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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ...Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ...Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ...Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ...Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ...Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ...Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ...Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The Elevated fire weather risk area across parts of New England has been maintained for this update despite recent high-res guidance suggesting wind speeds will be considerably weaker compared to today (Saturday) during peak heating. The risk area has been spatially reduced to highlight areas where ensemble guidance shows the best signal for RH values near 20% (namely portions of far southern NY, CT, and northern NJ). This region should also see the deepest boundary-layer mixing and the best potential for occasional gusts up to 15 mph. Additionally, fuels remain critically dry and should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The Elevated fire weather risk area across parts of New England has been maintained for this update despite recent high-res guidance suggesting wind speeds will be considerably weaker compared to today (Saturday) during peak heating. The risk area has been spatially reduced to highlight areas where ensemble guidance shows the best signal for RH values near 20% (namely portions of far southern NY, CT, and northern NJ). This region should also see the deepest boundary-layer mixing and the best potential for occasional gusts up to 15 mph. Additionally, fuels remain critically dry and should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The Elevated fire weather risk area across parts of New England has been maintained for this update despite recent high-res guidance suggesting wind speeds will be considerably weaker compared to today (Saturday) during peak heating. The risk area has been spatially reduced to highlight areas where ensemble guidance shows the best signal for RH values near 20% (namely portions of far southern NY, CT, and northern NJ). This region should also see the deepest boundary-layer mixing and the best potential for occasional gusts up to 15 mph. Additionally, fuels remain critically dry and should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The Elevated fire weather risk area across parts of New England has been maintained for this update despite recent high-res guidance suggesting wind speeds will be considerably weaker compared to today (Saturday) during peak heating. The risk area has been spatially reduced to highlight areas where ensemble guidance shows the best signal for RH values near 20% (namely portions of far southern NY, CT, and northern NJ). This region should also see the deepest boundary-layer mixing and the best potential for occasional gusts up to 15 mph. Additionally, fuels remain critically dry and should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The Elevated fire weather risk area across parts of New England has been maintained for this update despite recent high-res guidance suggesting wind speeds will be considerably weaker compared to today (Saturday) during peak heating. The risk area has been spatially reduced to highlight areas where ensemble guidance shows the best signal for RH values near 20% (namely portions of far southern NY, CT, and northern NJ). This region should also see the deepest boundary-layer mixing and the best potential for occasional gusts up to 15 mph. Additionally, fuels remain critically dry and should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The Elevated fire weather risk area across parts of New England has been maintained for this update despite recent high-res guidance suggesting wind speeds will be considerably weaker compared to today (Saturday) during peak heating. The risk area has been spatially reduced to highlight areas where ensemble guidance shows the best signal for RH values near 20% (namely portions of far southern NY, CT, and northern NJ). This region should also see the deepest boundary-layer mixing and the best potential for occasional gusts up to 15 mph. Additionally, fuels remain critically dry and should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The Elevated fire weather risk area across parts of New England has been maintained for this update despite recent high-res guidance suggesting wind speeds will be considerably weaker compared to today (Saturday) during peak heating. The risk area has been spatially reduced to highlight areas where ensemble guidance shows the best signal for RH values near 20% (namely portions of far southern NY, CT, and northern NJ). This region should also see the deepest boundary-layer mixing and the best potential for occasional gusts up to 15 mph. Additionally, fuels remain critically dry and should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday) into tomorrow night as a second mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. By tomorrow night into early Monday morning, surface low development is expected across western TX as strong upper support and an 80 kt mid-level speed max overspread the southern Plains. Low-level warm-air advection accompanying the developing surface low will support modest boundary-layer destabilization across central TX into southern OK, where adequate lift and shear will support some potential for severe thunderstorms. ...Southern Plains - Sunday Night into early Monday Morning... By around 06Z Monday morning, a surface low should begin to materialize just south of the TX Panhandle with the ejection of the aforementioned mid-level trough. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, modest surface-850 mb theta-e advection will support a corridor of 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE across central TX into extreme southern OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Given strong forcing for ascent and south-southwesterly 500 mb flow oriented roughly parallel with an approaching cold front, a squall line is expected to develop and advance northeast in tandem with the surface low. Modest veering but rapid strengthening with height of the vertical wind profile will support large, curved hodographs ahead of the squall line. 0-500 m SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH reaching 400 m2/s2 in spots. However, questions remain regarding how much SRH can be effectively ingested into thunderstorm updrafts given scant buoyancy profiles. Still, effective downward momentum transport of the strong synoptic flow aloft may support severe gusts within the squall line. Furthermore, if strong enough low-level WAA can appreciably destabilize the nocturnal boundary-layer, then isolated QLCS tornadoes may also occur. Any QLCS tornadoes that can develop will most likely occur with any LEWPS or mesovortices within portions of the squall line preceding the surface low track, where low-level winds will be most backed and low-level shear will be strongest. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday) into tomorrow night as a second mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. By tomorrow night into early Monday morning, surface low development is expected across western TX as strong upper support and an 80 kt mid-level speed max overspread the southern Plains. Low-level warm-air advection accompanying the developing surface low will support modest boundary-layer destabilization across central TX into southern OK, where adequate lift and shear will support some potential for severe thunderstorms. ...Southern Plains - Sunday Night into early Monday Morning... By around 06Z Monday morning, a surface low should begin to materialize just south of the TX Panhandle with the ejection of the aforementioned mid-level trough. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, modest surface-850 mb theta-e advection will support a corridor of 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE across central TX into extreme southern OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Given strong forcing for ascent and south-southwesterly 500 mb flow oriented roughly parallel with an approaching cold front, a squall line is expected to develop and advance northeast in tandem with the surface low. Modest veering but rapid strengthening with height of the vertical wind profile will support large, curved hodographs ahead of the squall line. 0-500 m SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH reaching 400 m2/s2 in spots. However, questions remain regarding how much SRH can be effectively ingested into thunderstorm updrafts given scant buoyancy profiles. Still, effective downward momentum transport of the strong synoptic flow aloft may support severe gusts within the squall line. Furthermore, if strong enough low-level WAA can appreciably destabilize the nocturnal boundary-layer, then isolated QLCS tornadoes may also occur. Any QLCS tornadoes that can develop will most likely occur with any LEWPS or mesovortices within portions of the squall line preceding the surface low track, where low-level winds will be most backed and low-level shear will be strongest. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday) into tomorrow night as a second mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. By tomorrow night into early Monday morning, surface low development is expected across western TX as strong upper support and an 80 kt mid-level speed max overspread the southern Plains. Low-level warm-air advection accompanying the developing surface low will support modest boundary-layer destabilization across central TX into southern OK, where adequate lift and shear will support some potential for severe thunderstorms. ...Southern Plains - Sunday Night into early Monday Morning... By around 06Z Monday morning, a surface low should begin to materialize just south of the TX Panhandle with the ejection of the aforementioned mid-level trough. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, modest surface-850 mb theta-e advection will support a corridor of 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE across central TX into extreme southern OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Given strong forcing for ascent and south-southwesterly 500 mb flow oriented roughly parallel with an approaching cold front, a squall line is expected to develop and advance northeast in tandem with the surface low. Modest veering but rapid strengthening with height of the vertical wind profile will support large, curved hodographs ahead of the squall line. 0-500 m SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH reaching 400 m2/s2 in spots. However, questions remain regarding how much SRH can be effectively ingested into thunderstorm updrafts given scant buoyancy profiles. Still, effective downward momentum transport of the strong synoptic flow aloft may support severe gusts within the squall line. Furthermore, if strong enough low-level WAA can appreciably destabilize the nocturnal boundary-layer, then isolated QLCS tornadoes may also occur. Any QLCS tornadoes that can develop will most likely occur with any LEWPS or mesovortices within portions of the squall line preceding the surface low track, where low-level winds will be most backed and low-level shear will be strongest. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday) into tomorrow night as a second mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. By tomorrow night into early Monday morning, surface low development is expected across western TX as strong upper support and an 80 kt mid-level speed max overspread the southern Plains. Low-level warm-air advection accompanying the developing surface low will support modest boundary-layer destabilization across central TX into southern OK, where adequate lift and shear will support some potential for severe thunderstorms. ...Southern Plains - Sunday Night into early Monday Morning... By around 06Z Monday morning, a surface low should begin to materialize just south of the TX Panhandle with the ejection of the aforementioned mid-level trough. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, modest surface-850 mb theta-e advection will support a corridor of 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE across central TX into extreme southern OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Given strong forcing for ascent and south-southwesterly 500 mb flow oriented roughly parallel with an approaching cold front, a squall line is expected to develop and advance northeast in tandem with the surface low. Modest veering but rapid strengthening with height of the vertical wind profile will support large, curved hodographs ahead of the squall line. 0-500 m SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH reaching 400 m2/s2 in spots. However, questions remain regarding how much SRH can be effectively ingested into thunderstorm updrafts given scant buoyancy profiles. Still, effective downward momentum transport of the strong synoptic flow aloft may support severe gusts within the squall line. Furthermore, if strong enough low-level WAA can appreciably destabilize the nocturnal boundary-layer, then isolated QLCS tornadoes may also occur. Any QLCS tornadoes that can develop will most likely occur with any LEWPS or mesovortices within portions of the squall line preceding the surface low track, where low-level winds will be most backed and low-level shear will be strongest. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday) into tomorrow night as a second mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. By tomorrow night into early Monday morning, surface low development is expected across western TX as strong upper support and an 80 kt mid-level speed max overspread the southern Plains. Low-level warm-air advection accompanying the developing surface low will support modest boundary-layer destabilization across central TX into southern OK, where adequate lift and shear will support some potential for severe thunderstorms. ...Southern Plains - Sunday Night into early Monday Morning... By around 06Z Monday morning, a surface low should begin to materialize just south of the TX Panhandle with the ejection of the aforementioned mid-level trough. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, modest surface-850 mb theta-e advection will support a corridor of 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE across central TX into extreme southern OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Given strong forcing for ascent and south-southwesterly 500 mb flow oriented roughly parallel with an approaching cold front, a squall line is expected to develop and advance northeast in tandem with the surface low. Modest veering but rapid strengthening with height of the vertical wind profile will support large, curved hodographs ahead of the squall line. 0-500 m SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH reaching 400 m2/s2 in spots. However, questions remain regarding how much SRH can be effectively ingested into thunderstorm updrafts given scant buoyancy profiles. Still, effective downward momentum transport of the strong synoptic flow aloft may support severe gusts within the squall line. Furthermore, if strong enough low-level WAA can appreciably destabilize the nocturnal boundary-layer, then isolated QLCS tornadoes may also occur. Any QLCS tornadoes that can develop will most likely occur with any LEWPS or mesovortices within portions of the squall line preceding the surface low track, where low-level winds will be most backed and low-level shear will be strongest. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday) into tomorrow night as a second mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. By tomorrow night into early Monday morning, surface low development is expected across western TX as strong upper support and an 80 kt mid-level speed max overspread the southern Plains. Low-level warm-air advection accompanying the developing surface low will support modest boundary-layer destabilization across central TX into southern OK, where adequate lift and shear will support some potential for severe thunderstorms. ...Southern Plains - Sunday Night into early Monday Morning... By around 06Z Monday morning, a surface low should begin to materialize just south of the TX Panhandle with the ejection of the aforementioned mid-level trough. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, modest surface-850 mb theta-e advection will support a corridor of 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE across central TX into extreme southern OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Given strong forcing for ascent and south-southwesterly 500 mb flow oriented roughly parallel with an approaching cold front, a squall line is expected to develop and advance northeast in tandem with the surface low. Modest veering but rapid strengthening with height of the vertical wind profile will support large, curved hodographs ahead of the squall line. 0-500 m SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH reaching 400 m2/s2 in spots. However, questions remain regarding how much SRH can be effectively ingested into thunderstorm updrafts given scant buoyancy profiles. Still, effective downward momentum transport of the strong synoptic flow aloft may support severe gusts within the squall line. Furthermore, if strong enough low-level WAA can appreciably destabilize the nocturnal boundary-layer, then isolated QLCS tornadoes may also occur. Any QLCS tornadoes that can develop will most likely occur with any LEWPS or mesovortices within portions of the squall line preceding the surface low track, where low-level winds will be most backed and low-level shear will be strongest. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more