Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong trough will progress into the Mississippi Valley. Flow across the West will become broadly cyclonic with the strongest flow remaining roughly parallel to the California coast. Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal as dry and windy conditions will remain removed from the driest fuels. With the strong flow along the California coast and low-level ridging extending north of the Transverse Ranges, some stronger downslope winds are possible. RH reductions in the immediate lee of the terrain could near 20% briefly. Locally elevated conditions may occur Monday afternoon along the Santa Barbara Coast. Offshore flow in other portions of southern California will increase towards Tuesday morning. RH reductions do not appear sufficient for elevated conditions. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong trough will progress into the Mississippi Valley. Flow across the West will become broadly cyclonic with the strongest flow remaining roughly parallel to the California coast. Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal as dry and windy conditions will remain removed from the driest fuels. With the strong flow along the California coast and low-level ridging extending north of the Transverse Ranges, some stronger downslope winds are possible. RH reductions in the immediate lee of the terrain could near 20% briefly. Locally elevated conditions may occur Monday afternoon along the Santa Barbara Coast. Offshore flow in other portions of southern California will increase towards Tuesday morning. RH reductions do not appear sufficient for elevated conditions. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western and central Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Western/Central TX into Southwest OK and vicinity... A potent upper trough over northwest Mexico will become negatively tilted as it ejects east/northeast into the southern High Plains today and tonight. As this occurs, an 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max will overspread western TX late in the period, with a broader area of 50-60 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow across much of the southern Plains. Strong height falls are forecast after 06z across western/central TX into OK. In response, a deepening surface low is expected to develop over the Permian Basin/TX South Plains by late evening into the early overnight hours. The low will shift northeast into southwest OK by 12z Monday. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport low/mid 60s F dewpoints north and west across central/western TX and much of OK. By late evening, strong forcing for ascent will begin to overspread eastern NM into western TX and areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in the vicinity of the deepening surface low, as well as northeast along the warm front extending across western north TX into OK. As the upper trough ejects, a 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the region in the 03-06z time frame. A QLCS is expected to develop ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, bringing a risk for severe storms overnight into early Monday. While the low-level warm advection regime will transport 60s F dewpoints across the region, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, robust forcing and strong deep-layer flow will support a risk for severe wind gusts. Furthermore, modest directional shear coupled with rapidly increasing wind speeds with height will result in enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, as the low-level jet increases, 0-1 km SRH will increase to around 200-400 m2/s2. This should support some potential for a few tornadoes within line-embedded mesovortex formations, especially in the 7-12z time frame from north-central/western north TX into southwest OK. At least some risk will likely extend northward into central OK where a warm front will be oriented east/northeast near the I-40/I-44 corridor near the end of the forecast period. Isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may occur across this area near daybreak, though confidence is lower compared to points further south. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western and central Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Western/Central TX into Southwest OK and vicinity... A potent upper trough over northwest Mexico will become negatively tilted as it ejects east/northeast into the southern High Plains today and tonight. As this occurs, an 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max will overspread western TX late in the period, with a broader area of 50-60 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow across much of the southern Plains. Strong height falls are forecast after 06z across western/central TX into OK. In response, a deepening surface low is expected to develop over the Permian Basin/TX South Plains by late evening into the early overnight hours. The low will shift northeast into southwest OK by 12z Monday. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport low/mid 60s F dewpoints north and west across central/western TX and much of OK. By late evening, strong forcing for ascent will begin to overspread eastern NM into western TX and areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in the vicinity of the deepening surface low, as well as northeast along the warm front extending across western north TX into OK. As the upper trough ejects, a 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the region in the 03-06z time frame. A QLCS is expected to develop ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, bringing a risk for severe storms overnight into early Monday. While the low-level warm advection regime will transport 60s F dewpoints across the region, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, robust forcing and strong deep-layer flow will support a risk for severe wind gusts. Furthermore, modest directional shear coupled with rapidly increasing wind speeds with height will result in enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, as the low-level jet increases, 0-1 km SRH will increase to around 200-400 m2/s2. This should support some potential for a few tornadoes within line-embedded mesovortex formations, especially in the 7-12z time frame from north-central/western north TX into southwest OK. At least some risk will likely extend northward into central OK where a warm front will be oriented east/northeast near the I-40/I-44 corridor near the end of the forecast period. Isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may occur across this area near daybreak, though confidence is lower compared to points further south. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western and central Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Western/Central TX into Southwest OK and vicinity... A potent upper trough over northwest Mexico will become negatively tilted as it ejects east/northeast into the southern High Plains today and tonight. As this occurs, an 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max will overspread western TX late in the period, with a broader area of 50-60 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow across much of the southern Plains. Strong height falls are forecast after 06z across western/central TX into OK. In response, a deepening surface low is expected to develop over the Permian Basin/TX South Plains by late evening into the early overnight hours. The low will shift northeast into southwest OK by 12z Monday. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport low/mid 60s F dewpoints north and west across central/western TX and much of OK. By late evening, strong forcing for ascent will begin to overspread eastern NM into western TX and areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in the vicinity of the deepening surface low, as well as northeast along the warm front extending across western north TX into OK. As the upper trough ejects, a 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the region in the 03-06z time frame. A QLCS is expected to develop ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, bringing a risk for severe storms overnight into early Monday. While the low-level warm advection regime will transport 60s F dewpoints across the region, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, robust forcing and strong deep-layer flow will support a risk for severe wind gusts. Furthermore, modest directional shear coupled with rapidly increasing wind speeds with height will result in enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, as the low-level jet increases, 0-1 km SRH will increase to around 200-400 m2/s2. This should support some potential for a few tornadoes within line-embedded mesovortex formations, especially in the 7-12z time frame from north-central/western north TX into southwest OK. At least some risk will likely extend northward into central OK where a warm front will be oriented east/northeast near the I-40/I-44 corridor near the end of the forecast period. Isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may occur across this area near daybreak, though confidence is lower compared to points further south. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western and central Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Western/Central TX into Southwest OK and vicinity... A potent upper trough over northwest Mexico will become negatively tilted as it ejects east/northeast into the southern High Plains today and tonight. As this occurs, an 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max will overspread western TX late in the period, with a broader area of 50-60 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow across much of the southern Plains. Strong height falls are forecast after 06z across western/central TX into OK. In response, a deepening surface low is expected to develop over the Permian Basin/TX South Plains by late evening into the early overnight hours. The low will shift northeast into southwest OK by 12z Monday. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport low/mid 60s F dewpoints north and west across central/western TX and much of OK. By late evening, strong forcing for ascent will begin to overspread eastern NM into western TX and areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in the vicinity of the deepening surface low, as well as northeast along the warm front extending across western north TX into OK. As the upper trough ejects, a 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the region in the 03-06z time frame. A QLCS is expected to develop ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, bringing a risk for severe storms overnight into early Monday. While the low-level warm advection regime will transport 60s F dewpoints across the region, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, robust forcing and strong deep-layer flow will support a risk for severe wind gusts. Furthermore, modest directional shear coupled with rapidly increasing wind speeds with height will result in enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, as the low-level jet increases, 0-1 km SRH will increase to around 200-400 m2/s2. This should support some potential for a few tornadoes within line-embedded mesovortex formations, especially in the 7-12z time frame from north-central/western north TX into southwest OK. At least some risk will likely extend northward into central OK where a warm front will be oriented east/northeast near the I-40/I-44 corridor near the end of the forecast period. Isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may occur across this area near daybreak, though confidence is lower compared to points further south. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western and central Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Western/Central TX into Southwest OK and vicinity... A potent upper trough over northwest Mexico will become negatively tilted as it ejects east/northeast into the southern High Plains today and tonight. As this occurs, an 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max will overspread western TX late in the period, with a broader area of 50-60 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow across much of the southern Plains. Strong height falls are forecast after 06z across western/central TX into OK. In response, a deepening surface low is expected to develop over the Permian Basin/TX South Plains by late evening into the early overnight hours. The low will shift northeast into southwest OK by 12z Monday. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport low/mid 60s F dewpoints north and west across central/western TX and much of OK. By late evening, strong forcing for ascent will begin to overspread eastern NM into western TX and areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in the vicinity of the deepening surface low, as well as northeast along the warm front extending across western north TX into OK. As the upper trough ejects, a 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the region in the 03-06z time frame. A QLCS is expected to develop ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, bringing a risk for severe storms overnight into early Monday. While the low-level warm advection regime will transport 60s F dewpoints across the region, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, robust forcing and strong deep-layer flow will support a risk for severe wind gusts. Furthermore, modest directional shear coupled with rapidly increasing wind speeds with height will result in enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, as the low-level jet increases, 0-1 km SRH will increase to around 200-400 m2/s2. This should support some potential for a few tornadoes within line-embedded mesovortex formations, especially in the 7-12z time frame from north-central/western north TX into southwest OK. At least some risk will likely extend northward into central OK where a warm front will be oriented east/northeast near the I-40/I-44 corridor near the end of the forecast period. Isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may occur across this area near daybreak, though confidence is lower compared to points further south. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western and central Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Western/Central TX into Southwest OK and vicinity... A potent upper trough over northwest Mexico will become negatively tilted as it ejects east/northeast into the southern High Plains today and tonight. As this occurs, an 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max will overspread western TX late in the period, with a broader area of 50-60 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow across much of the southern Plains. Strong height falls are forecast after 06z across western/central TX into OK. In response, a deepening surface low is expected to develop over the Permian Basin/TX South Plains by late evening into the early overnight hours. The low will shift northeast into southwest OK by 12z Monday. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport low/mid 60s F dewpoints north and west across central/western TX and much of OK. By late evening, strong forcing for ascent will begin to overspread eastern NM into western TX and areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in the vicinity of the deepening surface low, as well as northeast along the warm front extending across western north TX into OK. As the upper trough ejects, a 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the region in the 03-06z time frame. A QLCS is expected to develop ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, bringing a risk for severe storms overnight into early Monday. While the low-level warm advection regime will transport 60s F dewpoints across the region, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, robust forcing and strong deep-layer flow will support a risk for severe wind gusts. Furthermore, modest directional shear coupled with rapidly increasing wind speeds with height will result in enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, as the low-level jet increases, 0-1 km SRH will increase to around 200-400 m2/s2. This should support some potential for a few tornadoes within line-embedded mesovortex formations, especially in the 7-12z time frame from north-central/western north TX into southwest OK. At least some risk will likely extend northward into central OK where a warm front will be oriented east/northeast near the I-40/I-44 corridor near the end of the forecast period. Isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may occur across this area near daybreak, though confidence is lower compared to points further south. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western and central Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Western/Central TX into Southwest OK and vicinity... A potent upper trough over northwest Mexico will become negatively tilted as it ejects east/northeast into the southern High Plains today and tonight. As this occurs, an 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max will overspread western TX late in the period, with a broader area of 50-60 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow across much of the southern Plains. Strong height falls are forecast after 06z across western/central TX into OK. In response, a deepening surface low is expected to develop over the Permian Basin/TX South Plains by late evening into the early overnight hours. The low will shift northeast into southwest OK by 12z Monday. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport low/mid 60s F dewpoints north and west across central/western TX and much of OK. By late evening, strong forcing for ascent will begin to overspread eastern NM into western TX and areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in the vicinity of the deepening surface low, as well as northeast along the warm front extending across western north TX into OK. As the upper trough ejects, a 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the region in the 03-06z time frame. A QLCS is expected to develop ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, bringing a risk for severe storms overnight into early Monday. While the low-level warm advection regime will transport 60s F dewpoints across the region, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, robust forcing and strong deep-layer flow will support a risk for severe wind gusts. Furthermore, modest directional shear coupled with rapidly increasing wind speeds with height will result in enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, as the low-level jet increases, 0-1 km SRH will increase to around 200-400 m2/s2. This should support some potential for a few tornadoes within line-embedded mesovortex formations, especially in the 7-12z time frame from north-central/western north TX into southwest OK. At least some risk will likely extend northward into central OK where a warm front will be oriented east/northeast near the I-40/I-44 corridor near the end of the forecast period. Isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may occur across this area near daybreak, though confidence is lower compared to points further south. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening into the overnight hours from northeast Iowa into Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This activity will be elevated, driven by cooling aloft ahead of the eastward advancing upper trough, and low/midlevel warm advection. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening into the overnight hours from northeast Iowa into Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This activity will be elevated, driven by cooling aloft ahead of the eastward advancing upper trough, and low/midlevel warm advection. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening into the overnight hours from northeast Iowa into Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This activity will be elevated, driven by cooling aloft ahead of the eastward advancing upper trough, and low/midlevel warm advection. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening into the overnight hours from northeast Iowa into Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This activity will be elevated, driven by cooling aloft ahead of the eastward advancing upper trough, and low/midlevel warm advection. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/17/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 16 23:50:02 UTC 2024.