Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... ...Northeast/New England... Gusty post-frontal offshore flow will continue across the northeastern US today, with potential for relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent and northwesterly winds around 10 mph gusting 20-25 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. Winds should gradually weaken through the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the region. ...Appalachians Tennessee/North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia Border... Strong southeast winds further enhanced by downslope flow will bring areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Appalachians near the TN/NC border through the WV/VA border. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent may overlap with enhanced flow in favored north facing slopes. Wetting rainfall will overspread this region Wednesday night into Thursday. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2224 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2224 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Areas affected...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130327Z - 130600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...The evolution of a narrow line of storms appears possible along a southeastward advancing cold front during the next few hours. It is possible that this may include rapid, but short-lived, initial intensification, accompanied by a brief period with potential to produce severe hail and wind. DISCUSSION...Low-level moistening on southerly return flow continues in a narrow corridor north of the Rio Grande Valley into the the vicinity of modest surface troughing across the high plains. Beneath modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, it appears that this is contributing to CAPE on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg across parts of the Texas South Plains through Texas Panhandle vicinity. Some further destabilization remains possible northward across the Oklahoma Panhandle into southwestern Kansas during the next hour or so, before an eastward advancing cold front increasingly overtakes the lee surface trough/dryline through 03-05Z. The initiation of convection now appears gradually underway west of line from Garden City through Hill City KS, aided by weak pre-frontal warm advection. However, the frontogenetic forcing, aided by large-scale ascent associated with the short wave trough progressing east of the southern Rockies, now appears most likely to be the focus for any potential vigorous thunderstorm development. Once this interacts with the plume of better low-level moisture return, more rapid thunderstorm development is likely, and the quick evolution of a narrow line seems probable during the next few hours. Given the convective mode, the potential for severe hail remains uncertain, and the window of opportunity for potentially damaging surface gusts seems limited, as the convection quickly progresses through the narrow instability axis. ..Kerr/Smith.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37120158 37920116 38470100 38509977 35160129 35800197 37120158 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts. A potential for severe gusts could also develop along parts of the West Coast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains today, as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the system, over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the lower Mississippi Valley where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As moisture advection continues this morning into afternoon, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop over parts of eastern Louisiana and western Mississippi. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop within this pocket of instability around midday, with additional storms developing further to the east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast. RAP and NAM forecast soundings in the lower Mississippi Valley suggest that MLCAPE could peak across southeast Louisiana in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range around 21Z. At that time near the instability max, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 30 knots. Some directional is evident below 850 mb but lapse rates at low and mid-levels are forecast to be poor. This environment could support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with rotating storms or semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if any rotating storms can move through the stronger instability while remaining discrete. The marginal severe threat may continue into early evening as a line segment moves into the central Gulf Coast. ...West Coast... A shortwave trough is forecast to approach the West Coast today and move inland late this afternoon into this evening. Ahead of the trough, strong large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development along the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Model forecasts suggest that flow at 850 mb will be around 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment could be favorable for marginally severe gusts mainly after 21Z as the trough approaches the coast. The potential for isolated severe gusts may continue into the evening, as the trough moves inland. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts. A potential for severe gusts could also develop along parts of the West Coast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains today, as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the system, over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the lower Mississippi Valley where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As moisture advection continues this morning into afternoon, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop over parts of eastern Louisiana and western Mississippi. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop within this pocket of instability around midday, with additional storms developing further to the east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast. RAP and NAM forecast soundings in the lower Mississippi Valley suggest that MLCAPE could peak across southeast Louisiana in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range around 21Z. At that time near the instability max, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 30 knots. Some directional is evident below 850 mb but lapse rates at low and mid-levels are forecast to be poor. This environment could support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with rotating storms or semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if any rotating storms can move through the stronger instability while remaining discrete. The marginal severe threat may continue into early evening as a line segment moves into the central Gulf Coast. ...West Coast... A shortwave trough is forecast to approach the West Coast today and move inland late this afternoon into this evening. Ahead of the trough, strong large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development along the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Model forecasts suggest that flow at 850 mb will be around 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment could be favorable for marginally severe gusts mainly after 21Z as the trough approaches the coast. The potential for isolated severe gusts may continue into the evening, as the trough moves inland. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts. A potential for severe gusts could also develop along parts of the West Coast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains today, as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the system, over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the lower Mississippi Valley where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As moisture advection continues this morning into afternoon, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop over parts of eastern Louisiana and western Mississippi. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop within this pocket of instability around midday, with additional storms developing further to the east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast. RAP and NAM forecast soundings in the lower Mississippi Valley suggest that MLCAPE could peak across southeast Louisiana in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range around 21Z. At that time near the instability max, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 30 knots. Some directional is evident below 850 mb but lapse rates at low and mid-levels are forecast to be poor. This environment could support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with rotating storms or semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if any rotating storms can move through the stronger instability while remaining discrete. The marginal severe threat may continue into early evening as a line segment moves into the central Gulf Coast. ...West Coast... A shortwave trough is forecast to approach the West Coast today and move inland late this afternoon into this evening. Ahead of the trough, strong large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development along the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Model forecasts suggest that flow at 850 mb will be around 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment could be favorable for marginally severe gusts mainly after 21Z as the trough approaches the coast. The potential for isolated severe gusts may continue into the evening, as the trough moves inland. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts. A potential for severe gusts could also develop along parts of the West Coast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains today, as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the system, over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the lower Mississippi Valley where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As moisture advection continues this morning into afternoon, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop over parts of eastern Louisiana and western Mississippi. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop within this pocket of instability around midday, with additional storms developing further to the east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast. RAP and NAM forecast soundings in the lower Mississippi Valley suggest that MLCAPE could peak across southeast Louisiana in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range around 21Z. At that time near the instability max, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 30 knots. Some directional is evident below 850 mb but lapse rates at low and mid-levels are forecast to be poor. This environment could support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with rotating storms or semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if any rotating storms can move through the stronger instability while remaining discrete. The marginal severe threat may continue into early evening as a line segment moves into the central Gulf Coast. ...West Coast... A shortwave trough is forecast to approach the West Coast today and move inland late this afternoon into this evening. Ahead of the trough, strong large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development along the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Model forecasts suggest that flow at 850 mb will be around 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment could be favorable for marginally severe gusts mainly after 21Z as the trough approaches the coast. The potential for isolated severe gusts may continue into the evening, as the trough moves inland. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts. A potential for severe gusts could also develop along parts of the West Coast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains today, as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the system, over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the lower Mississippi Valley where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As moisture advection continues this morning into afternoon, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop over parts of eastern Louisiana and western Mississippi. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop within this pocket of instability around midday, with additional storms developing further to the east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast. RAP and NAM forecast soundings in the lower Mississippi Valley suggest that MLCAPE could peak across southeast Louisiana in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range around 21Z. At that time near the instability max, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 30 knots. Some directional is evident below 850 mb but lapse rates at low and mid-levels are forecast to be poor. This environment could support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with rotating storms or semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if any rotating storms can move through the stronger instability while remaining discrete. The marginal severe threat may continue into early evening as a line segment moves into the central Gulf Coast. ...West Coast... A shortwave trough is forecast to approach the West Coast today and move inland late this afternoon into this evening. Ahead of the trough, strong large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development along the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Model forecasts suggest that flow at 850 mb will be around 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment could be favorable for marginally severe gusts mainly after 21Z as the trough approaches the coast. The potential for isolated severe gusts may continue into the evening, as the trough moves inland. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts. A potential for severe gusts could also develop along parts of the West Coast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains today, as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the system, over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the lower Mississippi Valley where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As moisture advection continues this morning into afternoon, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop over parts of eastern Louisiana and western Mississippi. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop within this pocket of instability around midday, with additional storms developing further to the east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast. RAP and NAM forecast soundings in the lower Mississippi Valley suggest that MLCAPE could peak across southeast Louisiana in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range around 21Z. At that time near the instability max, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 30 knots. Some directional is evident below 850 mb but lapse rates at low and mid-levels are forecast to be poor. This environment could support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with rotating storms or semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if any rotating storms can move through the stronger instability while remaining discrete. The marginal severe threat may continue into early evening as a line segment moves into the central Gulf Coast. ...West Coast... A shortwave trough is forecast to approach the West Coast today and move inland late this afternoon into this evening. Ahead of the trough, strong large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development along the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Model forecasts suggest that flow at 850 mb will be around 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment could be favorable for marginally severe gusts mainly after 21Z as the trough approaches the coast. The potential for isolated severe gusts may continue into the evening, as the trough moves inland. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts. A potential for severe gusts could also develop along parts of the West Coast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains today, as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the system, over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the lower Mississippi Valley where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As moisture advection continues this morning into afternoon, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop over parts of eastern Louisiana and western Mississippi. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop within this pocket of instability around midday, with additional storms developing further to the east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast. RAP and NAM forecast soundings in the lower Mississippi Valley suggest that MLCAPE could peak across southeast Louisiana in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range around 21Z. At that time near the instability max, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 30 knots. Some directional is evident below 850 mb but lapse rates at low and mid-levels are forecast to be poor. This environment could support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with rotating storms or semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if any rotating storms can move through the stronger instability while remaining discrete. The marginal severe threat may continue into early evening as a line segment moves into the central Gulf Coast. ...West Coast... A shortwave trough is forecast to approach the West Coast today and move inland late this afternoon into this evening. Ahead of the trough, strong large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development along the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Model forecasts suggest that flow at 850 mb will be around 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment could be favorable for marginally severe gusts mainly after 21Z as the trough approaches the coast. The potential for isolated severe gusts may continue into the evening, as the trough moves inland. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts. A potential for severe gusts could also develop along parts of the West Coast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains today, as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the system, over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the lower Mississippi Valley where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As moisture advection continues this morning into afternoon, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop over parts of eastern Louisiana and western Mississippi. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop within this pocket of instability around midday, with additional storms developing further to the east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast. RAP and NAM forecast soundings in the lower Mississippi Valley suggest that MLCAPE could peak across southeast Louisiana in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range around 21Z. At that time near the instability max, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 30 knots. Some directional is evident below 850 mb but lapse rates at low and mid-levels are forecast to be poor. This environment could support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with rotating storms or semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if any rotating storms can move through the stronger instability while remaining discrete. The marginal severe threat may continue into early evening as a line segment moves into the central Gulf Coast. ...West Coast... A shortwave trough is forecast to approach the West Coast today and move inland late this afternoon into this evening. Ahead of the trough, strong large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development along the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Model forecasts suggest that flow at 850 mb will be around 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment could be favorable for marginally severe gusts mainly after 21Z as the trough approaches the coast. The potential for isolated severe gusts may continue into the evening, as the trough moves inland. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Southern High Plains Into Far Southwest Kansas... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from northern Mexico northeastward across the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is located across west Texas, where surface dewpoints are in the 55 to 60 F range. As low-level moisture advection continues across the southern High Plains this evening, a pocket of instability is expected to develop over the eastern Texas Panhandle, where the RAP is forecasting MUCAPE to approach 1500 J/kg by midnight. The instability, along with increasing large-scale ascent, associated with the approaching mid-level trough, will likely support isolated thunderstorm development near the instability axis late this evening. Convective coverage is expected to expand as cells move eastward across southern Kansas and western Oklahoma during the early overnight period. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 06Z have an inversion from the surface to 850 mb suggesting that the storms will be elevated. Above the inversion, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km, with effective shear near 40 knots. This may be enough for rotating cells capable of producing isolated large hail. A chance for isolated severe gusts will also exist, but this will be a lesser threat. ..Broyles.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Southern High Plains Into Far Southwest Kansas... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from northern Mexico northeastward across the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is located across west Texas, where surface dewpoints are in the 55 to 60 F range. As low-level moisture advection continues across the southern High Plains this evening, a pocket of instability is expected to develop over the eastern Texas Panhandle, where the RAP is forecasting MUCAPE to approach 1500 J/kg by midnight. The instability, along with increasing large-scale ascent, associated with the approaching mid-level trough, will likely support isolated thunderstorm development near the instability axis late this evening. Convective coverage is expected to expand as cells move eastward across southern Kansas and western Oklahoma during the early overnight period. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 06Z have an inversion from the surface to 850 mb suggesting that the storms will be elevated. Above the inversion, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km, with effective shear near 40 knots. This may be enough for rotating cells capable of producing isolated large hail. A chance for isolated severe gusts will also exist, but this will be a lesser threat. ..Broyles.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Southern High Plains Into Far Southwest Kansas... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from northern Mexico northeastward across the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is located across west Texas, where surface dewpoints are in the 55 to 60 F range. As low-level moisture advection continues across the southern High Plains this evening, a pocket of instability is expected to develop over the eastern Texas Panhandle, where the RAP is forecasting MUCAPE to approach 1500 J/kg by midnight. The instability, along with increasing large-scale ascent, associated with the approaching mid-level trough, will likely support isolated thunderstorm development near the instability axis late this evening. Convective coverage is expected to expand as cells move eastward across southern Kansas and western Oklahoma during the early overnight period. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 06Z have an inversion from the surface to 850 mb suggesting that the storms will be elevated. Above the inversion, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km, with effective shear near 40 knots. This may be enough for rotating cells capable of producing isolated large hail. A chance for isolated severe gusts will also exist, but this will be a lesser threat. ..Broyles.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Southern High Plains Into Far Southwest Kansas... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from northern Mexico northeastward across the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is located across west Texas, where surface dewpoints are in the 55 to 60 F range. As low-level moisture advection continues across the southern High Plains this evening, a pocket of instability is expected to develop over the eastern Texas Panhandle, where the RAP is forecasting MUCAPE to approach 1500 J/kg by midnight. The instability, along with increasing large-scale ascent, associated with the approaching mid-level trough, will likely support isolated thunderstorm development near the instability axis late this evening. Convective coverage is expected to expand as cells move eastward across southern Kansas and western Oklahoma during the early overnight period. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 06Z have an inversion from the surface to 850 mb suggesting that the storms will be elevated. Above the inversion, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km, with effective shear near 40 knots. This may be enough for rotating cells capable of producing isolated large hail. A chance for isolated severe gusts will also exist, but this will be a lesser threat. ..Broyles.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Southern High Plains Into Far Southwest Kansas... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from northern Mexico northeastward across the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is located across west Texas, where surface dewpoints are in the 55 to 60 F range. As low-level moisture advection continues across the southern High Plains this evening, a pocket of instability is expected to develop over the eastern Texas Panhandle, where the RAP is forecasting MUCAPE to approach 1500 J/kg by midnight. The instability, along with increasing large-scale ascent, associated with the approaching mid-level trough, will likely support isolated thunderstorm development near the instability axis late this evening. Convective coverage is expected to expand as cells move eastward across southern Kansas and western Oklahoma during the early overnight period. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 06Z have an inversion from the surface to 850 mb suggesting that the storms will be elevated. Above the inversion, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km, with effective shear near 40 knots. This may be enough for rotating cells capable of producing isolated large hail. A chance for isolated severe gusts will also exist, but this will be a lesser threat. ..Broyles.. 11/13/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 12 22:20:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 12 22:20:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing is expected over both the East and West Coasts Day 3/Thursday - Day 5/Saturday, with upper-level ridging slowly shifting from over the central US to over portions of the eastern US. There is forecast uncertainty regarding how this amplified upper-level pattern progresses early next week, which will have ramifications for potential fire weather concerns in southern/central California and the Northeast. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... An approaching warm front with associated cloud cover and possible shower activity will limit fire weather concerns across the Mid-Atlantic and into portions of the Northeast on Day 3/Thursday. However, dry/breezy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Given the recent drought, lack of forecast rain, and near to record high fire danger, 40% probabilities were expanded and introduced during what appears to be a multi-day fire weather episode. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding forecast precipitation and where the greatest overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH will be, but confidence is increasing in at least elevated fire weather conditions for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley/vicinity, and southern New England late this week through the weekend. ...Southern/central California... Breezy/gusty north-northwest winds are possible in portions of central/southern California Day 5/Saturday into Day 7/Monday as multiple cold fronts sweep south and east over the region. The southern extent of forecast precipitation and the magnitude of these winds remain uncertain precluding 40% areas at this time. Confidence is increasing in an offshore/Santa Ana wind event mid-next week, which is on the edge of the outlook period. This event may start on Day 8/Tuesday and last multiple days. This will be monitored and if trends hold, probabilities will likely be added in subsequent extended outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing is expected over both the East and West Coasts Day 3/Thursday - Day 5/Saturday, with upper-level ridging slowly shifting from over the central US to over portions of the eastern US. There is forecast uncertainty regarding how this amplified upper-level pattern progresses early next week, which will have ramifications for potential fire weather concerns in southern/central California and the Northeast. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... An approaching warm front with associated cloud cover and possible shower activity will limit fire weather concerns across the Mid-Atlantic and into portions of the Northeast on Day 3/Thursday. However, dry/breezy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Given the recent drought, lack of forecast rain, and near to record high fire danger, 40% probabilities were expanded and introduced during what appears to be a multi-day fire weather episode. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding forecast precipitation and where the greatest overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH will be, but confidence is increasing in at least elevated fire weather conditions for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley/vicinity, and southern New England late this week through the weekend. ...Southern/central California... Breezy/gusty north-northwest winds are possible in portions of central/southern California Day 5/Saturday into Day 7/Monday as multiple cold fronts sweep south and east over the region. The southern extent of forecast precipitation and the magnitude of these winds remain uncertain precluding 40% areas at this time. Confidence is increasing in an offshore/Santa Ana wind event mid-next week, which is on the edge of the outlook period. This event may start on Day 8/Tuesday and last multiple days. This will be monitored and if trends hold, probabilities will likely be added in subsequent extended outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Upper-level troughing is expected over both the East and West Coasts Day 3/Thursday - Day 5/Saturday, with upper-level ridging slowly shifting from over the central US to over portions of the eastern US. There is forecast uncertainty regarding how this amplified upper-level pattern progresses early next week, which will have ramifications for potential fire weather concerns in southern/central California and the Northeast. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... An approaching warm front with associated cloud cover and possible shower activity will limit fire weather concerns across the Mid-Atlantic and into portions of the Northeast on Day 3/Thursday. However, dry/breezy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Day 4/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Given the recent drought, lack of forecast rain, and near to record high fire danger, 40% probabilities were expanded and introduced during what appears to be a multi-day fire weather episode. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding forecast precipitation and where the greatest overlap of elevated/critical winds/RH will be, but confidence is increasing in at least elevated fire weather conditions for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley/vicinity, and southern New England late this week through the weekend. ...Southern/central California... Breezy/gusty north-northwest winds are possible in portions of central/southern California Day 5/Saturday into Day 7/Monday as multiple cold fronts sweep south and east over the region. The southern extent of forecast precipitation and the magnitude of these winds remain uncertain precluding 40% areas at this time. Confidence is increasing in an offshore/Santa Ana wind event mid-next week, which is on the edge of the outlook period. This event may start on Day 8/Tuesday and last multiple days. This will be monitored and if trends hold, probabilities will likely be added in subsequent extended outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more