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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Southeast... Isolated, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the Carolina Coastal Plain. Weak tropospheric lapse rates will be a limiting factor to updraft intensity. Low-level flow will become increasingly veered during the day, yielding a predominately zonal flow regime. This should result in thunder potential shifting entirely offshore around midday. A few thunderstorms embedded within a corridor of slow-moving convection will be possible along a portion of the central Gulf Coast, before activity gradually wanes during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across a portion of south FL during the afternoon. ...Western WA/OR and northern CA... A leading shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front should move onshore Monday morning. In its wake, low to mid-level lapse rates will steepen amid meager buoyancy. An upstream shortwave impulse and persistent onshore low-level winds should support scattered, low-topped convection. Some of this will be sufficiently deep to foster sporadic lightning through Monday evening. Thunderstorm probabilities will diminish Monday night as the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates shifts farther inland. ..Grams.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Southeast... Isolated, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the Carolina Coastal Plain. Weak tropospheric lapse rates will be a limiting factor to updraft intensity. Low-level flow will become increasingly veered during the day, yielding a predominately zonal flow regime. This should result in thunder potential shifting entirely offshore around midday. A few thunderstorms embedded within a corridor of slow-moving convection will be possible along a portion of the central Gulf Coast, before activity gradually wanes during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across a portion of south FL during the afternoon. ...Western WA/OR and northern CA... A leading shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front should move onshore Monday morning. In its wake, low to mid-level lapse rates will steepen amid meager buoyancy. An upstream shortwave impulse and persistent onshore low-level winds should support scattered, low-topped convection. Some of this will be sufficiently deep to foster sporadic lightning through Monday evening. Thunderstorm probabilities will diminish Monday night as the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates shifts farther inland. ..Grams.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Southeast... Isolated, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the Carolina Coastal Plain. Weak tropospheric lapse rates will be a limiting factor to updraft intensity. Low-level flow will become increasingly veered during the day, yielding a predominately zonal flow regime. This should result in thunder potential shifting entirely offshore around midday. A few thunderstorms embedded within a corridor of slow-moving convection will be possible along a portion of the central Gulf Coast, before activity gradually wanes during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across a portion of south FL during the afternoon. ...Western WA/OR and northern CA... A leading shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front should move onshore Monday morning. In its wake, low to mid-level lapse rates will steepen amid meager buoyancy. An upstream shortwave impulse and persistent onshore low-level winds should support scattered, low-topped convection. Some of this will be sufficiently deep to foster sporadic lightning through Monday evening. Thunderstorm probabilities will diminish Monday night as the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates shifts farther inland. ..Grams.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Southeast... Isolated, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the Carolina Coastal Plain. Weak tropospheric lapse rates will be a limiting factor to updraft intensity. Low-level flow will become increasingly veered during the day, yielding a predominately zonal flow regime. This should result in thunder potential shifting entirely offshore around midday. A few thunderstorms embedded within a corridor of slow-moving convection will be possible along a portion of the central Gulf Coast, before activity gradually wanes during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across a portion of south FL during the afternoon. ...Western WA/OR and northern CA... A leading shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front should move onshore Monday morning. In its wake, low to mid-level lapse rates will steepen amid meager buoyancy. An upstream shortwave impulse and persistent onshore low-level winds should support scattered, low-topped convection. Some of this will be sufficiently deep to foster sporadic lightning through Monday evening. Thunderstorm probabilities will diminish Monday night as the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates shifts farther inland. ..Grams.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland across the western US on Monday, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across the Great Basin in addition to potential for rain/snow showers. An increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in the region are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland across the western US on Monday, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across the Great Basin in addition to potential for rain/snow showers. An increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in the region are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland across the western US on Monday, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across the Great Basin in addition to potential for rain/snow showers. An increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in the region are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland across the western US on Monday, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across the Great Basin in addition to potential for rain/snow showers. An increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in the region are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland across the western US on Monday, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across the Great Basin in addition to potential for rain/snow showers. An increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in the region are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal today across the CONUS. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Some briefly Elevated conditions are possible in the Northeast ahead of the approaching front, but wetting rainfall will be expected by the afternoon. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal today across the CONUS. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Some briefly Elevated conditions are possible in the Northeast ahead of the approaching front, but wetting rainfall will be expected by the afternoon. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal today across the CONUS. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Some briefly Elevated conditions are possible in the Northeast ahead of the approaching front, but wetting rainfall will be expected by the afternoon. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal today across the CONUS. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Some briefly Elevated conditions are possible in the Northeast ahead of the approaching front, but wetting rainfall will be expected by the afternoon. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal today across the CONUS. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Some briefly Elevated conditions are possible in the Northeast ahead of the approaching front, but wetting rainfall will be expected by the afternoon. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that low-amplitude ridging will build in mid/upper levels across the northern Mexican Plateau through portions of the southern Great Plains and eastern Gulf Coast states during this period. Otherwise, the leading edge of a stronger/more progressive belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it appears that a remnant low, which has recently emerged from the Southwest, will accelerate rapidly eastward across the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes, in advance of an approaching short wave impulse digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies. This may be accompanied by appreciable surface cyclogenesis across and northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight. While the trailing cold front will be preceded by a moistening southerly low-level return flow across the lower Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region, forecast soundings indicate that weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and a residual cool/stable surface-based layer will inhibit destabilization through much of the evolving warm sector. ...Mid South/Tennessee Valley vicinity... South of the more substantively deepening surface troughing to the north-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley, models do indicate that low-level moistening may contribute to a corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across northern Mississippi through western Tennessee and adjacent western Kentucky by early this afternoon. This probably will be limited by warm layers aloft, but CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg and contribute to gradually intensifying thunderstorm development through mid/late afternoon. Beneath 35-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, deep-layer shear may contribute to organization. However, thermodynamic profiles do not appear particularly conducive to severe hail, and modest to weak low-level flow and lapse rates still seem likely to limit the risk for severe wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that low-amplitude ridging will build in mid/upper levels across the northern Mexican Plateau through portions of the southern Great Plains and eastern Gulf Coast states during this period. Otherwise, the leading edge of a stronger/more progressive belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it appears that a remnant low, which has recently emerged from the Southwest, will accelerate rapidly eastward across the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes, in advance of an approaching short wave impulse digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies. This may be accompanied by appreciable surface cyclogenesis across and northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight. While the trailing cold front will be preceded by a moistening southerly low-level return flow across the lower Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region, forecast soundings indicate that weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and a residual cool/stable surface-based layer will inhibit destabilization through much of the evolving warm sector. ...Mid South/Tennessee Valley vicinity... South of the more substantively deepening surface troughing to the north-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley, models do indicate that low-level moistening may contribute to a corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across northern Mississippi through western Tennessee and adjacent western Kentucky by early this afternoon. This probably will be limited by warm layers aloft, but CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg and contribute to gradually intensifying thunderstorm development through mid/late afternoon. Beneath 35-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, deep-layer shear may contribute to organization. However, thermodynamic profiles do not appear particularly conducive to severe hail, and modest to weak low-level flow and lapse rates still seem likely to limit the risk for severe wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that low-amplitude ridging will build in mid/upper levels across the northern Mexican Plateau through portions of the southern Great Plains and eastern Gulf Coast states during this period. Otherwise, the leading edge of a stronger/more progressive belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it appears that a remnant low, which has recently emerged from the Southwest, will accelerate rapidly eastward across the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes, in advance of an approaching short wave impulse digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies. This may be accompanied by appreciable surface cyclogenesis across and northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight. While the trailing cold front will be preceded by a moistening southerly low-level return flow across the lower Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region, forecast soundings indicate that weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and a residual cool/stable surface-based layer will inhibit destabilization through much of the evolving warm sector. ...Mid South/Tennessee Valley vicinity... South of the more substantively deepening surface troughing to the north-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley, models do indicate that low-level moistening may contribute to a corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across northern Mississippi through western Tennessee and adjacent western Kentucky by early this afternoon. This probably will be limited by warm layers aloft, but CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg and contribute to gradually intensifying thunderstorm development through mid/late afternoon. Beneath 35-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, deep-layer shear may contribute to organization. However, thermodynamic profiles do not appear particularly conducive to severe hail, and modest to weak low-level flow and lapse rates still seem likely to limit the risk for severe wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that low-amplitude ridging will build in mid/upper levels across the northern Mexican Plateau through portions of the southern Great Plains and eastern Gulf Coast states during this period. Otherwise, the leading edge of a stronger/more progressive belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it appears that a remnant low, which has recently emerged from the Southwest, will accelerate rapidly eastward across the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes, in advance of an approaching short wave impulse digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies. This may be accompanied by appreciable surface cyclogenesis across and northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight. While the trailing cold front will be preceded by a moistening southerly low-level return flow across the lower Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region, forecast soundings indicate that weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and a residual cool/stable surface-based layer will inhibit destabilization through much of the evolving warm sector. ...Mid South/Tennessee Valley vicinity... South of the more substantively deepening surface troughing to the north-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley, models do indicate that low-level moistening may contribute to a corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across northern Mississippi through western Tennessee and adjacent western Kentucky by early this afternoon. This probably will be limited by warm layers aloft, but CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg and contribute to gradually intensifying thunderstorm development through mid/late afternoon. Beneath 35-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, deep-layer shear may contribute to organization. However, thermodynamic profiles do not appear particularly conducive to severe hail, and modest to weak low-level flow and lapse rates still seem likely to limit the risk for severe wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that low-amplitude ridging will build in mid/upper levels across the northern Mexican Plateau through portions of the southern Great Plains and eastern Gulf Coast states during this period. Otherwise, the leading edge of a stronger/more progressive belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it appears that a remnant low, which has recently emerged from the Southwest, will accelerate rapidly eastward across the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes, in advance of an approaching short wave impulse digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies. This may be accompanied by appreciable surface cyclogenesis across and northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight. While the trailing cold front will be preceded by a moistening southerly low-level return flow across the lower Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region, forecast soundings indicate that weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and a residual cool/stable surface-based layer will inhibit destabilization through much of the evolving warm sector. ...Mid South/Tennessee Valley vicinity... South of the more substantively deepening surface troughing to the north-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley, models do indicate that low-level moistening may contribute to a corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across northern Mississippi through western Tennessee and adjacent western Kentucky by early this afternoon. This probably will be limited by warm layers aloft, but CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg and contribute to gradually intensifying thunderstorm development through mid/late afternoon. Beneath 35-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, deep-layer shear may contribute to organization. However, thermodynamic profiles do not appear particularly conducive to severe hail, and modest to weak low-level flow and lapse rates still seem likely to limit the risk for severe wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that low-amplitude ridging will build in mid/upper levels across the northern Mexican Plateau through portions of the southern Great Plains and eastern Gulf Coast states during this period. Otherwise, the leading edge of a stronger/more progressive belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it appears that a remnant low, which has recently emerged from the Southwest, will accelerate rapidly eastward across the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes, in advance of an approaching short wave impulse digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies. This may be accompanied by appreciable surface cyclogenesis across and northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight. While the trailing cold front will be preceded by a moistening southerly low-level return flow across the lower Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region, forecast soundings indicate that weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and a residual cool/stable surface-based layer will inhibit destabilization through much of the evolving warm sector. ...Mid South/Tennessee Valley vicinity... South of the more substantively deepening surface troughing to the north-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley, models do indicate that low-level moistening may contribute to a corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across northern Mississippi through western Tennessee and adjacent western Kentucky by early this afternoon. This probably will be limited by warm layers aloft, but CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg and contribute to gradually intensifying thunderstorm development through mid/late afternoon. Beneath 35-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, deep-layer shear may contribute to organization. However, thermodynamic profiles do not appear particularly conducive to severe hail, and modest to weak low-level flow and lapse rates still seem likely to limit the risk for severe wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/10/2024 Read more