Aggregator

A dry August in Michigan, notably in the North Central Lower Peninsula and Thumb, lowered the estimated yields of corn, soybeans and sugarbeets. Average corn yields were projected to be 168 bushels per acre, down from 174 last year. Soybean yields were expected to average 47 bushels per acre, down 4 bushels from 51 bushels the previous year. Anticipated sugarbeet yields of 30.8 tons per acre, compared to 37.4 ton per acres harvested in 2021. Michigan Farm News (Lansing, Mich.), Sept 14, 2022

Dry conditions in Natick over the summer may have left pumpkins a little smaller than usual. Some farmers have had to choose what crops to water, and which to leave unwatered. One farm ran out of water near the end of August and turned to city water at a cost of nearly $3,000 daily to keep watering their apples. CBS Boston (Mass.), Sept 13, 2022

Dry conditions in Natick over the summer may have left pumpkins a little smaller than usual. Some farmers have had to choose what crops to water, and which to leave unwatered. One farm ran out of water near the end of August and turned to city water at a cost of nearly $3,000 daily to keep watering their apples. CBS Boston (Mass.), Sept 13, 2022

The North Creek Fire is north of Bear Pete Mountain and has been mapped at 5 acres. It is now contained and being managed under a patrol status.No closures are in place for this

 For all emerging initial attack incidents on the Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest, please refer to this page. Any large fires will have a new "incident" page started in InciWeb and the link will appear next to the fire name and status. Carson Ranger District 05/22/2022 Kings .5 Acres Contained 05/22/202207/07/2022 Jones Creek .1 Acres Controlled 07/07/202207/12/2022 Rock near Anderson Hill, .1 Acres Controlled 07/13/2022  8/3/2022 Crystal Fire, Located near Dog Valley, 2.5 Acres Controlled 8/4/2022 8/4/2022  Monument Fire, Located near Monument Peak, .1 Acres, Controlled 8/4/20229/5/2022 Horse Coral, Horse Coral Rd, .1 Acre, Contained/Controlled 9/5/2022  Bridgeport Ranger District 6/05/2022 Hwy 88 Markleeville .16 acres Contained 06/06/20226/28/2022 Shingle Mill .1 Acres Controlled 6/28/2022 8/2/2022 Sleeping Elephant 1 Acre, Controlled 8/2/2022 8/3/2022 Sardine Fire, Located on Hwy 108 near Sardine Bridge .1 Acres.  Controlled 8/3/20228/4/2022 Upper Rosachi Fire,...

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 13 18:01:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 13 18:01:02 UTC 2022.

649
ABPZ20 KNHC 131750
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico has increased some since this morning. Although environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable, some slight additional
development is possible during the next day or so before it likely
merges with the disturbance to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico
continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.
This system is forecast to merge with the disturbance off the
southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek or possibly develop as a
separate system. Environmental conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by the middle part of the week.
Consequently, a tropical depression is likely to form toward the
end of the week while it moves slowly westward near the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown/Pasch

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula as well as over the Great Basin and central Rockies Wednesday. A few thunderstorms are also possible across the northern Plains Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Severe-thunderstorm potential is low. ...Western and central US... Broad mid-level troughing across the western US is forecast to move eastward as high pressure over the central Plains weakens and shifts south. Ahead of the trough, lee cyclogenesis is expected over the western Dakotas with broad southerly flow likely over the Plains. In the wake of the previous cold front, deep surface moisture will be slow to return. However, increasing mid-level tropical moisture associated with the western us trough will support several areas of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Great Basin and central Rockies, onto the Plains. Convective coverage is expected to remain the greatest farther west where orographic lift and mid-level moisture will be best aligned. Mid-level flow is expected to remain modest keeping vertical shear low and storm organization potential low. Across the Plains, the more limited moisture will support lesser storm coverage, with the best chances expected near the surface low across the eastern Dakotas. Here only a few storms are expected, with limited severe potential from marginal buoyancy and shear. ...Florida... South of a stalled cold front, a seasonably warm and moist airmass will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Peninsula Wednesday afternoon. In the absence of stronger forcing for ascent, primary lift for thunderstorms will be local and tied to sea-breeze interactions. A few stronger multi-cell clusters may emerge as convective outflow consolidates later in the afternoon. However, the lack of vertical shear and stronger forcing should keep any storm organization and severe potential short lived and minimal. ..Lyons/Jewell.. 09/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts, isolated hail and a brief tornado or two are possible today from eastern New York into parts of New England, mainly this afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low over Lake Erie will gradually shift east/northeast through the day into the northeastern CONUS. As this occurs, a weak surface low will undergo some deepening as it moves northeast across the New England region. A trailing cold front, analyzed in latest surface observations from central NY southward along the East Coast, will focus thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening hours. Across the western U.S., an upper-level trough over the Great Basin will phase with a shortwave disturbance moving into the Pacific Northwest. Ample moisture and lift ahead of these features will support scattered thunderstorm development across a broad swath of the inter-mountain West. A few strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with this activity, especially across portions of AZ/NM where deeper boundary-layer mixing is expected, but marginal wind profiles will limit the potential for widespread organized convection. ...New England... Thunderstorm development along the cold front is already underway at 16 UTC across parts of central NY. The 12 UTC ALB sounding sampled poor low and mid-level lapse rates, but ample moisture throughout the profile. Extensive cloud cover will likely limit the influence of daytime heating, but most model solutions suggest that only modest diurnal warming into the mid 70s is needed to support surface-based parcels with minimal inhibition and 500-1500 J/kg SBCAPE. Overall buoyancy magnitudes may be modulated by the poor mid-level lapse rates, and should generally decrease with northwestward extent away from the coast and the higher-quality moisture. The approach of the upper wave through the day will strengthen mid to upper-level winds and elongate hodographs. Nearly straight hodographs featuring effective bulk shear values near 35-45 knots will support storm organization, including the potential for supercell or two. Low-level flow is expected to remain fairly weak below 2-3 km, but may exhibit sufficient curvature to support low-level rotation and a brief/weak tornado threat. ..Moore/Hart.. 09/13/2022 Read more

THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERY   There are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands: -       Fire Suppression Repair -       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) -       Long-Term Recovery and Restoration Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts. Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System lands and...

Some Massachusetts towns, including Mansfield, Rehoboth, Westport and Wilmington, have been affected by e coli outbreaks in the drinking water. The National Center for Disease Control asserting that drought may play a role in the contamination as prolonged drought conditions can affect quantity and quality of drinking water. Wicked Local (Randolph, Mass.), Sept. 12, 2022

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 12 17:55:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 12 17:55:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the southwest of
its center. Although environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, some additional gradual development is possible during
the next day or two. The system is forecast to move little through
midweek, then merge with the disturbance to its east shortly
thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico
is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is
forecast to interact and merge with the disturbance off the
southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek, and environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
by that time. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
latter part of this week while the system moves slowly westward near
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the southwest of
its center. Although environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, some additional gradual development is possible during
the next day or two. The system is forecast to move little through
midweek, then merge with the disturbance to its east shortly
thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico
is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is
forecast to interact and merge with the disturbance off the
southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek, and environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
by that time. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
latter part of this week while the system moves slowly westward near
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and a brief weak tornado are possible across New England on Tuesday. ...Northeastern CONUS and New England... A compact upper low over the northern OH Valley and Great Lakes will transition to an open wave early Tuesday, as it is re-absorbed into stronger westerly flow over the northeastern CONUS. A moderate H5 jet along the southern periphery of the wave will spread dynamic lift eastward through much of Tuesday morning. At the surface, an occluded cyclone over the northern Great Lakes will slowly fill as a secondary surface low over southern ON/QC deepens and draws 60s and 70s F surface dewpoints northward. A cold front associated with the new surface low will strengthen as it shifts eastward, providing the main impetus for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon. With persistent lift from the upper low and jet streak overspreading the region early, widespread cloud cover and precipitation are expected Tuesday morning. Regional model soundings show deep saturated surface layers with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. Buoyancy is expected to be weak owing to widespread cloud cover and poor mid-level lapse rates, but modest destabilization (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) is still possible given the degree of low-level moistening. Deep-layer vertical shear of 40-50 kt will be favorable for organized storms with the upper jet overhead. While the strong frontal forcing will favor a more linear band of convection with northern extent, a pre-frontal supercell or two is possible across southern New England. Confidence in severe storm development is relatively low given the potential for early morning storms delaying destabilization. High-res guidance shows the most coverage of potential strong/severe storms along the cold front closer to the surface low across upstate NY, VT and NH. Here, the primary risk will be isolated damaging wind gusts given the moderate low and mid-level wind fields. Damaging gusts and a brief/weak tornado will be also be possible farther south across CT/RI/MA where greater backed surface flow may locally enhance low-level shear. However, this is conditional upon any supercells able to evolve ahead of the main cold front. ...Southwest/Great Basin/Intermountain West... The remains of Tropical Cyclone Kay will progress eastward across the Great Basin towards the northern/central Rockies as a remnant trough Tuesday. Lift and moisture attendant to this system will result in widespread thunderstorms, with the highest storm coverage anticipated over northern AZ and northwest NM. Weak buoyancy and vertical shear within the modified tropical airmass should serve to limit the overall severe potential. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 09/12/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and over portions of Arizona. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front, recently analyzed from the upper OH River Valley into the lower MS River Valley, will continue to push east into the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast Coast over the next 24 hours. Aloft, an upper trough has begun to slowly migrate east, which will resulting in modest surface pressure falls along/ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic region this evening. The eastward progression of the wave and the slight deepening of the low will result in increasing shear that may support organized convection as thunderstorms develop along and just ahead of the front. Across the Southwest, an upper low will continue to meander off the coast of southern California. A persistent influx of unseasonably high moisture into AZ will support thunderstorm development off the terrain of southern/southeast AZ. ...Mid-Atlantic... Early morning fog/low stratus is quickly mixing out across VA/MD, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s from the Carolinas into north-central MD. These temperatures are warmer than expected by most guidance by 16 UTC, suggesting that surface-based instability and low-level lapse rates may be higher/steeper than indicated by morning model runs. Despite the clearing skies, poor low and mid-level lapse rates sampled by 12 UTC soundings will likely limit overall buoyancy values to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon. Combined with increasing deep-layer shear, a few strong to severe storms are expected along the front. Semi-organized clusters and/or linear segments will pose a damaging wind threat, and any discrete cells may acquire sufficient organization to pose a hail and brief/weak tornado threat. ...Arizona... Thunderstorm development off the Mogollon Rim and the Chiricahua/Pinaleno mountains is expected by late afternoon amid a persistent influx of unseasonably high low-level moisture (dewpoint values in the upper 60s are near the 90th percentile for mid-September). Despite modest flow aloft, ample daytime heating will promote steep low-level lapse rates/deep boundary-layer mixing favorable for a few strong to severe gusts as convection propagates off the terrain. ..Moore/Hart.. 09/12/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 09/12/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022/ ...Synopsis... The northwestern periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge centered over the western states will break down in response to an eastward-advancing midlevel trough over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure will track east-northeastward from SK into ON Canada, while a trailing cold front sweeps southward across the northern Plains. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Preceding the midlevel trough over the Pacific Northwest, an embedded shortwave impulse will track northeastward across the northern Great Basin. As strengthening large-scale ascent accompanying this feature overspreads a plume of midlevel moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific, isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop. Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath the midlevel moisture will result in inverted-V thermodynamic profiles -- supporting dry thunderstorms initially. Given receptive fuels over the northern Great Basin, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible -- especially during the early stages of storm development and away from any heavier precipitation cores. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also develop with the more robust storms. ...Northern Plains... Behind the southward-advancing cold front over the northern Plains, breezy northerly surface winds near 15 mph will be possible. Those, coupled with 15-20 percent RH, will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over eastern MT, western ND, and far northwestern SD during the afternoon/early evening hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more