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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... On the east side of a prominent upper ridge over the western CONUS, a weak mid-level perturbation should move southeastward across parts of the central Plains on Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to return northward through the day across the central High Plains on the western periphery of a surface high centered over eastern KS and MO. Scattered thunderstorms should develop from northeastern CO into NE Wednesday afternoon along and south of a weak boundary. Strong daytime heating will act to deeply mix the boundary layer across these regions, with forecast soundings showing inverted-v type soundings. Even though instability should remain fairly weak, with MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg, substantial DCAPE should promote a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts with convective downdrafts as thunderstorms spread southeastward through the early evening. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear should also foster some convective organization, with loosely organized clusters possible. ...Western New York... An amplified upper trough will continue eastward over the Northeast and eastern Canada on Wednesday. A mid-level shortwave embedded within this upper trough should overspread Ontario, southern Quebec, and NY through the day. Enhanced mid-level winds will accompany this feature, with strong deep-layer shear also present. Most guidance shows a band of thunderstorms developing and spreading quickly eastward across parts of western/northern NY Wednesday afternoon. Some risk for strong/gusty winds may accompany this convection, but instability is forecast to remain rather weak. Given the potential thermodynamic limitations, have opted to not include low severe wind probabilities at this time. But, trends will be monitored. ..Gleason.. 08/30/2022 Read more

MD 1750 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NY...EASTERN PA...NORTHWEST NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1750 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Areas affected...Eastern NY...Eastern PA...Northwest NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301701Z - 301900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as thunderstorm coverage increases this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus from eastern PA and into eastern NY, with a few instances of convective initiation east of BGM. This deepening is occurring in the vicinity of weak surface troughing ahead a broad upper trough still back west over the Upper Great Lakes and the middle OH Valley. Expectation is for this trend to continue as large-scale forcing for ascent and modest low-level convergence persist. This should result in gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. The expectation is for these thunderstorms to develop within the moist and warm corridor ahead of the thicker cloud band, but to the west of the clearer skies and stronger diurnal heating from the lower Hudson Valley and across much of NJ. Steeper low-level lapse rates are expected in these areas of stronger heating, but this mixing will limit buoyancy and thunderstorm intensity. Expectation is for a predominantly multicellular storm mode, with limited updraft strength. Even so, a few water-loaded downbursts are still possible, particularly with any storms that are able develop strong updrafts. Storm mergers could also result in enough water loading to produce a damaging downburst. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 08/30/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 42647609 43507524 43727479 43797446 43767408 43647383 43457351 43007337 42397357 41067434 40167509 39787618 40017721 41277705 42647609 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain limited today. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/30/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the CONUS. A broad upper ridge will continue to build to the west across the Great Basin today. This will favor warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions across much of the West that will aid in drying fuels. However, this will also result in meager low to mid-level flow, mitigating overall fire weather potential. Localized concerns may emerge across parts of the northern Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Northern Great Basin into eastern Oregon... Locally breezy winds are possible this afternoon across the northern Great Basin into parts of eastern OR as deep boundary-layer mixing, combined with local terrain enhancements, support occasional gusts to 15-20 mph. Antecedent warm/dry conditions with RH values in the teens will allow for pockets of elevated conditions. Such conditions will likely remain too limited spatially and temporally to require highlights, but may result in local fire weather concerns - especially given the potential for holdover fires from early-morning lightning strikes across portions of northwest NV. Additional isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across eastern OR/western ID as the weak upper disturbance lifts north/northeast, but the probability of thunderstorms remains too limited to introduce lightning-driven highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM VA NORTHWARD TO NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon/evening from Virginia northward into New York and northern New England. ...VA to NY and northern New England this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough over IN/OH will move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and New England by tonight, along with an associated surface cold front. A thick cloud band precedes the midlevel trough and accompanies the frontal zone, and midlevel lapse rates are poor in the warm sector. Differential heating and ascent along the east edge of the thicker clouds will support thunderstorm development in bands early this afternoon from northern VA northward across central/eastern PA and NY. Surface temperatures warming into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg, though poor midlevel lapse rates and relatively moist profiles in the zone of storm initiation will tend to mute downdraft potential. Thus, isolated strong outflow gusts and some wind damage may occur with the stronger clusters/line segments this afternoon in an environment with roughly 30 kt midlevel flow, but the potential for severe outflow winds appears to be low enough to maintain 5% wind/Marginal risk. ...Lower MS Valley area this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface temperatures to warm to near or just above 90 F, while boundary-layer dewpoints will be maintained in the low-mid 70s. Forcing for ascent and vertical shear will be weak, but widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon as convective inhibition is removed via daytime heating/mixing. Regional 12z soundings revealed the potential for afternoon MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, but relatively moist profiles will limit the potential for intense downdrafts. Isolated/localized wind damage could occur with precipitation-loaded downdrafts, but the potential for severe outflow winds appears too low to warrant adding an outlook area. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 08/30/2022 Read more

On Monday, August 29th, Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance on an active fire in remote parts of Shackleford County. The Mudpass Fire is on a large ranch approximately 10 miles northeast of Albany, burning in pasture land with brush and grass fuels. Several thunderstorms in the area have produces sporadic winds, coupled with critically dry fuels are producing extreme fire behavior. Dozers and a motorgrader are currently constructing containment line around the fire with support from engines and

Farmers and ag experts expect this summer’s dry weather to affect grain and fruit production. The dry weather occurred when the corn was pollinating. A late freeze also affected roughly 40% of the apple crop. The Daily Item (Moosic, Pa.), Aug 27, 2022

The recent dry weather forced a Schuylkill County sunflower farm to close two weeks earlier than in past years. WNEP (Moosic, Pa.), Aug 29, 2022

The owner of a farm market in Muscle Shoals said that he has received less than half of the normal produce from local farmers, due to drought. WHNT 19 News (Huntsville, Ala.), Aug 29, 2022

Final Daily Update (pdf)    |     Final Fire Map (pdf)     |     Sequoia National Forest Facebook     |    Wishon Fire - Drop-Box Photo and Video Folder  Firefighting personnel from USDA Forest Service, CAL FIRE, Tulare County, and other cooperators responded to the Wishon Fire on August 15 in the Tule River Canyon near The Stairs on the Western Divide Ranger District of the Sequoia National Forest.   The fire is estimated at 325 acres with 95% containment.  At its peak, approximately 328 firefighters were assigned to the incident.Power Restoration:   All Power has been restored to SCE customers.  SCE helps you prepare for wildfires and related power issues at: sce.com/wildfire Evacuations and Closures:  The Tulare County Sheriff has lifted all evacuation warnings including Wishon Camp and Doyle Springs, and the California Highway Patrol has lifted all road closures. Firefighters, heavy equipment and utility companies will continue to be working in the...

MD 1742 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527... FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1742 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Areas affected...northern Illinois and Indiana...southwest Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527... Valid 291753Z - 292000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts remain possible across watch 527, and an additional watch may be needed downstream into parts of Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. DISCUSSION...A complex of storms with northern and southern outflow bulges has gradually strengthened this afternoon, with gusts generally 40-50 kt across northern IL. The northern section of this line is now crossing into Lake MI, and will eventually emerge into southwest Lower MI where strong instability is in place. The southern half of the complex also remains strong, and may become dominant as it moves down the 3000+ MLCAPE instability axis into IN later this afternoon. As such, an additional watch could be needed prior to 19Z. ..Jewell.. 08/29/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 42318797 42128799 41918800 41678831 41678879 41498894 41178910 40988926 40828908 40648860 40498825 40478723 40518562 41088497 41798477 42208489 42488539 42588603 42458783 42318797 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291744
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwest Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some development of
this system is possible toward the end of the week while it moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

The fire danger is rising in New Jersey, due to the hot, dry weather. Leaves were also falling prematurely from trees and would not normally fall until mid to late October. The dry conditions and newly fallen leaves could combine to elevate the fire danger quickly. Over the past week, there were 81 fires statewide, about 40% more than normal for this time of year. New Jersey 101.5 (Ewing, N.J.), Aug. 29, 2022

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MLI TO 25 NE MLI TO 45 ENE MLI TO 35 WNW MMO TO 30 NNW MMO TO 30 SSE RFD TO 25 E JVL. ..JEWELL..08/29/22 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-031-037-043-053-063-071-073-075-089-091-093-095-097-099- 105-111-123-131-143-155-161-175-187-195-197-203-291840- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY HENDERSON HENRY IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY MARSHALL MERCER PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STARK WARREN WHITESIDE WILL WOODFORD INC007-073-089-111-127-291840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER Read more

WW 527 SEVERE TSTM IA IL LM 291510Z - 292100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 527 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeastern Iowa Northern Illinois Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 1010 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Developing storms near the Mississippi River are expected to growth into a larger cluster through late morning into the afternoon, with an increase in the potential for damaging winds and isolated large hail across northern Illinois. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from Moline IL to 65 miles east northeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Thompson Read more

 THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERY There are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands: -       Fire Suppression Repair -       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) -       Long-Term Recovery and Restoration o   Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts. o   Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System...

Sunderland enacted a lawn watering ban as the aquifer level continued to drop. The ban extends through Nov. 1. Amherst Bulletin (Mass.), Aug. 29, 2022

MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN OK...FAR SOUTHEAST KS...FAR SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Areas affected...Northern OK...Far Southeast KS...Far Southwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291708Z - 291915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and/or hail are expected this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A very moist air mass is in place over the region, with recent surface observations sampling dewpoints in the low 70s and recent mesoanalysis estimated precipitable water around 1.9" to 2.0". Thermodynamic profiles are relatively warm, but these moist conditions amid surface temperatures already in the upper 80s to low 90s still result in moderate buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is around 2000-2500 J/kg across the region. Large-scale forcing for ascent is nebulous, with much of it focused well north of the region. Even so, low-level convergence along the numerous outflow boundaries has already promoted a few storms, and that trend is expected to continue this afternoon. A few updrafts may be strong enough to produce hail, but the primary severe risk will be damaging wind gusts associated with wet downbursts. Sporadic/isolated nature of the severe risk is expected to preclude the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 08/29/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36199946 36799783 37529529 37449398 36269452 35229826 36199946 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional wind damage Tuesday afternoon and early evening across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... An elongated upper trough should extend from central Canada southward over the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and OH Valley regions Tuesday morning. This upper trough is forecast to move eastward across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the period. Heating of a moist low-level airmass should occur ahead of a cold front that is likewise expected to sweep eastward over these regions. However, persistent cloudiness and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the degree of instability that develops Tuesday afternoon, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE stays generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range. The stronger mid-level southwesterly winds attendant to the upper trough should tend to lag the surface warm sector to some extent. But, around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear should still be present across much of the warm sector Tuesday afternoon. This shear will aid in modest updraft organization, with multicells and loosely organized clusters expected to be the dominant convective mode. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity Tuesday afternoon along/ahead of the cold front. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main severe threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through early Tuesday evening, before eventually weakening. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across these regions based on latest model trends, with the southern extent of appreciable severe risk remaining uncertain. There was not enough confidence in a more focused area of damaging wind potential to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/29/2022 Read more

Drought stunted corn growth in Connecticut, and ears have stopped growing. Some corn growers were unsure of whether to bother with harvesting as yields were down 25% to 75%. Local farmers anticipate that the cost of feeding cattle will climb as they will need to purchase dry hay as replacement feed. Corn was being harvested weeks earlier than usual rather than waiting and losing nutritional value. Farmers were looking for feed alternatives. Hay fields that often allow three cuttings have stopped growing, so farmers may only get two cuttings this year, if that. Waterbury Republican-American (Ct.), Aug. 27, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/29/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the Great Lakes Region as an upper ridge builds across the western CONUS today, with weak mid-level impulses expected to pivot around the upper ridge. Deep-layer northwesterly dry flow will envelop the Plains states behind the cold front. At the surface, near-Elevated to Elevated dry and windy conditions are forecast, particularly over South Dakota. However, recent rainfall has dampened fuel receptiveness to a degree, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more