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The Russell Mountain Fire was reported early afternoon on August 24, 2022. It is located within the Selkirk Mountain Range on the Bonners Ferry Ranger District of the Idaho Panhandle National Forests. It is approximately 10 miles southwest of Copeland Idaho, near the Ball Creek drainage and burning on a southern aspect. There are currently no values at risk and it's current strategy management is confine and contain. There are no evacuations at this time. However, when living in fire prone areas it is recommended that all area residents have an evacuation plan in place including having all important documents, pictures, prescriptions, and pets gathered up and easily transportable. Residents of Boundary County, ID can visit https://www.nixle.com or text home zip code to 888777 to sign up for emergency

   Idaho Panhandle National Forests Inciweb: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8374/                              https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8338/ https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8356/                             https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8360/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/USFSIPNF   Public Information Phone: (208) 557-8813 Boundary County Emergency Line: (208) 696-2629 District Fact Sheets will be provided if a significant event occurs.   Location: Bonners Ferry, Idaho Name of Fire Start Date Size (Acres) Cause Containment Eneas Peak August 13, 2022 1,123 Lightning 0% Trout August 21, 2022 678 Lightning 0% Russell Mountain August 24, 2022 3,107 Lightning 0% Scotch September 1, 2022 494 Lightning `0%   Last night, a reconnaissance flight checked the status of existing fires. The Eneas Peak fire grew 178 acres;...

Bonners Ferry Ranger District Katka Fire Fact Sheet  Friday, September 2, 2022Idaho Panhandle National Forests, Bonners Ferry Ranger DistrictInciweb: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8373/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/USFSIPNFPublic Information Phone: (208) 557-8813Boundary County Emergency Line: (208) 696-2629Fire Name:  Katka Fire       Location:  Bonners Ferry, IdahoStarted:  August 31, 2022       Cause: LightningSize:  35 Acres                       Containment:   0% Aerial detection identified several new fire starts resulting from Wednesday’s weather system, including the Katka Fire.  The fire is burning near Katka Peak in very steep terrain. Crews continue responding to multiple fires on the District and prioritizing resources based upon values at risk. Fires currently burning in the Selkirk Mountains are being reported in another Fact Sheet.Significant aerial efforts Thursday on the Katka Fire (including use of large air tankers, FireBoss...

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2022 14:49:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2022 15:36:22 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 694 WTPZ42 KNHC 041448 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico has developed sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center to be classified a tropical depression. Thunderstorm activity, with a significant amount of lightning, is strongest in a band on the system's west side. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. It should also be noted there are likely strong wind gusts to the north of the center where winds typically accelerate in these situations near the coast of Mexico. The initial motion is estimated to be 280/9 kt, but this is somewhat uncertain since the system just formed. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, keeping the core of the system south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during that time. Thereafter, the models all show a turn to the northwest and then the north. Although the models agree on this turn, there is some spread on where and how sharply the system recurves. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads show solutions as far east as the Gulf of California and as far west as a few hundred miles west of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track forecast follows the consensus models, which takes the system very near the Baja peninsula in 4 to 5 days. Overall, the environmental factors appear conducive for the depression to intensify during the next few days with the shear remaining low to moderate in strength, mid-level moisture very high, and SSTs sufficently warm. However, the large size of the system and lack of an inner core should limit rapid intensification in the short term. The intensity guidance show at least steady strengthening during the next 72 hours followed by some weakening toward the end of the forecast period due to cooler SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN guidance, and shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today and a significant hurricane near Baja in a few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the depression is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding in portions of southwestern Mexico. 2. Interests in the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor the depression as tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.0N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.6N 105.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 15.3N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 17.8N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 19.6N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 23.6N 112.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022 916 FOPZ12 KNHC 041447 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 31(41) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 2(37) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 2(32) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 1 63(64) 13(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 105W 50 X 19(19) 10(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 105W 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 23(28) 11(39) 1(40) X(40) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 50(55) 8(63) X(63) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 6(27) X(27) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 75(82) 3(85) 1(86) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 5(53) X(53) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) X(27) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 1(21) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 25(44) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 634 WTPZ32 KNHC 041447 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 101.4W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 101.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. The depression is expected to remain south of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Tuesday, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolatd storm totals of 5 inches, across coastal portions of southwestern Mexico from Guerrero northwestward to Jalisco over the next few days. WIND: Gusty winds are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico in outer rainbands during the next couple of days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 the center of Twelve-E was located near 14.0, -101.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022 395 WTPZ22 KNHC 041447 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 101.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 101.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 100.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.3N 103.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.6N 105.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.3N 106.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 110.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 111.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 112.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 101.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

The Boulder Mountain Fire started by lightning on Wednesday August 31, 2022 at approximately 8:30 pm. The fire is located in the Tacoma Creek and Boulder Mountain area northwest of Cusick, Washington. The fire is burning on Federal, State and Private land. The terrain is difficult and the fire is burning in heavy timber, slash, and beetle infested trees. The Northeast Washington Interagency Incident Management Team Type 3 Team 2 has assumed command of the fire as of this morning.  The fire is in an area that is difficult to reach with crews at this time. The primary objective today is scouting and shoring up road systems to the fire and creating additional access points. Air resources will continue to be in the area and assist crews on the ground to work areas that need immediate attention. There are level 3 evacuation orders in place. The fire is approximately 2000 acres and is 0% contained.  With the Labor Day weekend upon us we ask that the public stay out of the area. There are...

Many of Boston's homes and landmarks were built on wood pilings driven deep into the ground, a European method of construction. The pilings can fail to support buildings when they dry out and decay as is occurring amid this drought. The pilings remain strong as long as they are submerged, but many of the city’s 813 monitoring wells indicated drops in water levels, with 31 at their lowest level on record. A short period of decay should not cause immediate damage to a building, according to experts. But significant problems can begin to occur in as little as three years when rotted pilings allow a building to settle and crack. The Boston Globe (Mass.), Sept. 3, 2022

Water restrictions in Massachusetts mean that many sports fields were not being watered, leaving them harder, drier and less safe. Worn, dry grass fields can also be damaged from use. CBS Boston (Mass.), Sept 2, 2022

Rockland County extended its stage II water emergency, which originally took effect on Aug. 18. Among the water restrictions, restaurant patrons must ask for water. NBC New York, Sept. 3, 2022

The Suffolk County Water Authority announced on Sept. 2 that it had extended its water emergency order to all of its 1.2 million customers, due to severe drought. The Stage 1 Water Emergency reaches from the Nassau/Suffolk border to Montauk, according to the SCWA. Only its East End customers had been affected by the original declaration issued in early August. Now all SCWA customers are urged to stop non-essential water uses and to avoid lawn watering between 12 a.m. and 7 a.m., which is the time the water system is usually most stressed. NBC New York, Sept. 3, 2022

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031742 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Javier Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 115.4W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito northward to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito * The east coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 115.4 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue through today. A slow turn toward the west-northwest to west is expected to begin early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier should move generally parallel to but offshore of the coast of Baja California Sur through today, and then turn away from the coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Javier is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days and become a post-tropical cyclone by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area and are possible in portions of the watch area through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of additional rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches across portions of Baja California Sur through today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2022 17:42:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2022 15:46:17 GMT

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 3 17:40:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 3 17:40:02 UTC 2022.

The town of Strasburg declared a drought watch and urged residents to conserve water voluntarily. The low river flow caused the town to observe the drought response plan as outlined by the Northern Shenandoah Valley Regional Water Supply and the Virginia Water Protection withdrawal permit issued by the Department of Environmental Quality. The River 95.3 WZRV (Front Royal, Va.), Sept. 3, 2022

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Desert Southwest Sunday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will deamplify somewhat tomorrow as a mid-level shortwave traverses the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Farther east, a slow-moving upper-level low will continue to slowly drift east through the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected in much of the moist sector, extending from most of Texas and the Southeast through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. An even greater concentration of thunderstorms is likely near and east of the upper-level low across the Ohio Valley. However, wind shear will remain weak across the warm sector. Therefore, storm organization should be minimal. ...Portions of the Desert Southwest... Some thunderstorms will likely develop and move off the higher terrain across portions of Northwest Arizona Sunday afternoon/evening. Weak to moderate instability amid 30 knots of mid-level easterly flow should provide an environment favorable for a few strong to severe storms. The primary threat will be damaging winds, particularly with any clusters which may develop and move across the Colorado River Valley. ...Northern/Central Texas... There is some signal in convective allowing guidance for a potential cluster/southward moving line of storms across central Texas. A cold front will be moving south through this region which could provide the focus for more concentrated convection, and forecast MLCAPE will be around 2000-2500 J/kg. However, wind shear will be very weak and therefore, organized severe convection is not anticipated. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2022 Read more