Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from parts of the central Plains into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys on Friday. ...Synopsis... A belt of relatively strong westerlies will remain situated over the northern Rockies and Plains, as will a surface low over southwest KS. A warm front is forecast from northern KS into northern MO, and this is where mid 70s F dewpoints and backed surface winds will likely reside. Farther west, moist northeast surface winds will bring a boundary westward into northeast CO. A shortwave trough embedded in the westerlies will move from SD/NE toward the Upper MS Valley, and this will induce increasing southerly 850 mb winds across the central Plains and mid MS Valley, maintaining a feed of unstable air toward the warm front region. ...Central Plains into the Lower MO and mid MS Valleys... Storms, possibly in the form of an MCS, are likely to be ongoing from eastern KS into MO, and may persist into western IL by midday. Strong wind gusts are possible with this activity, but weakening is expected as the low-level jet backs during the day. Any outflow boundaries are expected to modify over KS and MO, with a low-level lapse rate plume extending from the southern Plains into central KS. The greatest theta-e is thus expected to develop over KS during the day, spreading into southeast NE and into northern MO during the evening. Extreme instability is expected over KS, with storms most numerous after 00Z along the east-west boundary from northeast KS into northern MO. Given that this forecast is several days out, the exact corridor is likely to shift, but potentially damaging winds will be possible with a severe MCS Friday evening and overnight. Particularly damaging winds are possible should the more unstable model solutions verify. In addition, the extreme instability along with increasing low-level SRH near the warm front during the evening will likely favor at least isolated supercells with a tornado risk. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2019 Read more

MD 1734 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1734 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of the Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 140725Z - 140900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated strong storm or two, posing some risk for severe hail and wind, appears possible through about 3-4 AM MDT. DISCUSSION...Synoptic forcing for ascent appears weak to negligible. However, relatively moist southeasterly/easterly low-level upslope flow, aided by lift associated with a southward advancing convectively generated outflow boundary appear to be contributing to recent thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Some further intensification appears possible during the next hour or so, supported by inflow of boundary layer air still characterized by CAPE up to around 1500 J/kg. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, due to pronounced veering of winds with height beneath 20-25+ kt northwesterly flow around 500 mb, one or two supercell structures appears possible. As activity tends to propagate south-southeastward, it may pose a risk for at least marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before waning after 09-10Z. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37070416 36840281 35690275 35280360 35990420 36310446 37070416 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and northern Plains on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are possible from Ohio into western Pennsylvania and New York, and over the eastern Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Moderately strong mid to high-level flow will persist from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Northeast, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. One wave will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast, with 35 kt midlevel winds increasing to over 50 kt at 300 mb. This wave will interact with a weak surface low and mid 60s F dewpoints, supporting a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude progressive shortwave trough will dive southeast out of MT and across the northern Plains, providing ample deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates to support severe storms near a cold front moving southeastward across the Dakotas. Another area of severe weather is possible from NE into KS with a leading wave, in association with possible early-day storms and northeast of a surface low over southwest KS. ...Black Hills into central SD and northern NE... Ample heating will occur ahead of an approaching cold front with dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 50s F. Deep-layer shear profiles will be strong for this time of year, with elongated straight-line hodographs developing. Storms may develop by 18Z as capping will be eroded with little heating. Scattered severe storms capable of large hail are expected, and a wind threat may develop along the front as storms merge. A few longer-lived storms will persist at least into northern NE where the air mass will have time to recover from possible early day storms. ...NE into KS... Storms may be ongoing early in the day from central NE into northeast KS, on the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Despite the time of day, this activity may be severe with damaging winds or isolated hail. South of this activity, heating will lead to strong destabilization, and may sustain any ongoing storms or support new development along outflow boundaries. The deeply mixed boundary layer along with steep lapse rates aloft will support propagating storms producing severe outflow winds, especially on the nose of the steeper low-level lapse rates into central and east-central KS. ...Eastern OH into western PA and NY... An upper level trough will move quickly east from the OH Valley into the Northeast, with modest mid to upper-level westerlies and cooling aloft. Mid 60s F dewpoints will exist from OH into PA with a weak surface low over OH, aiding both lift and instability. Scattered storms are likely to form over OH near the low and will spread into PA and NY. Although low-level winds will be weak, they will veer with height, and this may support an isolated supercell with a brief/weak tornado not out of the question. Otherwise, marginal wind and hail will be possible. ...Eastern Carolinas... A surface trough will develop during the day with westerly winds aloft and strong heating. MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg appears possible with 70s F dewpoints. Although winds below 500 mb will generally be less than 20 kt, they will veer with height, which may aid updraft propagation, while good mid to upper-level winds elongate the hodographs and help sustain the storms. Scattered storms producing locally strong wind gusts or marginal hail are expected by early afternoon, with a broken line of storms approaching the coast by evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% SIG - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/14/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and northern Plains on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are possible from Ohio into western Pennsylvania and New York, and over the eastern Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Moderately strong mid to high-level flow will persist from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Northeast, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. One wave will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast, with 35 kt midlevel winds increasing to over 50 kt at 300 mb. This wave will interact with a weak surface low and mid 60s F dewpoints, supporting a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude progressive shortwave trough will dive southeast out of MT and across the northern Plains, providing ample deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates to support severe storms near a cold front moving southeastward across the Dakotas. Another area of severe weather is possible from NE into KS with a leading wave, in association with possible early-day storms and northeast of a surface low over southwest KS. ...Black Hills into central SD and northern NE... Ample heating will occur ahead of an approaching cold front with dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 50s F. Deep-layer shear profiles will be strong for this time of year, with elongated straight-line hodographs developing. Storms may develop by 18Z as capping will be eroded with little heating. Scattered severe storms capable of large hail are expected, and a wind threat may develop along the front as storms merge. A few longer-lived storms will persist at least into northern NE where the air mass will have time to recover from possible early day storms. ...NE into KS... Storms may be ongoing early in the day from central NE into northeast KS, on the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Despite the time of day, this activity may be severe with damaging winds or isolated hail. South of this activity, heating will lead to strong destabilization, and may sustain any ongoing storms or support new development along outflow boundaries. The deeply mixed boundary layer along with steep lapse rates aloft will support propagating storms producing severe outflow winds, especially on the nose of the steeper low-level lapse rates into central and east-central KS. ...Eastern OH into western PA and NY... An upper level trough will move quickly east from the OH Valley into the Northeast, with modest mid to upper-level westerlies and cooling aloft. Mid 60s F dewpoints will exist from OH into PA with a weak surface low over OH, aiding both lift and instability. Scattered storms are likely to form over OH near the low and will spread into PA and NY. Although low-level winds will be weak, they will veer with height, and this may support an isolated supercell with a brief/weak tornado not out of the question. Otherwise, marginal wind and hail will be possible. ...Eastern Carolinas... A surface trough will develop during the day with westerly winds aloft and strong heating. MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg appears possible with 70s F dewpoints. Although winds below 500 mb will generally be less than 20 kt, they will veer with height, which may aid updraft propagation, while good mid to upper-level winds elongate the hodographs and help sustain the storms. Scattered storms producing locally strong wind gusts or marginal hail are expected by early afternoon, with a broken line of storms approaching the coast by evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% SIG - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/14/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and northern Plains on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are possible from Ohio into western Pennsylvania and New York, and over the eastern Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Moderately strong mid to high-level flow will persist from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Northeast, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. One wave will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast, with 35 kt midlevel winds increasing to over 50 kt at 300 mb. This wave will interact with a weak surface low and mid 60s F dewpoints, supporting a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude progressive shortwave trough will dive southeast out of MT and across the northern Plains, providing ample deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates to support severe storms near a cold front moving southeastward across the Dakotas. Another area of severe weather is possible from NE into KS with a leading wave, in association with possible early-day storms and northeast of a surface low over southwest KS. ...Black Hills into central SD and northern NE... Ample heating will occur ahead of an approaching cold front with dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 50s F. Deep-layer shear profiles will be strong for this time of year, with elongated straight-line hodographs developing. Storms may develop by 18Z as capping will be eroded with little heating. Scattered severe storms capable of large hail are expected, and a wind threat may develop along the front as storms merge. A few longer-lived storms will persist at least into northern NE where the air mass will have time to recover from possible early day storms. ...NE into KS... Storms may be ongoing early in the day from central NE into northeast KS, on the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. Despite the time of day, this activity may be severe with damaging winds or isolated hail. South of this activity, heating will lead to strong destabilization, and may sustain any ongoing storms or support new development along outflow boundaries. The deeply mixed boundary layer along with steep lapse rates aloft will support propagating storms producing severe outflow winds, especially on the nose of the steeper low-level lapse rates into central and east-central KS. ...Eastern OH into western PA and NY... An upper level trough will move quickly east from the OH Valley into the Northeast, with modest mid to upper-level westerlies and cooling aloft. Mid 60s F dewpoints will exist from OH into PA with a weak surface low over OH, aiding both lift and instability. Scattered storms are likely to form over OH near the low and will spread into PA and NY. Although low-level winds will be weak, they will veer with height, and this may support an isolated supercell with a brief/weak tornado not out of the question. Otherwise, marginal wind and hail will be possible. ...Eastern Carolinas... A surface trough will develop during the day with westerly winds aloft and strong heating. MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg appears possible with 70s F dewpoints. Although winds below 500 mb will generally be less than 20 kt, they will veer with height, which may aid updraft propagation, while good mid to upper-level winds elongate the hodographs and help sustain the storms. Scattered storms producing locally strong wind gusts or marginal hail are expected by early afternoon, with a broken line of storms approaching the coast by evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% SIG - Slight ..Jewell.. 08/14/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a couple of shortwaves migrate through the area. Farther south, weak ridging will remain in place across the Southwest. In the East, broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place. ...Eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming... Surface flow in this region will be slightly stronger compared to prior days owing to 1) stronger mid-level flow (40-50 kts) and 2) vertical mixing processes. This stronger (15-25 mph) surface flow will occur within areas of dry fuels, with RH values flirting with critical thresholds (around 15% or so) for a few hours in the afternoon/early evening. These conditions are consistent with elevated fire weather, though locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out especially in terrain-favored areas that typically experience locally stronger wind speeds. ..Cook.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a couple of shortwaves migrate through the area. Farther south, weak ridging will remain in place across the Southwest. In the East, broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place. ...Eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming... Surface flow in this region will be slightly stronger compared to prior days owing to 1) stronger mid-level flow (40-50 kts) and 2) vertical mixing processes. This stronger (15-25 mph) surface flow will occur within areas of dry fuels, with RH values flirting with critical thresholds (around 15% or so) for a few hours in the afternoon/early evening. These conditions are consistent with elevated fire weather, though locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out especially in terrain-favored areas that typically experience locally stronger wind speeds. ..Cook.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a couple of shortwaves migrate through the area. Farther south, weak ridging will remain in place across the Southwest. In the East, broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place. ...Eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming... Surface flow in this region will be slightly stronger compared to prior days owing to 1) stronger mid-level flow (40-50 kts) and 2) vertical mixing processes. This stronger (15-25 mph) surface flow will occur within areas of dry fuels, with RH values flirting with critical thresholds (around 15% or so) for a few hours in the afternoon/early evening. These conditions are consistent with elevated fire weather, though locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out especially in terrain-favored areas that typically experience locally stronger wind speeds. ..Cook.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and damaging winds are expected across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms may be noted across the Gulf Coast to the southern Middle Atlantic. ...Central High Plains... Large-scale pattern is forecast to change little across the western US through the day1 period. Broad upper ridging will hold across the Great Basin with seasonally strong mid-level flow extending from WA/OR, across the northern Rockies into the central Plains. It's not entirely clear whether a weak disturbance will affect the High Plains later today, however steep mid-level lapse rates persist across this region within broad northwesterly flow regime. Strong diurnal heating will once again contribute to significant buoyancy in the lee of the Rockies prior to convective initiation. In the absence of a meaningful short-wave trough, it appears surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development. It appears thunderstorms should develop by 21-22z as convective temperatures are breached. Latest CAMs support this scenario with scattered convection developing by late afternoon from southeast MT-eastern WY/CO. Forecast soundings across this region strongly favor supercells and steep lapse rates/bulk shear appear supportive of very large hail. Local hail algorithm generates hail in excess of 2" with robust convection across the High Plains again this afternoon. Given the stronger shear expected later today, compared to Tuesday, there is reason to believe supercells may maintain their character a bit longer than yesterday. For these reasons have increased severe probabilities to account for a potentially more widespread severe event from eastern WY into eastern CO/northwest KS. While initial activity should prove productive in generating hail, damaging winds will become more common if an MCS evolves later in the evening along nose of LLJ. ...Gulf States/Southeast-Middle Atlantic Coast... Weak surface boundary will sag southeast during the day, extending from VA-Carolinas-central Gulf States by 18z. This boundary will serve as the focus for convection within a high-PW air mass characterized by generally weak shear. While lapse rates are not particularly steep, Isolated damaging winds could be noted with short-lived wet micro bursts. ..Darrow/Cook.. 08/14/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and damaging winds are expected across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms may be noted across the Gulf Coast to the southern Middle Atlantic. ...Central High Plains... Large-scale pattern is forecast to change little across the western US through the day1 period. Broad upper ridging will hold across the Great Basin with seasonally strong mid-level flow extending from WA/OR, across the northern Rockies into the central Plains. It's not entirely clear whether a weak disturbance will affect the High Plains later today, however steep mid-level lapse rates persist across this region within broad northwesterly flow regime. Strong diurnal heating will once again contribute to significant buoyancy in the lee of the Rockies prior to convective initiation. In the absence of a meaningful short-wave trough, it appears surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development. It appears thunderstorms should develop by 21-22z as convective temperatures are breached. Latest CAMs support this scenario with scattered convection developing by late afternoon from southeast MT-eastern WY/CO. Forecast soundings across this region strongly favor supercells and steep lapse rates/bulk shear appear supportive of very large hail. Local hail algorithm generates hail in excess of 2" with robust convection across the High Plains again this afternoon. Given the stronger shear expected later today, compared to Tuesday, there is reason to believe supercells may maintain their character a bit longer than yesterday. For these reasons have increased severe probabilities to account for a potentially more widespread severe event from eastern WY into eastern CO/northwest KS. While initial activity should prove productive in generating hail, damaging winds will become more common if an MCS evolves later in the evening along nose of LLJ. ...Gulf States/Southeast-Middle Atlantic Coast... Weak surface boundary will sag southeast during the day, extending from VA-Carolinas-central Gulf States by 18z. This boundary will serve as the focus for convection within a high-PW air mass characterized by generally weak shear. While lapse rates are not particularly steep, Isolated damaging winds could be noted with short-lived wet micro bursts. ..Darrow/Cook.. 08/14/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and damaging winds are expected across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms may be noted across the Gulf Coast to the southern Middle Atlantic. ...Central High Plains... Large-scale pattern is forecast to change little across the western US through the day1 period. Broad upper ridging will hold across the Great Basin with seasonally strong mid-level flow extending from WA/OR, across the northern Rockies into the central Plains. It's not entirely clear whether a weak disturbance will affect the High Plains later today, however steep mid-level lapse rates persist across this region within broad northwesterly flow regime. Strong diurnal heating will once again contribute to significant buoyancy in the lee of the Rockies prior to convective initiation. In the absence of a meaningful short-wave trough, it appears surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development. It appears thunderstorms should develop by 21-22z as convective temperatures are breached. Latest CAMs support this scenario with scattered convection developing by late afternoon from southeast MT-eastern WY/CO. Forecast soundings across this region strongly favor supercells and steep lapse rates/bulk shear appear supportive of very large hail. Local hail algorithm generates hail in excess of 2" with robust convection across the High Plains again this afternoon. Given the stronger shear expected later today, compared to Tuesday, there is reason to believe supercells may maintain their character a bit longer than yesterday. For these reasons have increased severe probabilities to account for a potentially more widespread severe event from eastern WY into eastern CO/northwest KS. While initial activity should prove productive in generating hail, damaging winds will become more common if an MCS evolves later in the evening along nose of LLJ. ...Gulf States/Southeast-Middle Atlantic Coast... Weak surface boundary will sag southeast during the day, extending from VA-Carolinas-central Gulf States by 18z. This boundary will serve as the focus for convection within a high-PW air mass characterized by generally weak shear. While lapse rates are not particularly steep, Isolated damaging winds could be noted with short-lived wet micro bursts. ..Darrow/Cook.. 08/14/2019 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will gradually amplify across the CONUS today as a ridge maintains its strength across the Southwest and a broad, low-amplitude trough deepens across the East. This pattern will maintain a belt of enhanced mid-level flow from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies and southeastward through the Midwest. Most of this flow will be displaced from areas of dry fuels across the West, with localized exceptions being portions of eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming. Briefly elevated fire weather can be expected in these areas as breezy (15 mph) and dry (15-25% RH) conditions develop during peak heating hours. These conditions are expected to be too brief to necessitate highlights for this outlook period. Elsewhere, relatively weak wind speeds across dry fuels will preclude the need for any highlights today. ..Cook.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will gradually amplify across the CONUS today as a ridge maintains its strength across the Southwest and a broad, low-amplitude trough deepens across the East. This pattern will maintain a belt of enhanced mid-level flow from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies and southeastward through the Midwest. Most of this flow will be displaced from areas of dry fuels across the West, with localized exceptions being portions of eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming. Briefly elevated fire weather can be expected in these areas as breezy (15 mph) and dry (15-25% RH) conditions develop during peak heating hours. These conditions are expected to be too brief to necessitate highlights for this outlook period. Elsewhere, relatively weak wind speeds across dry fuels will preclude the need for any highlights today. ..Cook.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will gradually amplify across the CONUS today as a ridge maintains its strength across the Southwest and a broad, low-amplitude trough deepens across the East. This pattern will maintain a belt of enhanced mid-level flow from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies and southeastward through the Midwest. Most of this flow will be displaced from areas of dry fuels across the West, with localized exceptions being portions of eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming. Briefly elevated fire weather can be expected in these areas as breezy (15 mph) and dry (15-25% RH) conditions develop during peak heating hours. These conditions are expected to be too brief to necessitate highlights for this outlook period. Elsewhere, relatively weak wind speeds across dry fuels will preclude the need for any highlights today. ..Cook.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

140
ABPZ20 KNHC 140517
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated low pressure system located more than 1200 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
some development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form later this week before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
at around 10 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Brazos County commissioners approved a 90-day burn ban prohibiting all outdoor burning effective Aug. 13. The neighboring counties of Milam and Robertson also adopted burn bans recently. Statewide, 104 Texas counties banned outdoor burning, due to dry conditions. Bryan-College Station Eagle (Texas), Aug. 13, 2019

WW 0580 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E P28 TO 30 WSW ICT. ..SMITH..08/14/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC079-173-191-140540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARVEY SEDGWICK SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 580 SEVERE TSTM KS 132310Z - 140700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 580 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and central Kansas * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 610 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 90 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm complex, now becoming well-organized over northwestern Kansas with a history of measured severe wind, should sweep southeastward across the watch area through this evening. The main concern will be severe gusts, though isolated large hail is possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles either side of a line from 55 miles northwest of Liberal KS to 50 miles southeast of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 577...WW 578...WW 579... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW OKC TO 40 ESE P28. ..SMITH..08/14/19 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC047-053-071-073-083-103-140540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN NOBLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM OK 140155Z - 140700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-central and northwestern Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 855 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Though likely past peak by then, a bowing complex of thunderstorms with a substantial pressure/thermal perturbations in Kansas still may be producing severe gusts as it enters northern Oklahoma. This activity should weaken as it moves into a progressively more-stable low- and middle-level air mass toward the southern fringe of the watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of Alva OK to 50 miles south southwest of Enid OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32040. ...Edwards Read more