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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms developing across the northern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Basin this afternoon will pose an isolated severe risk, before spreading eastward toward the northern High Plains this evening. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving across the northern Rockies and adjacent Great Basin this afternoon. These storms are generally focused in a band of midlevel ascent preceding a compact midlevel low tracking eastward across central ID. This activity will continue spreading east-northeastward through the afternoon, with initial semi-discrete clusters/transient supercells posing a risk of sporadic, marginally severe hail and locally severe gusts. See MCDs 2044/2045 for details on the near-term severe risk. Later this afternoon, a more-focused corridor of severe-wind potential is possible from portions of northwest WY into southwest/south-central MT, especially with any upscale-grown clusters amid steep deep-layer lapse rates. A 15-percent wind-driven Slight Risk was considered here, though confidence in the development of an organized/consolidated cold pool remains too low for an upgrade. ..Weinman.. 09/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024/ ...Northern Great Basin/Rockies into the Adjacent High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows a smoke-encased mid to upper-level low/vorticity maximum over central ID. This upper feature will move to near southwest MT/eastern ID late tonight. The satellite data late this morning shows agitated cumulus developing immediately ahead of the vorticity max near the ID/MT border, and as large-scale ascent spreads east, additional thunderstorms (widely scattered to scattered coverage) should develop over the higher terrain through early afternoon in tandem with daytime heating. Forecast soundings across southwest MT into northwest WY show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with some elongation of the hodograph. A few of the stronger storms will probably acquire transient supercell characteristics and have an associated hail/wind threat. Some clustering may eventually evolve by early evening as storms move into south-central MT and adjacent parts of northern WY. Somewhat more limited low-level moisture should be present this afternoon farther south into WY and northern UT. Even so, diurnal heating will aid in a deeply mixed boundary layer by this afternoon, and steep mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain over this region. The net result will be high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts initially developing across northern UT into far eastern ID, and subsequently moving east-northeastward over WY through the evening. Read more

MD 2044 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST MT AND NORTHWEST WY
Mesoscale Discussion 2044 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Areas affected...southwest MT and northwest WY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031807Z - 032000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few weak supercells may develop by late afternoon across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated severe hail and strong to localized severe gusts will be possible. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually increased into midday, but should increase more prominently by 19-20Z as MLCIN further wanes and large-scale ascent persists downstream of a smoke-filled mid-level low near the Bitterroot Range. To its southeast, the Pocatello VWP has consistently sampled the belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies from 40-45 kts, with values likely in the 30s farther north across southwest MT. With a confined mid-level cold core gradually shifting east, the greater potential for 0.75-1.5 inch hail should be focused initially across southwest MT. With moderate surface temperature-dew point spreads near/west of the Absaroka Range, wind gusts should largely be sub-severe, but may locally reach 50-65 mph. Somewhat greater wind potential may occur farther east from the Lewiston-Billings-Cody corridor as convection spreads into a more deeply mixed environment later. ..Grams/Smith.. 09/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 46690982 46020913 45450886 44410902 43460977 43471074 43581127 43731127 43921111 44351102 44741107 45191132 45001245 44921341 45121406 45851377 46281393 46581408 46831407 47111339 47221233 47051100 46690982 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, an elongated frontal zone will extend from northern Ontario, across the Great Lakes, across the central Plains, and into the southern High Plains. Moisture will remain somewhat meager along this frontal zone with storm coverage likely focused near the higher terrain in New Mexico and the better forcing in the western Great Lakes. ...Western Great Lakes... Strong height falls/cooling temperatures aloft should be sufficient to allow for some scattered storm development along the cold front in the western Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, despite the strong forcing, instability will be somewhat limited and thus, severe storms are unlikely. ...Northeast New Mexico... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will move toward northeast New Mexico and provide ample forcing for storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will remain weak, but may be sufficient for a few stronger storms. If greater instability can develop, enough deep-layer shear will be present for some storm organization (~25 knots), but at this time, instability remains too weak for a Marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave troughs will become more consolidated and start to amplify across the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level jet intensifies along the frontal zone. ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at 500mb) combines with significant heating over the higher terrain. The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep the threat somewhat limited. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat. However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2024 Read more