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...KAY PRODUCING ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENROUTE... As of 12:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 the center of Kay was located near 18.4, -110.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 06 2022 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON...CENTRAL IDAHO...WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts will be possible from eastern Oregon into central Idaho and western and central Montana, mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Interior Northwest into the northern Rockies/High Plains... A partial breakdown of the highly amplified western upper ridge is expected across the Northwest and northern Rockies on Wednesday, as a vigorous midlevel shortwave trough moves across British Columbia and Alberta through the day. Moisture will generally remain rather limited across the Northwest, but may become sufficient to support convection within a hot and well-mixed environment across the interior Northwest into parts of Montana. Very limited buoyancy will tend to limit storm intensity, but the thermodynamic environment will be quite favorable for isolated downburst winds with any sustained storms. There will also be some potential for outflows to consolidate and move east-northeastward with a threat for gusty winds, even if convection attendant to the outflow remains relatively disorganized. A Marginal Risk was added in a corridor from eastern OR through central ID into western/central MT, where there appears to be the greatest potential for possibly multiple rounds of convection with strong/locally severe gusts from late afternoon into the evening. ...Central/east TX... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move southward into parts of central/east TX on Wednesday, around the eastern periphery of the western upper ridge. While this shortwave may tend to weaken and not be ideally timed with the diurnal cycle, it may still aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. While northerly midlevel flow may support the potential for weakly organized cells/clusters, the severe potential remains uncertain, with generally weak midlevel lapse rates and low-level flow expected. Storms capable of isolated strong gusts and/or marginal hail cannot be ruled out, but confidence is too low to add probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/06/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 6 17:34:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 6 17:34:02 UTC 2022.

The Valley Fire started on August 22, 2022, at approximately 11:45 A.M in the vicinity of Pine Creek Road and Noble Canyon, north of Pine Valley off Interstate 8. The fire is held at 193 acres and is now 96% contained. Pine Creek Road is now open along with the Noble Canyon trail. Suppression repair work has been completed. The fire is in patrol and monitor status.The fire remains under

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061710
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kay, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Sep 06 2022 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... This morning's isolated severe/brief tornado potential should continue to diminish across the New Jersey coastal vicinity as MCV-related forcing for ascent and moderately strong low-level shear/SRH likewise shift eastward offshore ahead of the eastward-moving surface low. Elsewhere, a few stronger storms with gusty winds could occur this afternoon in areas such as far eastern North Carolina. However, the potential for severe-caliber storms should be tempered by weak mid-level lapse rates/vertical shear. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/06/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Sep 06 2022 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 06 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the Great Basin and northern/central Rockies today as a dominant upper high maintains hot and dry conditions across the western CONUS. Pockets of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies, but are expected to be fairly transient in nature. A more robust fire weather threat will likely emerge across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Northern Sierra Nevada/southern Cascades... An open trough moving into the northeast Pacific will bolster mid-level gradient winds across the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. This will likely coincide with peak diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing, which will aid in downward transfer of stronger gusts - especially in the lee of terrain features. Latest ensemble guidance maintains reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with gusts near 25 mph by late afternoon. Combined with afternoon RH minimums in the low teens, a few hours of sustained elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022 310 WTPZ42 KNHC 061446 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022 Satellite data indicate that Kay has been relatively steady in strength during the past several hours. A ragged eye feature has occasionally been apparent, and microwave data show that the eyewall and rainbands are most organized on the south side. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kay later today. It should be noted that Kay is a fairly large hurricane with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend outward up to 175 miles from the center. Kay is also producing a large area of high seas, with swells currently affecting portions of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Kay is moving northwestward at 13 kt and it appears to be moving along the previous forecast track. The track models have barely changed this cycle and continue to show a northwest to north-northwest motion continuing for the next few days as the hurricane moves in the flow on the western periphery of a ridge over Mexico. This should take the core of Kay very near the west-central Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday. After that time, a turn to the left is predicted as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge over the western United States. The NHC track forecast is basically the same as the previous one and lies closest to the HCCA consensus model. The hurricane is still feeling some effects from moderate northerly vertical wind shear, but the models suggest that the shear should decrease during the next day or so. The anticipated more conducive upper-level wind pattern combined with warm SSTs and a moist environment should allow Kay to strengthen during the next 36 hours, and it could become a major hurricane during that time. Thereafter, sharply cooler SSTs and drier air should end the opportunity for strengthening and induce steady weakening. Kay is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days when it is forecast to be over quite cool SSTs of 21-22 C. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance, especially during the first 48 hours. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes its closest approach to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and strong hurricane at that time. In addition, winds, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across portions of western Mexico, including the Baja California peninsula, through Thursday night. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. 3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind, surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula later this week. A tropical storm or hurricane watch could be issued for that region later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 18.0N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 19.1N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 20.7N 112.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 26.4N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 30.2N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 30.5N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 248 FOPZ12 KNHC 061445 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 16(30) 1(31) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 49(59) 2(61) X(61) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 31(62) X(62) X(62) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 7(10) 6(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 85 1(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 110W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLA SOCORRO 64 81 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA CLARION 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 34 3 14(17) 9(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 60(75) 13(88) X(88) X(88) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 18(53) X(53) X(53) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) X(29) X(29) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) 30N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 996 WTPZ22 KNHC 061445 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO SANTA ROSALIA * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 270SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 111.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.7N 112.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.4N 115.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.2N 118.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 110.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

The East Fire is currently 150 acres with 97% containment. Fire crews continue to improve containment lines and patrol for any remaining hot spots. Currently, due to the East Fire and Gulch Fire, there is no access to San Gabriel Canyon. See below for road closures. The fire danger level throughout the forest remains at “Very High,” which allows for campfires and BBQs only in designated recreation sites (campgrounds and picnic areas). With temperatures soaring through the holiday weekend, visitors can help prevent wildfires by: Please ensure that your campfires and BBQs are completely extinguished before leaving the area. Do not stop on the side of the road on or near dry grass or brush. If towing something, make sure your chains are not dragging on the pavement, as they can cause sparks that light dry grasses or brush nearby on fire. Fireworks are NEVER allowed in the Angeles National Forest or any other national forest. Closures remain in place at least through the...

The Gulch Fire is currently 113 acres in size with 95% containment. Crews continue to mop-up and patrol for any remaining hot spots during the daytime.  An excessive heat warning is in effect, which will elevate fire weather conditions on the forest with temperatures reaching into the triple digits with low humidity levels through the Labor Day weekend. Currently, due to the Gulch Fire and East Fire, there is no access to San Gabriel Canyon. See below for road closures. The fire danger level throughout the forest remains at “Very High,” which allows for campfires and BBQs only in designated recreation sites (campgrounds and picnic areas). With temperatures soaring through the holiday weekend, visitors can help prevent wildfires by: Please ensure that your campfires and BBQs are completely extinguished before leaving the area. Do not stop on the side of the road on or near dry grass or brush. If towing something, make sure your chains are not dragging on the pavement,...

 Texas A&M Forest Service was requested by Throckmorton VFD to assist on a large fire in Throckmorton County between the towns of Throckmorton and Haskell. Originally the fire was estimated to be approximately 500 acres by the fire department with extreme fire activity, due to it being late in the day, aviation resources were unable to be utilized, but ground resources began constructing containment line around the fire.Dozer and engine crews worked through the night as the fire grew to 1800 acres up to HWY 380, but did not cross, fire activity moderated through the night allowing crews to make good progress raising the containment to 40% by this morning. An additional dozer crew with two engine strike teams will be transitioning operations this morning and will continue to staff the fire through

Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER)  THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERY There are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands: -       Fire Suppression Repair -       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) -       Long-Term Recovery and Restoration o   Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts. o   Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural...

Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERY There are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands: -       Fire Suppression Repair -       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) -       Long-Term Recovery and Restoration o   Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts. o   Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural...

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 5 17:40:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 5 17:40:02 UTC 2022.

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 051732 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022 ...KAY STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENROUTE... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 106.8W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas * Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests north of the watch area in Baja California should closely monitor the progress of Kay as Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 106.8 West. Kay is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwest to north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to remain south and southwest of southwestern Mexico through tonight, then move toward the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Continued strengthening is forecast through midweek. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread up the peninsula and the Gulf of California later this week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi