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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The current forecast remains on track. ... Greater Southern New England Area ... A very dry airmass remains in place across the region, with afternoon relative humidity values falling below 30%. Couple this very dry and receptive fuels, the overall fire environment will be susceptible to fire starts. The mitigating factor for extreme fire behavior will be light northerly winds. Across coastal regions of southern New England, a better overlap of warm temperatures and slightly stronger winds will exist. Thus, the elevated area was kept. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. A small region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of coastal southern New England where gusts of 15 mph with RH below 30%. Winds across southern California are expected to be mainly light, precluding the need for inclusion of any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The current forecast remains on track. ... Greater Southern New England Area ... A very dry airmass remains in place across the region, with afternoon relative humidity values falling below 30%. Couple this very dry and receptive fuels, the overall fire environment will be susceptible to fire starts. The mitigating factor for extreme fire behavior will be light northerly winds. Across coastal regions of southern New England, a better overlap of warm temperatures and slightly stronger winds will exist. Thus, the elevated area was kept. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. A small region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of coastal southern New England where gusts of 15 mph with RH below 30%. Winds across southern California are expected to be mainly light, precluding the need for inclusion of any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The current forecast remains on track. ... Greater Southern New England Area ... A very dry airmass remains in place across the region, with afternoon relative humidity values falling below 30%. Couple this very dry and receptive fuels, the overall fire environment will be susceptible to fire starts. The mitigating factor for extreme fire behavior will be light northerly winds. Across coastal regions of southern New England, a better overlap of warm temperatures and slightly stronger winds will exist. Thus, the elevated area was kept. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. A small region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of coastal southern New England where gusts of 15 mph with RH below 30%. Winds across southern California are expected to be mainly light, precluding the need for inclusion of any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The current forecast remains on track. ... Greater Southern New England Area ... A very dry airmass remains in place across the region, with afternoon relative humidity values falling below 30%. Couple this very dry and receptive fuels, the overall fire environment will be susceptible to fire starts. The mitigating factor for extreme fire behavior will be light northerly winds. Across coastal regions of southern New England, a better overlap of warm temperatures and slightly stronger winds will exist. Thus, the elevated area was kept. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. A small region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of coastal southern New England where gusts of 15 mph with RH below 30%. Winds across southern California are expected to be mainly light, precluding the need for inclusion of any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The current forecast remains on track. ... Greater Southern New England Area ... A very dry airmass remains in place across the region, with afternoon relative humidity values falling below 30%. Couple this very dry and receptive fuels, the overall fire environment will be susceptible to fire starts. The mitigating factor for extreme fire behavior will be light northerly winds. Across coastal regions of southern New England, a better overlap of warm temperatures and slightly stronger winds will exist. Thus, the elevated area was kept. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. A small region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of coastal southern New England where gusts of 15 mph with RH below 30%. Winds across southern California are expected to be mainly light, precluding the need for inclusion of any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The current forecast remains on track. ... Greater Southern New England Area ... A very dry airmass remains in place across the region, with afternoon relative humidity values falling below 30%. Couple this very dry and receptive fuels, the overall fire environment will be susceptible to fire starts. The mitigating factor for extreme fire behavior will be light northerly winds. Across coastal regions of southern New England, a better overlap of warm temperatures and slightly stronger winds will exist. Thus, the elevated area was kept. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. A small region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of coastal southern New England where gusts of 15 mph with RH below 30%. Winds across southern California are expected to be mainly light, precluding the need for inclusion of any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern across the CONUS will lose amplitude through the period, as a synoptic-scale cyclone now centered near GLD weakens, ejects northeastward, and rejoins the prevailing westerlies. The associated 500-mb low should reach central NE by 00Z, then across northwestern IA by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, the NHC forecasts Hurricane Rafael to move slowly west-northwest across the west-central Gulf through tonight, remaining far from land, while weakening due to deep shear and dry-air involvement. In between, a plume of partly modified return-flow air, marginally moist/unstable for deep convection, will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in a broad swath from the TX/LA Gulf Coast to parts of IA/IN and much of IL. Effective inflow to convection in this swath should be elevated over the mid Mississippi Valley and similar latitudes, where deep shear is greatest. As shear weakens with southward extent from the Mid-South to the coast, especially south of a warm front now over north-central LA, surface-based parcels amid weak lapse rates will prevail. By afternoon, the warm front will angle northward into parts of eastern AR, and MLCAPE should range from around 500 J/kg over the Mid-South to near 1000 J/kg just inland from the coast. Organized severe potential will be stunted by lack of stronger lift and shear where buoyancy is sufficient. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern across the CONUS will lose amplitude through the period, as a synoptic-scale cyclone now centered near GLD weakens, ejects northeastward, and rejoins the prevailing westerlies. The associated 500-mb low should reach central NE by 00Z, then across northwestern IA by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, the NHC forecasts Hurricane Rafael to move slowly west-northwest across the west-central Gulf through tonight, remaining far from land, while weakening due to deep shear and dry-air involvement. In between, a plume of partly modified return-flow air, marginally moist/unstable for deep convection, will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in a broad swath from the TX/LA Gulf Coast to parts of IA/IN and much of IL. Effective inflow to convection in this swath should be elevated over the mid Mississippi Valley and similar latitudes, where deep shear is greatest. As shear weakens with southward extent from the Mid-South to the coast, especially south of a warm front now over north-central LA, surface-based parcels amid weak lapse rates will prevail. By afternoon, the warm front will angle northward into parts of eastern AR, and MLCAPE should range from around 500 J/kg over the Mid-South to near 1000 J/kg just inland from the coast. Organized severe potential will be stunted by lack of stronger lift and shear where buoyancy is sufficient. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern across the CONUS will lose amplitude through the period, as a synoptic-scale cyclone now centered near GLD weakens, ejects northeastward, and rejoins the prevailing westerlies. The associated 500-mb low should reach central NE by 00Z, then across northwestern IA by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, the NHC forecasts Hurricane Rafael to move slowly west-northwest across the west-central Gulf through tonight, remaining far from land, while weakening due to deep shear and dry-air involvement. In between, a plume of partly modified return-flow air, marginally moist/unstable for deep convection, will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in a broad swath from the TX/LA Gulf Coast to parts of IA/IN and much of IL. Effective inflow to convection in this swath should be elevated over the mid Mississippi Valley and similar latitudes, where deep shear is greatest. As shear weakens with southward extent from the Mid-South to the coast, especially south of a warm front now over north-central LA, surface-based parcels amid weak lapse rates will prevail. By afternoon, the warm front will angle northward into parts of eastern AR, and MLCAPE should range from around 500 J/kg over the Mid-South to near 1000 J/kg just inland from the coast. Organized severe potential will be stunted by lack of stronger lift and shear where buoyancy is sufficient. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern across the CONUS will lose amplitude through the period, as a synoptic-scale cyclone now centered near GLD weakens, ejects northeastward, and rejoins the prevailing westerlies. The associated 500-mb low should reach central NE by 00Z, then across northwestern IA by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, the NHC forecasts Hurricane Rafael to move slowly west-northwest across the west-central Gulf through tonight, remaining far from land, while weakening due to deep shear and dry-air involvement. In between, a plume of partly modified return-flow air, marginally moist/unstable for deep convection, will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in a broad swath from the TX/LA Gulf Coast to parts of IA/IN and much of IL. Effective inflow to convection in this swath should be elevated over the mid Mississippi Valley and similar latitudes, where deep shear is greatest. As shear weakens with southward extent from the Mid-South to the coast, especially south of a warm front now over north-central LA, surface-based parcels amid weak lapse rates will prevail. By afternoon, the warm front will angle northward into parts of eastern AR, and MLCAPE should range from around 500 J/kg over the Mid-South to near 1000 J/kg just inland from the coast. Organized severe potential will be stunted by lack of stronger lift and shear where buoyancy is sufficient. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/09/2024 Read more