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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded southward based on current observations (winds gusting 20-45 mph, RH of 40-60%) and the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. RH and temperatures will be close to elevated criteria, but wind gusts of 25-50 mph and near to record setting high fire danger will create elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in the outlook area. The Elevated area in southern California remains on track. Overnight RH recovery was moderate to excellent with north-northwest wind gusts of 25-60 mph early this morning. The strongest winds will struggle to overlap with elevated/critical RH, but elevated fire weather conditions remain likely in portions of the Transverse Ranges/vicinity, primarily on southern/ocean-facing slopes. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California... A weak cold front will move across southern California through the morning. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery tonight into D2/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...New England... Gusty northwesterly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to 35-40 percent across New England this afternoon. Though relative humidity will be marginal, recent fire activity has shown fuels in this region are receptive to fire spread with drought conditions and very little recent rainfall. An Elevated delineation was included to cover this threat, given the potential for strong and gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded southward based on current observations (winds gusting 20-45 mph, RH of 40-60%) and the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. RH and temperatures will be close to elevated criteria, but wind gusts of 25-50 mph and near to record setting high fire danger will create elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in the outlook area. The Elevated area in southern California remains on track. Overnight RH recovery was moderate to excellent with north-northwest wind gusts of 25-60 mph early this morning. The strongest winds will struggle to overlap with elevated/critical RH, but elevated fire weather conditions remain likely in portions of the Transverse Ranges/vicinity, primarily on southern/ocean-facing slopes. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California... A weak cold front will move across southern California through the morning. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery tonight into D2/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...New England... Gusty northwesterly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to 35-40 percent across New England this afternoon. Though relative humidity will be marginal, recent fire activity has shown fuels in this region are receptive to fire spread with drought conditions and very little recent rainfall. An Elevated delineation was included to cover this threat, given the potential for strong and gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, perhaps accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...Southern High Plains... An upper trough over the Great Basin will advance eastward across the Rockies today, reaching the Plains late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature will encourage modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Low-level moisture will return northward today over portions of the southern High Plains, although its depth and quality will remain limited. It appears unlikely that convection will develop this afternoon across northwest TX into the OK/TX Panhandles, as a cap and weak instability should inhibit initiation. A somewhat better opportunity for thunderstorms will exist this evening across this area, mainly around/after 00-04Z, as warm advection and lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as a surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of KS and OK overnight into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, perhaps accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...Southern High Plains... An upper trough over the Great Basin will advance eastward across the Rockies today, reaching the Plains late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature will encourage modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Low-level moisture will return northward today over portions of the southern High Plains, although its depth and quality will remain limited. It appears unlikely that convection will develop this afternoon across northwest TX into the OK/TX Panhandles, as a cap and weak instability should inhibit initiation. A somewhat better opportunity for thunderstorms will exist this evening across this area, mainly around/after 00-04Z, as warm advection and lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as a surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of KS and OK overnight into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, perhaps accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...Southern High Plains... An upper trough over the Great Basin will advance eastward across the Rockies today, reaching the Plains late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature will encourage modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Low-level moisture will return northward today over portions of the southern High Plains, although its depth and quality will remain limited. It appears unlikely that convection will develop this afternoon across northwest TX into the OK/TX Panhandles, as a cap and weak instability should inhibit initiation. A somewhat better opportunity for thunderstorms will exist this evening across this area, mainly around/after 00-04Z, as warm advection and lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as a surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of KS and OK overnight into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, perhaps accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...Southern High Plains... An upper trough over the Great Basin will advance eastward across the Rockies today, reaching the Plains late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature will encourage modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Low-level moisture will return northward today over portions of the southern High Plains, although its depth and quality will remain limited. It appears unlikely that convection will develop this afternoon across northwest TX into the OK/TX Panhandles, as a cap and weak instability should inhibit initiation. A somewhat better opportunity for thunderstorms will exist this evening across this area, mainly around/after 00-04Z, as warm advection and lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as a surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of KS and OK overnight into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, perhaps accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...Southern High Plains... An upper trough over the Great Basin will advance eastward across the Rockies today, reaching the Plains late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature will encourage modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Low-level moisture will return northward today over portions of the southern High Plains, although its depth and quality will remain limited. It appears unlikely that convection will develop this afternoon across northwest TX into the OK/TX Panhandles, as a cap and weak instability should inhibit initiation. A somewhat better opportunity for thunderstorms will exist this evening across this area, mainly around/after 00-04Z, as warm advection and lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as a surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of KS and OK overnight into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, perhaps accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...Southern High Plains... An upper trough over the Great Basin will advance eastward across the Rockies today, reaching the Plains late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature will encourage modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Low-level moisture will return northward today over portions of the southern High Plains, although its depth and quality will remain limited. It appears unlikely that convection will develop this afternoon across northwest TX into the OK/TX Panhandles, as a cap and weak instability should inhibit initiation. A somewhat better opportunity for thunderstorms will exist this evening across this area, mainly around/after 00-04Z, as warm advection and lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as a surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of KS and OK overnight into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/12/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance still generally suggests some organized severe potential may evolve across the south-central Plains and vicinity early next week, though uncertainty remains high regarding the timing and intensity of embedded shortwave troughs and the details regarding low-level moisture return and destabilization. On D5/Saturday, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to emerge from the deep, positively tilted trough over the West and move across the northern Plains, accompanied by a deepening surface low. While severe potential appears minimal on Saturday, the ejecting wave is forecast to initiate low-level moisture return into the southern Plains, which will continue into D6/Sunday and D7/Monday. For D6/Sunday into D7/Monday, the most important feature related to severe potential will be a shortwave trough that may briefly evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low somewhere over the Southwest, before ejecting east-northeastward. Recent runs of the deterministic ECMWF/GFS are in relatively good agreement in depicting a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting into the south-central Plains on D7/Monday. However, spread among GEFS ensemble members remains rather high regarding the timing and evolution of shortwaves into early next week, while the ECMWF is less aggressive with low-level moisture return, showing only very minimal destabilization in advance of the ejecting shortwave trough on D7/Monday. Given the uncertainties regarding both shortwave timing and magnitude of moisture return/destabilization, confidence is too low to delineate a 15 percent area over some portion of the south-central Plains for D7/Monday, the day which seems to have the greatest relative potential at this time. It remains possible that some severe threat could emerge as soon as D6/Sunday, and/or potentially persist into D8/Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance still generally suggests some organized severe potential may evolve across the south-central Plains and vicinity early next week, though uncertainty remains high regarding the timing and intensity of embedded shortwave troughs and the details regarding low-level moisture return and destabilization. On D5/Saturday, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to emerge from the deep, positively tilted trough over the West and move across the northern Plains, accompanied by a deepening surface low. While severe potential appears minimal on Saturday, the ejecting wave is forecast to initiate low-level moisture return into the southern Plains, which will continue into D6/Sunday and D7/Monday. For D6/Sunday into D7/Monday, the most important feature related to severe potential will be a shortwave trough that may briefly evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low somewhere over the Southwest, before ejecting east-northeastward. Recent runs of the deterministic ECMWF/GFS are in relatively good agreement in depicting a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting into the south-central Plains on D7/Monday. However, spread among GEFS ensemble members remains rather high regarding the timing and evolution of shortwaves into early next week, while the ECMWF is less aggressive with low-level moisture return, showing only very minimal destabilization in advance of the ejecting shortwave trough on D7/Monday. Given the uncertainties regarding both shortwave timing and magnitude of moisture return/destabilization, confidence is too low to delineate a 15 percent area over some portion of the south-central Plains for D7/Monday, the day which seems to have the greatest relative potential at this time. It remains possible that some severe threat could emerge as soon as D6/Sunday, and/or potentially persist into D8/Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance still generally suggests some organized severe potential may evolve across the south-central Plains and vicinity early next week, though uncertainty remains high regarding the timing and intensity of embedded shortwave troughs and the details regarding low-level moisture return and destabilization. On D5/Saturday, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to emerge from the deep, positively tilted trough over the West and move across the northern Plains, accompanied by a deepening surface low. While severe potential appears minimal on Saturday, the ejecting wave is forecast to initiate low-level moisture return into the southern Plains, which will continue into D6/Sunday and D7/Monday. For D6/Sunday into D7/Monday, the most important feature related to severe potential will be a shortwave trough that may briefly evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low somewhere over the Southwest, before ejecting east-northeastward. Recent runs of the deterministic ECMWF/GFS are in relatively good agreement in depicting a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting into the south-central Plains on D7/Monday. However, spread among GEFS ensemble members remains rather high regarding the timing and evolution of shortwaves into early next week, while the ECMWF is less aggressive with low-level moisture return, showing only very minimal destabilization in advance of the ejecting shortwave trough on D7/Monday. Given the uncertainties regarding both shortwave timing and magnitude of moisture return/destabilization, confidence is too low to delineate a 15 percent area over some portion of the south-central Plains for D7/Monday, the day which seems to have the greatest relative potential at this time. It remains possible that some severe threat could emerge as soon as D6/Sunday, and/or potentially persist into D8/Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance still generally suggests some organized severe potential may evolve across the south-central Plains and vicinity early next week, though uncertainty remains high regarding the timing and intensity of embedded shortwave troughs and the details regarding low-level moisture return and destabilization. On D5/Saturday, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to emerge from the deep, positively tilted trough over the West and move across the northern Plains, accompanied by a deepening surface low. While severe potential appears minimal on Saturday, the ejecting wave is forecast to initiate low-level moisture return into the southern Plains, which will continue into D6/Sunday and D7/Monday. For D6/Sunday into D7/Monday, the most important feature related to severe potential will be a shortwave trough that may briefly evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low somewhere over the Southwest, before ejecting east-northeastward. Recent runs of the deterministic ECMWF/GFS are in relatively good agreement in depicting a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting into the south-central Plains on D7/Monday. However, spread among GEFS ensemble members remains rather high regarding the timing and evolution of shortwaves into early next week, while the ECMWF is less aggressive with low-level moisture return, showing only very minimal destabilization in advance of the ejecting shortwave trough on D7/Monday. Given the uncertainties regarding both shortwave timing and magnitude of moisture return/destabilization, confidence is too low to delineate a 15 percent area over some portion of the south-central Plains for D7/Monday, the day which seems to have the greatest relative potential at this time. It remains possible that some severe threat could emerge as soon as D6/Sunday, and/or potentially persist into D8/Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance still generally suggests some organized severe potential may evolve across the south-central Plains and vicinity early next week, though uncertainty remains high regarding the timing and intensity of embedded shortwave troughs and the details regarding low-level moisture return and destabilization. On D5/Saturday, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to emerge from the deep, positively tilted trough over the West and move across the northern Plains, accompanied by a deepening surface low. While severe potential appears minimal on Saturday, the ejecting wave is forecast to initiate low-level moisture return into the southern Plains, which will continue into D6/Sunday and D7/Monday. For D6/Sunday into D7/Monday, the most important feature related to severe potential will be a shortwave trough that may briefly evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low somewhere over the Southwest, before ejecting east-northeastward. Recent runs of the deterministic ECMWF/GFS are in relatively good agreement in depicting a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting into the south-central Plains on D7/Monday. However, spread among GEFS ensemble members remains rather high regarding the timing and evolution of shortwaves into early next week, while the ECMWF is less aggressive with low-level moisture return, showing only very minimal destabilization in advance of the ejecting shortwave trough on D7/Monday. Given the uncertainties regarding both shortwave timing and magnitude of moisture return/destabilization, confidence is too low to delineate a 15 percent area over some portion of the south-central Plains for D7/Monday, the day which seems to have the greatest relative potential at this time. It remains possible that some severe threat could emerge as soon as D6/Sunday, and/or potentially persist into D8/Tuesday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is forecast to turn southeastward and intensify on Thursday. In response to this system, a surface low is forecast to develop and deepen somewhere near the GA/Carolina coasts by Thursday evening. Farther west, a deep mid/upper-level trough will continue to move further inland across the western CONUS through the period. ...Central/northeast Gulf Coast vicinity... Rich low-level moisture will be in place ahead of a cold front during the morning/afternoon across parts of the central and northeast Gulf Coast vicinity, and thunderstorms may persist from late in the D2/Wednesday period and/or redevelop from the morning into at least the early afternoon. Guidance generally suggests that low-level flow will tend to veer and weaken with time in areas where richer moisture is in place, while weak midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. With the spatial extent of surface-based convective potential expected to be constrained and the environment forecast to become less favorable with time, organized severe potential appears too limited/uncertain to include probabilities. However, a strong storm or two will be possible, especially if convection from late D2/Wednesday is able to remain somewhat organized into the D3/Thursday forecast period. ...Coastal Carolinas... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the low that is forecast to deepen somewhere near the GA/Carolina coasts later in the forecast period. Some guidance suggests potential for richer low-level moisture and surface-based buoyancy to approach parts of the Coastal Carolinas, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. While it currently appears that the bulk of organized convection will remain offshore, this area will continue to be monitored for development of an appreciable severe threat in the vicinity of the coast. ..Dean.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is forecast to turn southeastward and intensify on Thursday. In response to this system, a surface low is forecast to develop and deepen somewhere near the GA/Carolina coasts by Thursday evening. Farther west, a deep mid/upper-level trough will continue to move further inland across the western CONUS through the period. ...Central/northeast Gulf Coast vicinity... Rich low-level moisture will be in place ahead of a cold front during the morning/afternoon across parts of the central and northeast Gulf Coast vicinity, and thunderstorms may persist from late in the D2/Wednesday period and/or redevelop from the morning into at least the early afternoon. Guidance generally suggests that low-level flow will tend to veer and weaken with time in areas where richer moisture is in place, while weak midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. With the spatial extent of surface-based convective potential expected to be constrained and the environment forecast to become less favorable with time, organized severe potential appears too limited/uncertain to include probabilities. However, a strong storm or two will be possible, especially if convection from late D2/Wednesday is able to remain somewhat organized into the D3/Thursday forecast period. ...Coastal Carolinas... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the low that is forecast to deepen somewhere near the GA/Carolina coasts later in the forecast period. Some guidance suggests potential for richer low-level moisture and surface-based buoyancy to approach parts of the Coastal Carolinas, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. While it currently appears that the bulk of organized convection will remain offshore, this area will continue to be monitored for development of an appreciable severe threat in the vicinity of the coast. ..Dean.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is forecast to turn southeastward and intensify on Thursday. In response to this system, a surface low is forecast to develop and deepen somewhere near the GA/Carolina coasts by Thursday evening. Farther west, a deep mid/upper-level trough will continue to move further inland across the western CONUS through the period. ...Central/northeast Gulf Coast vicinity... Rich low-level moisture will be in place ahead of a cold front during the morning/afternoon across parts of the central and northeast Gulf Coast vicinity, and thunderstorms may persist from late in the D2/Wednesday period and/or redevelop from the morning into at least the early afternoon. Guidance generally suggests that low-level flow will tend to veer and weaken with time in areas where richer moisture is in place, while weak midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. With the spatial extent of surface-based convective potential expected to be constrained and the environment forecast to become less favorable with time, organized severe potential appears too limited/uncertain to include probabilities. However, a strong storm or two will be possible, especially if convection from late D2/Wednesday is able to remain somewhat organized into the D3/Thursday forecast period. ...Coastal Carolinas... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the low that is forecast to deepen somewhere near the GA/Carolina coasts later in the forecast period. Some guidance suggests potential for richer low-level moisture and surface-based buoyancy to approach parts of the Coastal Carolinas, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. While it currently appears that the bulk of organized convection will remain offshore, this area will continue to be monitored for development of an appreciable severe threat in the vicinity of the coast. ..Dean.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is forecast to turn southeastward and intensify on Thursday. In response to this system, a surface low is forecast to develop and deepen somewhere near the GA/Carolina coasts by Thursday evening. Farther west, a deep mid/upper-level trough will continue to move further inland across the western CONUS through the period. ...Central/northeast Gulf Coast vicinity... Rich low-level moisture will be in place ahead of a cold front during the morning/afternoon across parts of the central and northeast Gulf Coast vicinity, and thunderstorms may persist from late in the D2/Wednesday period and/or redevelop from the morning into at least the early afternoon. Guidance generally suggests that low-level flow will tend to veer and weaken with time in areas where richer moisture is in place, while weak midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. With the spatial extent of surface-based convective potential expected to be constrained and the environment forecast to become less favorable with time, organized severe potential appears too limited/uncertain to include probabilities. However, a strong storm or two will be possible, especially if convection from late D2/Wednesday is able to remain somewhat organized into the D3/Thursday forecast period. ...Coastal Carolinas... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the low that is forecast to deepen somewhere near the GA/Carolina coasts later in the forecast period. Some guidance suggests potential for richer low-level moisture and surface-based buoyancy to approach parts of the Coastal Carolinas, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. While it currently appears that the bulk of organized convection will remain offshore, this area will continue to be monitored for development of an appreciable severe threat in the vicinity of the coast. ..Dean.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is forecast to turn southeastward and intensify on Thursday. In response to this system, a surface low is forecast to develop and deepen somewhere near the GA/Carolina coasts by Thursday evening. Farther west, a deep mid/upper-level trough will continue to move further inland across the western CONUS through the period. ...Central/northeast Gulf Coast vicinity... Rich low-level moisture will be in place ahead of a cold front during the morning/afternoon across parts of the central and northeast Gulf Coast vicinity, and thunderstorms may persist from late in the D2/Wednesday period and/or redevelop from the morning into at least the early afternoon. Guidance generally suggests that low-level flow will tend to veer and weaken with time in areas where richer moisture is in place, while weak midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. With the spatial extent of surface-based convective potential expected to be constrained and the environment forecast to become less favorable with time, organized severe potential appears too limited/uncertain to include probabilities. However, a strong storm or two will be possible, especially if convection from late D2/Wednesday is able to remain somewhat organized into the D3/Thursday forecast period. ...Coastal Carolinas... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the low that is forecast to deepen somewhere near the GA/Carolina coasts later in the forecast period. Some guidance suggests potential for richer low-level moisture and surface-based buoyancy to approach parts of the Coastal Carolinas, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. While it currently appears that the bulk of organized convection will remain offshore, this area will continue to be monitored for development of an appreciable severe threat in the vicinity of the coast. ..Dean.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Gusty post-frontal off-shore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast from far eastern PA and southern NJ extending northeast through southern New England. A very dry air mass will remain in place with relative humidity reductions to around 30-35 percent likely. Given the drought conditions and receptive fuels in this region, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Locally Critical conditions may be possible, though the limited spatial extent of this threat precludes the need to include a Critical area at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Gusty post-frontal off-shore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast from far eastern PA and southern NJ extending northeast through southern New England. A very dry air mass will remain in place with relative humidity reductions to around 30-35 percent likely. Given the drought conditions and receptive fuels in this region, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Locally Critical conditions may be possible, though the limited spatial extent of this threat precludes the need to include a Critical area at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more