Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...Mid-Atlantic/New England The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made across the New England region. Surface and VWP observations show low-level winds are gradually weakening across the broader Mid-Atlantic/New England region, and this trend should continue as a surface high migrates east through the day. However, given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours and very dry conditions (RH values are already falling into the low 30s and upper 20s per 16 UTC observations), the fire weather highlight is maintained/expanded into areas with recent fire activity. ...West Virginia... Dry conditions remain likely on the northern/northwestern slopes of the southern to central Appalachians today as winds gradually become more southeasterly. Some high-res solutions hint that areas of elevated to critical conditions are possible within the higher terrain of the southern Allegheny Mountains and the Potomac Highlands, and appear most likely through the Monongahela National Forest where a few stations are already reporting elevated conditions. However, the presence of the synoptic surface high suggests that while very dry conditions are likely, winds should remain benign away from the terrain. Gradient winds should increase near/after sunset in response to an approaching surface low from the southwest, but this should be temporally displaced from afternoon RH minimums. 12z guidance generally supports this idea, casting uncertainty onto the spatial extent of elevated/critical conditions. While the fire weather potential is noted, highlights are withheld due to coverage concerns. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Northeast/New England... Gusty post-frontal offshore flow will continue across the northeastern US today, with potential for relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent and northwesterly winds around 10 mph gusting 20-25 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. Winds should gradually weaken through the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the region. ...Appalachians Tennessee/North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia Border... Strong southeast winds further enhanced by downslope flow will bring areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Appalachians near the TN/NC border through the WV/VA border. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent may overlap with enhanced flow in favored north facing slopes. Wetting rainfall will overspread this region Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...Mid-Atlantic/New England The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made across the New England region. Surface and VWP observations show low-level winds are gradually weakening across the broader Mid-Atlantic/New England region, and this trend should continue as a surface high migrates east through the day. However, given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours and very dry conditions (RH values are already falling into the low 30s and upper 20s per 16 UTC observations), the fire weather highlight is maintained/expanded into areas with recent fire activity. ...West Virginia... Dry conditions remain likely on the northern/northwestern slopes of the southern to central Appalachians today as winds gradually become more southeasterly. Some high-res solutions hint that areas of elevated to critical conditions are possible within the higher terrain of the southern Allegheny Mountains and the Potomac Highlands, and appear most likely through the Monongahela National Forest where a few stations are already reporting elevated conditions. However, the presence of the synoptic surface high suggests that while very dry conditions are likely, winds should remain benign away from the terrain. Gradient winds should increase near/after sunset in response to an approaching surface low from the southwest, but this should be temporally displaced from afternoon RH minimums. 12z guidance generally supports this idea, casting uncertainty onto the spatial extent of elevated/critical conditions. While the fire weather potential is noted, highlights are withheld due to coverage concerns. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Northeast/New England... Gusty post-frontal offshore flow will continue across the northeastern US today, with potential for relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent and northwesterly winds around 10 mph gusting 20-25 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. Winds should gradually weaken through the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the region. ...Appalachians Tennessee/North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia Border... Strong southeast winds further enhanced by downslope flow will bring areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Appalachians near the TN/NC border through the WV/VA border. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent may overlap with enhanced flow in favored north facing slopes. Wetting rainfall will overspread this region Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...Mid-Atlantic/New England The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made across the New England region. Surface and VWP observations show low-level winds are gradually weakening across the broader Mid-Atlantic/New England region, and this trend should continue as a surface high migrates east through the day. However, given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours and very dry conditions (RH values are already falling into the low 30s and upper 20s per 16 UTC observations), the fire weather highlight is maintained/expanded into areas with recent fire activity. ...West Virginia... Dry conditions remain likely on the northern/northwestern slopes of the southern to central Appalachians today as winds gradually become more southeasterly. Some high-res solutions hint that areas of elevated to critical conditions are possible within the higher terrain of the southern Allegheny Mountains and the Potomac Highlands, and appear most likely through the Monongahela National Forest where a few stations are already reporting elevated conditions. However, the presence of the synoptic surface high suggests that while very dry conditions are likely, winds should remain benign away from the terrain. Gradient winds should increase near/after sunset in response to an approaching surface low from the southwest, but this should be temporally displaced from afternoon RH minimums. 12z guidance generally supports this idea, casting uncertainty onto the spatial extent of elevated/critical conditions. While the fire weather potential is noted, highlights are withheld due to coverage concerns. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Northeast/New England... Gusty post-frontal offshore flow will continue across the northeastern US today, with potential for relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent and northwesterly winds around 10 mph gusting 20-25 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. Winds should gradually weaken through the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the region. ...Appalachians Tennessee/North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia Border... Strong southeast winds further enhanced by downslope flow will bring areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Appalachians near the TN/NC border through the WV/VA border. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent may overlap with enhanced flow in favored north facing slopes. Wetting rainfall will overspread this region Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...Mid-Atlantic/New England The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made across the New England region. Surface and VWP observations show low-level winds are gradually weakening across the broader Mid-Atlantic/New England region, and this trend should continue as a surface high migrates east through the day. However, given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours and very dry conditions (RH values are already falling into the low 30s and upper 20s per 16 UTC observations), the fire weather highlight is maintained/expanded into areas with recent fire activity. ...West Virginia... Dry conditions remain likely on the northern/northwestern slopes of the southern to central Appalachians today as winds gradually become more southeasterly. Some high-res solutions hint that areas of elevated to critical conditions are possible within the higher terrain of the southern Allegheny Mountains and the Potomac Highlands, and appear most likely through the Monongahela National Forest where a few stations are already reporting elevated conditions. However, the presence of the synoptic surface high suggests that while very dry conditions are likely, winds should remain benign away from the terrain. Gradient winds should increase near/after sunset in response to an approaching surface low from the southwest, but this should be temporally displaced from afternoon RH minimums. 12z guidance generally supports this idea, casting uncertainty onto the spatial extent of elevated/critical conditions. While the fire weather potential is noted, highlights are withheld due to coverage concerns. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Northeast/New England... Gusty post-frontal offshore flow will continue across the northeastern US today, with potential for relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent and northwesterly winds around 10 mph gusting 20-25 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. Winds should gradually weaken through the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the region. ...Appalachians Tennessee/North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia Border... Strong southeast winds further enhanced by downslope flow will bring areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Appalachians near the TN/NC border through the WV/VA border. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent may overlap with enhanced flow in favored north facing slopes. Wetting rainfall will overspread this region Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...Mid-Atlantic/New England The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made across the New England region. Surface and VWP observations show low-level winds are gradually weakening across the broader Mid-Atlantic/New England region, and this trend should continue as a surface high migrates east through the day. However, given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours and very dry conditions (RH values are already falling into the low 30s and upper 20s per 16 UTC observations), the fire weather highlight is maintained/expanded into areas with recent fire activity. ...West Virginia... Dry conditions remain likely on the northern/northwestern slopes of the southern to central Appalachians today as winds gradually become more southeasterly. Some high-res solutions hint that areas of elevated to critical conditions are possible within the higher terrain of the southern Allegheny Mountains and the Potomac Highlands, and appear most likely through the Monongahela National Forest where a few stations are already reporting elevated conditions. However, the presence of the synoptic surface high suggests that while very dry conditions are likely, winds should remain benign away from the terrain. Gradient winds should increase near/after sunset in response to an approaching surface low from the southwest, but this should be temporally displaced from afternoon RH minimums. 12z guidance generally supports this idea, casting uncertainty onto the spatial extent of elevated/critical conditions. While the fire weather potential is noted, highlights are withheld due to coverage concerns. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Northeast/New England... Gusty post-frontal offshore flow will continue across the northeastern US today, with potential for relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent and northwesterly winds around 10 mph gusting 20-25 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. Winds should gradually weaken through the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the region. ...Appalachians Tennessee/North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia Border... Strong southeast winds further enhanced by downslope flow will bring areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Appalachians near the TN/NC border through the WV/VA border. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent may overlap with enhanced flow in favored north facing slopes. Wetting rainfall will overspread this region Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...Mid-Atlantic/New England The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made across the New England region. Surface and VWP observations show low-level winds are gradually weakening across the broader Mid-Atlantic/New England region, and this trend should continue as a surface high migrates east through the day. However, given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours and very dry conditions (RH values are already falling into the low 30s and upper 20s per 16 UTC observations), the fire weather highlight is maintained/expanded into areas with recent fire activity. ...West Virginia... Dry conditions remain likely on the northern/northwestern slopes of the southern to central Appalachians today as winds gradually become more southeasterly. Some high-res solutions hint that areas of elevated to critical conditions are possible within the higher terrain of the southern Allegheny Mountains and the Potomac Highlands, and appear most likely through the Monongahela National Forest where a few stations are already reporting elevated conditions. However, the presence of the synoptic surface high suggests that while very dry conditions are likely, winds should remain benign away from the terrain. Gradient winds should increase near/after sunset in response to an approaching surface low from the southwest, but this should be temporally displaced from afternoon RH minimums. 12z guidance generally supports this idea, casting uncertainty onto the spatial extent of elevated/critical conditions. While the fire weather potential is noted, highlights are withheld due to coverage concerns. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Northeast/New England... Gusty post-frontal offshore flow will continue across the northeastern US today, with potential for relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent and northwesterly winds around 10 mph gusting 20-25 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. Winds should gradually weaken through the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the region. ...Appalachians Tennessee/North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia Border... Strong southeast winds further enhanced by downslope flow will bring areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Appalachians near the TN/NC border through the WV/VA border. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent may overlap with enhanced flow in favored north facing slopes. Wetting rainfall will overspread this region Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...Mid-Atlantic/New England The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made across the New England region. Surface and VWP observations show low-level winds are gradually weakening across the broader Mid-Atlantic/New England region, and this trend should continue as a surface high migrates east through the day. However, given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours and very dry conditions (RH values are already falling into the low 30s and upper 20s per 16 UTC observations), the fire weather highlight is maintained/expanded into areas with recent fire activity. ...West Virginia... Dry conditions remain likely on the northern/northwestern slopes of the southern to central Appalachians today as winds gradually become more southeasterly. Some high-res solutions hint that areas of elevated to critical conditions are possible within the higher terrain of the southern Allegheny Mountains and the Potomac Highlands, and appear most likely through the Monongahela National Forest where a few stations are already reporting elevated conditions. However, the presence of the synoptic surface high suggests that while very dry conditions are likely, winds should remain benign away from the terrain. Gradient winds should increase near/after sunset in response to an approaching surface low from the southwest, but this should be temporally displaced from afternoon RH minimums. 12z guidance generally supports this idea, casting uncertainty onto the spatial extent of elevated/critical conditions. While the fire weather potential is noted, highlights are withheld due to coverage concerns. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Northeast/New England... Gusty post-frontal offshore flow will continue across the northeastern US today, with potential for relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent and northwesterly winds around 10 mph gusting 20-25 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. Winds should gradually weaken through the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the region. ...Appalachians Tennessee/North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia Border... Strong southeast winds further enhanced by downslope flow will bring areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Appalachians near the TN/NC border through the WV/VA border. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent may overlap with enhanced flow in favored north facing slopes. Wetting rainfall will overspread this region Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...Mid-Atlantic/New England The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made across the New England region. Surface and VWP observations show low-level winds are gradually weakening across the broader Mid-Atlantic/New England region, and this trend should continue as a surface high migrates east through the day. However, given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours and very dry conditions (RH values are already falling into the low 30s and upper 20s per 16 UTC observations), the fire weather highlight is maintained/expanded into areas with recent fire activity. ...West Virginia... Dry conditions remain likely on the northern/northwestern slopes of the southern to central Appalachians today as winds gradually become more southeasterly. Some high-res solutions hint that areas of elevated to critical conditions are possible within the higher terrain of the southern Allegheny Mountains and the Potomac Highlands, and appear most likely through the Monongahela National Forest where a few stations are already reporting elevated conditions. However, the presence of the synoptic surface high suggests that while very dry conditions are likely, winds should remain benign away from the terrain. Gradient winds should increase near/after sunset in response to an approaching surface low from the southwest, but this should be temporally displaced from afternoon RH minimums. 12z guidance generally supports this idea, casting uncertainty onto the spatial extent of elevated/critical conditions. While the fire weather potential is noted, highlights are withheld due to coverage concerns. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Northeast/New England... Gusty post-frontal offshore flow will continue across the northeastern US today, with potential for relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent and northwesterly winds around 10 mph gusting 20-25 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. Winds should gradually weaken through the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the region. ...Appalachians Tennessee/North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia Border... Strong southeast winds further enhanced by downslope flow will bring areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Appalachians near the TN/NC border through the WV/VA border. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent may overlap with enhanced flow in favored north facing slopes. Wetting rainfall will overspread this region Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/13/2024 Read more