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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of western to central SD/NE. Westerly gradient winds are expected to increase to 15-25 mph (gusting between 25-40 mph) by late afternoon as the surface low over the southern Plains migrates into the upper MS River Valley. While RH values will remain somewhat marginal (generally between 25-35%), fuel reports from local NWS offices and land agencies suggest fine fuels may support fire spread. Hence, a wind-driven Elevated risk area has been added to highlight the best overlap of dry fuels and strong winds. Forecast details regarding the southern CA coast remain on track as outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface high pressure system will be most intense on Tuesday morning within the southern Great Basin. An increase in offshore winds in southern California can be expected during the morning into perhaps the early afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to weaken through the day and upper-level winds will not be overly favorable as well. RH of 15-20% does appear probable, at least in the immediate lee of the terrain. With the strongest winds being somewhat offset from the lowest RH, the overall fire weather threat should be somewhat brief. Elevated fire weather is expected to occur, particularly within the terrain-favored areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of western to central SD/NE. Westerly gradient winds are expected to increase to 15-25 mph (gusting between 25-40 mph) by late afternoon as the surface low over the southern Plains migrates into the upper MS River Valley. While RH values will remain somewhat marginal (generally between 25-35%), fuel reports from local NWS offices and land agencies suggest fine fuels may support fire spread. Hence, a wind-driven Elevated risk area has been added to highlight the best overlap of dry fuels and strong winds. Forecast details regarding the southern CA coast remain on track as outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface high pressure system will be most intense on Tuesday morning within the southern Great Basin. An increase in offshore winds in southern California can be expected during the morning into perhaps the early afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to weaken through the day and upper-level winds will not be overly favorable as well. RH of 15-20% does appear probable, at least in the immediate lee of the terrain. With the strongest winds being somewhat offset from the lowest RH, the overall fire weather threat should be somewhat brief. Elevated fire weather is expected to occur, particularly within the terrain-favored areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of western to central SD/NE. Westerly gradient winds are expected to increase to 15-25 mph (gusting between 25-40 mph) by late afternoon as the surface low over the southern Plains migrates into the upper MS River Valley. While RH values will remain somewhat marginal (generally between 25-35%), fuel reports from local NWS offices and land agencies suggest fine fuels may support fire spread. Hence, a wind-driven Elevated risk area has been added to highlight the best overlap of dry fuels and strong winds. Forecast details regarding the southern CA coast remain on track as outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface high pressure system will be most intense on Tuesday morning within the southern Great Basin. An increase in offshore winds in southern California can be expected during the morning into perhaps the early afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to weaken through the day and upper-level winds will not be overly favorable as well. RH of 15-20% does appear probable, at least in the immediate lee of the terrain. With the strongest winds being somewhat offset from the lowest RH, the overall fire weather threat should be somewhat brief. Elevated fire weather is expected to occur, particularly within the terrain-favored areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of western to central SD/NE. Westerly gradient winds are expected to increase to 15-25 mph (gusting between 25-40 mph) by late afternoon as the surface low over the southern Plains migrates into the upper MS River Valley. While RH values will remain somewhat marginal (generally between 25-35%), fuel reports from local NWS offices and land agencies suggest fine fuels may support fire spread. Hence, a wind-driven Elevated risk area has been added to highlight the best overlap of dry fuels and strong winds. Forecast details regarding the southern CA coast remain on track as outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface high pressure system will be most intense on Tuesday morning within the southern Great Basin. An increase in offshore winds in southern California can be expected during the morning into perhaps the early afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to weaken through the day and upper-level winds will not be overly favorable as well. RH of 15-20% does appear probable, at least in the immediate lee of the terrain. With the strongest winds being somewhat offset from the lowest RH, the overall fire weather threat should be somewhat brief. Elevated fire weather is expected to occur, particularly within the terrain-favored areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of western to central SD/NE. Westerly gradient winds are expected to increase to 15-25 mph (gusting between 25-40 mph) by late afternoon as the surface low over the southern Plains migrates into the upper MS River Valley. While RH values will remain somewhat marginal (generally between 25-35%), fuel reports from local NWS offices and land agencies suggest fine fuels may support fire spread. Hence, a wind-driven Elevated risk area has been added to highlight the best overlap of dry fuels and strong winds. Forecast details regarding the southern CA coast remain on track as outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface high pressure system will be most intense on Tuesday morning within the southern Great Basin. An increase in offshore winds in southern California can be expected during the morning into perhaps the early afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to weaken through the day and upper-level winds will not be overly favorable as well. RH of 15-20% does appear probable, at least in the immediate lee of the terrain. With the strongest winds being somewhat offset from the lowest RH, the overall fire weather threat should be somewhat brief. Elevated fire weather is expected to occur, particularly within the terrain-favored areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of western to central SD/NE. Westerly gradient winds are expected to increase to 15-25 mph (gusting between 25-40 mph) by late afternoon as the surface low over the southern Plains migrates into the upper MS River Valley. While RH values will remain somewhat marginal (generally between 25-35%), fuel reports from local NWS offices and land agencies suggest fine fuels may support fire spread. Hence, a wind-driven Elevated risk area has been added to highlight the best overlap of dry fuels and strong winds. Forecast details regarding the southern CA coast remain on track as outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface high pressure system will be most intense on Tuesday morning within the southern Great Basin. An increase in offshore winds in southern California can be expected during the morning into perhaps the early afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to weaken through the day and upper-level winds will not be overly favorable as well. RH of 15-20% does appear probable, at least in the immediate lee of the terrain. With the strongest winds being somewhat offset from the lowest RH, the overall fire weather threat should be somewhat brief. Elevated fire weather is expected to occur, particularly within the terrain-favored areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of western to central SD/NE. Westerly gradient winds are expected to increase to 15-25 mph (gusting between 25-40 mph) by late afternoon as the surface low over the southern Plains migrates into the upper MS River Valley. While RH values will remain somewhat marginal (generally between 25-35%), fuel reports from local NWS offices and land agencies suggest fine fuels may support fire spread. Hence, a wind-driven Elevated risk area has been added to highlight the best overlap of dry fuels and strong winds. Forecast details regarding the southern CA coast remain on track as outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface high pressure system will be most intense on Tuesday morning within the southern Great Basin. An increase in offshore winds in southern California can be expected during the morning into perhaps the early afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to weaken through the day and upper-level winds will not be overly favorable as well. RH of 15-20% does appear probable, at least in the immediate lee of the terrain. With the strongest winds being somewhat offset from the lowest RH, the overall fire weather threat should be somewhat brief. Elevated fire weather is expected to occur, particularly within the terrain-favored areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of western to central SD/NE. Westerly gradient winds are expected to increase to 15-25 mph (gusting between 25-40 mph) by late afternoon as the surface low over the southern Plains migrates into the upper MS River Valley. While RH values will remain somewhat marginal (generally between 25-35%), fuel reports from local NWS offices and land agencies suggest fine fuels may support fire spread. Hence, a wind-driven Elevated risk area has been added to highlight the best overlap of dry fuels and strong winds. Forecast details regarding the southern CA coast remain on track as outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface high pressure system will be most intense on Tuesday morning within the southern Great Basin. An increase in offshore winds in southern California can be expected during the morning into perhaps the early afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to weaken through the day and upper-level winds will not be overly favorable as well. RH of 15-20% does appear probable, at least in the immediate lee of the terrain. With the strongest winds being somewhat offset from the lowest RH, the overall fire weather threat should be somewhat brief. Elevated fire weather is expected to occur, particularly within the terrain-favored areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast... The potent mid-level trough moving across the central Plains and Midwest on D1/Monday will move into the Great Lakes and weaken on D2/Tuesday. A slow advancing cold front will be left in its wake from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. An anomalously moist airmass will be in place with all time daily maximum PWAT values likely from Slidell, LA to Wilmington, OH with likely top 5 monthly all time maximum values. As a result, extensive cloudcover and precipitation is expected across the warm sector which will limit instability. In addition, forcing will be weakening through the day. The combination of the meager instability and lack of forcing will limit severe weather potential except for where upper 60s dewpoints are forecast, which should support at least some instability and damaging wind threat. The best potential for severe weather will be across far southeast LA, far southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle, where low 70s dewpoints will support around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ahead of the front, significant low-level wind shear will be present with 40 knots of flow at 1km and low-level veering winds. Therefore, some damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any stronger storms which can develop in this region during the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Cellular convection is possible along the Pacific Northwest coast after 06Z Wed as temperatures cool aloft and 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE develops along the coast. Any of these storms could have some gusty winds associated with them given around 40 knots of synoptic flow around 500 meters above the surface. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast... The potent mid-level trough moving across the central Plains and Midwest on D1/Monday will move into the Great Lakes and weaken on D2/Tuesday. A slow advancing cold front will be left in its wake from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. An anomalously moist airmass will be in place with all time daily maximum PWAT values likely from Slidell, LA to Wilmington, OH with likely top 5 monthly all time maximum values. As a result, extensive cloudcover and precipitation is expected across the warm sector which will limit instability. In addition, forcing will be weakening through the day. The combination of the meager instability and lack of forcing will limit severe weather potential except for where upper 60s dewpoints are forecast, which should support at least some instability and damaging wind threat. The best potential for severe weather will be across far southeast LA, far southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle, where low 70s dewpoints will support around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ahead of the front, significant low-level wind shear will be present with 40 knots of flow at 1km and low-level veering winds. Therefore, some damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any stronger storms which can develop in this region during the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Cellular convection is possible along the Pacific Northwest coast after 06Z Wed as temperatures cool aloft and 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE develops along the coast. Any of these storms could have some gusty winds associated with them given around 40 knots of synoptic flow around 500 meters above the surface. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast... The potent mid-level trough moving across the central Plains and Midwest on D1/Monday will move into the Great Lakes and weaken on D2/Tuesday. A slow advancing cold front will be left in its wake from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. An anomalously moist airmass will be in place with all time daily maximum PWAT values likely from Slidell, LA to Wilmington, OH with likely top 5 monthly all time maximum values. As a result, extensive cloudcover and precipitation is expected across the warm sector which will limit instability. In addition, forcing will be weakening through the day. The combination of the meager instability and lack of forcing will limit severe weather potential except for where upper 60s dewpoints are forecast, which should support at least some instability and damaging wind threat. The best potential for severe weather will be across far southeast LA, far southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle, where low 70s dewpoints will support around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ahead of the front, significant low-level wind shear will be present with 40 knots of flow at 1km and low-level veering winds. Therefore, some damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any stronger storms which can develop in this region during the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Cellular convection is possible along the Pacific Northwest coast after 06Z Wed as temperatures cool aloft and 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE develops along the coast. Any of these storms could have some gusty winds associated with them given around 40 knots of synoptic flow around 500 meters above the surface. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast... The potent mid-level trough moving across the central Plains and Midwest on D1/Monday will move into the Great Lakes and weaken on D2/Tuesday. A slow advancing cold front will be left in its wake from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. An anomalously moist airmass will be in place with all time daily maximum PWAT values likely from Slidell, LA to Wilmington, OH with likely top 5 monthly all time maximum values. As a result, extensive cloudcover and precipitation is expected across the warm sector which will limit instability. In addition, forcing will be weakening through the day. The combination of the meager instability and lack of forcing will limit severe weather potential except for where upper 60s dewpoints are forecast, which should support at least some instability and damaging wind threat. The best potential for severe weather will be across far southeast LA, far southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle, where low 70s dewpoints will support around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ahead of the front, significant low-level wind shear will be present with 40 knots of flow at 1km and low-level veering winds. Therefore, some damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any stronger storms which can develop in this region during the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Cellular convection is possible along the Pacific Northwest coast after 06Z Wed as temperatures cool aloft and 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE develops along the coast. Any of these storms could have some gusty winds associated with them given around 40 knots of synoptic flow around 500 meters above the surface. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast... The potent mid-level trough moving across the central Plains and Midwest on D1/Monday will move into the Great Lakes and weaken on D2/Tuesday. A slow advancing cold front will be left in its wake from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. An anomalously moist airmass will be in place with all time daily maximum PWAT values likely from Slidell, LA to Wilmington, OH with likely top 5 monthly all time maximum values. As a result, extensive cloudcover and precipitation is expected across the warm sector which will limit instability. In addition, forcing will be weakening through the day. The combination of the meager instability and lack of forcing will limit severe weather potential except for where upper 60s dewpoints are forecast, which should support at least some instability and damaging wind threat. The best potential for severe weather will be across far southeast LA, far southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle, where low 70s dewpoints will support around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ahead of the front, significant low-level wind shear will be present with 40 knots of flow at 1km and low-level veering winds. Therefore, some damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any stronger storms which can develop in this region during the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Cellular convection is possible along the Pacific Northwest coast after 06Z Wed as temperatures cool aloft and 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE develops along the coast. Any of these storms could have some gusty winds associated with them given around 40 knots of synoptic flow around 500 meters above the surface. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more