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WW 0708 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW TPL TO 35 NNW FTW TO 40 W ADM TO 25 S CHK. ..KERR..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-067-085-137-082340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER JEFFERSON LOVE STEPHENS TXC027-085-097-113-121-139-145-161-181-217-251-257-293-309-349- 397-439-082340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL COLLIN COOKE DALLAS DENTON ELLIS FALLS FREESTONE GRAYSON HILL JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO ROCKWALL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0708 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW TPL TO 35 W ACT TO 20 NE MWL TO 30 E SPS TO 20 SW CHK. ..GOSS..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-067-085-137-082240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER JEFFERSON LOVE STEPHENS TXC027-035-085-097-099-113-121-139-145-161-181-217-221-251-257- 293-309-337-349-367-397-425-439-497-082240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE COLLIN COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DENTON ELLIS FALLS FREESTONE GRAYSON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MONTAGUE NAVARRO PARKER ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT WISE Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more