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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern High Plains... A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the 50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening into Sunday night. Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line. Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain strong convective development with the MCS. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern High Plains... A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the 50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening into Sunday night. Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line. Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain strong convective development with the MCS. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern High Plains... A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the 50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening into Sunday night. Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line. Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain strong convective development with the MCS. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern High Plains... A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the 50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening into Sunday night. Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line. Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain strong convective development with the MCS. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes. ...Discussion... Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing across the western US late this evening. This feature is forecast to bifurcate with a notable northern short wave expected to shift into the upper MS Valley late, while a southern branch settles south across the lower CO River Valley. Strongest mid-level height falls will spread across the northern Plains/upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, and this should encourage low-level warm advection to focus across the upper Great Lakes as LLJ strengthens into western WI by 17/00z. Latest model guidance does not suggest significant boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the synoptic front, with 0-3km lapse rates expected to remain rather weak from KS, northeast into WI. While frontal convergence will contribute to isolated convection, the primary focus for deep, sustained updrafts will be across WI where the strongest forcing/low-level warm advection will be noted. Primary concern for lightning will be with elevated activity during the later half of the period, though a few flashes could be noted with trailing frontal showers. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes. ...Discussion... Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing across the western US late this evening. This feature is forecast to bifurcate with a notable northern short wave expected to shift into the upper MS Valley late, while a southern branch settles south across the lower CO River Valley. Strongest mid-level height falls will spread across the northern Plains/upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, and this should encourage low-level warm advection to focus across the upper Great Lakes as LLJ strengthens into western WI by 17/00z. Latest model guidance does not suggest significant boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the synoptic front, with 0-3km lapse rates expected to remain rather weak from KS, northeast into WI. While frontal convergence will contribute to isolated convection, the primary focus for deep, sustained updrafts will be across WI where the strongest forcing/low-level warm advection will be noted. Primary concern for lightning will be with elevated activity during the later half of the period, though a few flashes could be noted with trailing frontal showers. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes. ...Discussion... Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing across the western US late this evening. This feature is forecast to bifurcate with a notable northern short wave expected to shift into the upper MS Valley late, while a southern branch settles south across the lower CO River Valley. Strongest mid-level height falls will spread across the northern Plains/upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, and this should encourage low-level warm advection to focus across the upper Great Lakes as LLJ strengthens into western WI by 17/00z. Latest model guidance does not suggest significant boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the synoptic front, with 0-3km lapse rates expected to remain rather weak from KS, northeast into WI. While frontal convergence will contribute to isolated convection, the primary focus for deep, sustained updrafts will be across WI where the strongest forcing/low-level warm advection will be noted. Primary concern for lightning will be with elevated activity during the later half of the period, though a few flashes could be noted with trailing frontal showers. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes. ...Discussion... Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing across the western US late this evening. This feature is forecast to bifurcate with a notable northern short wave expected to shift into the upper MS Valley late, while a southern branch settles south across the lower CO River Valley. Strongest mid-level height falls will spread across the northern Plains/upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, and this should encourage low-level warm advection to focus across the upper Great Lakes as LLJ strengthens into western WI by 17/00z. Latest model guidance does not suggest significant boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the synoptic front, with 0-3km lapse rates expected to remain rather weak from KS, northeast into WI. While frontal convergence will contribute to isolated convection, the primary focus for deep, sustained updrafts will be across WI where the strongest forcing/low-level warm advection will be noted. Primary concern for lightning will be with elevated activity during the later half of the period, though a few flashes could be noted with trailing frontal showers. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes. ...Discussion... Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing across the western US late this evening. This feature is forecast to bifurcate with a notable northern short wave expected to shift into the upper MS Valley late, while a southern branch settles south across the lower CO River Valley. Strongest mid-level height falls will spread across the northern Plains/upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, and this should encourage low-level warm advection to focus across the upper Great Lakes as LLJ strengthens into western WI by 17/00z. Latest model guidance does not suggest significant boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the synoptic front, with 0-3km lapse rates expected to remain rather weak from KS, northeast into WI. While frontal convergence will contribute to isolated convection, the primary focus for deep, sustained updrafts will be across WI where the strongest forcing/low-level warm advection will be noted. Primary concern for lightning will be with elevated activity during the later half of the period, though a few flashes could be noted with trailing frontal showers. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ..Wendt.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ..Wendt.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ..Wendt.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ..Wendt.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ..Wendt.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ..Wendt.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ..Wendt.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ..Wendt.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ..Wendt.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ..Wendt.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Threat for lightning remains low tonight. ...01z Update... Deep upper trough is advancing across the interior West early this evening. Cooling profiles and steepening mid-level lapse rates have contributed to weak buoyancy north of the main jet. As a result, scattered weak convection is currently noted from the San JOAQUIN Valley, across southern NV into southwest UT, along the surging cold front. Most of this activity will remain too shallow for lightning discharge, but a few flashes of lightning have been noted with the deepest updrafts. Nocturnal cooling will lead to weaker updrafts and the prospect for thunderstorms remains low tonight. ..Darrow.. 11/16/2024 Read more