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WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0592 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0592 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..ELLIOTT..08/17/19 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-013-017-025-033-037-045-047-049-055-059-065-069-071-075- 085-089-091-093-095-102-103-107-115-117-119-121-123-172140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BROWN BUFFALO CLARK CUSTER DAY EDMUNDS FALL RIVER FAULK HAAKON HAND HUGHES HYDE JACKSON JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON MARSHALL MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON POTTER SPINK STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats are expected across a large portion of the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest, generally during the late afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds are also possible into early evening in parts of the Northeast States. ...Discussion... Only a few changes were made to the previous outlook for this outlook update. 1) Added a 65-kt or greater risk area for wind for adjacent parts of southern NE into northern KS. Recent HRRR time-lagged members indicate the possibility for a bowing system moving eastward within a plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates (in excess of 8 degrees C/km) and a wind profile supportive of organized storms. Uncertainty remains regarding this scenario and therefore will keep at a Slight Risk for this outlook update. 2) Reduced severe probabilities west of the squall line over NY where convective overturning will limit the magnitude of destabilization and the potential for severe later this afternoon into the early evening. 3) With passage of an MCV and the stabilizing influence of a thunderstorm line that moved through IL into eastern IN, have reduced hail/wind probabilities into a Marginal-Risk highlight. 4) Nudged higher severe probabilities westward into east-central CO to account for ongoing and expected storm development forecast to move east off the Palmer Divide towards the northwest KS vicinity. ..Smith.. 08/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... A broad positive-tilt shortwave trough will advance east across the southern Prairie Provinces and MT to ND through tonight. A surface front well in advance of this wave extends from the Red River Valley southwest towards the Black Hills and should remain quasi-stationary before accelerating south/east tonight. The bulk of stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies accompanying the wave will remain confined to the cool side of the front, while a separate belt of enhanced westerlies is confined south across NE. In addition, the northern periphery of steeper mid-level lapse rates from an elevated mixed-layer will probably only overlap the SD portion of the front. Low to mid 60s F surface dew points are expected along the front and should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg. Owing to a lack of stronger capping, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon. A few transient supercells should develop initially, but hodographs do not appear particularly elongated or enlarged given modest low-level winds and weakness aloft in the split flow regime. Given the frontal forcing and predominance of outflow consolidation, broader clusters fusing into one or more lines are expected with eastern extent tonight. Some risk for damaging winds will probably continue across southern MN and northern IA along the northern extent of the larger buoyancy plume. ...Central Great Plains... High-based convection that develops off the Front Range this afternoon should impinge on the recovering moist sector near the CO/KS/NE border towards early evening. On the southern periphery of a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies centered from southern WY across NE amid a very steep lapse rate environment, a swath of severe wind gusts will be possible into north-central KS tonight. ...Mid-MS Valley to IN vicinity... An MCV is centered near the MO/IA/IL border area and should drift east. Several CAMs indicate redevelopment of scattered storms ahead of this feature. This will be highly dependent on more robust destabilization occurring in the wake of a leading MCS in IN. At least a conditional threat for damaging winds and severe hail exists, mainly during the evening. Warm-advection storms overnight may also pose an isolated severe risk. ...Northeast... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse over southern Ontario should slowly move across the Saint Lawrence Valley. Scattered convection is ongoing in association with this wave and will likely persist through the afternoon as further surface-based destabilization occurs downstream. Weak low-level winds and modest mid-level lapse rates will be limiting factors. Most of the stronger speed shear should be confined to the upper portion of the buoyancy profile. Setup should foster a risk of isolated marginally severe hail and scattered damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats are expected across a large portion of the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest, generally during the late afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds are also possible into early evening in parts of the Northeast States. ...Discussion... Only a few changes were made to the previous outlook for this outlook update. 1) Added a 65-kt or greater risk area for wind for adjacent parts of southern NE into northern KS. Recent HRRR time-lagged members indicate the possibility for a bowing system moving eastward within a plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates (in excess of 8 degrees C/km) and a wind profile supportive of organized storms. Uncertainty remains regarding this scenario and therefore will keep at a Slight Risk for this outlook update. 2) Reduced severe probabilities west of the squall line over NY where convective overturning will limit the magnitude of destabilization and the potential for severe later this afternoon into the early evening. 3) With passage of an MCV and the stabilizing influence of a thunderstorm line that moved through IL into eastern IN, have reduced hail/wind probabilities into a Marginal-Risk highlight. 4) Nudged higher severe probabilities westward into east-central CO to account for ongoing and expected storm development forecast to move east off the Palmer Divide towards the northwest KS vicinity. ..Smith.. 08/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... A broad positive-tilt shortwave trough will advance east across the southern Prairie Provinces and MT to ND through tonight. A surface front well in advance of this wave extends from the Red River Valley southwest towards the Black Hills and should remain quasi-stationary before accelerating south/east tonight. The bulk of stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies accompanying the wave will remain confined to the cool side of the front, while a separate belt of enhanced westerlies is confined south across NE. In addition, the northern periphery of steeper mid-level lapse rates from an elevated mixed-layer will probably only overlap the SD portion of the front. Low to mid 60s F surface dew points are expected along the front and should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg. Owing to a lack of stronger capping, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon. A few transient supercells should develop initially, but hodographs do not appear particularly elongated or enlarged given modest low-level winds and weakness aloft in the split flow regime. Given the frontal forcing and predominance of outflow consolidation, broader clusters fusing into one or more lines are expected with eastern extent tonight. Some risk for damaging winds will probably continue across southern MN and northern IA along the northern extent of the larger buoyancy plume. ...Central Great Plains... High-based convection that develops off the Front Range this afternoon should impinge on the recovering moist sector near the CO/KS/NE border towards early evening. On the southern periphery of a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies centered from southern WY across NE amid a very steep lapse rate environment, a swath of severe wind gusts will be possible into north-central KS tonight. ...Mid-MS Valley to IN vicinity... An MCV is centered near the MO/IA/IL border area and should drift east. Several CAMs indicate redevelopment of scattered storms ahead of this feature. This will be highly dependent on more robust destabilization occurring in the wake of a leading MCS in IN. At least a conditional threat for damaging winds and severe hail exists, mainly during the evening. Warm-advection storms overnight may also pose an isolated severe risk. ...Northeast... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse over southern Ontario should slowly move across the Saint Lawrence Valley. Scattered convection is ongoing in association with this wave and will likely persist through the afternoon as further surface-based destabilization occurs downstream. Weak low-level winds and modest mid-level lapse rates will be limiting factors. Most of the stronger speed shear should be confined to the upper portion of the buoyancy profile. Setup should foster a risk of isolated marginally severe hail and scattered damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats are expected across a large portion of the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest, generally during the late afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds are also possible into early evening in parts of the Northeast States. ...Discussion... Only a few changes were made to the previous outlook for this outlook update. 1) Added a 65-kt or greater risk area for wind for adjacent parts of southern NE into northern KS. Recent HRRR time-lagged members indicate the possibility for a bowing system moving eastward within a plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates (in excess of 8 degrees C/km) and a wind profile supportive of organized storms. Uncertainty remains regarding this scenario and therefore will keep at a Slight Risk for this outlook update. 2) Reduced severe probabilities west of the squall line over NY where convective overturning will limit the magnitude of destabilization and the potential for severe later this afternoon into the early evening. 3) With passage of an MCV and the stabilizing influence of a thunderstorm line that moved through IL into eastern IN, have reduced hail/wind probabilities into a Marginal-Risk highlight. 4) Nudged higher severe probabilities westward into east-central CO to account for ongoing and expected storm development forecast to move east off the Palmer Divide towards the northwest KS vicinity. ..Smith.. 08/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... A broad positive-tilt shortwave trough will advance east across the southern Prairie Provinces and MT to ND through tonight. A surface front well in advance of this wave extends from the Red River Valley southwest towards the Black Hills and should remain quasi-stationary before accelerating south/east tonight. The bulk of stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies accompanying the wave will remain confined to the cool side of the front, while a separate belt of enhanced westerlies is confined south across NE. In addition, the northern periphery of steeper mid-level lapse rates from an elevated mixed-layer will probably only overlap the SD portion of the front. Low to mid 60s F surface dew points are expected along the front and should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg. Owing to a lack of stronger capping, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon. A few transient supercells should develop initially, but hodographs do not appear particularly elongated or enlarged given modest low-level winds and weakness aloft in the split flow regime. Given the frontal forcing and predominance of outflow consolidation, broader clusters fusing into one or more lines are expected with eastern extent tonight. Some risk for damaging winds will probably continue across southern MN and northern IA along the northern extent of the larger buoyancy plume. ...Central Great Plains... High-based convection that develops off the Front Range this afternoon should impinge on the recovering moist sector near the CO/KS/NE border towards early evening. On the southern periphery of a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies centered from southern WY across NE amid a very steep lapse rate environment, a swath of severe wind gusts will be possible into north-central KS tonight. ...Mid-MS Valley to IN vicinity... An MCV is centered near the MO/IA/IL border area and should drift east. Several CAMs indicate redevelopment of scattered storms ahead of this feature. This will be highly dependent on more robust destabilization occurring in the wake of a leading MCS in IN. At least a conditional threat for damaging winds and severe hail exists, mainly during the evening. Warm-advection storms overnight may also pose an isolated severe risk. ...Northeast... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse over southern Ontario should slowly move across the Saint Lawrence Valley. Scattered convection is ongoing in association with this wave and will likely persist through the afternoon as further surface-based destabilization occurs downstream. Weak low-level winds and modest mid-level lapse rates will be limiting factors. Most of the stronger speed shear should be confined to the upper portion of the buoyancy profile. Setup should foster a risk of isolated marginally severe hail and scattered damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats are expected across a large portion of the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest, generally during the late afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds are also possible into early evening in parts of the Northeast States. ...Discussion... Only a few changes were made to the previous outlook for this outlook update. 1) Added a 65-kt or greater risk area for wind for adjacent parts of southern NE into northern KS. Recent HRRR time-lagged members indicate the possibility for a bowing system moving eastward within a plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates (in excess of 8 degrees C/km) and a wind profile supportive of organized storms. Uncertainty remains regarding this scenario and therefore will keep at a Slight Risk for this outlook update. 2) Reduced severe probabilities west of the squall line over NY where convective overturning will limit the magnitude of destabilization and the potential for severe later this afternoon into the early evening. 3) With passage of an MCV and the stabilizing influence of a thunderstorm line that moved through IL into eastern IN, have reduced hail/wind probabilities into a Marginal-Risk highlight. 4) Nudged higher severe probabilities westward into east-central CO to account for ongoing and expected storm development forecast to move east off the Palmer Divide towards the northwest KS vicinity. ..Smith.. 08/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... A broad positive-tilt shortwave trough will advance east across the southern Prairie Provinces and MT to ND through tonight. A surface front well in advance of this wave extends from the Red River Valley southwest towards the Black Hills and should remain quasi-stationary before accelerating south/east tonight. The bulk of stronger mid-level west-southwesterlies accompanying the wave will remain confined to the cool side of the front, while a separate belt of enhanced westerlies is confined south across NE. In addition, the northern periphery of steeper mid-level lapse rates from an elevated mixed-layer will probably only overlap the SD portion of the front. Low to mid 60s F surface dew points are expected along the front and should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg. Owing to a lack of stronger capping, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon. A few transient supercells should develop initially, but hodographs do not appear particularly elongated or enlarged given modest low-level winds and weakness aloft in the split flow regime. Given the frontal forcing and predominance of outflow consolidation, broader clusters fusing into one or more lines are expected with eastern extent tonight. Some risk for damaging winds will probably continue across southern MN and northern IA along the northern extent of the larger buoyancy plume. ...Central Great Plains... High-based convection that develops off the Front Range this afternoon should impinge on the recovering moist sector near the CO/KS/NE border towards early evening. On the southern periphery of a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies centered from southern WY across NE amid a very steep lapse rate environment, a swath of severe wind gusts will be possible into north-central KS tonight. ...Mid-MS Valley to IN vicinity... An MCV is centered near the MO/IA/IL border area and should drift east. Several CAMs indicate redevelopment of scattered storms ahead of this feature. This will be highly dependent on more robust destabilization occurring in the wake of a leading MCS in IN. At least a conditional threat for damaging winds and severe hail exists, mainly during the evening. Warm-advection storms overnight may also pose an isolated severe risk. ...Northeast... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse over southern Ontario should slowly move across the Saint Lawrence Valley. Scattered convection is ongoing in association with this wave and will likely persist through the afternoon as further surface-based destabilization occurs downstream. Weak low-level winds and modest mid-level lapse rates will be limiting factors. Most of the stronger speed shear should be confined to the upper portion of the buoyancy profile. Setup should foster a risk of isolated marginally severe hail and scattered damaging winds. Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0591 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1770 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST NE AND NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1770 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...northeast CO...southwest NE and northwest KS Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 171934Z - 172130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of strong, damaging gusts and hail will increase in the coverage through the afternoon and shift east/southeast through this evening. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms were developing this afternoon near the higher terrain of north-central CO as a subtle shortwave impulse ejects across the area. Surface dewpoints increase from meager 30s F near the I-25 corridor to the mid 60s just east of the CO/NE/KS tri-state area. Meanwhile, a plume of very steep midlevel lapse rates reside across the region, resulting in MLCAPE values increasing from around 500-1000 J/KG near the Palmer Divide to 2000 J/kg across parts of western into central KS/NE. With continued destabilization, high-based convection is expected to increase in coverage. On the southern fringes of strong deep-layer flow, bulk shear values around 25-35 kt should help to sustain organized cells. While steep lapse rates will support hail production, damaging wind is also possible. Strong downdrafts/downward transport will be supported by a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer and light low level winds. As such, a swath of damaging wind is possible across parts of southwest NE/northeast CO/northwest KS this afternoon and evening. A severe thunderstorm watch likely will be needed in the next couple of hours. ..Leitman/Grams.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41810257 41590190 41290117 40560005 39859982 39270012 38800069 38750159 38840297 38950425 39200460 39870475 41060437 41620408 41830353 41810257 Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0590 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area, but the forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Confidence in meeting critical wind criteria remains too low for an upgrade at this time. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 08/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS behind a shortwave trough moving over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes tomorrow. Mid-level westerly flow of 25-50 knots will likely remain from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. Once again, daytime heating will deepen the boundary layer and allow stronger winds to mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%). This will be the fourth consecutive day for dry/windy conditions across the area and ERCs are now mostly between the 70th and 90th percentile. Hot/dry conditions will continue across much of the Intermountain West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area, but the forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Confidence in meeting critical wind criteria remains too low for an upgrade at this time. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 08/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS behind a shortwave trough moving over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes tomorrow. Mid-level westerly flow of 25-50 knots will likely remain from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. Once again, daytime heating will deepen the boundary layer and allow stronger winds to mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%). This will be the fourth consecutive day for dry/windy conditions across the area and ERCs are now mostly between the 70th and 90th percentile. Hot/dry conditions will continue across much of the Intermountain West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area, but the forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Confidence in meeting critical wind criteria remains too low for an upgrade at this time. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 08/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS behind a shortwave trough moving over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes tomorrow. Mid-level westerly flow of 25-50 knots will likely remain from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. Once again, daytime heating will deepen the boundary layer and allow stronger winds to mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%). This will be the fourth consecutive day for dry/windy conditions across the area and ERCs are now mostly between the 70th and 90th percentile. Hot/dry conditions will continue across much of the Intermountain West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area, but the forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Confidence in meeting critical wind criteria remains too low for an upgrade at this time. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 08/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS behind a shortwave trough moving over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes tomorrow. Mid-level westerly flow of 25-50 knots will likely remain from southern Idaho into the central/northern High Plains. Once again, daytime heating will deepen the boundary layer and allow stronger winds to mix to the surface resulting in elevated to locally critical conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%). This will be the fourth consecutive day for dry/windy conditions across the area and ERCs are now mostly between the 70th and 90th percentile. Hot/dry conditions will continue across much of the Intermountain West. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 17 18:05:03 UTC 2019.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. NOAA and the National Science Foundation are
currently conducting a research mission in this system, and the
data from the mission indicate that the circulation remains broad
and elongated, and surface pressures are relatively high. Still,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel
to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, moisture
associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave located about 850 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves slowly westward at about 5 mph across the southwestern portion
of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

MD 1769 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1769 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...much of SD into southeast ND Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 171731Z - 171930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase across South Dakota into southeast North Dakota through the afternoon. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with these storms. DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has developed early this afternoon near SPF in the Black Hills in moist, upslope flow regime and 1.5 inch hail was recently reported. Surface temperatures across far western SD to the south of a cold front have only warmed into the low 70s, resulting in weak instability. However, further east into central SD, temperatures are rapidly warming into the 80s with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. With additional heating, instability should continue to increase with MLCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg in the next few hours. EML should also rapidly erode as forcing for ascent continues to increase, both along the southeastward-advancing cold front and as midlevel shortwave impulse brushes the area. As a result, a gradual increase in thunderstorms development along/ahead of the front is expected over the next few hours across western into central SD and southeast ND. Effective shear around 40+ kt and steep midlevel lapse rates will support rotating updrafts and supercell structures capable of producing large hail initially. However, convection may quickly become more linear or clustered, which could limit a larger/greater hail threat. Steep low level lapse rates and a well-mixed sub-cloud layer will support strong downdrafts and damaging winds are possible. With time, convection may congeal into one or more surging lines either along the cold front or through storms mergers/outflow interactions, further increasing severe/damaging wind potential. Given the expected increase in storm coverage/intensity over the next 1-3 hours, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two. ..Leitman/Grams.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45880070 46679871 46969809 46929757 46769712 46189707 45319749 44419819 43869891 43479981 43240228 43390378 43650407 44120420 44410409 44760367 45880070 Read more

MD 1768 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1768 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171727Z - 171930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue increasing in coverage and intensity into early evening. The strongest storms will be capable of scattered wind damage and isolated large hail. A WW is possible. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery and lightning data shows thunderstorms gradually increasing in intensity/coverage over portions of northeast Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and northern New York in association with a shortwave impulse over southern Ontario. The kinematic environment across the area is characterized by at least modest deep-layer shear, with effective bulk shear of 30-40 knots -- greatest across northern portions of MCD area. While cloud cover and relatively warm mid-level temperatures will impede strong destabilization over the area, at least filtered sunshine should allow MLCAPE values to rise to near 1000-1500 J/kg by this afternoon -- especially over portions of central Pennsylvania/New York where visible satellite imagery shows greater cloud breaks. The combination of these ingredients should allow for at least periodic storm intensification with scattered wind damage and isolated large hail in the strongest storms/updrafts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible over parts of this area in the next few hours. ..Elliott/Grams.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... CLE... LAT...LON 43147732 43407651 44017533 44167417 43827337 42327392 40907470 39997523 39927597 40067645 40527676 41287689 41477790 41447881 41447973 41488051 41568088 42237989 43147732 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of severe gusts and large hail are possible over northeastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and western Missouri mainly Sunday afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the eastern Dakotas will rapidly move through the Upper Midwest during the day before reaching the Ontario/Quebec border by daybreak Monday. A cold front will extend from the Upper Midwest southwest into central KS with the northern portion of the front moving east into the central Great Lakes during the day while the trailing portion of the boundary decelerates over KS. South and east of the boundary, a reservoir of lower-middle 70s F dewpoints will encompass much of the area from the eastern half of OK and AR northeast into the southern Great Lakes in areas void of convective outflow. ...MO/KS/OK vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from eastern KS eastward into IA/IL aided by a weakening southwesterly LLJ extending from the southern High Plains to southern Lake MI. Convective outflow and cloud debris will retard surface heating over the lower MO Valley and across parts of IL during the morning into the early afternoon. Strong heating is forecast over eastern OK into southeast KS where a very unstable airmass is forecast (3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE). Strong westerly flow increasing from 30kt at 500mb to 60kt at 200mb atop low-level southerlies will yield a wind profile supportive of organized storms. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with this activity. Storm coverage is expected to become increasingly isolated with southwest extent along the I-44 corridor from northeast OK into southwest OK. ...Mid MS Valley into the southern Great Lakes... Storms are forecast to be ongoing across parts of IA, IL, and WI related to warm advection with a southwesterly low-level jet. Some of this activity could produce strong wind gusts, but is expected to weaken during the day. Recent model data indicates the possibility for a convective line to develop or rejuvenate along preexisting outflow from earlier storms moving into the southwest Great Lakes. Boundary layer destabilization will lead to potential for intensifying storms with a risk for strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. If a corridor can be identified in later outlooks, an upgrade to slight risk is possible across the southern Great Lakes (i.e., Michiana and northwest OH) for this scenario. Storms are expected to weaken by early evening coincident with the loss of heating. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Smith.. 08/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of severe gusts and large hail are possible over northeastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and western Missouri mainly Sunday afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the eastern Dakotas will rapidly move through the Upper Midwest during the day before reaching the Ontario/Quebec border by daybreak Monday. A cold front will extend from the Upper Midwest southwest into central KS with the northern portion of the front moving east into the central Great Lakes during the day while the trailing portion of the boundary decelerates over KS. South and east of the boundary, a reservoir of lower-middle 70s F dewpoints will encompass much of the area from the eastern half of OK and AR northeast into the southern Great Lakes in areas void of convective outflow. ...MO/KS/OK vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from eastern KS eastward into IA/IL aided by a weakening southwesterly LLJ extending from the southern High Plains to southern Lake MI. Convective outflow and cloud debris will retard surface heating over the lower MO Valley and across parts of IL during the morning into the early afternoon. Strong heating is forecast over eastern OK into southeast KS where a very unstable airmass is forecast (3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE). Strong westerly flow increasing from 30kt at 500mb to 60kt at 200mb atop low-level southerlies will yield a wind profile supportive of organized storms. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with this activity. Storm coverage is expected to become increasingly isolated with southwest extent along the I-44 corridor from northeast OK into southwest OK. ...Mid MS Valley into the southern Great Lakes... Storms are forecast to be ongoing across parts of IA, IL, and WI related to warm advection with a southwesterly low-level jet. Some of this activity could produce strong wind gusts, but is expected to weaken during the day. Recent model data indicates the possibility for a convective line to develop or rejuvenate along preexisting outflow from earlier storms moving into the southwest Great Lakes. Boundary layer destabilization will lead to potential for intensifying storms with a risk for strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. If a corridor can be identified in later outlooks, an upgrade to slight risk is possible across the southern Great Lakes (i.e., Michiana and northwest OH) for this scenario. Storms are expected to weaken by early evening coincident with the loss of heating. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Smith.. 08/17/2019 Read more