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No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 15 17:43:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 15 17:43:02 UTC 2022.

737
ABPZ20 KNHC 151727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form within the next few days. This disturbance is forecast to
meander off the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of this
week, and then begin to move northwestward early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located off the southern coast of Mexico continue to become better
organized. Visible satellite imagery also indicates that the
circulation has become better defined. If these trends continue, a
tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight. The
disturbance is forecast to move northwestward, possibly moving
inland along the southern coast of Mexico this weekend. Interests
in that area should monitor the progress of this system as watches
could be required for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico
later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 Updates  l Maps  l  Smoke Outlook  l  Closures  l  Road Conditions The Yeti Fire is burning on the Klamath National Forest in between the communities of Seiad and Happy Camp, California. The fire remains south of Highway 96. Fire activity is primarily minor interior smoke presence as small pockets of residual fuels are consumed.  All evacuation warnings have been lifted for the Yeti Fire.  A portion of Highway 96 is one-way controlled traffic due to the McKinney fire. Prior to traveling, please check CalTrans Road Conditions at https://roads.dot.ca.gov/ for the most current road conditions. California Interagency Incident Management Team 10 will transfer command to the Klamath National Forest Type 3 organization on Sunday August 14th at 7 AM.  For updated information on the McKinney Fire, please visit https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8287/.    

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central High Plains and central Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis... Broad/low-amplitude cyclonic flow will persist across the western and north-central U.S. Friday, while cyclonic flow also persists across the Northeast. In between, weak ridging will prevail from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. Weak short-wave disturbances/cyclonic vorticity maxima will progress east-northeastward across the Rockies and central U.S. with time, embedded within the weakly cyclonic west-southwesterlies. At the surface, high pressure will prevail over most of the eastern half of the country. Lee troughing is expected across the High Plains vicinity, with weak cyclogenesis expected across the eastern Wyoming vicinity as one of the aforementioned vorticity maxima shifts across this region during the afternoon and evening hours. ...Eastern Wyoming/northeastern Colorado east-southeastward to eastern Nebraska... As a weak lee low/trough strengthens a bit with time, the combination of increasing ascent, and afternoon heating/destabilization, should support storm development over the central High Plains. Initial convection should evolve over portions of eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado, in an isolated/cellular manner. Given low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies, shear will likely prove sufficient for multicell/local supercell organization, and attendant risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts with the stronger updrafts. As storms shift eastward with time toward lower elevations through late afternoon/early evening, greater instability anticipated with eastward extent may support upscale/linear growth. Models continue to suggest evolution of an at least loosely organized convective band, that would shift across parts of southern South Dakota and Nebraska with time. While surface wind-gust potential will likely become more hindered with time as the boundary layer cools/stabilizes through the evening, it appears at this time that potential warrants upgrade to a small SLGT risk/15% wind probability, centered from the Nebraska Panhandle into central portions of the state for the late afternoon/early-evening time period. ..Goss.. 09/15/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe-thunderstorm gusts are possible this afternoon/early evening across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... A broad but weak upper trough will persist across the Rockies and western states today, with a shortwave trough apparent on WV approaching eastern CO/western KS. This will result in relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates over much of the central and southern Plains today, along with a corridor of around 1000 J/kg of afternoon MLCAPE. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions show multiple clusters of thunderstorms from west TX northward into parts of KS/NE/SD this afternoon. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level winds, which should limit the degree of convective organization. However, steep low-level lapse rates and merging outflows will lead to localized gusty winds in the strongest clusters. ..Hart/Lyons.. 09/15/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale troughing and enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the western CONUS, while a few embedded shortwave impulses overspread the north-central Rockies. At the surface, lee troughing accompanied by a tight pressure gradient will persist over the Plains. This pattern will once again favor breezy/gusty southerly surface winds across most of the Plains, though sufficient boundary-layer moisture should limit any substantial RH reductions. Given the marginal RH and ongoing precipitation over modestly receptive fuels, Elevated highlights have been withheld despite the breezy/gusty surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

LAKEVIEW, Ore. — The Van Meter Fire is burning on Stukel Mountain, 13 miles southeast of Klamath Falls. The fire was reported on September 7, 2022, at 12:24 p.m. Current size estimate is 3,500 acres with no containment.  An Oregon Department of Forestry Incident Management Team assumed command of the fire at 6 P.M. on September 8, 2022.  Additional resources continue to arrive to support suppression operations. Firefighters have made significant progress on the fire, limiting growth with safe, aggressive firefighting.  Structural task forces are working with Klamath County Fire Department 1 and the Merrill Fire Department to provide structure protection within the fire area.  Evacuations are in place and the public is asked to stay out of the area for safety of the firefighters and to allow for suppression activities.  The Bureau of Land Management has issued a closure order for lands around the fire.   Weather:  Significant fire potential remains elevated today due to the...

The ongoing drought in Montana has reduced available supplies of water for livestock, forcing some ranchers to sell spring-born calves to market early rather than wait until October. The lighter weight of the calf will bring a lower price, but running out of water for livestock dictates what ranchers must do. Cake prices have risen $100 per ton in the past year, or approximately $200 increase over the past three years. Hay prices have also climbed from $99 to $150 over the past two years for a 950-pound alfalfa/grass mix bale. KTVQ-TV Q2 Billings (Mont.), Sept 15, 2022

As drought reduces rivers to a trickle in Massachusetts, the water quality has deteriorated, threatening aquatic wildlife. River herring have far less water to migrate between streams. Herring, already in jeopardy due to overfishing, pollution and climate change, struggle with the lower water levels and the loss of habitat. With this summer’s drought, some Charles River tributaries have reached record low water levels while others have run dry. The Boston Globe (Mass.), Sept 15, 2022

Because of minimal fire activity, there will no longer be any additional updates to InciWeb, unless fire conditions change. The Crockets Knob Fire was transferred to a local Type 4 IC at 1800 on Thursday, September 15th. The Crockets Knob Fire was reported on the morning of August 22, 2022, after significant lightning occurred across the Malheur National Forest. The initial report was approximately 15 acres burning in brush, timber and slash within the 1996 Summit Fire scar. Numerous air and ground fire resources responded to suppress the fire. Gusty winds and steep, rugged terrain resulted in increased fire behavior and limited access for crews. Overnight on August 23rd and into the early hours of August 24th, east winds pushed the fire over constructed containment lines, and the fire grew to 225 acres. The afternoon of August 25th brought considerable fire growth to the south/southeast, increasing its footprint from 225 acres to 1,000 acres. Over the next several days the fire...

10SEPT22-Fire personnel took advantage of favorable weather conditions on 9/9 and 9/10 to proactively burn approximately 20 acres to increase the probability of keeping the fire in the Middle Fork of Warm Springs drainage.  This last week the entire fire area had been under very high temperatures, with very low relative humidity combined with days of strong winds.  While the fire did not grow much during that very warm and dry weather, the growth that did occur happened in a key location in the bottom of the Middle Fork drainage.  The fire moved into a position where uphill fire spread combined with upslope winds, could potentially send embers across the Gravelly Range Road (the eastern containment feature) and start spot-fires.  The weather conditions during the burning on 9/9 and 9/10 were much cooler with higher relative humidity, and had winds that pushed embers and smoke back into the already burned area and away from any containment features or values at risk. The fire...

Conifer stands in some central New Mexico forests were losing their needles, due to an insect outbreak. Douglas fir, white fir and even some ponderosa pine trees in the Cibola National Forest were turning brown due to the larvae of the tussock moth feeding on last year’s needles. The worry is that the defoliation weakens the trees and will make them vulnerable to later attacks by bark beetles that may kill the tops of trees or even entire trees. The Associated Press (New York), Sept. 14, 2022

774
ABPZ20 KNHC 141725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
A low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms,
mainly to the west of its center of circulation. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days while meandering southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a
trough of low pressure. Development of this system is possible
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
before reaching the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico, and
possibly moving inland, over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 14 17:59:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 14 17:59:02 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing and moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist over the western CONUS, supporting the maintenance of a surface lee trough over the Plains. Breezy southerly surface winds will continue to affect the central and southern Plains owing to a tight pressure gradient peripheral to the lee trough, though sufficient boundary-layer moisture and cloud coverage should temper RH reductions. The marginal RH and continued shower/thunderstorm development should generally limit fire-weather concerns despite the breezy/gusty surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered high-based storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible from the Texas Panhandle, to central Kansas, and into central/eastern Nebraska Thursday. ...Southern and central Plains... Broad troughing across the western US is forecast to continue through Thursday as high pressure shifts eastward. Embedded within the broader trough, a subtle shortwave is expected to move over the southern and central Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Trailing from a weak surface low across the Dakotas, a lee trough/low will support increasing southerly flow across much of the Plains. Modest moisture return (surface dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s F) will filter westward toward the surface boundary where plentiful diurnal heating is expected. Storms will be possible along the entire corridor from NE into the TX Panhandle, though there remains some uncertainty on convective coverage given the subtle forcing for ascent. Current hi-res guidance suggests the greatest storm coverage will remain closer to the surface low across central and eastern NE, where low-level flow is expected to be locally stronger. By early to mid afternoon, convective development along the length of the lee trough is expected. With only modest surface moisture return forecast, regional model soundings show weak buoyancy profiles generally less than 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Modest flow aloft associated with the shortwave trough should also limit effective shear to 20-25 kt. Storm organization potential will likely remain localized and tied to consolidating outflow/clustering of any multi-cell storms that persist. Should this occur, a well-mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates and LCLs near 2 km may support an isolated risk for damaging outflow winds given the potential for stronger downdrafts. ...Rest of US... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also anticipated across the FL Peninsula, as a moist low-level airmass interacts with a weak stationary front across the region. Weak vertical shear will keep storms unorganized with only locally stronger wind gusts expected. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also expected across the northern Rockies and Great Basin, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the western CONUS. Limited buoyancy and shear should preclude severe storms. ..Lyons/Jewell.. 09/14/2022 Read more

This has been a good year for cranberries in Massachusetts with the fall harvest expected to be 19% bigger than in 2021. Most growers had enough water to irrigate during the summer, using water stored in ponds. Rainfall at the end of summer arrived and refilled the ponds in time for harvest. Spring and early summer offered ideal weather conditions for cranberries. During drought, the fruit quality is often better as the bogs are drier and there isn’t excess moisture to cause rot. Some growers, however, missed out on the rain and didn’t not get their irrigation ponds refilled, which may pose challenges for the harvest. WCAI-FM Cape & Islands NPR (Woods Hole, Mass.), Sept 13, 2022

This has been a good year for cranberries in Massachusetts with the fall harvest expected to be 19% bigger than in 2021. Most growers had enough water to irrigate during the summer, using water stored in ponds. Rainfall at the end of summer arrived and refilled the ponds in time for harvest. Spring and early summer offered ideal weather conditions for cranberries. During drought, the fruit quality is often better as the bogs are drier and there isn’t excess moisture to cause rot. Some growers, however, missed out on the rain and didn’t not get their irrigation ponds refilled, which may pose challenges for the harvest. WCAI-FM Cape & Islands NPR (Woods Hole, Mass.), Sept 13, 2022