Aggregator

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move into the Dakotas on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place across the much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from the afternoon into the overnight within a broad a corridor of strong low-level flow from Kansas northeastward into the upper Great Lakes. Instability is expected to be minimal, and a severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move into the Dakotas on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place across the much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from the afternoon into the overnight within a broad a corridor of strong low-level flow from Kansas northeastward into the upper Great Lakes. Instability is expected to be minimal, and a severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move into the Dakotas on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place across the much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from the afternoon into the overnight within a broad a corridor of strong low-level flow from Kansas northeastward into the upper Great Lakes. Instability is expected to be minimal, and a severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move into the Dakotas on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place across the much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from the afternoon into the overnight within a broad a corridor of strong low-level flow from Kansas northeastward into the upper Great Lakes. Instability is expected to be minimal, and a severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low today. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS today. Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the start of the period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low today. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS today. Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the start of the period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low today. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS today. Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the start of the period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low today. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS today. Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the start of the period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this tonight. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max digging across the southern Appalachians will translate across the Carolinas tonight. This feature will induce cyclogenesis along a coastal boundary, and the deepening low should track northeast, just off the NC coast later this evening. Weak convection is currently noted along the wind shift from southeast SC into extreme southern NC. As the front sharpens, this activity may continue to deepen and lightning is expected to develop as updrafts penetrate colder temperatures. Earlier thoughts regarding a low risk for severe continue. Strongly sheared environment remains conducive for updraft organization, and there is some potential near-coastal convection could briefly attain severe levels before moving offshore. Even so, any severe threat will remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this tonight. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max digging across the southern Appalachians will translate across the Carolinas tonight. This feature will induce cyclogenesis along a coastal boundary, and the deepening low should track northeast, just off the NC coast later this evening. Weak convection is currently noted along the wind shift from southeast SC into extreme southern NC. As the front sharpens, this activity may continue to deepen and lightning is expected to develop as updrafts penetrate colder temperatures. Earlier thoughts regarding a low risk for severe continue. Strongly sheared environment remains conducive for updraft organization, and there is some potential near-coastal convection could briefly attain severe levels before moving offshore. Even so, any severe threat will remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 11/15/2024 Read more