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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms should occur Monday across parts of the Great Lakes into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and central Plains. Damaging wind gusts should be the main threat, with some hail also possible. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Central Plains... An upper trough will continue to progress eastward across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, OH Valley, and mid MS Valley on Monday. At the surface, the primary low is forecast to develop eastward across central/eastern Canada through the period, with a trailing cold front expected to sweep east-southeastward from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The stronger mid-level winds associated with the upper trough are forecast to lag behind the cold front to some extent. Even so, upper 60s to at least low 70s surface dewpoints should be in place ahead of the front. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability arcing from parts of Lower MI into the Midwest, mid MS Valley, and KS by Monday afternoon. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates should also be present across parts of KS/MO into IL, and locally very strong instability, with MLCAPE around 3500-4500 J/kg, may develop in a narrow corridor across these regions along and just ahead of the cold front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution across the Great Lakes into the Midwest and OH Valley Monday afternoon and evening. The potential for a decaying cluster of thunderstorms related to overnight convection across the Upper Midwest remains apparent in some guidance. If this cluster can maintain itself through the morning, it may shunt greater instability and thunderstorm potential farther south ahead of the front into the OH and mid MS Valleys. Even though these regions will generally be on the southeastern extent of appreciable mid-level flow, loosely organized clusters of convection may still be capable of producing isolated damaging winds as low-level lapse rates become steepened. Have expanded the Marginal Risk to account for this potential. Otherwise, it appears probable that more robust/organized thunderstorms will form along/near the cold front by Monday afternoon. The best combination of strong forecast instability and modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should occur across parts of the Midwest into Lower MI. 15% severe wind probabilities have been introduced across this area where the greatest concentration of thunderstorm clusters may occur based on some convection-allowing guidance. Given the potential for morning convection, some adjustments to the Slight Risk may be needed as mesoscale details and model/convective trends dictate. ..Gleason.. 08/28/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur just ahead of a cold front in southern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Based on the current position of the front, the elevated area has been adjusted. RH is not likely to fall below critical thresholds for very long within the terrain along the Idaho/Wyoming border. Highlights have been removed from those areas. Locally critical conditions are most likely, for brief periods, within the Snake River Plain and in the lee of the Laramie Range. ..Wendt.. 08/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, promoting downslope flow along the higher terrain of the central/northern Rockies amid a dry boundary layer. In the Plains states, strong surface lee troughing will occur, with a surface cold front poised to sweep across the central and northern High Plains. The net result will be widespread coverage of either dry or windy conditions across much of the north-central CONUS in the post-cold-frontal environment. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that both dry and windy surface conditions will overlap within a narrow corridor from the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho to the Nebraska Sandhills, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MN/WESTERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL/SOUTHEASTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should affect much of Minnesota into western Wisconsin late this afternoon into early tonight, with large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and a couple of tornadoes possible. Damaging winds may also occur this afternoon from northern Illinois into southeastern Wisconsin. ...MN and vicinity this afternoon into early tonight... A well-defined midlevel trough will move eastward from western ND as of mid morning to northwestern MN tonight, and will be preceded by a weakening MCV moving from eastern ND to northwestern MN today. The primary associated surface cyclone will progress eastward across SK/MB, as a trailing cold front/trough likewise moves eastward across the Dakotas to the MN border by this evening. Ahead of the front/trough, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km sampled in 12z soundings will act to cap a gradually moistening boundary layer (mid-upper 60s dewpoints northern MN to low 70s across southern MN by afternoon), and will allow MLCAPE to increase to near 3000 J/kg. Stratus under the cap and lingering convection in southeastern ND will tend to slow surface heating, but ascent along the boundary will support weakening of convective inhibition and thunderstorm development 21-23z across west central and northwest MN. Storms will then spread eastward through late evening and develop southward toward central MN, with greater uncertainty regarding storm coverage with southward extent into IA/eastern NE this evening. Mixed convective modes are expected along and ahead of the surface front/trough, with a few semi-discrete cells initially, and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments expected by this evening. Vertical shear will become sufficient for supercells as hodographs lengthen and clockwise curvature increases some in the low levels, as reflected by effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt and effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2. The steep midlevel lapse rates/large CAPE and sufficiently long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (2-2.5 inch diameter) with the more discrete supercells initially, and the threat will transition more to damaging winds of 60-70 mph with upscale growth of convection. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with the initial supercells, and with embedded circulations in line segments. ...Northern IL/southeastern WI this afternoon/evening... An MCV will continue to move northeastward from southeastern IA toward southeastern WI through this evening. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but surface heating in cloud breaks ahead of the MCV will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg), and thunderstorm development will be possible by early-mid afternoon near the MS River. A mix of clusters and embedded rotating storms will be possible given modest enhancement of low-level shear ahead of the MCV (effective SRH in excess of 100 m2/s2), with the attendant threat of isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two. ..Thompson/Dean.. 08/28/2022 Read more

A Delaware gardener described the first layer of soil as being hard like cement when trying to plant shrubs amid a drought. A grape grower noted that the unusually dry August makes for a good vintage. WBOC-TV 16 Salisbury (Md.), Aug 25, 2022

Heat and drought drove the flash drought that seared the state in July. Farm ponds evaporated, soil dried and baked, and vegetation went dormant or died, leaving ranchers short on forage. Cattle were sold. The heat depressed pollen production, leading to a lot of sterile corn. “As far as heat and drought go, it’s the worst summer since 2011 and 2012,” said State Climatologist Gary McManus with the Oklahoma Climatological Survey. “Overall, when it goes so long without rain and it’s so hot, it just beats you down.” Oklahoma City Journal Record (Okla.), Aug 23, 2022

Apples are smaller in Niagara County due to the lack of rain. But, on the upside, apples should be sweeter. WGRZ-TV Channel 2 (Buffalo, N.Y.), Aug 23, 2022

Heat and drought are taking a toll on Texas’ peanuts, particularly in West Texas. Subsoil moisture was negligible to begin with, crops were not doing well, and irrigation was not able to keep up with water demand. The yield loss could reach 45% to 50%, according to the executive director of the Texas Peanut Producers Board. A farmer expects a yield reduction of about 30%. Texas Farm Bureau (Waco, Texas), Aug 22, 2022

Texas ranchers continued to send cattle to slaughter, which will drive up beef prices in the long term as the herd shrinks. Cattle were losing weight as pastures were dry, depriving the animals of an important food source. Supplementing livestock’s diet with hay and feed when they should be grazing on green grass is costly. Lots of cattle were being sold at auction in Crockett in East Texas. About 75% of the cows sold at auction the past two months have been sent to the slaughterhouse, according to a co-owner of the auction, up from 30% to 40% in normal years. Reuters (New York), Aug 24, 2022 Texas ranchers are making difficult decisions as drought conditions force them to cull cattle herds due to lack of forage. Choices must be made whether to continue feeding by finding hay or seek other economical feed options, or simply pare down the herd. Prices for supplemental feed like range cubes and hay have continued to rise, according to AgriLife Extension reports. Range cubes rose to $400 per ton near College Station in recent weeks. Round bales cost $75-$80. In recent weeks, bales in drier areas of the state have brought $80-plus. Hay production in East Texas was only 25% to 50% of normal. Water availability could become a worry in the next two months. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 20, 2022

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 27 17:58:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 27 17:58:02 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 08/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains while upper ridging gradually builds over the Interior West tomorrow/Sunday. Despite the departing upper trough, up to 40 kts of 500 mb flow should still overspread a dry boundary layer across parts of the central into northern Rockies by afternoon peak heating. At least locally Elevated surface conditions should develop across the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho into eastern Wyoming, with windy, occasionally dry conditions also likely across Montana into the northern High Plains. Spotty fuel receptiveness or the lack of widespread overlapping favorable winds/RH suggest that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur late Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Severe/damaging wind gusts and large hail should be the main threats, but a tornado or two also appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A well-defined shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday. A 40-50 kt west-southwesterly jet will accompany this feature and overspread parts of the Upper Midwest through Sunday evening. The primary surface low should remain in central Canada, with a secondary low forecast to shift eastward across SD and western MN through the day. A cold front will sweep eastward across the Upper Midwest through the period. This front will serve as a focus for lift and related severe convective potential. A seasonably moist low-level airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s. Diurnal heating of this airmass, along with the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, should encourage the development of moderate to strong instability ahead of the front across MN/IA and eastern NE. The strongest instability should be present across southern/central MN and vicinity where better daytime heating is forecast. A low-level cap should inhibit convective development through much of the afternoon. But, robust thunderstorms should eventually initiate along/near the eastward-sweeping cold front across western/central MN by late Sunday afternoon. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support updraft organization, with a mix of supercells and multicells possible initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging wind gusts may occur with this activity. A fairly quick transition to one or more bowing clusters should occur late Sunday afternoon/evening into eastern MN and western WI, with the wind threat becoming the primary severe concern. A tornado or two also appear possible through the early evening, as 0-1 km SRH appears sufficient for some low-level rotation with both cells and embedded QLCS circulations. The severe threat ahead of cold front appears a bit more uncertain and conditional with southward extent into IA and eastern NE. The better large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough will remain mostly to the north of these areas. Still, any thunderstorms that can form across this region Sunday afternoon/evening could become severe, with both an isolated large hail and damaging wind threat. Given the continued uncertainty with overall thunderstorm coverage across these areas, have opted to just expand the Marginal Risk for now, and keep greater severe probabilities focused in MN and western WI where convective coverage appears greater. ..Gleason.. 08/27/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF IA/MN/WI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears most concentrated today over parts of Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. ...IA/MN/WI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the central NE/KS border will continue moving northeastward to western IA by this evening and the upper MS Valley overnight. Clouds and ongoing convection within a deep moisture plume over the central Plains will likewise spread northeastward through the day. Surface heating to the east of the thicker cloud band and relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, and the likelihood of additional thunderstorm development this afternoon in the zone of differential heating from IA into southern MN (along and south of a warm front). Vertical shear profiles are forecast to be a bit disjointed with substantially backed/weaker flow in the mid levels across IA this afternoon. Low-level shear/clockwise hodograph curvature will be larger this afternoon/evening closer to the warm front across southeast MN/western WI, with a similar weakness in the midlevel flow. Thus, the environment favors a mixed/messy storm mode with clusters and some transient rotating updrafts, with a primary threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail given the moderately large buoyancy/precipitation loading and sufficiently steep low-midlevel lapse rates (DCAPE near 1000 J/kg). ...TX Panhandle into KS this afternoon/evening... Along the southern fringe of the residual monsoonal moisture plume and the ejecting midlevel trough over northern KS, differential heating and weak convergence along a lee trough will support scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but surface heating/mixing will steepen low-level lapse rates, and westerly flow aloft will contribute to modest effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt. Somewhat organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts and marginally severe hail from mid afternoon into this evening. ...Southern MT and vicinity this afternoon/evening... Within the primary jet, an embedded speed max/shortwave trough over southern BC and WA will progress eastward to MT later this afternoon into tonight. An associated cold front will move into central MT by this evening, with strong surface heating and deep mixing in advance of the front. Some high-based convection is expected to form over the higher terrain of southern MT later this afternoon, and storms will spread eastward into this evening. Though low-level moisture and buoyancy will be limited, deep inverted-v profiles will support isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Karstens.. 08/27/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... No significant changes have been made to the Elevated and Critical areas. Critical conditions still appear most likely this afternoon from northeast NV/northwest UT into southern ID, with elevated to locally critical conditions surrounding this area from the northern Sierras into the north-central High Plains. Stronger winds are already noted across parts of southern ID this morning, while winds should increase elsewhere across the region in conjunction with continued heating/mixing and RH reductions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 08/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will progress across the northwestern U.S. today, promoting scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Rockies and dry/windy conditions across the northern Great Basin. Critically dry and windy surface conditions are most likely across northeast Nevada into southeast Idaho by late afternoon, though locally Critical conditions are also possible anywhere within the broader Elevated highlights, spanning from the northern Sierra to the northern High Plains. Elevated and Critical highlights have been withheld across southern into central Montana since recent rainfall has likely dampened fuels over several locales. The best chance for a couple of dry strikes as well as gusty, erratic thunderstorm winds would also be in central into southern Montana by late afternoon. Again, the lack of more widespread receptive fuels precludes dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

 St John, WA -  This is the final news release for the Wagner Road Fire. The Wagner Road Fire is located 12 miles west of St. John, WA. This fire started on Thursday, August 18th and has burned approximately 7,381 acres of rangeland, stubble and standing wheat.  

The Bean Complex fires began from lightning between June 19 and June 23, 2022. The fires are burning on lands managed by Doyon Ltd., the Bureau of Land Management, and the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, generally along the Tanana River Valley west of Fairbanks extending to the Cosna River south of Manley Hot Springs. Fire protection is under the BLM Alaska Fire Service. This complex is comprised of seven fires. The fire numbers and names are:310 Tanana River312 Bitzshitini315 Chitanana327 Hutlinana557 Rock561 Elephant564 Cosna  All of these fires are in patrol monitor status. Recent rains, lower temperatures, and higher humidity have stopped fire

The Dragon Fire, located on the North Rim of Grand Canyon National Park began July 17, 2022. The lightning-caused fire is being closely monitored and allowed to fulfill its natural role in a fire-dependent ecosystem.  Wildfire is a natural process within the fire adapted ecosystem on the North Rim. By allowing the Dragon Fire to carry out this natural process, a variety of resource objectives will be met including reduction of hazardous fuels, promoting forest regeneration, improving wildlife habitat, and restoring a more open forest understory. Please visit: https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/management/firemanagement.htm for additional information about wildland fire at Grand Canyon National

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday across the portions of the southern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Occasional hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude upper trough should advance east-northeastward across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest into Canada on Saturday. A separate shortwave trough over the central Plains should likewise develop northeastward into parts of the Upper Midwest through Saturday evening. A seasonably moist low-level airmass should be in place ahead of both of these features, with a weak front/surface trough across the Plains likely delimiting the western extent of any appreciable severe risk. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest, especially MN and vicinity, still appears rather uncertain and conditional. The already modest large-scale ascent associated with the northern shortwave trough should be shifting into Canada through the day, leaving nebulous/unfocused forcing mechanisms for convective initiation. This uncertainty is evident in latest CAM guidance, which shows varying solutions regarding thunderstorm coverage and intensity across MN/WI through Saturday evening. Still, the presence of fairly steep mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating should lead to a narrow corridor of at least moderate instability developing by late Saturday afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop across this region despite lingering weak convective inhibition would be capable of producing both isolated large hail and damaging winds, as effective bulk shear around 35 kt promotes some updraft organization. A better convective signal exists in guidance across IA and vicinity in association with the southern shortwave trough. Similar to locations farther north, moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should support an isolated hail/wind threat with any robust thunderstorms that can develop across the warm sector Saturday afternoon and evening. Across the southern/central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along and east of a weak surface front/trough through Saturday afternoon. A deeply mixed boundary layer, with inverted-v type forecast soundings, should support some threat for isolated severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear this far south appears marginal for any more than loose convective organization, but some hail may occur with initially more cellular convection before clustering occurs. ...Montana... A pronounced upper trough with attendant strong mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies on Saturday. Very modest low-level moisture should be in place across MT ahead of this feature. While high-based thunderstorms should develop off the higher terrain and advance eastward across central/eastern MT through Saturday evening, it currently appears that instability will remain quite limited. Accordingly, have opted to not include low severe wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/26/2022 Read more