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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and current dry/windy conditions. Elsewhere, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions in southwest Texas and along the Sierra Front. Locally elevated conditions are also possible in the Appalachians from Tennessee-North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia border as southeast winds strengthen with some downslope enhancement ahead of precipitation Wednesday night. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Gusty post-frontal off-shore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast from far eastern PA and southern NJ extending northeast through southern New England. A very dry air mass will remain in place with relative humidity reductions to around 30-35 percent likely. Given the drought conditions and receptive fuels in this region, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Locally Critical conditions may be possible, though the limited spatial extent of this threat precludes the need to include a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and current dry/windy conditions. Elsewhere, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions in southwest Texas and along the Sierra Front. Locally elevated conditions are also possible in the Appalachians from Tennessee-North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia border as southeast winds strengthen with some downslope enhancement ahead of precipitation Wednesday night. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Gusty post-frontal off-shore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast from far eastern PA and southern NJ extending northeast through southern New England. A very dry air mass will remain in place with relative humidity reductions to around 30-35 percent likely. Given the drought conditions and receptive fuels in this region, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Locally Critical conditions may be possible, though the limited spatial extent of this threat precludes the need to include a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and current dry/windy conditions. Elsewhere, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions in southwest Texas and along the Sierra Front. Locally elevated conditions are also possible in the Appalachians from Tennessee-North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia border as southeast winds strengthen with some downslope enhancement ahead of precipitation Wednesday night. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Gusty post-frontal off-shore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast from far eastern PA and southern NJ extending northeast through southern New England. A very dry air mass will remain in place with relative humidity reductions to around 30-35 percent likely. Given the drought conditions and receptive fuels in this region, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Locally Critical conditions may be possible, though the limited spatial extent of this threat precludes the need to include a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance and current dry/windy conditions. Elsewhere, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions in southwest Texas and along the Sierra Front. Locally elevated conditions are also possible in the Appalachians from Tennessee-North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia border as southeast winds strengthen with some downslope enhancement ahead of precipitation Wednesday night. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Gusty post-frontal off-shore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast from far eastern PA and southern NJ extending northeast through southern New England. A very dry air mass will remain in place with relative humidity reductions to around 30-35 percent likely. Given the drought conditions and receptive fuels in this region, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Locally Critical conditions may be possible, though the limited spatial extent of this threat precludes the need to include a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms with strong to locally severe gusts are also possible near the immediate coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Plains through the MS Valley on Wednesday, becoming more negatively tilted as it does. An occluded surface low associated with this system will begin the period over the mid MO Valley before moving eastward across IA and reaching the northern IL early Thursday morning. More consequently for the severe-weather potential, a secondary triple-point low is expected to progress eastward across the northern portion of the Southeast states, along the northern edge of an eastward-evolving warm sector. Cold front associated with this low will gradually move eastward across the Southeast states during the day. Farther west, an upper-level trough is forecast to progress farther inland across the western CONUS, as an embedded shortwave trough moves across northern CA into the interior Northwest/northern Great Basin. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast... General expectation is for a triple-point surface low to evolve over the Mid-South vicinity through the early afternoon as low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the central Gulf Coast region. Dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s are anticipated ahead of this low and associated cold front. The airmass is expected to destabilize amid this low-level moisture, but overall buoyancy will still be modest given the lack of steep lapse rates. The combination of destabilization and increasing ascent is forecast to result in thunderstorm development across the warm sector, but along and ahead of the eastward-progressing cold front. The stronger shear will likely be displaced north of the stronger buoyancy, but enough shear is expected across the warm sector to support organized storms if updrafts can persist and deepen. This evolution could support a few marginal supercells and/or stronger clusters during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two. Elevated storms will also be possible through the day/evening to the north of the richer surface moisture. While effective shear will be sufficient for a few strong elevated storms, the severe potential with northward extent will tend to be limited by weak midlevel lapse rates and generally marginal buoyancy. ...WA/OR/Northern CA coasts... Cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -24 to -28 deg C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough are expected to spread eastward throughout the day. These cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to modest buoyancy along the coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. Highest storm coverage is anticipated over the northern CA coast vicinity from the late morning into the early afternoon along as the frontal band moves through, but persistent forcing for ascent within this modestly buoyant airmass is expected to result in more cellular storms throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. A more linear mode is anticipated within the frontal band, with a few convectively enhanced gusts possible. Low-topped cellular activity is anticipated in the wake of the frontal band, with a few instances of small hail, and potentially even a brief tornado, possible. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms with strong to locally severe gusts are also possible near the immediate coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Plains through the MS Valley on Wednesday, becoming more negatively tilted as it does. An occluded surface low associated with this system will begin the period over the mid MO Valley before moving eastward across IA and reaching the northern IL early Thursday morning. More consequently for the severe-weather potential, a secondary triple-point low is expected to progress eastward across the northern portion of the Southeast states, along the northern edge of an eastward-evolving warm sector. Cold front associated with this low will gradually move eastward across the Southeast states during the day. Farther west, an upper-level trough is forecast to progress farther inland across the western CONUS, as an embedded shortwave trough moves across northern CA into the interior Northwest/northern Great Basin. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast... General expectation is for a triple-point surface low to evolve over the Mid-South vicinity through the early afternoon as low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the central Gulf Coast region. Dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s are anticipated ahead of this low and associated cold front. The airmass is expected to destabilize amid this low-level moisture, but overall buoyancy will still be modest given the lack of steep lapse rates. The combination of destabilization and increasing ascent is forecast to result in thunderstorm development across the warm sector, but along and ahead of the eastward-progressing cold front. The stronger shear will likely be displaced north of the stronger buoyancy, but enough shear is expected across the warm sector to support organized storms if updrafts can persist and deepen. This evolution could support a few marginal supercells and/or stronger clusters during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two. Elevated storms will also be possible through the day/evening to the north of the richer surface moisture. While effective shear will be sufficient for a few strong elevated storms, the severe potential with northward extent will tend to be limited by weak midlevel lapse rates and generally marginal buoyancy. ...WA/OR/Northern CA coasts... Cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -24 to -28 deg C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough are expected to spread eastward throughout the day. These cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to modest buoyancy along the coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. Highest storm coverage is anticipated over the northern CA coast vicinity from the late morning into the early afternoon along as the frontal band moves through, but persistent forcing for ascent within this modestly buoyant airmass is expected to result in more cellular storms throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. A more linear mode is anticipated within the frontal band, with a few convectively enhanced gusts possible. Low-topped cellular activity is anticipated in the wake of the frontal band, with a few instances of small hail, and potentially even a brief tornado, possible. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms with strong to locally severe gusts are also possible near the immediate coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Plains through the MS Valley on Wednesday, becoming more negatively tilted as it does. An occluded surface low associated with this system will begin the period over the mid MO Valley before moving eastward across IA and reaching the northern IL early Thursday morning. More consequently for the severe-weather potential, a secondary triple-point low is expected to progress eastward across the northern portion of the Southeast states, along the northern edge of an eastward-evolving warm sector. Cold front associated with this low will gradually move eastward across the Southeast states during the day. Farther west, an upper-level trough is forecast to progress farther inland across the western CONUS, as an embedded shortwave trough moves across northern CA into the interior Northwest/northern Great Basin. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast... General expectation is for a triple-point surface low to evolve over the Mid-South vicinity through the early afternoon as low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the central Gulf Coast region. Dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s are anticipated ahead of this low and associated cold front. The airmass is expected to destabilize amid this low-level moisture, but overall buoyancy will still be modest given the lack of steep lapse rates. The combination of destabilization and increasing ascent is forecast to result in thunderstorm development across the warm sector, but along and ahead of the eastward-progressing cold front. The stronger shear will likely be displaced north of the stronger buoyancy, but enough shear is expected across the warm sector to support organized storms if updrafts can persist and deepen. This evolution could support a few marginal supercells and/or stronger clusters during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two. Elevated storms will also be possible through the day/evening to the north of the richer surface moisture. While effective shear will be sufficient for a few strong elevated storms, the severe potential with northward extent will tend to be limited by weak midlevel lapse rates and generally marginal buoyancy. ...WA/OR/Northern CA coasts... Cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -24 to -28 deg C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough are expected to spread eastward throughout the day. These cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to modest buoyancy along the coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. Highest storm coverage is anticipated over the northern CA coast vicinity from the late morning into the early afternoon along as the frontal band moves through, but persistent forcing for ascent within this modestly buoyant airmass is expected to result in more cellular storms throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. A more linear mode is anticipated within the frontal band, with a few convectively enhanced gusts possible. Low-topped cellular activity is anticipated in the wake of the frontal band, with a few instances of small hail, and potentially even a brief tornado, possible. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms with strong to locally severe gusts are also possible near the immediate coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Plains through the MS Valley on Wednesday, becoming more negatively tilted as it does. An occluded surface low associated with this system will begin the period over the mid MO Valley before moving eastward across IA and reaching the northern IL early Thursday morning. More consequently for the severe-weather potential, a secondary triple-point low is expected to progress eastward across the northern portion of the Southeast states, along the northern edge of an eastward-evolving warm sector. Cold front associated with this low will gradually move eastward across the Southeast states during the day. Farther west, an upper-level trough is forecast to progress farther inland across the western CONUS, as an embedded shortwave trough moves across northern CA into the interior Northwest/northern Great Basin. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast... General expectation is for a triple-point surface low to evolve over the Mid-South vicinity through the early afternoon as low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the central Gulf Coast region. Dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s are anticipated ahead of this low and associated cold front. The airmass is expected to destabilize amid this low-level moisture, but overall buoyancy will still be modest given the lack of steep lapse rates. The combination of destabilization and increasing ascent is forecast to result in thunderstorm development across the warm sector, but along and ahead of the eastward-progressing cold front. The stronger shear will likely be displaced north of the stronger buoyancy, but enough shear is expected across the warm sector to support organized storms if updrafts can persist and deepen. This evolution could support a few marginal supercells and/or stronger clusters during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two. Elevated storms will also be possible through the day/evening to the north of the richer surface moisture. While effective shear will be sufficient for a few strong elevated storms, the severe potential with northward extent will tend to be limited by weak midlevel lapse rates and generally marginal buoyancy. ...WA/OR/Northern CA coasts... Cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -24 to -28 deg C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough are expected to spread eastward throughout the day. These cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to modest buoyancy along the coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. Highest storm coverage is anticipated over the northern CA coast vicinity from the late morning into the early afternoon along as the frontal band moves through, but persistent forcing for ascent within this modestly buoyant airmass is expected to result in more cellular storms throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. A more linear mode is anticipated within the frontal band, with a few convectively enhanced gusts possible. Low-topped cellular activity is anticipated in the wake of the frontal band, with a few instances of small hail, and potentially even a brief tornado, possible. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms with strong to locally severe gusts are also possible near the immediate coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Plains through the MS Valley on Wednesday, becoming more negatively tilted as it does. An occluded surface low associated with this system will begin the period over the mid MO Valley before moving eastward across IA and reaching the northern IL early Thursday morning. More consequently for the severe-weather potential, a secondary triple-point low is expected to progress eastward across the northern portion of the Southeast states, along the northern edge of an eastward-evolving warm sector. Cold front associated with this low will gradually move eastward across the Southeast states during the day. Farther west, an upper-level trough is forecast to progress farther inland across the western CONUS, as an embedded shortwave trough moves across northern CA into the interior Northwest/northern Great Basin. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast... General expectation is for a triple-point surface low to evolve over the Mid-South vicinity through the early afternoon as low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the central Gulf Coast region. Dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s are anticipated ahead of this low and associated cold front. The airmass is expected to destabilize amid this low-level moisture, but overall buoyancy will still be modest given the lack of steep lapse rates. The combination of destabilization and increasing ascent is forecast to result in thunderstorm development across the warm sector, but along and ahead of the eastward-progressing cold front. The stronger shear will likely be displaced north of the stronger buoyancy, but enough shear is expected across the warm sector to support organized storms if updrafts can persist and deepen. This evolution could support a few marginal supercells and/or stronger clusters during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two. Elevated storms will also be possible through the day/evening to the north of the richer surface moisture. While effective shear will be sufficient for a few strong elevated storms, the severe potential with northward extent will tend to be limited by weak midlevel lapse rates and generally marginal buoyancy. ...WA/OR/Northern CA coasts... Cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -24 to -28 deg C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough are expected to spread eastward throughout the day. These cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to modest buoyancy along the coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. Highest storm coverage is anticipated over the northern CA coast vicinity from the late morning into the early afternoon along as the frontal band moves through, but persistent forcing for ascent within this modestly buoyant airmass is expected to result in more cellular storms throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. A more linear mode is anticipated within the frontal band, with a few convectively enhanced gusts possible. Low-topped cellular activity is anticipated in the wake of the frontal band, with a few instances of small hail, and potentially even a brief tornado, possible. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms with strong to locally severe gusts are also possible near the immediate coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Plains through the MS Valley on Wednesday, becoming more negatively tilted as it does. An occluded surface low associated with this system will begin the period over the mid MO Valley before moving eastward across IA and reaching the northern IL early Thursday morning. More consequently for the severe-weather potential, a secondary triple-point low is expected to progress eastward across the northern portion of the Southeast states, along the northern edge of an eastward-evolving warm sector. Cold front associated with this low will gradually move eastward across the Southeast states during the day. Farther west, an upper-level trough is forecast to progress farther inland across the western CONUS, as an embedded shortwave trough moves across northern CA into the interior Northwest/northern Great Basin. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast... General expectation is for a triple-point surface low to evolve over the Mid-South vicinity through the early afternoon as low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the central Gulf Coast region. Dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s are anticipated ahead of this low and associated cold front. The airmass is expected to destabilize amid this low-level moisture, but overall buoyancy will still be modest given the lack of steep lapse rates. The combination of destabilization and increasing ascent is forecast to result in thunderstorm development across the warm sector, but along and ahead of the eastward-progressing cold front. The stronger shear will likely be displaced north of the stronger buoyancy, but enough shear is expected across the warm sector to support organized storms if updrafts can persist and deepen. This evolution could support a few marginal supercells and/or stronger clusters during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two. Elevated storms will also be possible through the day/evening to the north of the richer surface moisture. While effective shear will be sufficient for a few strong elevated storms, the severe potential with northward extent will tend to be limited by weak midlevel lapse rates and generally marginal buoyancy. ...WA/OR/Northern CA coasts... Cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -24 to -28 deg C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough are expected to spread eastward throughout the day. These cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to modest buoyancy along the coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. Highest storm coverage is anticipated over the northern CA coast vicinity from the late morning into the early afternoon along as the frontal band moves through, but persistent forcing for ascent within this modestly buoyant airmass is expected to result in more cellular storms throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. A more linear mode is anticipated within the frontal band, with a few convectively enhanced gusts possible. Low-topped cellular activity is anticipated in the wake of the frontal band, with a few instances of small hail, and potentially even a brief tornado, possible. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F into this evening. It still appears likely that deep convective potential across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F into this evening. It still appears likely that deep convective potential across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F into this evening. It still appears likely that deep convective potential across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F into this evening. It still appears likely that deep convective potential across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F into this evening. It still appears likely that deep convective potential across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F into this evening. It still appears likely that deep convective potential across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded southward based on current observations (winds gusting 20-45 mph, RH of 40-60%) and the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. RH and temperatures will be close to elevated criteria, but wind gusts of 25-50 mph and near to record setting high fire danger will create elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in the outlook area. The Elevated area in southern California remains on track. Overnight RH recovery was moderate to excellent with north-northwest wind gusts of 25-60 mph early this morning. The strongest winds will struggle to overlap with elevated/critical RH, but elevated fire weather conditions remain likely in portions of the Transverse Ranges/vicinity, primarily on southern/ocean-facing slopes. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California... A weak cold front will move across southern California through the morning. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery tonight into D2/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...New England... Gusty northwesterly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to 35-40 percent across New England this afternoon. Though relative humidity will be marginal, recent fire activity has shown fuels in this region are receptive to fire spread with drought conditions and very little recent rainfall. An Elevated delineation was included to cover this threat, given the potential for strong and gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded southward based on current observations (winds gusting 20-45 mph, RH of 40-60%) and the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. RH and temperatures will be close to elevated criteria, but wind gusts of 25-50 mph and near to record setting high fire danger will create elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in the outlook area. The Elevated area in southern California remains on track. Overnight RH recovery was moderate to excellent with north-northwest wind gusts of 25-60 mph early this morning. The strongest winds will struggle to overlap with elevated/critical RH, but elevated fire weather conditions remain likely in portions of the Transverse Ranges/vicinity, primarily on southern/ocean-facing slopes. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California... A weak cold front will move across southern California through the morning. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery tonight into D2/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...New England... Gusty northwesterly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to 35-40 percent across New England this afternoon. Though relative humidity will be marginal, recent fire activity has shown fuels in this region are receptive to fire spread with drought conditions and very little recent rainfall. An Elevated delineation was included to cover this threat, given the potential for strong and gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded southward based on current observations (winds gusting 20-45 mph, RH of 40-60%) and the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. RH and temperatures will be close to elevated criteria, but wind gusts of 25-50 mph and near to record setting high fire danger will create elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in the outlook area. The Elevated area in southern California remains on track. Overnight RH recovery was moderate to excellent with north-northwest wind gusts of 25-60 mph early this morning. The strongest winds will struggle to overlap with elevated/critical RH, but elevated fire weather conditions remain likely in portions of the Transverse Ranges/vicinity, primarily on southern/ocean-facing slopes. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California... A weak cold front will move across southern California through the morning. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery tonight into D2/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...New England... Gusty northwesterly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to 35-40 percent across New England this afternoon. Though relative humidity will be marginal, recent fire activity has shown fuels in this region are receptive to fire spread with drought conditions and very little recent rainfall. An Elevated delineation was included to cover this threat, given the potential for strong and gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded southward based on current observations (winds gusting 20-45 mph, RH of 40-60%) and the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. RH and temperatures will be close to elevated criteria, but wind gusts of 25-50 mph and near to record setting high fire danger will create elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in the outlook area. The Elevated area in southern California remains on track. Overnight RH recovery was moderate to excellent with north-northwest wind gusts of 25-60 mph early this morning. The strongest winds will struggle to overlap with elevated/critical RH, but elevated fire weather conditions remain likely in portions of the Transverse Ranges/vicinity, primarily on southern/ocean-facing slopes. ..Nauslar.. 11/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California... A weak cold front will move across southern California through the morning. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery tonight into D2/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...New England... Gusty northwesterly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to 35-40 percent across New England this afternoon. Though relative humidity will be marginal, recent fire activity has shown fuels in this region are receptive to fire spread with drought conditions and very little recent rainfall. An Elevated delineation was included to cover this threat, given the potential for strong and gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more