SPC Nov 16, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday) into tomorrow night as a second mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. By tomorrow night into early Monday morning, surface low development is expected across western TX as strong upper support and an 80 kt mid-level speed max overspread the southern Plains. Low-level warm-air advection accompanying the developing surface low will support modest boundary-layer destabilization across central TX into southern OK, where adequate lift and shear will support some potential for severe thunderstorms. ...Southern Plains - Sunday Night into early Monday Morning... By around 06Z Monday morning, a surface low should begin to materialize just south of the TX Panhandle with the ejection of the aforementioned mid-level trough. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, modest surface-850 mb theta-e advection will support a corridor of 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE across central TX into extreme southern OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Given strong forcing for ascent and south-southwesterly 500 mb flow oriented roughly parallel with an approaching cold front, a squall line is expected to develop and advance northeast in tandem with the surface low. Modest veering but rapid strengthening with height of the vertical wind profile will support large, curved hodographs ahead of the squall line. 0-500 m SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH reaching 400 m2/s2 in spots. However, questions remain regarding how much SRH can be effectively ingested into thunderstorm updrafts given scant buoyancy profiles. Still, effective downward momentum transport of the strong synoptic flow aloft may support severe gusts within the squall line. Furthermore, if strong enough low-level WAA can appreciably destabilize the nocturnal boundary-layer, then isolated QLCS tornadoes may also occur. Any QLCS tornadoes that can develop will most likely occur with any LEWPS or mesovortices within portions of the squall line preceding the surface low track, where low-level winds will be most backed and low-level shear will be strongest. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 16, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday) into tomorrow night as a second mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. By tomorrow night into early Monday morning, surface low development is expected across western TX as strong upper support and an 80 kt mid-level speed max overspread the southern Plains. Low-level warm-air advection accompanying the developing surface low will support modest boundary-layer destabilization across central TX into southern OK, where adequate lift and shear will support some potential for severe thunderstorms. ...Southern Plains - Sunday Night into early Monday Morning... By around 06Z Monday morning, a surface low should begin to materialize just south of the TX Panhandle with the ejection of the aforementioned mid-level trough. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, modest surface-850 mb theta-e advection will support a corridor of 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE across central TX into extreme southern OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Given strong forcing for ascent and south-southwesterly 500 mb flow oriented roughly parallel with an approaching cold front, a squall line is expected to develop and advance northeast in tandem with the surface low. Modest veering but rapid strengthening with height of the vertical wind profile will support large, curved hodographs ahead of the squall line. 0-500 m SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH reaching 400 m2/s2 in spots. However, questions remain regarding how much SRH can be effectively ingested into thunderstorm updrafts given scant buoyancy profiles. Still, effective downward momentum transport of the strong synoptic flow aloft may support severe gusts within the squall line. Furthermore, if strong enough low-level WAA can appreciably destabilize the nocturnal boundary-layer, then isolated QLCS tornadoes may also occur. Any QLCS tornadoes that can develop will most likely occur with any LEWPS or mesovortices within portions of the squall line preceding the surface low track, where low-level winds will be most backed and low-level shear will be strongest. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 16, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. ..Weinman.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 16, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. ..Weinman.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 16, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. ..Weinman.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 16, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. ..Weinman.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 16, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. ..Weinman.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 16, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. ..Weinman.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 16, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. ..Weinman.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 16, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. ..Weinman.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest observations show wind speeds already increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Similarly, RH values have fallen into the 20-35% range with some further reduction possible through early afternoon. Consideration was made for an upgrade to a Critical risk across parts of New England where conditions are currently the driest and 20+ mph gusts are being observed. However, wind speeds are expected to abate slightly through the afternoon away from terrain features (critical conditions appear most probable in the lee of Ponco and Catskill mountains). ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest observations show wind speeds already increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Similarly, RH values have fallen into the 20-35% range with some further reduction possible through early afternoon. Consideration was made for an upgrade to a Critical risk across parts of New England where conditions are currently the driest and 20+ mph gusts are being observed. However, wind speeds are expected to abate slightly through the afternoon away from terrain features (critical conditions appear most probable in the lee of Ponco and Catskill mountains). ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest observations show wind speeds already increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Similarly, RH values have fallen into the 20-35% range with some further reduction possible through early afternoon. Consideration was made for an upgrade to a Critical risk across parts of New England where conditions are currently the driest and 20+ mph gusts are being observed. However, wind speeds are expected to abate slightly through the afternoon away from terrain features (critical conditions appear most probable in the lee of Ponco and Catskill mountains). ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest observations show wind speeds already increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Similarly, RH values have fallen into the 20-35% range with some further reduction possible through early afternoon. Consideration was made for an upgrade to a Critical risk across parts of New England where conditions are currently the driest and 20+ mph gusts are being observed. However, wind speeds are expected to abate slightly through the afternoon away from terrain features (critical conditions appear most probable in the lee of Ponco and Catskill mountains). ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest observations show wind speeds already increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Similarly, RH values have fallen into the 20-35% range with some further reduction possible through early afternoon. Consideration was made for an upgrade to a Critical risk across parts of New England where conditions are currently the driest and 20+ mph gusts are being observed. However, wind speeds are expected to abate slightly through the afternoon away from terrain features (critical conditions appear most probable in the lee of Ponco and Catskill mountains). ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest observations show wind speeds already increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Similarly, RH values have fallen into the 20-35% range with some further reduction possible through early afternoon. Consideration was made for an upgrade to a Critical risk across parts of New England where conditions are currently the driest and 20+ mph gusts are being observed. However, wind speeds are expected to abate slightly through the afternoon away from terrain features (critical conditions appear most probable in the lee of Ponco and Catskill mountains). ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest observations show wind speeds already increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Similarly, RH values have fallen into the 20-35% range with some further reduction possible through early afternoon. Consideration was made for an upgrade to a Critical risk across parts of New England where conditions are currently the driest and 20+ mph gusts are being observed. However, wind speeds are expected to abate slightly through the afternoon away from terrain features (critical conditions appear most probable in the lee of Ponco and Catskill mountains). ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest observations show wind speeds already increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Similarly, RH values have fallen into the 20-35% range with some further reduction possible through early afternoon. Consideration was made for an upgrade to a Critical risk across parts of New England where conditions are currently the driest and 20+ mph gusts are being observed. However, wind speeds are expected to abate slightly through the afternoon away from terrain features (critical conditions appear most probable in the lee of Ponco and Catskill mountains). ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Nov 16, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough should move eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces through the period. A related surface low over the northern Plains this morning will develop generally northeastward into western Ontario by late tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will occur ahead of these features across parts of the Upper Midwest through much of the period. While instability is expected to remain rather muted, sufficient MUCAPE for elevated convection may exist by late evening into the overnight hours across this region. Overall lightning coverage will probably tend to be rather isolated given the weak instability forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 16, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough should move eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces through the period. A related surface low over the northern Plains this morning will develop generally northeastward into western Ontario by late tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will occur ahead of these features across parts of the Upper Midwest through much of the period. While instability is expected to remain rather muted, sufficient MUCAPE for elevated convection may exist by late evening into the overnight hours across this region. Overall lightning coverage will probably tend to be rather isolated given the weak instability forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/16/2024 Read more