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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The primary change for this update was to remove portions of NJ from the Elevated risk area. Latest surface observations show RH values between 30-40%, but higher dewpoint values upstream suggest RH values should remain in this range - if not see some improvement as suggested by morning guidance - through the afternoon. Additionally, this region should remain within a low to mid-level deformation zone that will limit gust potential. Further northeast into New England, very dry conditions remain likely with gusts up to 20 mph likely by early afternoon as the boundary layer deepens. Forecast concerns across AZ/NM remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The primary change for this update was to remove portions of NJ from the Elevated risk area. Latest surface observations show RH values between 30-40%, but higher dewpoint values upstream suggest RH values should remain in this range - if not see some improvement as suggested by morning guidance - through the afternoon. Additionally, this region should remain within a low to mid-level deformation zone that will limit gust potential. Further northeast into New England, very dry conditions remain likely with gusts up to 20 mph likely by early afternoon as the boundary layer deepens. Forecast concerns across AZ/NM remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential should remain low today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Convection producing lightning is expected to remain offshore from the NC/SC Coast today, as an upper trough continues eastward over the western Atlantic. Across the western CONUS, an amplified upper trough/low is forecast to persist through the period while moving slowly eastward. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature and an occasional lightning flash may occur from parts of CA into the Great Basin, low-level moisture and instability should remain quite limited. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm potential appears less than 10 percent. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential should remain low today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Convection producing lightning is expected to remain offshore from the NC/SC Coast today, as an upper trough continues eastward over the western Atlantic. Across the western CONUS, an amplified upper trough/low is forecast to persist through the period while moving slowly eastward. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature and an occasional lightning flash may occur from parts of CA into the Great Basin, low-level moisture and instability should remain quite limited. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm potential appears less than 10 percent. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential should remain low today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Convection producing lightning is expected to remain offshore from the NC/SC Coast today, as an upper trough continues eastward over the western Atlantic. Across the western CONUS, an amplified upper trough/low is forecast to persist through the period while moving slowly eastward. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature and an occasional lightning flash may occur from parts of CA into the Great Basin, low-level moisture and instability should remain quite limited. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm potential appears less than 10 percent. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential should remain low today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Convection producing lightning is expected to remain offshore from the NC/SC Coast today, as an upper trough continues eastward over the western Atlantic. Across the western CONUS, an amplified upper trough/low is forecast to persist through the period while moving slowly eastward. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature and an occasional lightning flash may occur from parts of CA into the Great Basin, low-level moisture and instability should remain quite limited. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm potential appears less than 10 percent. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential should remain low today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Convection producing lightning is expected to remain offshore from the NC/SC Coast today, as an upper trough continues eastward over the western Atlantic. Across the western CONUS, an amplified upper trough/low is forecast to persist through the period while moving slowly eastward. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature and an occasional lightning flash may occur from parts of CA into the Great Basin, low-level moisture and instability should remain quite limited. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm potential appears less than 10 percent. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/15/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the southern Plains on Monday. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period over north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma. A few severe wind gusts will be possible in this area Monday morning. Thunderstorm development may continue ahead of the trough during the day from east Texas and the Sabine River Valley northward into eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, the Ozarks and lower to mid Missouri Valley. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible but instability is expected to remain minimal. On Tuesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A cold front is forecast to move eastward into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the day along and ahead of the front. Any severe threat ahead of the front is expected to be isolated due to limited instability. On Wednesday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms would be ahead of the front in the Carolinas, and across parts of Florida. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... The upper-level low is forecast to move eastward from the central Appalachians on Thursday to the western Atlantic on Friday. The airmass across the continental U.S. is expected to be relatively dry making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development across most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the southern Plains on Monday. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period over north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma. A few severe wind gusts will be possible in this area Monday morning. Thunderstorm development may continue ahead of the trough during the day from east Texas and the Sabine River Valley northward into eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, the Ozarks and lower to mid Missouri Valley. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible but instability is expected to remain minimal. On Tuesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A cold front is forecast to move eastward into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the day along and ahead of the front. Any severe threat ahead of the front is expected to be isolated due to limited instability. On Wednesday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms would be ahead of the front in the Carolinas, and across parts of Florida. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... The upper-level low is forecast to move eastward from the central Appalachians on Thursday to the western Atlantic on Friday. The airmass across the continental U.S. is expected to be relatively dry making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development across most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the southern Plains on Monday. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period over north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma. A few severe wind gusts will be possible in this area Monday morning. Thunderstorm development may continue ahead of the trough during the day from east Texas and the Sabine River Valley northward into eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, the Ozarks and lower to mid Missouri Valley. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible but instability is expected to remain minimal. On Tuesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A cold front is forecast to move eastward into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the day along and ahead of the front. Any severe threat ahead of the front is expected to be isolated due to limited instability. On Wednesday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms would be ahead of the front in the Carolinas, and across parts of Florida. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... The upper-level low is forecast to move eastward from the central Appalachians on Thursday to the western Atlantic on Friday. The airmass across the continental U.S. is expected to be relatively dry making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development across most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the southern Plains on Monday. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period over north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma. A few severe wind gusts will be possible in this area Monday morning. Thunderstorm development may continue ahead of the trough during the day from east Texas and the Sabine River Valley northward into eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, the Ozarks and lower to mid Missouri Valley. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible but instability is expected to remain minimal. On Tuesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A cold front is forecast to move eastward into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the day along and ahead of the front. Any severe threat ahead of the front is expected to be isolated due to limited instability. On Wednesday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms would be ahead of the front in the Carolinas, and across parts of Florida. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... The upper-level low is forecast to move eastward from the central Appalachians on Thursday to the western Atlantic on Friday. The airmass across the continental U.S. is expected to be relatively dry making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development across most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the southern Plains on Monday. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period over north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma. A few severe wind gusts will be possible in this area Monday morning. Thunderstorm development may continue ahead of the trough during the day from east Texas and the Sabine River Valley northward into eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, the Ozarks and lower to mid Missouri Valley. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible but instability is expected to remain minimal. On Tuesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A cold front is forecast to move eastward into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the day along and ahead of the front. Any severe threat ahead of the front is expected to be isolated due to limited instability. On Wednesday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms would be ahead of the front in the Carolinas, and across parts of Florida. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... The upper-level low is forecast to move eastward from the central Appalachians on Thursday to the western Atlantic on Friday. The airmass across the continental U.S. is expected to be relatively dry making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development across most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the southern Plains on Monday. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period over north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma. A few severe wind gusts will be possible in this area Monday morning. Thunderstorm development may continue ahead of the trough during the day from east Texas and the Sabine River Valley northward into eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, the Ozarks and lower to mid Missouri Valley. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible but instability is expected to remain minimal. On Tuesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A cold front is forecast to move eastward into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the day along and ahead of the front. Any severe threat ahead of the front is expected to be isolated due to limited instability. On Wednesday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms would be ahead of the front in the Carolinas, and across parts of Florida. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... The upper-level low is forecast to move eastward from the central Appalachians on Thursday to the western Atlantic on Friday. The airmass across the continental U.S. is expected to be relatively dry making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development across most of the continental U.S. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into the overnight, posing a risk for severe gusts, hail and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move eastward into northern Mexico on Sunday, as a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains. By early evening, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F across much of west and northwest Texas, and in the 60s F across west-central and north-central Texas. Weak destabilization across this moist airmass, and strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough will likely result in MCS development Sunday evening. A large cluster of thunderstorms, with some potentially severe, is expected to develop in west Texas Sunday evening, and spread east-northeastward across the western part of the southern Plains overnight. The latest ECMWF is moving the mid-level jet into the southern High Plains faster than other solutions. In response, a cluster of storms is expected to develop earlier in the event, beginning early Sunday evening in west Texas. These storms should be associated with the initial severe threat. Due to a strong forcing regime, convective coverage is forecast to rapidly expand Sunday evening, as an MCS develops and moves across the southern High Plains. By 06Z Sunday night, ECMWF forecast soundings in west-central Texas suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 60 to 70 knot range, as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. This should be favorable for an organized line segment in west-central Texas late Sunday evening into the early overnight. Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range by midnight, which would also be favorable for a tornado threat. The current thinking is that the tornado threat will be mostly associated with a Quasi-linear Convective System. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells embedded in the QLCS. The severe threat is expected to spread into parts of central and north-central Texas during the overnight period, as the upper-level low moves into the southern High Plains. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into the overnight, posing a risk for severe gusts, hail and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move eastward into northern Mexico on Sunday, as a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains. By early evening, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F across much of west and northwest Texas, and in the 60s F across west-central and north-central Texas. Weak destabilization across this moist airmass, and strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough will likely result in MCS development Sunday evening. A large cluster of thunderstorms, with some potentially severe, is expected to develop in west Texas Sunday evening, and spread east-northeastward across the western part of the southern Plains overnight. The latest ECMWF is moving the mid-level jet into the southern High Plains faster than other solutions. In response, a cluster of storms is expected to develop earlier in the event, beginning early Sunday evening in west Texas. These storms should be associated with the initial severe threat. Due to a strong forcing regime, convective coverage is forecast to rapidly expand Sunday evening, as an MCS develops and moves across the southern High Plains. By 06Z Sunday night, ECMWF forecast soundings in west-central Texas suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 60 to 70 knot range, as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. This should be favorable for an organized line segment in west-central Texas late Sunday evening into the early overnight. Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range by midnight, which would also be favorable for a tornado threat. The current thinking is that the tornado threat will be mostly associated with a Quasi-linear Convective System. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells embedded in the QLCS. The severe threat is expected to spread into parts of central and north-central Texas during the overnight period, as the upper-level low moves into the southern High Plains. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into the overnight, posing a risk for severe gusts, hail and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move eastward into northern Mexico on Sunday, as a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains. By early evening, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F across much of west and northwest Texas, and in the 60s F across west-central and north-central Texas. Weak destabilization across this moist airmass, and strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough will likely result in MCS development Sunday evening. A large cluster of thunderstorms, with some potentially severe, is expected to develop in west Texas Sunday evening, and spread east-northeastward across the western part of the southern Plains overnight. The latest ECMWF is moving the mid-level jet into the southern High Plains faster than other solutions. In response, a cluster of storms is expected to develop earlier in the event, beginning early Sunday evening in west Texas. These storms should be associated with the initial severe threat. Due to a strong forcing regime, convective coverage is forecast to rapidly expand Sunday evening, as an MCS develops and moves across the southern High Plains. By 06Z Sunday night, ECMWF forecast soundings in west-central Texas suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 60 to 70 knot range, as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. This should be favorable for an organized line segment in west-central Texas late Sunday evening into the early overnight. Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range by midnight, which would also be favorable for a tornado threat. The current thinking is that the tornado threat will be mostly associated with a Quasi-linear Convective System. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells embedded in the QLCS. The severe threat is expected to spread into parts of central and north-central Texas during the overnight period, as the upper-level low moves into the southern High Plains. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into the overnight, posing a risk for severe gusts, hail and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move eastward into northern Mexico on Sunday, as a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains. By early evening, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F across much of west and northwest Texas, and in the 60s F across west-central and north-central Texas. Weak destabilization across this moist airmass, and strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough will likely result in MCS development Sunday evening. A large cluster of thunderstorms, with some potentially severe, is expected to develop in west Texas Sunday evening, and spread east-northeastward across the western part of the southern Plains overnight. The latest ECMWF is moving the mid-level jet into the southern High Plains faster than other solutions. In response, a cluster of storms is expected to develop earlier in the event, beginning early Sunday evening in west Texas. These storms should be associated with the initial severe threat. Due to a strong forcing regime, convective coverage is forecast to rapidly expand Sunday evening, as an MCS develops and moves across the southern High Plains. By 06Z Sunday night, ECMWF forecast soundings in west-central Texas suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 60 to 70 knot range, as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. This should be favorable for an organized line segment in west-central Texas late Sunday evening into the early overnight. Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range by midnight, which would also be favorable for a tornado threat. The current thinking is that the tornado threat will be mostly associated with a Quasi-linear Convective System. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells embedded in the QLCS. The severe threat is expected to spread into parts of central and north-central Texas during the overnight period, as the upper-level low moves into the southern High Plains. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into the overnight, posing a risk for severe gusts, hail and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move eastward into northern Mexico on Sunday, as a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains. By early evening, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F across much of west and northwest Texas, and in the 60s F across west-central and north-central Texas. Weak destabilization across this moist airmass, and strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough will likely result in MCS development Sunday evening. A large cluster of thunderstorms, with some potentially severe, is expected to develop in west Texas Sunday evening, and spread east-northeastward across the western part of the southern Plains overnight. The latest ECMWF is moving the mid-level jet into the southern High Plains faster than other solutions. In response, a cluster of storms is expected to develop earlier in the event, beginning early Sunday evening in west Texas. These storms should be associated with the initial severe threat. Due to a strong forcing regime, convective coverage is forecast to rapidly expand Sunday evening, as an MCS develops and moves across the southern High Plains. By 06Z Sunday night, ECMWF forecast soundings in west-central Texas suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 60 to 70 knot range, as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. This should be favorable for an organized line segment in west-central Texas late Sunday evening into the early overnight. Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range by midnight, which would also be favorable for a tornado threat. The current thinking is that the tornado threat will be mostly associated with a Quasi-linear Convective System. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells embedded in the QLCS. The severe threat is expected to spread into parts of central and north-central Texas during the overnight period, as the upper-level low moves into the southern High Plains. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into the overnight, posing a risk for severe gusts, hail and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move eastward into northern Mexico on Sunday, as a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains. By early evening, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F across much of west and northwest Texas, and in the 60s F across west-central and north-central Texas. Weak destabilization across this moist airmass, and strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough will likely result in MCS development Sunday evening. A large cluster of thunderstorms, with some potentially severe, is expected to develop in west Texas Sunday evening, and spread east-northeastward across the western part of the southern Plains overnight. The latest ECMWF is moving the mid-level jet into the southern High Plains faster than other solutions. In response, a cluster of storms is expected to develop earlier in the event, beginning early Sunday evening in west Texas. These storms should be associated with the initial severe threat. Due to a strong forcing regime, convective coverage is forecast to rapidly expand Sunday evening, as an MCS develops and moves across the southern High Plains. By 06Z Sunday night, ECMWF forecast soundings in west-central Texas suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 60 to 70 knot range, as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. This should be favorable for an organized line segment in west-central Texas late Sunday evening into the early overnight. Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range by midnight, which would also be favorable for a tornado threat. The current thinking is that the tornado threat will be mostly associated with a Quasi-linear Convective System. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells embedded in the QLCS. The severe threat is expected to spread into parts of central and north-central Texas during the overnight period, as the upper-level low moves into the southern High Plains. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move into the Dakotas on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place across the much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from the afternoon into the overnight within a broad a corridor of strong low-level flow from Kansas northeastward into the upper Great Lakes. Instability is expected to be minimal, and a severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more