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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado may occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...Coastal Carolinas... A pronounced upper trough will continue eastward today from the OH/TN Valleys and Midwest towards the southern Mid-Atlantic. As this occurs, a weak surface/coastal low will develop in response across the eastern Carolinas this afternoon/evening and adjacent coastal waters tonight. Most guidance suggests this surface low will remain very near/along the immediate coast, or just offshore. Recent RAP runs are a notable exception, showing a slightly more inland track. Regardless, sufficient low-level moisture and related weak boundary-layer instability should be present by this evening across parts of coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Any surface-based convection that can be sustained tonight in the favorably sheared environment may pose an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Greater severe potential remains evident just offshore and over the Gulf Stream, but there still appears to be enough severe potential over land to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado may occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...Coastal Carolinas... A pronounced upper trough will continue eastward today from the OH/TN Valleys and Midwest towards the southern Mid-Atlantic. As this occurs, a weak surface/coastal low will develop in response across the eastern Carolinas this afternoon/evening and adjacent coastal waters tonight. Most guidance suggests this surface low will remain very near/along the immediate coast, or just offshore. Recent RAP runs are a notable exception, showing a slightly more inland track. Regardless, sufficient low-level moisture and related weak boundary-layer instability should be present by this evening across parts of coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Any surface-based convection that can be sustained tonight in the favorably sheared environment may pose an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Greater severe potential remains evident just offshore and over the Gulf Stream, but there still appears to be enough severe potential over land to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/14/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday into D5/Monday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a mid/upper-level shortwave trough/closed low will move eastward across parts of the Southwest/northern Mexico through the day Sunday. This system will eject northeastward as a negatively tilted shortwave trough Sunday evening into Monday, accompanied by intense deep-layer flow fields and significant surface cyclogenesis. Meanwhile, recent guidance has trended toward somewhat richer low-level moisture return, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading into parts of southwest/central/north TX Sunday night into Monday, with at least low 60s F dewpoints into parts of OK/KS. Midlevel temperatures will remain relatively warm across the warm sector, but there is greater confidence in at least modest surface-based buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) developing across parts of west/central TX Sunday night, accompanied by an substantial increase in low-level and deep-layer shear. Isolated severe storm potential cannot be ruled out by late afternoon into early evening, but a notable increase in storm coverage is expected Sunday night. Extensive convection may result in a tendency toward a linear/QLCS mode, but intense deep-layer flow and increasing low-level shear will support a threat of severe wind gusts along with some tornado potential. A 15% area has been added for D4/Sunday, where intensifying flow is forecast to overlap sufficient instability amid as deep convection increases in coverage Sunday night. Some severe threat may persist from late D4/Sunday into at least early D5/Monday, as the shortwave and attendant surface low continue to eject northeastward. Uncertainty increases at this time range regarding the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat on D5/Monday, as richer low-level moisture potentially gets pinched off from the stronger ascent from the ejecting shortwave trough, and buoyancy becomes increasingly weak across the warm sector. Intense wind fields will support some severe-wind and tornado potential where convection can remain surface-based. There also may be some potential for renewed storm development Monday afternoon in the immediate vicinity of the ejecting shortwave and surface low across the central Plains (as suggested in the 14/00Z ECMWF), though this scenario remains quite uncertain. A small 15% area has been included for D5/Monday, as a continuation of the threat that begins late D4/Sunday. Depending on destabilization trends during the day on Monday, probabilities may eventually need to be expanded to the north and/or east of this area. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Some severe threat could linger on D6/Tuesday in the vicinity of the MS Valley, though model spread increases substantially at this range regarding the evolution of the upper-level pattern and occluding cyclone over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Otherwise, Tropical Depression 19 has formed across the Caribbean, with the NHC forecast track suggesting this system may eventually approach some portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Uncertainty remains very high regarding any severe threat with this system into mid/late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday into D5/Monday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a mid/upper-level shortwave trough/closed low will move eastward across parts of the Southwest/northern Mexico through the day Sunday. This system will eject northeastward as a negatively tilted shortwave trough Sunday evening into Monday, accompanied by intense deep-layer flow fields and significant surface cyclogenesis. Meanwhile, recent guidance has trended toward somewhat richer low-level moisture return, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading into parts of southwest/central/north TX Sunday night into Monday, with at least low 60s F dewpoints into parts of OK/KS. Midlevel temperatures will remain relatively warm across the warm sector, but there is greater confidence in at least modest surface-based buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) developing across parts of west/central TX Sunday night, accompanied by an substantial increase in low-level and deep-layer shear. Isolated severe storm potential cannot be ruled out by late afternoon into early evening, but a notable increase in storm coverage is expected Sunday night. Extensive convection may result in a tendency toward a linear/QLCS mode, but intense deep-layer flow and increasing low-level shear will support a threat of severe wind gusts along with some tornado potential. A 15% area has been added for D4/Sunday, where intensifying flow is forecast to overlap sufficient instability amid as deep convection increases in coverage Sunday night. Some severe threat may persist from late D4/Sunday into at least early D5/Monday, as the shortwave and attendant surface low continue to eject northeastward. Uncertainty increases at this time range regarding the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat on D5/Monday, as richer low-level moisture potentially gets pinched off from the stronger ascent from the ejecting shortwave trough, and buoyancy becomes increasingly weak across the warm sector. Intense wind fields will support some severe-wind and tornado potential where convection can remain surface-based. There also may be some potential for renewed storm development Monday afternoon in the immediate vicinity of the ejecting shortwave and surface low across the central Plains (as suggested in the 14/00Z ECMWF), though this scenario remains quite uncertain. A small 15% area has been included for D5/Monday, as a continuation of the threat that begins late D4/Sunday. Depending on destabilization trends during the day on Monday, probabilities may eventually need to be expanded to the north and/or east of this area. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Some severe threat could linger on D6/Tuesday in the vicinity of the MS Valley, though model spread increases substantially at this range regarding the evolution of the upper-level pattern and occluding cyclone over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Otherwise, Tropical Depression 19 has formed across the Caribbean, with the NHC forecast track suggesting this system may eventually approach some portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Uncertainty remains very high regarding any severe threat with this system into mid/late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday into D5/Monday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a mid/upper-level shortwave trough/closed low will move eastward across parts of the Southwest/northern Mexico through the day Sunday. This system will eject northeastward as a negatively tilted shortwave trough Sunday evening into Monday, accompanied by intense deep-layer flow fields and significant surface cyclogenesis. Meanwhile, recent guidance has trended toward somewhat richer low-level moisture return, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading into parts of southwest/central/north TX Sunday night into Monday, with at least low 60s F dewpoints into parts of OK/KS. Midlevel temperatures will remain relatively warm across the warm sector, but there is greater confidence in at least modest surface-based buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) developing across parts of west/central TX Sunday night, accompanied by an substantial increase in low-level and deep-layer shear. Isolated severe storm potential cannot be ruled out by late afternoon into early evening, but a notable increase in storm coverage is expected Sunday night. Extensive convection may result in a tendency toward a linear/QLCS mode, but intense deep-layer flow and increasing low-level shear will support a threat of severe wind gusts along with some tornado potential. A 15% area has been added for D4/Sunday, where intensifying flow is forecast to overlap sufficient instability amid as deep convection increases in coverage Sunday night. Some severe threat may persist from late D4/Sunday into at least early D5/Monday, as the shortwave and attendant surface low continue to eject northeastward. Uncertainty increases at this time range regarding the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat on D5/Monday, as richer low-level moisture potentially gets pinched off from the stronger ascent from the ejecting shortwave trough, and buoyancy becomes increasingly weak across the warm sector. Intense wind fields will support some severe-wind and tornado potential where convection can remain surface-based. There also may be some potential for renewed storm development Monday afternoon in the immediate vicinity of the ejecting shortwave and surface low across the central Plains (as suggested in the 14/00Z ECMWF), though this scenario remains quite uncertain. A small 15% area has been included for D5/Monday, as a continuation of the threat that begins late D4/Sunday. Depending on destabilization trends during the day on Monday, probabilities may eventually need to be expanded to the north and/or east of this area. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Some severe threat could linger on D6/Tuesday in the vicinity of the MS Valley, though model spread increases substantially at this range regarding the evolution of the upper-level pattern and occluding cyclone over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Otherwise, Tropical Depression 19 has formed across the Caribbean, with the NHC forecast track suggesting this system may eventually approach some portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Uncertainty remains very high regarding any severe threat with this system into mid/late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday into D5/Monday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a mid/upper-level shortwave trough/closed low will move eastward across parts of the Southwest/northern Mexico through the day Sunday. This system will eject northeastward as a negatively tilted shortwave trough Sunday evening into Monday, accompanied by intense deep-layer flow fields and significant surface cyclogenesis. Meanwhile, recent guidance has trended toward somewhat richer low-level moisture return, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading into parts of southwest/central/north TX Sunday night into Monday, with at least low 60s F dewpoints into parts of OK/KS. Midlevel temperatures will remain relatively warm across the warm sector, but there is greater confidence in at least modest surface-based buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) developing across parts of west/central TX Sunday night, accompanied by an substantial increase in low-level and deep-layer shear. Isolated severe storm potential cannot be ruled out by late afternoon into early evening, but a notable increase in storm coverage is expected Sunday night. Extensive convection may result in a tendency toward a linear/QLCS mode, but intense deep-layer flow and increasing low-level shear will support a threat of severe wind gusts along with some tornado potential. A 15% area has been added for D4/Sunday, where intensifying flow is forecast to overlap sufficient instability amid as deep convection increases in coverage Sunday night. Some severe threat may persist from late D4/Sunday into at least early D5/Monday, as the shortwave and attendant surface low continue to eject northeastward. Uncertainty increases at this time range regarding the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat on D5/Monday, as richer low-level moisture potentially gets pinched off from the stronger ascent from the ejecting shortwave trough, and buoyancy becomes increasingly weak across the warm sector. Intense wind fields will support some severe-wind and tornado potential where convection can remain surface-based. There also may be some potential for renewed storm development Monday afternoon in the immediate vicinity of the ejecting shortwave and surface low across the central Plains (as suggested in the 14/00Z ECMWF), though this scenario remains quite uncertain. A small 15% area has been included for D5/Monday, as a continuation of the threat that begins late D4/Sunday. Depending on destabilization trends during the day on Monday, probabilities may eventually need to be expanded to the north and/or east of this area. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Some severe threat could linger on D6/Tuesday in the vicinity of the MS Valley, though model spread increases substantially at this range regarding the evolution of the upper-level pattern and occluding cyclone over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Otherwise, Tropical Depression 19 has formed across the Caribbean, with the NHC forecast track suggesting this system may eventually approach some portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Uncertainty remains very high regarding any severe threat with this system into mid/late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday into D5/Monday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a mid/upper-level shortwave trough/closed low will move eastward across parts of the Southwest/northern Mexico through the day Sunday. This system will eject northeastward as a negatively tilted shortwave trough Sunday evening into Monday, accompanied by intense deep-layer flow fields and significant surface cyclogenesis. Meanwhile, recent guidance has trended toward somewhat richer low-level moisture return, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading into parts of southwest/central/north TX Sunday night into Monday, with at least low 60s F dewpoints into parts of OK/KS. Midlevel temperatures will remain relatively warm across the warm sector, but there is greater confidence in at least modest surface-based buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) developing across parts of west/central TX Sunday night, accompanied by an substantial increase in low-level and deep-layer shear. Isolated severe storm potential cannot be ruled out by late afternoon into early evening, but a notable increase in storm coverage is expected Sunday night. Extensive convection may result in a tendency toward a linear/QLCS mode, but intense deep-layer flow and increasing low-level shear will support a threat of severe wind gusts along with some tornado potential. A 15% area has been added for D4/Sunday, where intensifying flow is forecast to overlap sufficient instability amid as deep convection increases in coverage Sunday night. Some severe threat may persist from late D4/Sunday into at least early D5/Monday, as the shortwave and attendant surface low continue to eject northeastward. Uncertainty increases at this time range regarding the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat on D5/Monday, as richer low-level moisture potentially gets pinched off from the stronger ascent from the ejecting shortwave trough, and buoyancy becomes increasingly weak across the warm sector. Intense wind fields will support some severe-wind and tornado potential where convection can remain surface-based. There also may be some potential for renewed storm development Monday afternoon in the immediate vicinity of the ejecting shortwave and surface low across the central Plains (as suggested in the 14/00Z ECMWF), though this scenario remains quite uncertain. A small 15% area has been included for D5/Monday, as a continuation of the threat that begins late D4/Sunday. Depending on destabilization trends during the day on Monday, probabilities may eventually need to be expanded to the north and/or east of this area. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Some severe threat could linger on D6/Tuesday in the vicinity of the MS Valley, though model spread increases substantially at this range regarding the evolution of the upper-level pattern and occluding cyclone over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Otherwise, Tropical Depression 19 has formed across the Caribbean, with the NHC forecast track suggesting this system may eventually approach some portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Uncertainty remains very high regarding any severe threat with this system into mid/late next week. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave is forecast to emerge out of the deep trough across the West and move across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A trailing shortwave trough is expected to dig southeastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico, and potentially evolve into a mid/upper-level low by the end of the period. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains, as a surface ridge shifts eastward across much of the eastern CONUS. Early-stage moisture return is expected to commence across the southern Plains on Saturday, as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains low. This early moisture return is expected to be insufficient for any appreciable surface-based destabilization. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the Great Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A general thunderstorm area has been included for this isolated thunder potential, though uncertainty remains rather high. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave is forecast to emerge out of the deep trough across the West and move across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A trailing shortwave trough is expected to dig southeastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico, and potentially evolve into a mid/upper-level low by the end of the period. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains, as a surface ridge shifts eastward across much of the eastern CONUS. Early-stage moisture return is expected to commence across the southern Plains on Saturday, as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains low. This early moisture return is expected to be insufficient for any appreciable surface-based destabilization. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the Great Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A general thunderstorm area has been included for this isolated thunder potential, though uncertainty remains rather high. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave is forecast to emerge out of the deep trough across the West and move across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A trailing shortwave trough is expected to dig southeastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico, and potentially evolve into a mid/upper-level low by the end of the period. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains, as a surface ridge shifts eastward across much of the eastern CONUS. Early-stage moisture return is expected to commence across the southern Plains on Saturday, as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains low. This early moisture return is expected to be insufficient for any appreciable surface-based destabilization. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the Great Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A general thunderstorm area has been included for this isolated thunder potential, though uncertainty remains rather high. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave is forecast to emerge out of the deep trough across the West and move across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A trailing shortwave trough is expected to dig southeastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico, and potentially evolve into a mid/upper-level low by the end of the period. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains, as a surface ridge shifts eastward across much of the eastern CONUS. Early-stage moisture return is expected to commence across the southern Plains on Saturday, as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains low. This early moisture return is expected to be insufficient for any appreciable surface-based destabilization. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the Great Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A general thunderstorm area has been included for this isolated thunder potential, though uncertainty remains rather high. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave is forecast to emerge out of the deep trough across the West and move across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A trailing shortwave trough is expected to dig southeastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico, and potentially evolve into a mid/upper-level low by the end of the period. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains, as a surface ridge shifts eastward across much of the eastern CONUS. Early-stage moisture return is expected to commence across the southern Plains on Saturday, as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains low. This early moisture return is expected to be insufficient for any appreciable surface-based destabilization. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the Great Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A general thunderstorm area has been included for this isolated thunder potential, though uncertainty remains rather high. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more