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Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 854 WTPZ41 KNHC 021447 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 While quite broad, Javier continues to improve in organization. Deep convection has been forming near the center of the circulation with cold cloud tops below -80 degrees C. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt to represent a blend of the Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB. The storm is expected to be over warm waters (greater than 26 degrees C) for another 24 hours. Global models also indicate atmospheric conditions should be conducive for additional strengthening, with weak vertical wind shear and ample environmental moisture. But due to Javier's elongated structure, the official forecast calls for the system to only slightly intensify in the next day. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and enters a drier, more stable environment. Javier is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. The storm is moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north. In the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to build westward and turn Javier toward the west-northwest and west. The official forecast is again adjusted to the right of the previous forecast towards the multi-model consensus aids. However, tropical-storm-force winds generated by the storm are predicted to remain offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur. Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 20.7N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 087 FOPZ11 KNHC 021447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 20(20) 16(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 25N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021446 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 ...JAVIER GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 112.2W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 112.2 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and an increase in forward speed is expected through early Saturday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Saturday before Javier begins to weaken on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 4 inches across portions of Baja California Sur through this weekend. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

...JAVIER GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 2 the center of Javier was located near 20.7, -112.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Above normal rainfall led the S.C. Drought Response Committee to ease the drought status for 10 counties on the coastal plain of South Carolina. Fourteen counties are still in incipient drought. Lancaster was upgraded to incipient and three counties -- Chester, Union and York -- were upgraded to moderate. As designated by the South Carolina Drought Response Act, incipient is the first level of drought followed by moderate, severe and extreme. The decision to upgrade York, Chester and Union counties was primarily based on very low rainfall totals over the past 60 days. Cotton from these counties will not be harvested. Orangeburg Times and Democrat (S.C.), Sept 1, 2022

Minnesota oak trees stressed by recent drought have shown signs of infestation by two lined chestnut borer. Oak tree deaths are expected to continue for years. Drought recovery for trees can also take years, but watering your trees can make them more resilient. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (St. Paul, Minn.), Sept 1, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 1 17:49:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 1 17:49:01 UTC 2022.

241
ABPZ20 KNHC 011738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 1 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of West-Central Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 300 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula are gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is forecast to
form later today or tonight while moving northwestward at about 10
mph, likely remaining a couple of hundred miles off the western
coast of Baja California Sur. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening from portions of the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, and also across central and southern Arizona. Strong wind gusts and isolated hail will be the main hazards with these storms. ...Upper Midwest into the central Great Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across Ontario and Quebec on Friday, with the trailing part of this trough moving across the upper Great Lakes region. A weaker midlevel trough will persist to the southwest across the mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains. A cold front will move across the upper Midwest and the northern/central Plains. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop along and ahead of the front by Friday afternoon. A tendency for the strongest large-scale ascent to stay north of the international border renders timing/coverage of storm initiation uncertain, but isolated development appears possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central Plains by late afternoon/early evening. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will support multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with an attendant risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Northerly midlevel flow may support one or more southward-moving clusters across the Plains during the mid/late evening, though the southwestward extent of any severe threat remains uncertain at this time. ...Arizona... An increase in low-level moisture is expected across parts of Arizona on Friday, which will aid in moderate diurnal destabilization from the Mogollon Rim into the lower deserts, and a likely increase in storm coverage (compared to previous days) from late afternoon into the evening. Initial semi-discrete development across the higher terrain may pose a threat of isolated strong wind gusts and hail. Modestly enhanced midlevel easterly flow along the southern periphery of an upper ridge will support the potential for outflow-driven clusters to spread into the lower deserts, posing a threat of isolated severe gusts Friday evening. ..Dean.. 09/01/2022 Read more

Lower flows and forecasted warmer water temperatures prompted a full fishing closure on the entire Beaverhead River from its confluence with the Big Hole River to Clark Canyon Dam south of Dillon. The closure took effect just after midnight on Sept. 1 and will remain in effect until water temperatures cool, and officials find that the fish are less stressed. Bozeman Daily Chronicle (Mont.), Aug 31, 2022

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Tropical moisture, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and PW values greater than 2 inches, will persist across the Southeast. Primarily diurnal convection will be focused across south GA/north FL by a weak midlevel low and local sea breeze/differential heating zones. Farther west into the southern Plains, similar moisture exists with embedded/weak midlevel troughs over southwest OK and northern Mexico. The southwest OK wave will move slowly east-northeastward through tonight, in response to an upstream trough digging south-southeastward over KS. Embedded thunderstorms are expected across central OK with the ejecting wave, but lightning may be more prevalent around the northern-eastern-southern periphery of the midlevel trough, with diurnal convection in the zones of differential heating on the edge of the thicker clouds. Otherwise, a larger-scale midlevel trough will move east-southeastward over AB/SK/MB, as a smaller-scale lead wave ejects generally eastward over MT today. Low-level moisture will be limited across the northern Plains, with only a small chance for thunderstorms with the ejecting shortwave trough and a cold front this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 09/01/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains this afternoon as an upper wave translates across the region. A pair of upper troughs, noted over the northern Rockies and northwestern Canadian Prairies in morning water-vapor imagery, are expected to phase as they crest a Great Basin upper ridge. This phasing will enhance mid-level flow and shift a Canadian surface low into the Plains through the day. The passage of an associated cold front across the northern Plains, coupled with strengthening flow, will support breezy conditions over a region with receptive fuels and antecedent dry conditions. ...Montana... Latest guidance has delayed the passage of the Canadian cold front across northern/central MT until later in the afternoon/evening compared to previous model runs. While strong surface winds may be less expansive than anticipated, a deepening lee trough and strengthening zonal flow off the Rockies will foster breezy downslope winds. Temperatures in the 90s and RH minimums in the teens to 20s remain likely and will maintain the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. A wind shift to the north/northwest associated with the frontal passage is still expected later today, but may occur just after peak daytime heating during the 00-03 UTC time frame. ...Snake River Plain and Wyoming... 00 UTC soundings from BOI and RIW sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across ID and WY. Recent surface observations show overnight RH values are struggling to recover out of the 20-30% range. Such conditions are conducive for another day of deep boundary-layer mixing, which will aid in downward transfer of the strengthening mid-level flow over the region this afternoon. Sustained winds between 15-20 mph with gusts between 20-30 mph appear likely. Confidence remains high in elevated, to briefly critical, conditions through the Snake River Plain. To the east across WY, fire weather concerns are possible across much of the state, but may manifest as numerous pockets of somewhat transient elevated conditions. An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of WY that are most likely to see sustained and sufficiently widespread elevated conditions - namely in the lee of prominent ranges. Further refinement of this risk area is possible as guidance comes into better agreement over the next 12 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Hay and pasture forage losses could approach $100 million, per a report by the Fryar Risk Management Center of Excellence. At least 20 counties in Arkansas were designated disaster areas due to drought, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. About 75% of hay and other pasture fields in the state were considered to be poor or very poor condition. KFSM-TV CBS 5 Fort Smith (Ark.), Aug 31, 2022

The summer drought is likely to limit the number of New Jersey Christmas trees available and make them more expensive this coming holiday season. Young saplings and even more mature trees died over the hot, dry summer. Even trees that were watered on a Monmouth County tree farm succumbed to the harsh conditions. Asbury Park Press (N.J.), Aug 31, 2022

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 31 17:56:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1753 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Areas affected...much of central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311754Z - 312030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms. The severe threat is expected to remain relatively isolated through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an increase in convective coverage and intensity across northwest NE as a small mid-level impulse grazes the central Plains. Ahead of the storms, strong diurnal heating is contributing to surface temperatures exceeding 90 F, with a dry boundary layer growing to 600 mb and low-level lapse rates steepening past 9 C/km. As such, continued intensification of the ongoing storms amid the warm/dry low-level environment should promote enough evaporative cooling to support strong wind gusts, and a few gusts exceeding 50 kts are possible. Nonetheless, shear and upper support are expected to remain weak, so storm organization should remain fairly limited, with any severe gusts being isolated. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/31/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41170157 41940101 42210045 42549950 42609838 42359706 41709713 41249770 40849831 40549890 40449935 40480062 40500127 41170157 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Satellite-derived wind data
indicate that this system is developing a low-level circulation, and
a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so.
The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or northwestward
during the next few days, likely remaining a few hundred miles off
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by late this week. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
by early next week while the disturbance moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be relatively low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the West on Thursday, while an upper trough may amplify slightly from the central/southern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. A seasonably deep upper trough initially over New England will move northeastward away from the region through the day. In general, generally weak deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit the threat of organized convection through the period. Northerly midlevel flow across parts of the central/southern High Plains may support sufficient deep-layer shear for some modest storm organization, but uncertainty remains high regarding the extent of destabilization and coverage of storms in this area. Elsewhere, high-based convection could produce locally gusty winds across parts of the northern Plains and also across Arizona. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central/north TX into southern OK, and also across parts of the Southeast, but these storms are expected to remain relatively disorganized. ..Dean.. 08/31/2022 Read more