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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Slight westward trimming of severe probabilities were made to account for the eastward progression of the surface trough. Otherwise, low-level WAA preceding the surface trough, in tandem with vertically veering wind profiles, may support stronger storms with occasional bouts of low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or isolated tornadoes remain possible into this evening. A brief tornado also still cannot be ruled out over portions of coastal Pacific Northwest. ..Squitieri.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Slight westward trimming of severe probabilities were made to account for the eastward progression of the surface trough. Otherwise, low-level WAA preceding the surface trough, in tandem with vertically veering wind profiles, may support stronger storms with occasional bouts of low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or isolated tornadoes remain possible into this evening. A brief tornado also still cannot be ruled out over portions of coastal Pacific Northwest. ..Squitieri.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone is expected to be over the NC coast/Outer Banks vicinity early Friday morning before then quickly progressing eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone, with any higher storm coverage remaining well offshore. A deep upper trough will continue gradually eastward across the western CONUS while continuing to amplify. By early Saturday morning, this trough is expected to extend from Alberta south-southwestward to off southern CA/Baja Peninsula with strong southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery extending through the Southwest and central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone is expected to be over the NC coast/Outer Banks vicinity early Friday morning before then quickly progressing eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone, with any higher storm coverage remaining well offshore. A deep upper trough will continue gradually eastward across the western CONUS while continuing to amplify. By early Saturday morning, this trough is expected to extend from Alberta south-southwestward to off southern CA/Baja Peninsula with strong southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery extending through the Southwest and central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone is expected to be over the NC coast/Outer Banks vicinity early Friday morning before then quickly progressing eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone, with any higher storm coverage remaining well offshore. A deep upper trough will continue gradually eastward across the western CONUS while continuing to amplify. By early Saturday morning, this trough is expected to extend from Alberta south-southwestward to off southern CA/Baja Peninsula with strong southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery extending through the Southwest and central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone is expected to be over the NC coast/Outer Banks vicinity early Friday morning before then quickly progressing eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone, with any higher storm coverage remaining well offshore. A deep upper trough will continue gradually eastward across the western CONUS while continuing to amplify. By early Saturday morning, this trough is expected to extend from Alberta south-southwestward to off southern CA/Baja Peninsula with strong southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery extending through the Southwest and central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone is expected to be over the NC coast/Outer Banks vicinity early Friday morning before then quickly progressing eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone, with any higher storm coverage remaining well offshore. A deep upper trough will continue gradually eastward across the western CONUS while continuing to amplify. By early Saturday morning, this trough is expected to extend from Alberta south-southwestward to off southern CA/Baja Peninsula with strong southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery extending through the Southwest and central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone is expected to be over the NC coast/Outer Banks vicinity early Friday morning before then quickly progressing eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone, with any higher storm coverage remaining well offshore. A deep upper trough will continue gradually eastward across the western CONUS while continuing to amplify. By early Saturday morning, this trough is expected to extend from Alberta south-southwestward to off southern CA/Baja Peninsula with strong southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery extending through the Southwest and central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone is expected to be over the NC coast/Outer Banks vicinity early Friday morning before then quickly progressing eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone, with any higher storm coverage remaining well offshore. A deep upper trough will continue gradually eastward across the western CONUS while continuing to amplify. By early Saturday morning, this trough is expected to extend from Alberta south-southwestward to off southern CA/Baja Peninsula with strong southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery extending through the Southwest and central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone is expected to be over the NC coast/Outer Banks vicinity early Friday morning before then quickly progressing eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone, with any higher storm coverage remaining well offshore. A deep upper trough will continue gradually eastward across the western CONUS while continuing to amplify. By early Saturday morning, this trough is expected to extend from Alberta south-southwestward to off southern CA/Baja Peninsula with strong southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery extending through the Southwest and central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest forecast guidance continues to show limited potential for elevated or critical fire weather conditions across the country. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest forecast guidance continues to show limited potential for elevated or critical fire weather conditions across the country. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest forecast guidance continues to show limited potential for elevated or critical fire weather conditions across the country. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest forecast guidance continues to show limited potential for elevated or critical fire weather conditions across the country. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest forecast guidance continues to show limited potential for elevated or critical fire weather conditions across the country. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest forecast guidance continues to show limited potential for elevated or critical fire weather conditions across the country. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest forecast guidance continues to show limited potential for elevated or critical fire weather conditions across the country. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest forecast guidance continues to show limited potential for elevated or critical fire weather conditions across the country. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more