering and gradually increasing with height is contributing to shear profiles favorable for updrafts to organize -- even in spite of the less favorable thermodynamics. As such, as storms strengthen gradually this afternoon, in part due to weak/filtered heating and thus modest additional destabilization, severe risk -- mainly in the form of damaging winds and marginal hail, but also possibly including a tornado or two -- is expected to materialize. Greater tornado threat would likely require a more cellular pre-frontal warm sector storm mode, which seems rather unlikely at this time. As such, tornado threat should be confined to more weak/brief QCLS-type circulations. ..Goss/Guyer.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33219833 33609803 33469745 33029685 31849684 31299737 31399793 32649841 33219833 Read more

WW 0708 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0708 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0708 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0708 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 8 19:21:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...19z Update... A small Elevated has been added to portions of coastal southern New England for brief fire-weather conditions Saturday. A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass may allow transient overlap of wind gusts of 15+ mph with RH below 30%. Winds will quickly weaken into the late afternoon and evening, but low RH may linger. Given the state of dry fuels, an isolated fire-weather risk is possible. Elsewhere, dry conditions will likely persist over the Mid Atlantic and parts of southern California. However, surface winds are not expected to be strong enough to support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low across the CONUS on Saturday. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. Both of these regions will be under building high pressure, keeping winds mostly light and fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...19z Update... A small Elevated has been added to portions of coastal southern New England for brief fire-weather conditions Saturday. A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass may allow transient overlap of wind gusts of 15+ mph with RH below 30%. Winds will quickly weaken into the late afternoon and evening, but low RH may linger. Given the state of dry fuels, an isolated fire-weather risk is possible. Elsewhere, dry conditions will likely persist over the Mid Atlantic and parts of southern California. However, surface winds are not expected to be strong enough to support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low across the CONUS on Saturday. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. Both of these regions will be under building high pressure, keeping winds mostly light and fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more