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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains, across Kansas and Missouri and into southern Illinois Friday with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other isolated strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind may occur over the central High Plains region. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave troughs will move through the Plains within a broad fetch of modest westerlies. At the surface a convectively reinforced warm front extends from a weak surface low in central KS through southwestern MO. A stationary front extends southwest from the low into southwestern KS and southeast CO. The warm front should move northeast during the afternoon, with the effective front likely extending from north-central MO west southwest through central and southwestern KS. ...Central Plains through the middle Mississippi Valley region... By the start of the period, a convectively reinforced front should extend from southern MO northwest to a weak surface low in central KS, with a stationary front extending from the low through southwest KS. Thunderstorms should still be in progress from far eastern KS into central and southern MO, but are expected to gradually diminish as the nocturnal southwesterly low-level jet weakens. The reinforced front should begin to move northeast as a warm front and become situated across northeast KS into northern MO by early evening with trailing stationary front remaining across central through southwest KS. The warm sector south of these boundaries will be very moist, with low 70s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates associated with a warm EML supporting 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shortwave trough now moving through WY will continue through NE north of the warm sector. A capping inversion, associated with the warm EML, and only weak forcing, suggests surface-based thunderstorm initiation should remain limited during the day, except possibly near the convergence boundary over south-central or southwest KS where deeper mixing is possible. Isolated downburst winds and hail will be possible with this activity. Assuming morning storms diminish as anticipated, more substantial severe threat is expected to evolve from a portion of eastern KS into MO when storms should redevelop mainly along and north of the warm front within zone of increasing isentropic ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. This region will reside within belt of moderate westerlies supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Low-level hodographs will also be augmented in vicinity of the boundary. All severe threats are possible including supercells with very large hail and possibly a couple tornadoes, with primary threat eventually transitioning to damaging wind as storms grow upscale later in the evening. ...Central High Plains region... An easterly upslope component will persist over the central High Plains where moderate instability and 40-45 kt effective shear will reside during the afternoon. While forcing aloft will remain weak, at least isolated storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability. A few supercells and bowing with large hail and downburst winds will be the main threats. Additional storms may develop over northern KS within zone of isentropic ascent north of the stationary front overnight with a threat for mainly isolated hail. ...Northeast States... A progressive shortwave trough will interact with a modest thermodynamic environment during the afternoon, contributing to a few thunderstorms developing along a convergent trough axis. A few of these storms could produce isolated strong wind gusts before diminishing during the evening. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains, across Kansas and Missouri and into southern Illinois Friday with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other isolated strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind may occur over the central High Plains region. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave troughs will move through the Plains within a broad fetch of modest westerlies. At the surface a convectively reinforced warm front extends from a weak surface low in central KS through southwestern MO. A stationary front extends southwest from the low into southwestern KS and southeast CO. The warm front should move northeast during the afternoon, with the effective front likely extending from north-central MO west southwest through central and southwestern KS. ...Central Plains through the middle Mississippi Valley region... By the start of the period, a convectively reinforced front should extend from southern MO northwest to a weak surface low in central KS, with a stationary front extending from the low through southwest KS. Thunderstorms should still be in progress from far eastern KS into central and southern MO, but are expected to gradually diminish as the nocturnal southwesterly low-level jet weakens. The reinforced front should begin to move northeast as a warm front and become situated across northeast KS into northern MO by early evening with trailing stationary front remaining across central through southwest KS. The warm sector south of these boundaries will be very moist, with low 70s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates associated with a warm EML supporting 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shortwave trough now moving through WY will continue through NE north of the warm sector. A capping inversion, associated with the warm EML, and only weak forcing, suggests surface-based thunderstorm initiation should remain limited during the day, except possibly near the convergence boundary over south-central or southwest KS where deeper mixing is possible. Isolated downburst winds and hail will be possible with this activity. Assuming morning storms diminish as anticipated, more substantial severe threat is expected to evolve from a portion of eastern KS into MO when storms should redevelop mainly along and north of the warm front within zone of increasing isentropic ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. This region will reside within belt of moderate westerlies supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Low-level hodographs will also be augmented in vicinity of the boundary. All severe threats are possible including supercells with very large hail and possibly a couple tornadoes, with primary threat eventually transitioning to damaging wind as storms grow upscale later in the evening. ...Central High Plains region... An easterly upslope component will persist over the central High Plains where moderate instability and 40-45 kt effective shear will reside during the afternoon. While forcing aloft will remain weak, at least isolated storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability. A few supercells and bowing with large hail and downburst winds will be the main threats. Additional storms may develop over northern KS within zone of isentropic ascent north of the stationary front overnight with a threat for mainly isolated hail. ...Northeast States... A progressive shortwave trough will interact with a modest thermodynamic environment during the afternoon, contributing to a few thunderstorms developing along a convergent trough axis. A few of these storms could produce isolated strong wind gusts before diminishing during the evening. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains, across Kansas and Missouri and into southern Illinois Friday with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other isolated strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind may occur over the central High Plains region. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave troughs will move through the Plains within a broad fetch of modest westerlies. At the surface a convectively reinforced warm front extends from a weak surface low in central KS through southwestern MO. A stationary front extends southwest from the low into southwestern KS and southeast CO. The warm front should move northeast during the afternoon, with the effective front likely extending from north-central MO west southwest through central and southwestern KS. ...Central Plains through the middle Mississippi Valley region... By the start of the period, a convectively reinforced front should extend from southern MO northwest to a weak surface low in central KS, with a stationary front extending from the low through southwest KS. Thunderstorms should still be in progress from far eastern KS into central and southern MO, but are expected to gradually diminish as the nocturnal southwesterly low-level jet weakens. The reinforced front should begin to move northeast as a warm front and become situated across northeast KS into northern MO by early evening with trailing stationary front remaining across central through southwest KS. The warm sector south of these boundaries will be very moist, with low 70s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates associated with a warm EML supporting 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shortwave trough now moving through WY will continue through NE north of the warm sector. A capping inversion, associated with the warm EML, and only weak forcing, suggests surface-based thunderstorm initiation should remain limited during the day, except possibly near the convergence boundary over south-central or southwest KS where deeper mixing is possible. Isolated downburst winds and hail will be possible with this activity. Assuming morning storms diminish as anticipated, more substantial severe threat is expected to evolve from a portion of eastern KS into MO when storms should redevelop mainly along and north of the warm front within zone of increasing isentropic ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. This region will reside within belt of moderate westerlies supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Low-level hodographs will also be augmented in vicinity of the boundary. All severe threats are possible including supercells with very large hail and possibly a couple tornadoes, with primary threat eventually transitioning to damaging wind as storms grow upscale later in the evening. ...Central High Plains region... An easterly upslope component will persist over the central High Plains where moderate instability and 40-45 kt effective shear will reside during the afternoon. While forcing aloft will remain weak, at least isolated storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability. A few supercells and bowing with large hail and downburst winds will be the main threats. Additional storms may develop over northern KS within zone of isentropic ascent north of the stationary front overnight with a threat for mainly isolated hail. ...Northeast States... A progressive shortwave trough will interact with a modest thermodynamic environment during the afternoon, contributing to a few thunderstorms developing along a convergent trough axis. A few of these storms could produce isolated strong wind gusts before diminishing during the evening. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains, across Kansas and Missouri and into southern Illinois Friday with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other isolated strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind may occur over the central High Plains region. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave troughs will move through the Plains within a broad fetch of modest westerlies. At the surface a convectively reinforced warm front extends from a weak surface low in central KS through southwestern MO. A stationary front extends southwest from the low into southwestern KS and southeast CO. The warm front should move northeast during the afternoon, with the effective front likely extending from north-central MO west southwest through central and southwestern KS. ...Central Plains through the middle Mississippi Valley region... By the start of the period, a convectively reinforced front should extend from southern MO northwest to a weak surface low in central KS, with a stationary front extending from the low through southwest KS. Thunderstorms should still be in progress from far eastern KS into central and southern MO, but are expected to gradually diminish as the nocturnal southwesterly low-level jet weakens. The reinforced front should begin to move northeast as a warm front and become situated across northeast KS into northern MO by early evening with trailing stationary front remaining across central through southwest KS. The warm sector south of these boundaries will be very moist, with low 70s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates associated with a warm EML supporting 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shortwave trough now moving through WY will continue through NE north of the warm sector. A capping inversion, associated with the warm EML, and only weak forcing, suggests surface-based thunderstorm initiation should remain limited during the day, except possibly near the convergence boundary over south-central or southwest KS where deeper mixing is possible. Isolated downburst winds and hail will be possible with this activity. Assuming morning storms diminish as anticipated, more substantial severe threat is expected to evolve from a portion of eastern KS into MO when storms should redevelop mainly along and north of the warm front within zone of increasing isentropic ascent on nose of a strengthening low-level jet. This region will reside within belt of moderate westerlies supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Low-level hodographs will also be augmented in vicinity of the boundary. All severe threats are possible including supercells with very large hail and possibly a couple tornadoes, with primary threat eventually transitioning to damaging wind as storms grow upscale later in the evening. ...Central High Plains region... An easterly upslope component will persist over the central High Plains where moderate instability and 40-45 kt effective shear will reside during the afternoon. While forcing aloft will remain weak, at least isolated storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the corridor of moderate instability. A few supercells and bowing with large hail and downburst winds will be the main threats. Additional storms may develop over northern KS within zone of isentropic ascent north of the stationary front overnight with a threat for mainly isolated hail. ...Northeast States... A progressive shortwave trough will interact with a modest thermodynamic environment during the afternoon, contributing to a few thunderstorms developing along a convergent trough axis. A few of these storms could produce isolated strong wind gusts before diminishing during the evening. ..Dial/Nauslar.. 08/16/2019 Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-005-011-021-031-037-045-059-061-073-085-087-091-099- 103-107-111-121-133-139-149-161-177-197-205-207-209-160640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE COFFEY CRAWFORD DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI NEOSHO OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE MOC011-013-015-021-029-033-037-039-047-049-053-057-059-077-083- 085-095-097-101-105-107-109-131-141-159-165-167-169-177-185-195- 217-225-160640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-045-069-123-157-161-165-160640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE DAWES GARDEN MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX WYC009-015-027-031-160640- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONVERSE GOSHEN NIOBRARA PLATTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160526 CCA
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Corrected order of paragraphs for graphical product.

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of
organization, the system does not appear to have a well-defined
surface center. Slow development of this disturbance is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves westward across the
tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1700 miles west of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
intermittent showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
not conducive for development and tropical cyclone formation is not
anticipated. The low is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to
15 mph for the new couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...near 0 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico in a day or two.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low thereafter and a tropical depression could
form by early next week while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward. Regardless of development, moisture associated
with the system is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible
flash flooding across portions of Central America during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0587 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0586 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-085-087-091-103-107-121-209-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC003-013-021-025-037-047-049-063-087-095-107-165-177-160540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BATES BUCHANAN CALDWELL CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE RAY NEC147-160540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-085-087-091-103-107-121-209-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC003-013-021-025-037-047-049-063-087-095-107-165-177-160540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BATES BUCHANAN CALDWELL CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE RAY NEC147-160540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-085-087-091-103-107-121-209-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC003-013-021-025-037-047-049-063-087-095-107-165-177-160540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BATES BUCHANAN CALDWELL CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE RAY NEC147-160540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-085-087-091-103-107-121-209-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC003-013-021-025-037-047-049-063-087-095-107-165-177-160540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BATES BUCHANAN CALDWELL CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE RAY NEC147-160540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HUT TO 10 ENE SLN TO 25 SE BIE. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-027-031-041-045-059-061-111-113-115-117-127-131-139- 149-161-177-197-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE CLAY COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HUT TO 10 ENE SLN TO 25 SE BIE. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-027-031-041-045-059-061-111-113-115-117-127-131-139- 149-161-177-197-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE CLAY COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HUT TO 10 ENE SLN TO 25 SE BIE. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-027-031-041-045-059-061-111-113-115-117-127-131-139- 149-161-177-197-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE CLAY COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HUT TO 10 ENE SLN TO 25 SE BIE. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-027-031-041-045-059-061-111-113-115-117-127-131-139- 149-161-177-197-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE CLAY COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1754 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 585... FOR EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1754 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Areas affected...eastern Kansas/western Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 585... Valid 160411Z - 160615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 585 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms continue moving across eastern parts of Kansas, within WW 585 (and across western Missouri within WW 584). Southeastward advance of the convection/severe risk will likely require a new/downstream WW issuance into southeast Kansas/southwestern Missouri. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows several severe/supercell storms moving south-southeast across eastern Kansas, in eastern portions of Tornado Watch 585. Other strong/locally severe storms are crossing western Missouri, and are slightly elevated atop a cooler/more stable boundary layer. The eastern Kansas storms remain in proximity to the mixed-layer CAPE axis, and are being fed by a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet. This kinematic/thermodynamic configuration should support a continuation of the intense eastern Kansas storms, which will continue to spread south-southeastward and eventually exit WW 585. With the Missouri storms also beginning to exit WW 584, a new WW will likely be required. This watch will likely replace both existing watches, and will include the ongoing storms, and extend downstream into southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri. ..Goss.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37859633 39089669 40049607 39469462 38749337 37539288 36609294 37139546 37589627 37859633 Read more

MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1753 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0956 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Areas affected...central and southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 160256Z - 160500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storm development over parts of central and eastern Wyoming may continue/increase over the next few hours. A WW could become necessary. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a couple of thunderstorms initiating over parts of central and eastern Wyoming, with a potentially severe storm now indicated near the Natrona/Converse County line. The storms are occurring near a northwest-to-southeast axis of modest instability, within a zone of increasing large-scale ascent ahead of a short-wave trough/vort max moving into northwest Wyoming and adjacent southern Montana. Over the next several hours, CAM solutions vary across this area, but the general consensus is an increase in convective coverage/intensity. Given the CAPE axis, along with moderate mid-level westerly flow atop the low-level easterlies, this increase appears plausible. While the need for a WW remains uncertain at this time, we will continue to monitor convective trends, as it relates to the potential need for a watch. ..Goss/Guyer.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 43350737 43630724 43440588 42930489 42220366 41650291 41180373 41100555 42270714 42590773 43020760 43350737 Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FSD TO 30 NE FSD TO 40 NNW OTG. WW 583 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751 ..NAUSLAR..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC101-160200- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MOODY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more