Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Javier, located about 100 miles west of the south-central
portion of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in
association with an area of low pressure located just off the coast
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days, and
interests in those locations and the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC,
and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the Desert Southwest, the southern Great Plains, and the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio River Valleys, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Interior Southern CA to northwest AZ... Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated over interior southern CA and northwest AZ along the northern edge of a deep moisture plume. Although the stronger midlevel flow will reside farther south near the international border, slightly stronger mid-level easterly flow averaging 25 kts and steep low-level lapse rates will result in an environment conducive for isolated strong/severe wind gusts. ...Northern/west-central OK to far southern KS... Increasing frontal convergence and minimal CINH will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development by early evening along a slow-moving surface front. RAP/NAM forecast soundings depict a deep/well-mixed atmosphere and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. Within this environment, an isolated stronger storm will be capable of producing strong/potentially severe gusts. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH River Valleys... An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected this afternoon/early evening east of a weak midlevel trough. Despite poor lapse rates, a very moist environment and modestly enhanced mid-level flow (20-25 kts) may yield a few storms capable of wet microbursts, especially where breaks in cloud cover result in locally greater buoyancy. Storms should diminish in intensity as the evening progresses. ..Bunting/Gleason.. 09/03/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON...FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous outlook below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 09/03/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022/ ...Synopsis... A progressive shortwave trough, evident in water-vapor imagery moving into northern California, will usher in strong winds to the northern Great Basin this afternoon. This will regionally bolster the fire weather potential after several days of hot/dry weather. Fire weather concerns are also expected to the east across the northern High Plains as gradient winds increase through the day over a region with dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin... The jet axis associated with the northern CA shortwave trough is expected to shift across the northern Sierra Nevada into central ID through peak heating. The phasing of increasing 800-700 mb winds with deep boundary-layer mixing will support 15-25 mph winds at the surface with frequent gusts between 30-40 mph. Poor overnight RH recovery is noted across the northern Great Basin early this morning, and afternoon highs near 100 F are expected again this afternoon. Consequently, diurnal RH minimums near 5-15% are likely and will support widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Fire activity across the region, supported by recent fuel analyses, lend further credence to the fire weather threat. ...Northern High Plains... Troughing in the lee of the northern Rockies will support increasing southeasterly gradient winds across eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Sustained winds near 15 mph, with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph, are likely. Combined with RH reductions into the low/mid teens, elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a large swath of the northern High Plains. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Advected PWAT satellite imagery shows a plume of 700-500 mb moisture quickly advancing northward ahead of the northern CA shortwave trough. Strong ascent ahead of the wave will help steepen lapse rates and aid in ascent across WA into far western MT by this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings hint that adequate buoyancy for convection atop a dry boundary-layer will limit precipitation accumulations and favor isolated dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuel status across most of the region, a dry-lightning fire weather concern remains likely for today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 the center of Javier was located near 25.8, -115.4 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031450 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 The satellite presentation of Javier has continued to deteriorate over the past few hours. The deep convective burst noted in the previous discussion has rotated to the southern portion of the circulation and cloud top temperatures have warmed to above -70 degrees C. Microwave and infrared imagery show the northern half of the semicircle to be devoid of any deep convection. A blend of the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support lowering the intensity to 40 kt for this advisory. Javier appears to have begun its weakening trend. The system has crossed over waters cooler than 26 degrees C and the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track are expected to be progressively colder. Atmospheric conditions are also predicted to not be conducive for any additional strengthening. Global models suggest that the vertical wind shear should increase and the environmental moisture to decrease within a day. Based on this information and guidance, the official forecast now shows Javier becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours and weakening to a remnant within two days. The initial motion is estimated to be 325 degrees at 13 kt. Though the center of Javier appears to have shifted slightly to the north, the storm is expected to be steered northwestward by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Within a day or less, model guidance agrees that the ridge should turn Javier to the west-northwest. Low-level tradewinds are expected to turn a weakening Javier to the west and west-southwest beyond 48 hours. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly northward from the previous advisory prediction and is close the model consensus aids. Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the coast of Mexico, any additional eastward or northward deviations from the official track forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of Baja California Sur, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through today. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 25.1N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 26.4N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 27.3N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 05/0000Z 27.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/1200Z 27.7N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z 27.4N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 27.1N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 26.6N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z 26.2N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022 705 WTPZ21 KNHC 031448 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 114.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 114.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.4N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.3N 119.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.7N 121.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.7N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.4N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 27.1N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.6N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 26.2N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 114.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART

 The Sutton fire held at 108 acres and is 95% contained. The official closure order for the area, roads, and trails in the vicinity of the fire has been terminated and the area is now open. Please use caution if in the area as it is a burned area that may contain potential hazards including loose rocks, falling trees and limbs, flash flooding and debris flows. Portions of the trail may be damaged or blocked with

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 2 17:48:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 2 17:48:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Javier, located a couple hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California.

South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend
or early next week while it moves westward and then
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Javier are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Javier are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across the higher terrain of western Arizona by late Saturday afternoon, and may spread into parts of the lower Colorado Valley and Mojave Desert Saturday evening. ...AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV... Easterly midlevel flow will persist on Saturday across AZ and adjacent portions of southeast CA and southern NV, to the south of a stout upper ridge over the Great Basin. Some drying is expected across southern AZ (compared to D1/Friday), but low-level moisture may remain sufficient for weak to moderate destabilization from the higher terrain of west-central AZ into parts of the Colorado River Valley and Mojave Desert. Storm coverage remains uncertain during the afternoon/evening, but isolated development will be possible near the western part of the Mogollon Rim. Initial discrete development will pose a threat for strong wind gusts and perhaps isolated hail, with any upscale-growing clusters capable of strong/locally severe gusts into the evening as they spread west-southwestward within the easterly midlevel flow regime. ...Southern Plains... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the southern Plains on Saturday, though it may tend to weaken and become increasingly ill-defined with time. While large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible near the front during the afternoon. Moderate instability and modest northerly deep-layer shear could support some organized convection, though uncertainty remains high regarding storm coverage and the primary corridor of any severe threat, so probabilities have not been introduced at this time. ...Parts of the OH/TN Valleys... Widespread convection will be possible across parts of the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, east of a nearly stationary midlevel trough over the eastern Ozarks region. Isolated downbursts cannot be ruled out during the afternoon, but midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear currently appear too weak to support a more organized severe-thunderstorm threat within this regime. ..Dean.. 09/02/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA... The primary change made to this outlook was to expand Critical highlights further west into south-central Oregon, where the latest guidance consensus has trended more favorably in terms of Critical surface winds/RH overlapping for several hours late this afternoon. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022/ ...Synopsis... Great Basin ridging is forecast to remain in place over the next several days, but will deamplify slightly as a shortwave trough impinges on its western periphery late tonight. Ahead of the approaching trough, strengthening flow over the northern Sierra will bolster low-level winds across the northern Great Basin and portions of the Northwest. At the same time, a weak cold front will move into the Plains supporting dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible across the Great Basin and central Plains. ...Northern Great Basin to the southern Cascades... Ahead of the trough moving onshore across the West Coast, mid-level flow is forecast to increase late in the day across portions of northern CA/NV, into southern OR. Dry downslope flow from the Sierra, and warm diurnal temperatures will result in afternoon RH values of 10-15%. As flow aloft strengthens, occasional gusts of 15-25 mph should develop within the warm and dry airmass. With area fuels critically dry, spotty critical fire weather conditions appear probable into the evening hours. Farther north, enhanced westerly flow through terrain gaps in the lee of the Cascades may occasionally gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon. With very warm temperatures expected RH values are forecast to fall to near 30%. Dry and unstable condition may support a few hours of locally elevated fire weather concerns mainly across portions of interior WA where fuels are very dry. ...Central Plains... In the wake of a cold front moving south out of the northern Plains, gusty northwest winds are expected within a modestly dry post-frontal airmass across portions of western NE and northern CO. While RH will be marginally supportive (25-30%) the gusty winds and locally dry fuels should support a few hours of elevated fire weather risk through the afternoon. Fire concerns will decrease quickly this evening and overnight as better humidity recoveries develop within the cooler air behind the front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening over parts of central/southern Arizona and the Lower Colorado River Valley, and from the central Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. ...Arizona/Lower Colorado Valley... Visible satellite shows relatively cloud-free skies, which will be conducive for ample insolation/heating coincident with a relatively moist air mass, with prevalent 60s F surface dewpoints in the lower elevations of southern Arizona and middle 50s F dewpoints along the Mogollon Rim as of late morning. An increase in storm coverage as compared to yesterday seems probable. Easterly mid-level/steering winds are and will remain notably strong as the upper high builds to the north over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Upwards of 25-30 kt mid-level winds are plausible across the southern half of Arizona, which would be conducive for storm organization/upscale growth and propagation onto the lower elevations/desert floor and Lower Colorado River Valley. Initial discrete development over the higher terrain/near the Rim will pose a risk for localized severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. However, a more organized/substantial wind threat may emerge with upscale-growing/MCS development by evening. ...Central Plains to Upper Great Lakes... The primary shortwave trough over northeast Manitoba will shift east across southern Hudson Bay/far northern Ontario, with the trailing part of this trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes. A weak mid-level trough will meander east across the Ozarks. In between these features, deep-layer shear will be enhanced across the central Great Plains owing to 25-35 kt mid-level north-northwesterly winds. Weaker deep-layer shear is anticipated with northeast extent along a cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest. A greater potential for scattered thunderstorms along the front should exist in the southeast Minnesota/northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan vicinity given more pronounced low-level convergence and trailing influence of the Ontario trough. Multicell clusters mainly producing isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail will be the primary threats. A more isolated thunderstorm coverage is anticipated into southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, but given the greater vertical shear and nearly perpendicular orientation of mid-level flow with respect to the front, a few transient supercells embedded within a cluster or two may develop. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible, with increasing MLCIN after dusk being detrimental for sustaining severe potential later into the evening. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/02/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Sep 2022 14:49:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Sep 2022 15:30:29 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 854 WTPZ41 KNHC 021447 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 While quite broad, Javier continues to improve in organization. Deep convection has been forming near the center of the circulation with cold cloud tops below -80 degrees C. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt to represent a blend of the Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB. The storm is expected to be over warm waters (greater than 26 degrees C) for another 24 hours. Global models also indicate atmospheric conditions should be conducive for additional strengthening, with weak vertical wind shear and ample environmental moisture. But due to Javier's elongated structure, the official forecast calls for the system to only slightly intensify in the next day. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and enters a drier, more stable environment. Javier is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. The storm is moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north. In the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to build westward and turn Javier toward the west-northwest and west. The official forecast is again adjusted to the right of the previous forecast towards the multi-model consensus aids. However, tropical-storm-force winds generated by the storm are predicted to remain offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur. Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 20.7N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 087 FOPZ11 KNHC 021447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 20(20) 16(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 25N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021446 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 ...JAVIER GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 112.2W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 112.2 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and an increase in forward speed is expected through early Saturday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Saturday before Javier begins to weaken on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 4 inches across portions of Baja California Sur through this weekend. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

...JAVIER GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 2 the center of Javier was located near 20.7, -112.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Above normal rainfall led the S.C. Drought Response Committee to ease the drought status for 10 counties on the coastal plain of South Carolina. Fourteen counties are still in incipient drought. Lancaster was upgraded to incipient and three counties -- Chester, Union and York -- were upgraded to moderate. As designated by the South Carolina Drought Response Act, incipient is the first level of drought followed by moderate, severe and extreme. The decision to upgrade York, Chester and Union counties was primarily based on very low rainfall totals over the past 60 days. Cotton from these counties will not be harvested. Orangeburg Times and Democrat (S.C.), Sept 1, 2022