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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The Elevated risk area has been expanded northeastward to encompass more of the New England region. This change was driven by morning surface observations, which are reporting relative humidity values between 20-25% - lower than anticipated by most model solutions. Given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours, fuels remain supportive across the region for at least a low-grade fire concern. Wind gusts up to 15 mph remain possible through early afternoon, but should still be less frequent and widespread compared to yesterday. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The Elevated risk area has been expanded northeastward to encompass more of the New England region. This change was driven by morning surface observations, which are reporting relative humidity values between 20-25% - lower than anticipated by most model solutions. Given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours, fuels remain supportive across the region for at least a low-grade fire concern. Wind gusts up to 15 mph remain possible through early afternoon, but should still be less frequent and widespread compared to yesterday. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The Elevated risk area has been expanded northeastward to encompass more of the New England region. This change was driven by morning surface observations, which are reporting relative humidity values between 20-25% - lower than anticipated by most model solutions. Given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours, fuels remain supportive across the region for at least a low-grade fire concern. Wind gusts up to 15 mph remain possible through early afternoon, but should still be less frequent and widespread compared to yesterday. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The Elevated risk area has been expanded northeastward to encompass more of the New England region. This change was driven by morning surface observations, which are reporting relative humidity values between 20-25% - lower than anticipated by most model solutions. Given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours, fuels remain supportive across the region for at least a low-grade fire concern. Wind gusts up to 15 mph remain possible through early afternoon, but should still be less frequent and widespread compared to yesterday. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The Elevated risk area has been expanded northeastward to encompass more of the New England region. This change was driven by morning surface observations, which are reporting relative humidity values between 20-25% - lower than anticipated by most model solutions. Given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours, fuels remain supportive across the region for at least a low-grade fire concern. Wind gusts up to 15 mph remain possible through early afternoon, but should still be less frequent and widespread compared to yesterday. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The Elevated risk area has been expanded northeastward to encompass more of the New England region. This change was driven by morning surface observations, which are reporting relative humidity values between 20-25% - lower than anticipated by most model solutions. Given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours, fuels remain supportive across the region for at least a low-grade fire concern. Wind gusts up to 15 mph remain possible through early afternoon, but should still be less frequent and widespread compared to yesterday. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Southern Plains... An upper trough/low over northwest Mexico and AZ this morning will move eastward today and eventually eject northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight through early Monday morning. A rather strong mid-level jet (70-100 kt at 500 mb) and focused large-scale ascent will overspread much of west TX into southwest OK as this upper trough acquires a negative tilt. This will aid in the development and subsequent deepening of a surface low across northwest TX into western OK by 06-12Z Monday morning. A 50-65 kt southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop late tonight across the southern Plains, which will aid in the continued northward transport of low-level moisture. Even though surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into at least the mid 60s, poor lapse rates aloft should tend to limit the degree of instability that can develop across the warm sector tonight. Even with weak forecast instability (MLCAPE potentially up to 500-1000 J/kg) amid moist adiabatic lapse rates at low/mid levels, current expectations are for a band of thunderstorms to develop along/near a surface cold front across west TX from this evening into the early overnight hours. This band of convection will be aided by strong ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough. As the line of thunderstorms encounters somewhat better instability across west-central/northwest TX, it will likely strengthen early Monday morning while posing a threat for scattered severe winds given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. Rapidly increasing winds and modest veering with height through low levels will support enlarged hodographs, with corresponding enhanced 0-1 km SRH (upwards of 200-400 m2/s2). This ample low-level shear should support a threat for a few tornadoes with circulations embedded within the east/northeastward-advancing QLCS. A warm front will extend east-northeastward from the surface low across west-central/central OK towards the end of the period early Monday morning (09-12Z). While both low-level and deep-layer shear will be quite strong, it remains unclear whether sufficient instability will be present to support surface-based convection and an appreciable severe threat across this area. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Marginal/Slight Risks with this update. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Southern Plains... An upper trough/low over northwest Mexico and AZ this morning will move eastward today and eventually eject northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight through early Monday morning. A rather strong mid-level jet (70-100 kt at 500 mb) and focused large-scale ascent will overspread much of west TX into southwest OK as this upper trough acquires a negative tilt. This will aid in the development and subsequent deepening of a surface low across northwest TX into western OK by 06-12Z Monday morning. A 50-65 kt southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop late tonight across the southern Plains, which will aid in the continued northward transport of low-level moisture. Even though surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into at least the mid 60s, poor lapse rates aloft should tend to limit the degree of instability that can develop across the warm sector tonight. Even with weak forecast instability (MLCAPE potentially up to 500-1000 J/kg) amid moist adiabatic lapse rates at low/mid levels, current expectations are for a band of thunderstorms to develop along/near a surface cold front across west TX from this evening into the early overnight hours. This band of convection will be aided by strong ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough. As the line of thunderstorms encounters somewhat better instability across west-central/northwest TX, it will likely strengthen early Monday morning while posing a threat for scattered severe winds given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. Rapidly increasing winds and modest veering with height through low levels will support enlarged hodographs, with corresponding enhanced 0-1 km SRH (upwards of 200-400 m2/s2). This ample low-level shear should support a threat for a few tornadoes with circulations embedded within the east/northeastward-advancing QLCS. A warm front will extend east-northeastward from the surface low across west-central/central OK towards the end of the period early Monday morning (09-12Z). While both low-level and deep-layer shear will be quite strong, it remains unclear whether sufficient instability will be present to support surface-based convection and an appreciable severe threat across this area. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Marginal/Slight Risks with this update. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Southern Plains... An upper trough/low over northwest Mexico and AZ this morning will move eastward today and eventually eject northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight through early Monday morning. A rather strong mid-level jet (70-100 kt at 500 mb) and focused large-scale ascent will overspread much of west TX into southwest OK as this upper trough acquires a negative tilt. This will aid in the development and subsequent deepening of a surface low across northwest TX into western OK by 06-12Z Monday morning. A 50-65 kt southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop late tonight across the southern Plains, which will aid in the continued northward transport of low-level moisture. Even though surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into at least the mid 60s, poor lapse rates aloft should tend to limit the degree of instability that can develop across the warm sector tonight. Even with weak forecast instability (MLCAPE potentially up to 500-1000 J/kg) amid moist adiabatic lapse rates at low/mid levels, current expectations are for a band of thunderstorms to develop along/near a surface cold front across west TX from this evening into the early overnight hours. This band of convection will be aided by strong ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough. As the line of thunderstorms encounters somewhat better instability across west-central/northwest TX, it will likely strengthen early Monday morning while posing a threat for scattered severe winds given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. Rapidly increasing winds and modest veering with height through low levels will support enlarged hodographs, with corresponding enhanced 0-1 km SRH (upwards of 200-400 m2/s2). This ample low-level shear should support a threat for a few tornadoes with circulations embedded within the east/northeastward-advancing QLCS. A warm front will extend east-northeastward from the surface low across west-central/central OK towards the end of the period early Monday morning (09-12Z). While both low-level and deep-layer shear will be quite strong, it remains unclear whether sufficient instability will be present to support surface-based convection and an appreciable severe threat across this area. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Marginal/Slight Risks with this update. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Southern Plains... An upper trough/low over northwest Mexico and AZ this morning will move eastward today and eventually eject northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight through early Monday morning. A rather strong mid-level jet (70-100 kt at 500 mb) and focused large-scale ascent will overspread much of west TX into southwest OK as this upper trough acquires a negative tilt. This will aid in the development and subsequent deepening of a surface low across northwest TX into western OK by 06-12Z Monday morning. A 50-65 kt southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop late tonight across the southern Plains, which will aid in the continued northward transport of low-level moisture. Even though surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into at least the mid 60s, poor lapse rates aloft should tend to limit the degree of instability that can develop across the warm sector tonight. Even with weak forecast instability (MLCAPE potentially up to 500-1000 J/kg) amid moist adiabatic lapse rates at low/mid levels, current expectations are for a band of thunderstorms to develop along/near a surface cold front across west TX from this evening into the early overnight hours. This band of convection will be aided by strong ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough. As the line of thunderstorms encounters somewhat better instability across west-central/northwest TX, it will likely strengthen early Monday morning while posing a threat for scattered severe winds given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. Rapidly increasing winds and modest veering with height through low levels will support enlarged hodographs, with corresponding enhanced 0-1 km SRH (upwards of 200-400 m2/s2). This ample low-level shear should support a threat for a few tornadoes with circulations embedded within the east/northeastward-advancing QLCS. A warm front will extend east-northeastward from the surface low across west-central/central OK towards the end of the period early Monday morning (09-12Z). While both low-level and deep-layer shear will be quite strong, it remains unclear whether sufficient instability will be present to support surface-based convection and an appreciable severe threat across this area. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Marginal/Slight Risks with this update. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Southern Plains... An upper trough/low over northwest Mexico and AZ this morning will move eastward today and eventually eject northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight through early Monday morning. A rather strong mid-level jet (70-100 kt at 500 mb) and focused large-scale ascent will overspread much of west TX into southwest OK as this upper trough acquires a negative tilt. This will aid in the development and subsequent deepening of a surface low across northwest TX into western OK by 06-12Z Monday morning. A 50-65 kt southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop late tonight across the southern Plains, which will aid in the continued northward transport of low-level moisture. Even though surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into at least the mid 60s, poor lapse rates aloft should tend to limit the degree of instability that can develop across the warm sector tonight. Even with weak forecast instability (MLCAPE potentially up to 500-1000 J/kg) amid moist adiabatic lapse rates at low/mid levels, current expectations are for a band of thunderstorms to develop along/near a surface cold front across west TX from this evening into the early overnight hours. This band of convection will be aided by strong ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough. As the line of thunderstorms encounters somewhat better instability across west-central/northwest TX, it will likely strengthen early Monday morning while posing a threat for scattered severe winds given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. Rapidly increasing winds and modest veering with height through low levels will support enlarged hodographs, with corresponding enhanced 0-1 km SRH (upwards of 200-400 m2/s2). This ample low-level shear should support a threat for a few tornadoes with circulations embedded within the east/northeastward-advancing QLCS. A warm front will extend east-northeastward from the surface low across west-central/central OK towards the end of the period early Monday morning (09-12Z). While both low-level and deep-layer shear will be quite strong, it remains unclear whether sufficient instability will be present to support surface-based convection and an appreciable severe threat across this area. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Marginal/Slight Risks with this update. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/17/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171121
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Sun Nov 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development, if any,
should be slow to occur over the next couple of days while the
system moves slowly eastward or east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward through the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across much of the Carolinas into Virginia. Thunderstorms could develop ahead of the front during the day from the Mid Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, but instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... A dry and relatively stable airmass is forecast to be in place across the continental U.S. from Thursday through the weekend. As a result, severe thunderstorms are not expected during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward through the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across much of the Carolinas into Virginia. Thunderstorms could develop ahead of the front during the day from the Mid Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, but instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... A dry and relatively stable airmass is forecast to be in place across the continental U.S. from Thursday through the weekend. As a result, severe thunderstorms are not expected during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward through the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across much of the Carolinas into Virginia. Thunderstorms could develop ahead of the front during the day from the Mid Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, but instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... A dry and relatively stable airmass is forecast to be in place across the continental U.S. from Thursday through the weekend. As a result, severe thunderstorms are not expected during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward through the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across much of the Carolinas into Virginia. Thunderstorms could develop ahead of the front during the day from the Mid Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, but instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... A dry and relatively stable airmass is forecast to be in place across the continental U.S. from Thursday through the weekend. As a result, severe thunderstorms are not expected during this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward through the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across much of the Carolinas into Virginia. Thunderstorms could develop ahead of the front during the day from the Mid Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, but instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... A dry and relatively stable airmass is forecast to be in place across the continental U.S. from Thursday through the weekend. As a result, severe thunderstorms are not expected during this period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across much of the Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front moves eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F will contribute to weak destabilization. A relatively large complex of thunderstorms is forecast to move across this moist airmass during the day. A few of the storms could produce isolated severe gusts, but any severe threat is expected to be marginal due to the limited instability. ..Broyles.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across much of the Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front moves eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F will contribute to weak destabilization. A relatively large complex of thunderstorms is forecast to move across this moist airmass during the day. A few of the storms could produce isolated severe gusts, but any severe threat is expected to be marginal due to the limited instability. ..Broyles.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across much of the Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front moves eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F will contribute to weak destabilization. A relatively large complex of thunderstorms is forecast to move across this moist airmass during the day. A few of the storms could produce isolated severe gusts, but any severe threat is expected to be marginal due to the limited instability. ..Broyles.. 11/17/2024 Read more