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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over much of the Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the region. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front in the Gulf Coast states, with surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, thunderstorm development is expected from near the front eastward across the much of the moist sector. Although instability will be weak, strong low-level flow will aid convective development, and a few severe storms will be possible. The greatest severe threat will exist in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast, where the combination of low-level shear and moisture may be enough for an isolated tornado threat. ..Broyles.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over much of the Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the region. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front in the Gulf Coast states, with surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, thunderstorm development is expected from near the front eastward across the much of the moist sector. Although instability will be weak, strong low-level flow will aid convective development, and a few severe storms will be possible. The greatest severe threat will exist in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast, where the combination of low-level shear and moisture may be enough for an isolated tornado threat. ..Broyles.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over much of the Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the region. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front in the Gulf Coast states, with surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, thunderstorm development is expected from near the front eastward across the much of the moist sector. Although instability will be weak, strong low-level flow will aid convective development, and a few severe storms will be possible. The greatest severe threat will exist in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast, where the combination of low-level shear and moisture may be enough for an isolated tornado threat. ..Broyles.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight. Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau... A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes is expected through midday. As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening, stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may persist across the Ozark Plateau. ...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity... A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a tornado and perhaps small hail. ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity... The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1 km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight. Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau... A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes is expected through midday. As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening, stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may persist across the Ozark Plateau. ...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity... A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a tornado and perhaps small hail. ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity... The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1 km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight. Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau... A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes is expected through midday. As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening, stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may persist across the Ozark Plateau. ...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity... A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a tornado and perhaps small hail. ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity... The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1 km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight. Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau... A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes is expected through midday. As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening, stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may persist across the Ozark Plateau. ...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity... A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a tornado and perhaps small hail. ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity... The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1 km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight. Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau... A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes is expected through midday. As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening, stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may persist across the Ozark Plateau. ...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity... A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a tornado and perhaps small hail. ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity... The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1 km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight. Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau... A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes is expected through midday. As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening, stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may persist across the Ozark Plateau. ...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity... A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a tornado and perhaps small hail. ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity... The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1 km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight. Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau... A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes is expected through midday. As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening, stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may persist across the Ozark Plateau. ...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity... A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a tornado and perhaps small hail. ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity... The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1 km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight. Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau... A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes is expected through midday. As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening, stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may persist across the Ozark Plateau. ...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity... A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a tornado and perhaps small hail. ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity... The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1 km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight. Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau... A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes is expected through midday. As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening, stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may persist across the Ozark Plateau. ...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity... A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a tornado and perhaps small hail. ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity... The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1 km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight. Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau... A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes is expected through midday. As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening, stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may persist across the Ozark Plateau. ...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity... A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a tornado and perhaps small hail. ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity... The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1 km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight. Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau... A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes is expected through midday. As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening, stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may persist across the Ozark Plateau. ...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity... A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a tornado and perhaps small hail. ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity... The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1 km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight. Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z. At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau... A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes is expected through midday. As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening, stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may persist across the Ozark Plateau. ...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity... A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a tornado and perhaps small hail. ...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity... The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1 km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024 Read more

WW 0709 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 709 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..11/18/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 709 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-081-103-105-107-115-125-135-151-165-169-173-207-227- 235-253-263-269-305-317-329-335-353-371-383-399-415-431-433-441- 443-451-461-180640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN COKE CRANE CROCKETT CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOWARD IRION JONES KENT KING LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN RUNNELS SCURRY STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2227 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PECOS AND CONCHO VALLEYS OF TEXAS NORTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 2227 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0853 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Areas affected...Pecos and Concho Valleys of Texas north into the South Plains/Big Country Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 180253Z - 180500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe-weather risk will gradually increase over the next several hours. Damaging wind gusts should be the primary risk initially, before tornado threat ramps up later tonight. An initial, Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be required in the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows thunderstorms beginning to strengthen across portions of western Texas across the Permian Basin region and vicinity. This convective increase is occurring ahead of a vigorous mid- and upper-level low moving east-northeastward with time across northern Mexico, and approaching southwestern New Mexico and Far Wast Texas. As this system advances, surface cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over western Texas, with the low shifting northward as it strengthens to a position over the South Plains region near daybreak. As the surface low develops, and southeasterlies at low-levels respond/strengthen, a warm front currently lying southwest-to-northeast across the Hill Country and into Northeast Texas will advance rapidly northward -- allowing an increasingly moist warm sector to overspread much of Texas and into southwestern Oklahoma overnight. In the meantime, modest instability is indicated across the western half of Texas, due to weak lapse rates aloft and dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. Still, increasing ascent ahead of the upper system is supporting the aforementioned/initial thunderstorm development from Far West Texas to the Permian Basin. As the surface low strengthens and shifts northward, an evolving cold front will advance eastward across western Texas -- becoming a focus for increasingly organized storms. Gradual moistening and some steepening of lapse rates aloft will allow modest increases in CAPE, further supporting convective evolution. The wind field preceding the advancing upper system is quite strong, more than sufficient for supercells. However, storm mode will likely tend toward a more linear configuration, with small-scale bowing segments expected. Damaging wind gusts will therefore become an increasing possibility with time. Despite favorably veering low-level flow with height, greater tornado risk will likely be realized later into the overnight period in tandem with the increasing low-level theta-e. ..Goss/Hart.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30500320 32180266 34000133 33730002 33019896 31559970 30510143 30500320 Read more

WW 0709 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0709 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...01z Update - TX/OK... No changes have been made to severe probabilities/categories with the 01z update. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next several hours across west TX, with the severe risk increasing in the 03z-06z time period when the low-level jet begins to markedly increase. This activity is expected to quickly develop into a line/QLCS and spread east/northeast across parts of central and western north TX into southwest OK tonight into early Monday morning. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible across the broader level 1 to 3 risk area. A corridor of Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) is expected across portions of western north TX into southwest OK closer to the deepening surface low, particularly in the 8z-12z time frame. Scattered severe gusts, some near 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are possible in this area. Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of greater severe potential. Surface-based instability may creep into central OK near the end of the period around 11z-12z, or perhaps just after. Regardless, strong wind field near/just above the surface may still pose a damaging wind risk, and perhaps a tornado, with early morning storms. ..Leitman.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...01z Update - TX/OK... No changes have been made to severe probabilities/categories with the 01z update. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next several hours across west TX, with the severe risk increasing in the 03z-06z time period when the low-level jet begins to markedly increase. This activity is expected to quickly develop into a line/QLCS and spread east/northeast across parts of central and western north TX into southwest OK tonight into early Monday morning. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible across the broader level 1 to 3 risk area. A corridor of Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) is expected across portions of western north TX into southwest OK closer to the deepening surface low, particularly in the 8z-12z time frame. Scattered severe gusts, some near 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are possible in this area. Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of greater severe potential. Surface-based instability may creep into central OK near the end of the period around 11z-12z, or perhaps just after. Regardless, strong wind field near/just above the surface may still pose a damaging wind risk, and perhaps a tornado, with early morning storms. ..Leitman.. 11/18/2024 Read more