Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low today. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS today. Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the start of the period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low today. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS today. Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the start of the period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low today. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS today. Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the start of the period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low today. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS today. Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the start of the period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this tonight. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max digging across the southern Appalachians will translate across the Carolinas tonight. This feature will induce cyclogenesis along a coastal boundary, and the deepening low should track northeast, just off the NC coast later this evening. Weak convection is currently noted along the wind shift from southeast SC into extreme southern NC. As the front sharpens, this activity may continue to deepen and lightning is expected to develop as updrafts penetrate colder temperatures. Earlier thoughts regarding a low risk for severe continue. Strongly sheared environment remains conducive for updraft organization, and there is some potential near-coastal convection could briefly attain severe levels before moving offshore. Even so, any severe threat will remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this tonight. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max digging across the southern Appalachians will translate across the Carolinas tonight. This feature will induce cyclogenesis along a coastal boundary, and the deepening low should track northeast, just off the NC coast later this evening. Weak convection is currently noted along the wind shift from southeast SC into extreme southern NC. As the front sharpens, this activity may continue to deepen and lightning is expected to develop as updrafts penetrate colder temperatures. Earlier thoughts regarding a low risk for severe continue. Strongly sheared environment remains conducive for updraft organization, and there is some potential near-coastal convection could briefly attain severe levels before moving offshore. Even so, any severe threat will remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 11/15/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 14 23:50:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 14 23:50:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The upper-level pattern is forecast to be active across the CONUS during the extended period. On Saturday, the pattern will amplify as a trough deepens over the West, and a ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. The trough and associated surface low pressure system will advance northward over the central CONUS bringing precipitation through Tuesday before slowly meandering eastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft over the West on Tuesday and Wednesday will promote surface high development over the Great Basin, favoring offshore flow for southern California. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - New England... Dry, offshore flow will continue into the weekend over much of New England, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Despite relatively cool surface temperatures (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s F), afternoon RH values are forecast to fall around or below critical thresholds (30%) across much of the area. While vertical mixing in the PBL may be limited, strong northwesterly flow aloft will promote strong gust potential, especially for areas that are able to mix more deeply than forecast. Given the dry fuels (ERC values above the 90th percentile) across the region, fire weather concerns will peak on Saturday afternoon and linger into Sunday afternoon. ...D6/Tue to D7/Wed - Southern California... Medium-range ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for an offshore wind event across southern California on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles show reasonably good agreement in a strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient (likely peaking Wednesday morning) should support critical downslope winds in terrain-favored areas of southern California. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by the ongoing large fire in Ventura County) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D6/Tue to D7/Wed period. ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The upper-level pattern is forecast to be active across the CONUS during the extended period. On Saturday, the pattern will amplify as a trough deepens over the West, and a ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. The trough and associated surface low pressure system will advance northward over the central CONUS bringing precipitation through Tuesday before slowly meandering eastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft over the West on Tuesday and Wednesday will promote surface high development over the Great Basin, favoring offshore flow for southern California. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - New England... Dry, offshore flow will continue into the weekend over much of New England, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Despite relatively cool surface temperatures (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s F), afternoon RH values are forecast to fall around or below critical thresholds (30%) across much of the area. While vertical mixing in the PBL may be limited, strong northwesterly flow aloft will promote strong gust potential, especially for areas that are able to mix more deeply than forecast. Given the dry fuels (ERC values above the 90th percentile) across the region, fire weather concerns will peak on Saturday afternoon and linger into Sunday afternoon. ...D6/Tue to D7/Wed - Southern California... Medium-range ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for an offshore wind event across southern California on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles show reasonably good agreement in a strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient (likely peaking Wednesday morning) should support critical downslope winds in terrain-favored areas of southern California. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by the ongoing large fire in Ventura County) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D6/Tue to D7/Wed period. ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The upper-level pattern is forecast to be active across the CONUS during the extended period. On Saturday, the pattern will amplify as a trough deepens over the West, and a ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. The trough and associated surface low pressure system will advance northward over the central CONUS bringing precipitation through Tuesday before slowly meandering eastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft over the West on Tuesday and Wednesday will promote surface high development over the Great Basin, favoring offshore flow for southern California. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - New England... Dry, offshore flow will continue into the weekend over much of New England, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Despite relatively cool surface temperatures (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s F), afternoon RH values are forecast to fall around or below critical thresholds (30%) across much of the area. While vertical mixing in the PBL may be limited, strong northwesterly flow aloft will promote strong gust potential, especially for areas that are able to mix more deeply than forecast. Given the dry fuels (ERC values above the 90th percentile) across the region, fire weather concerns will peak on Saturday afternoon and linger into Sunday afternoon. ...D6/Tue to D7/Wed - Southern California... Medium-range ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for an offshore wind event across southern California on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles show reasonably good agreement in a strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient (likely peaking Wednesday morning) should support critical downslope winds in terrain-favored areas of southern California. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by the ongoing large fire in Ventura County) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D6/Tue to D7/Wed period. ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The upper-level pattern is forecast to be active across the CONUS during the extended period. On Saturday, the pattern will amplify as a trough deepens over the West, and a ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. The trough and associated surface low pressure system will advance northward over the central CONUS bringing precipitation through Tuesday before slowly meandering eastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft over the West on Tuesday and Wednesday will promote surface high development over the Great Basin, favoring offshore flow for southern California. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - New England... Dry, offshore flow will continue into the weekend over much of New England, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Despite relatively cool surface temperatures (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s F), afternoon RH values are forecast to fall around or below critical thresholds (30%) across much of the area. While vertical mixing in the PBL may be limited, strong northwesterly flow aloft will promote strong gust potential, especially for areas that are able to mix more deeply than forecast. Given the dry fuels (ERC values above the 90th percentile) across the region, fire weather concerns will peak on Saturday afternoon and linger into Sunday afternoon. ...D6/Tue to D7/Wed - Southern California... Medium-range ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for an offshore wind event across southern California on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles show reasonably good agreement in a strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient (likely peaking Wednesday morning) should support critical downslope winds in terrain-favored areas of southern California. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by the ongoing large fire in Ventura County) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D6/Tue to D7/Wed period. ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The upper-level pattern is forecast to be active across the CONUS during the extended period. On Saturday, the pattern will amplify as a trough deepens over the West, and a ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. The trough and associated surface low pressure system will advance northward over the central CONUS bringing precipitation through Tuesday before slowly meandering eastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft over the West on Tuesday and Wednesday will promote surface high development over the Great Basin, favoring offshore flow for southern California. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - New England... Dry, offshore flow will continue into the weekend over much of New England, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Despite relatively cool surface temperatures (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s F), afternoon RH values are forecast to fall around or below critical thresholds (30%) across much of the area. While vertical mixing in the PBL may be limited, strong northwesterly flow aloft will promote strong gust potential, especially for areas that are able to mix more deeply than forecast. Given the dry fuels (ERC values above the 90th percentile) across the region, fire weather concerns will peak on Saturday afternoon and linger into Sunday afternoon. ...D6/Tue to D7/Wed - Southern California... Medium-range ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for an offshore wind event across southern California on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles show reasonably good agreement in a strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient (likely peaking Wednesday morning) should support critical downslope winds in terrain-favored areas of southern California. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by the ongoing large fire in Ventura County) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D6/Tue to D7/Wed period. ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. Read more