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Eastern Equine Encephalitis and West Nile Virus have not been a big threat to the Pioneer Valley in western Massachusetts this year as drought left few pools of water for mosquitoes laying eggs. Statewide, there have been four cases of West Nile Virus this year, compared to 11 human cases last year. The Recorder (Greenfield, Mass.), Sept. 9, 2022

Corn along the Platte River in northeast Nebraska will likely be ready for harvest in late September to early October after just a half of an inch of rain since June. The farmer expected dryland corn yields around a third of normal, due to drought, while irrigated corn might yield nearly 50 bushels less than usual. KETV Newswatch 7 (Omaha, Neb.), Sept. 9, 2022

Below-normal rainfall on the Big Island began to degrade pastures along the windward slopes, which are normally wetter. Water levels in stock ponds in the Hamakua area were dropping. The Leilani brushfire was brought under control in mid-August after consuming nearly 20,000 acres. Pasture conditions were very poor along the lower slopes of the Kau District, and satellite-based vegetation health data showed degraded conditions across most of the South Kohala District and in the North Kona District to the north of the Hualalai volcano. Big Island Video News (Hilo, Hawaii), Sept. 8, 2022

Montana wheat and barley production remained below the five-year average, as drought, pests and market conditions created challenges for grain growers. Last year's production was nearly halved by drought. More farmers expected their profitability to decline this year, compared to last, and more farmers felt that their operation was worse off financially than last year. Bozeman Daily Chronicle (Mont.), Sept. 6, 2022

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 10 17:56:01 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form near the coast of
southern Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some development of this system
by the middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward near
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley, Lower Colorado River Valley, and the Florida Big Bend to southeast Virginia region Sunday morning into early Monday morning. Severe thunderstorm potential is low. ...Mid-MS/OH Valley Vicinity... An upper low is expected to develop Sunday as an early morning shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley spreads eastward across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity. This will result in modest vertical shear across the region as mid/upper flow increases. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front across parts of IL/IN/OH/KY. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit heating. Furthermore, low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Together, this will limit stronger instability from developing, with around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. Some locally gusty winds may accompany stronger storms within clusters or line segments, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low. ...FL Big Bend to the Coastal Carolinas/Southeast VA... A weakening shortwave trough over the Lower MS Valley will spread eastward across the southeastern U.S. Vertical shear will remain weak across the region, with some modest enhancement of mid/upper southwesterly flow. Nevertheless, a very moist airmass will be in place, with afternoon temperatures warming into the upper 70s to upper 80s, supporting weak destabilization. Organized severe storms are expected to remain limited by modest instability and poor lapse rates, but locally strong gusts could occur, aided by water-loaded downdrafts in thunderstorm clusters. ...Southern CA into AZ... The remnants of TC Kay will continue to impact the region, with increased low and midlevel moisture persisting across southern CA into AZ/NM. This will support isolated thunderstorm development, especially near higher terrain. The greatest thunderstorm coverage will likely be across parts of the higher terrain of AZ into west-central NM. A few locally strong gusts could accompany this activity if storms can persist as they move off the higher terrain into the lower deserts where steep low level lapse rates are expected. Even so, warm temperatures aloft and modest vertical shear will limit overall severe potential. ..Leitman.. 09/10/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe convective gusts, or a brief tornado, may occur over parts of the southeast states, and the desert southwest. ...Southeast... A persistent upper low remains over LA today, with a plume of deep, moist southerly flow across much of the southeast states. Widespread showers and thunderstorms have been occurring this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity will spread inland this afternoon and affect much of FL/GA. Other more isolated storms will affect parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. Wind fields are modest, but ample moisture and localized enhancements to shear may result in locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCDs #1773 and #1774 for further small-scale details. ...NV/CA... A band of relatively strong easterly mid-level winds extends across northern AZ into southern NV today. Most 12z CAM guidance shows increasing thunderstorm activity along this corridor this afternoon. Forecast soundings show unusually high PWAT values, promoting a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. The area of highest threat appears to extend from northern Death Valley into the deserts of southwest NV. ..Hart/Moore.. 09/10/2022 Read more

MD 1774 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1774 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101616Z - 101815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief/weak tornado or two is possible through the afternoon hours as thunderstorms continue to develop off the Carolina coast and move onshore. A watch is not expected given the limited nature of the threat. DISCUSSION...A pair of weak circulations have been tracked from the KLTX radar in far southeast NC over the past 20-30 minutes. These circulations are associated with largely unorganized marine convection that has begun to move onshore. However, the easterly low-level onshore flow under modest southerly winds between 2-3 km is providing sufficient low-level SRH to support weak storm rotation with the stronger updrafts. This kinematic environment is sampled well by the KTLX VWP, and likely extends northward along the NC coast. Latest visible satellite trends show additional cumulus development offshore, slowly moving towards the coast. Buoyancy will likely continue to increase through the day amid daytime heating and will support additional T-storm chances through the afternoon. Forecast soundings hint that the best kinematic environment will persist now through around 21 UTC, but the overall limited wind magnitudes will support a rather low-end waterspout/tornado threat along the coast. ..Moore/Hart.. 09/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... LAT...LON 33517946 34137899 34817758 35147664 34867609 34507623 34147696 33717789 33477851 33347913 33517946 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Offshore flow across the Pacific Northwest should continue to weaken through the day as the surface pressure diffuses further. Elevated highlights have been maintained as a widespread, very dry low-level airmass remains in place, atop critically dry fuels. Despite a large-scale weaker surface wind field, at least locally stronger winds should persist in terrain-favoring areas with boundary-layer heating/mixing. Otherwise, locally Elevated conditions may still occur later this afternoon east of the Cascades into the Snake River Plain from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho. ..Squitieri.. 09/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move slowly eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley, while a mid/upper-level ridge builds over the western CONUS. Subsidence on the backside of the trough will reinforce an expansive area of high pressure over the northern and central Rockies, while surface low pressure gradually weakens off the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Northwest... Between the surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast and high pressure over the northern/central Rockies, an enhanced surface pressure gradient will support breezy easterly surface winds across parts of the Northwest. Along and west of the Cascades, 15-20 mph sustained surface winds coupled with 15-25 percent RH will lead to elevated fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels over the area. The strongest winds are expected through the Cascade gaps early in the period, before the regional pressure gradient weakens during the late afternoon/early evening hours. While locally critical conditions will be possible primarily over terrain-favored areas along the Cascades, these conditions appear too localized for Critical highlights at this time. East of the Cascades, locally elevated conditions will be possible in the Columbia Basin and through the Snake River Plain, though a limited overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH precludes highlights for these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Potter Fire was reported at 9:00am, Sunday, July 31, 2022.  It is near Potter Mountain on the Middle Fork Ranger District of the Willamette National Forest. Its size was originally estimated at 60 acres, as of mid August it is about 500 acres. Fire crews are used burn out operations to safely bring fire to established fire lines. Mop up of hot spots along firelines is being completed and fire suppression repair has

Connecticut Water reminds its customers to conserve water as the drought persists. CT Insider (Norwalk, Conn.), Sept. 10, 2022 Connecticut Water customers are asked to voluntarily conserve water as drought persists and worsens in the eastern part of the state. It is recommended that people stop lawn watering, cover swimming pools and check for leaks, among other things. Hartford Courant (Ct.), Aug 27, 2022

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 9 17:49:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 9 17:49:02 UTC 2022.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Sep 2022 17:47:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Sep 2022 15:28:49 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 091746 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 ...KAY STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 117.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Eugenia northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border * Bahia de Los Angeles northward along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Puerto Libertad in mainland Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 117.2 West. Kay is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today, and a turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then begin to move further offshore by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center over the Gulf of California. During the past few hours, wind gusts of hurricane force have been reported in the mountains of southern California east and northeast of San Diego. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of California. The flooding could be accompanied by large and damaging waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday... Baja California: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 8 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to 8 inches Arizona and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...KAY STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... As of 11:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 9 the center of Kay was located near 30.7, -117.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 9 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kay, located just off the northern Baja California peninsula.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure may form south or southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development
thereafter while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Sep 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears generally low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress slowly eastward across the north-central CONUS on Saturday. Limited low-level moisture ahead of a surface cold front should hinder the development of meaningful instability from the southern/central Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. While thunderstorms may occur along/behind the length of the front across these areas, severe convection is not expected. A weak upper low centered over the lower MS Valley Saturday morning is forecast to devolve into a trough through the day. Modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow should be present ahead of this feature across portions of the Southeast. Even with a rich low-level airmass in place from FL into GA and the Carolinas, mid-level lapse rates will likely remain quite poor. This should hinder robust updrafts to some extent, even as weak to locally moderate instability develops with daytime heating. At this point, it appears that generally modest deep-layer shear should keep thunderstorms mostly disorganized, and any strong/gusty wind threat rather isolated. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should occur across parts of NM/AZ into the southern Great Basin Saturday afternoon and evening. The stronger low/mid-level winds associated with weakening Tropical Cyclone Kay over the eastern Pacific should be displaced from areas with greater low-level moisture and instability. Accordingly, overall severe potential across the Southwest should remain low. ..Gleason.. 09/09/2022 Read more