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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns remain likely along portions of the New England late this weekend and the southern California coast into the middle portions of the upcoming work week. Long-range guidance continues to depict an active upper-level regime heading into next week, characterized by progressive, potentially high-amplitude, waves. The upper trough currently over the western CONUS is forecast to gradually deepen over the next 48 hours before ejecting into the Plains late this weekend. Strong surface winds will accompany widespread precipitation chances across the Plains and Midwest as this occurs. These rain chances, followed by a continental/cold air intrusion across the central U.S. early next week, will limit fire concerns for much of the country. Fire concerns will likely be confined to the New England and southern CA coasts where fuels remain dry. ...D3/Sunday - New England... The offshore flow regime currently in place across the New England region is expected to persist through late D3/Sunday. However, winds are expected to gradually diminish through the D3 period as the surface low currently off the East Coast migrates further into the Atlantic and a surface high builds across the eastern third of the country. Despite weakening gradient winds, very dry conditions and dry fuels are expected to linger for the next several days, and should support some fire concerns during the afternoon hours when boundary-layer mixing will support occasional gusts up to 15-20 mph. ...D5/Tue to D6/Wed - southern CA Coast... The signal for an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast persists in latest long-range ensemble guidance for the D5/Tue to D6/Wed period. However, the magnitude of the expected surface high across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies has steadily trended down in nearly all GEFS/ECENS ensemble members over the past 48 hours. Similarly, deterministic DAG-LAX pressure gradient forecasts have trended towards elevated, rather than critical, thresholds. These trends indicate that offshore winds may not be quite as intense as previously anticipated; however, the consistent nature of the signal over the past few days suggests that a fire weather concern will likely emerge even if the intensity of the winds is less certain at this time. For this reason, the 40% risk probability highlights are maintained, and further upgrades to higher probabilities remain possible if guidance trends back towards an unseasonably strong surface high (1040-1045 mb) and a more intense offshore pressure gradient. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns remain likely along portions of the New England late this weekend and the southern California coast into the middle portions of the upcoming work week. Long-range guidance continues to depict an active upper-level regime heading into next week, characterized by progressive, potentially high-amplitude, waves. The upper trough currently over the western CONUS is forecast to gradually deepen over the next 48 hours before ejecting into the Plains late this weekend. Strong surface winds will accompany widespread precipitation chances across the Plains and Midwest as this occurs. These rain chances, followed by a continental/cold air intrusion across the central U.S. early next week, will limit fire concerns for much of the country. Fire concerns will likely be confined to the New England and southern CA coasts where fuels remain dry. ...D3/Sunday - New England... The offshore flow regime currently in place across the New England region is expected to persist through late D3/Sunday. However, winds are expected to gradually diminish through the D3 period as the surface low currently off the East Coast migrates further into the Atlantic and a surface high builds across the eastern third of the country. Despite weakening gradient winds, very dry conditions and dry fuels are expected to linger for the next several days, and should support some fire concerns during the afternoon hours when boundary-layer mixing will support occasional gusts up to 15-20 mph. ...D5/Tue to D6/Wed - southern CA Coast... The signal for an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast persists in latest long-range ensemble guidance for the D5/Tue to D6/Wed period. However, the magnitude of the expected surface high across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies has steadily trended down in nearly all GEFS/ECENS ensemble members over the past 48 hours. Similarly, deterministic DAG-LAX pressure gradient forecasts have trended towards elevated, rather than critical, thresholds. These trends indicate that offshore winds may not be quite as intense as previously anticipated; however, the consistent nature of the signal over the past few days suggests that a fire weather concern will likely emerge even if the intensity of the winds is less certain at this time. For this reason, the 40% risk probability highlights are maintained, and further upgrades to higher probabilities remain possible if guidance trends back towards an unseasonably strong surface high (1040-1045 mb) and a more intense offshore pressure gradient. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into Monday morning, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to deepen/mature as it progresses eastward across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains on Sunday. By early Monday morning, expectation is for this shortwave to have matured into an mid-latitude cyclone, with the mid-level circulation centered over southeast NM and associated surface low farther northeast over southwest OK/far northwest TX. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with a 80-100 kt 500-mb jet rounding the base of the system and ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Substantial mass response will precede this wave, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated across the southern Plains. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach the Permian Basin/TX South Plains ahead the surface low (and attendant dryline and cold front) associated with this system. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, only modest destabilization is anticipated (i.e. MLCAPE less than 800 J/kg), owing predominantly to poor lapse rates. This minimal buoyancy will be countered by strong large-scale forcing for ascent as the wave becomes increasingly negatively tilted. 12-hr height falls from 120 to 150 m are anticipated over much of the southern High Plains from 00Z to 12Z Monday. Elevated thunderstorm development is expected first across southeast NM/far west TX early Sunday evening. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase eastward/northeastward throughout the evening while the surface low deepens and its associated cold front begins to overtake the preceding drying and sharpen. This cold front is then forecast to move quickly eastward across west TX early Monday morning, with strong to severe thunderstorm anticipated along this front. A linear storm mode is anticipated, with strong gusts as the primary risk. A few embedded QLCS circulations are possible as well, particularly near the surface low where some backing of the low-level winds is more plausible. Given the robust low to mid-level flow, there may be a corridor of relatively greater severe potential where buoyancy, lift, and overall convective evolution align. However, given confidence in these mesoscale details is low at this forecast range, will maintain 15%/Slight-risk-equivalent with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into Monday morning, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to deepen/mature as it progresses eastward across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains on Sunday. By early Monday morning, expectation is for this shortwave to have matured into an mid-latitude cyclone, with the mid-level circulation centered over southeast NM and associated surface low farther northeast over southwest OK/far northwest TX. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with a 80-100 kt 500-mb jet rounding the base of the system and ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Substantial mass response will precede this wave, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated across the southern Plains. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach the Permian Basin/TX South Plains ahead the surface low (and attendant dryline and cold front) associated with this system. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, only modest destabilization is anticipated (i.e. MLCAPE less than 800 J/kg), owing predominantly to poor lapse rates. This minimal buoyancy will be countered by strong large-scale forcing for ascent as the wave becomes increasingly negatively tilted. 12-hr height falls from 120 to 150 m are anticipated over much of the southern High Plains from 00Z to 12Z Monday. Elevated thunderstorm development is expected first across southeast NM/far west TX early Sunday evening. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase eastward/northeastward throughout the evening while the surface low deepens and its associated cold front begins to overtake the preceding drying and sharpen. This cold front is then forecast to move quickly eastward across west TX early Monday morning, with strong to severe thunderstorm anticipated along this front. A linear storm mode is anticipated, with strong gusts as the primary risk. A few embedded QLCS circulations are possible as well, particularly near the surface low where some backing of the low-level winds is more plausible. Given the robust low to mid-level flow, there may be a corridor of relatively greater severe potential where buoyancy, lift, and overall convective evolution align. However, given confidence in these mesoscale details is low at this forecast range, will maintain 15%/Slight-risk-equivalent with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into Monday morning, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to deepen/mature as it progresses eastward across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains on Sunday. By early Monday morning, expectation is for this shortwave to have matured into an mid-latitude cyclone, with the mid-level circulation centered over southeast NM and associated surface low farther northeast over southwest OK/far northwest TX. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with a 80-100 kt 500-mb jet rounding the base of the system and ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Substantial mass response will precede this wave, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated across the southern Plains. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach the Permian Basin/TX South Plains ahead the surface low (and attendant dryline and cold front) associated with this system. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, only modest destabilization is anticipated (i.e. MLCAPE less than 800 J/kg), owing predominantly to poor lapse rates. This minimal buoyancy will be countered by strong large-scale forcing for ascent as the wave becomes increasingly negatively tilted. 12-hr height falls from 120 to 150 m are anticipated over much of the southern High Plains from 00Z to 12Z Monday. Elevated thunderstorm development is expected first across southeast NM/far west TX early Sunday evening. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase eastward/northeastward throughout the evening while the surface low deepens and its associated cold front begins to overtake the preceding drying and sharpen. This cold front is then forecast to move quickly eastward across west TX early Monday morning, with strong to severe thunderstorm anticipated along this front. A linear storm mode is anticipated, with strong gusts as the primary risk. A few embedded QLCS circulations are possible as well, particularly near the surface low where some backing of the low-level winds is more plausible. Given the robust low to mid-level flow, there may be a corridor of relatively greater severe potential where buoyancy, lift, and overall convective evolution align. However, given confidence in these mesoscale details is low at this forecast range, will maintain 15%/Slight-risk-equivalent with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into Monday morning, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to deepen/mature as it progresses eastward across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains on Sunday. By early Monday morning, expectation is for this shortwave to have matured into an mid-latitude cyclone, with the mid-level circulation centered over southeast NM and associated surface low farther northeast over southwest OK/far northwest TX. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with a 80-100 kt 500-mb jet rounding the base of the system and ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Substantial mass response will precede this wave, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated across the southern Plains. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach the Permian Basin/TX South Plains ahead the surface low (and attendant dryline and cold front) associated with this system. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, only modest destabilization is anticipated (i.e. MLCAPE less than 800 J/kg), owing predominantly to poor lapse rates. This minimal buoyancy will be countered by strong large-scale forcing for ascent as the wave becomes increasingly negatively tilted. 12-hr height falls from 120 to 150 m are anticipated over much of the southern High Plains from 00Z to 12Z Monday. Elevated thunderstorm development is expected first across southeast NM/far west TX early Sunday evening. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase eastward/northeastward throughout the evening while the surface low deepens and its associated cold front begins to overtake the preceding drying and sharpen. This cold front is then forecast to move quickly eastward across west TX early Monday morning, with strong to severe thunderstorm anticipated along this front. A linear storm mode is anticipated, with strong gusts as the primary risk. A few embedded QLCS circulations are possible as well, particularly near the surface low where some backing of the low-level winds is more plausible. Given the robust low to mid-level flow, there may be a corridor of relatively greater severe potential where buoyancy, lift, and overall convective evolution align. However, given confidence in these mesoscale details is low at this forecast range, will maintain 15%/Slight-risk-equivalent with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into Monday morning, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to deepen/mature as it progresses eastward across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains on Sunday. By early Monday morning, expectation is for this shortwave to have matured into an mid-latitude cyclone, with the mid-level circulation centered over southeast NM and associated surface low farther northeast over southwest OK/far northwest TX. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with a 80-100 kt 500-mb jet rounding the base of the system and ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Substantial mass response will precede this wave, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated across the southern Plains. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach the Permian Basin/TX South Plains ahead the surface low (and attendant dryline and cold front) associated with this system. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, only modest destabilization is anticipated (i.e. MLCAPE less than 800 J/kg), owing predominantly to poor lapse rates. This minimal buoyancy will be countered by strong large-scale forcing for ascent as the wave becomes increasingly negatively tilted. 12-hr height falls from 120 to 150 m are anticipated over much of the southern High Plains from 00Z to 12Z Monday. Elevated thunderstorm development is expected first across southeast NM/far west TX early Sunday evening. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase eastward/northeastward throughout the evening while the surface low deepens and its associated cold front begins to overtake the preceding drying and sharpen. This cold front is then forecast to move quickly eastward across west TX early Monday morning, with strong to severe thunderstorm anticipated along this front. A linear storm mode is anticipated, with strong gusts as the primary risk. A few embedded QLCS circulations are possible as well, particularly near the surface low where some backing of the low-level winds is more plausible. Given the robust low to mid-level flow, there may be a corridor of relatively greater severe potential where buoyancy, lift, and overall convective evolution align. However, given confidence in these mesoscale details is low at this forecast range, will maintain 15%/Slight-risk-equivalent with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest high-res guidance. Overall, elevated to localized/transient fire weather conditions remain likely as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest high-res guidance. Overall, elevated to localized/transient fire weather conditions remain likely as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest high-res guidance. Overall, elevated to localized/transient fire weather conditions remain likely as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest high-res guidance. Overall, elevated to localized/transient fire weather conditions remain likely as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest high-res guidance. Overall, elevated to localized/transient fire weather conditions remain likely as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the southern CA/northern Baja Coast, covering much of the western/central CONUS early Saturday morning. The mean upper trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward throughout the day while a pair of embedded shortwave troughs evolve eastward/southeastward. The northernmost shortwave will likely progress across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest while the southernmost wave progresses southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection farther north, beginning across parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening and continuing into the Upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Highest coverage is expected across WI early Sunday morning. Limited buoyancy throughout these areas will keep storm strength modest and keeping the severe-thunderstorm threat low. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the southern CA/northern Baja Coast, covering much of the western/central CONUS early Saturday morning. The mean upper trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward throughout the day while a pair of embedded shortwave troughs evolve eastward/southeastward. The northernmost shortwave will likely progress across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest while the southernmost wave progresses southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection farther north, beginning across parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening and continuing into the Upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Highest coverage is expected across WI early Sunday morning. Limited buoyancy throughout these areas will keep storm strength modest and keeping the severe-thunderstorm threat low. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more