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Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 181736 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Madeline Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 1200 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 ...MADELINE TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 107.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case during the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 107.1 West. Madeline is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected by this evening, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Madeline is expected to turn away from the coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Weakening is expected to begin on Monday, and Madeline is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Madeline can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local maximum totals of 6 inches today into Monday across mainly coastal portions of the following Mexican States: Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit. These heavy rains may produce localized flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico for the next few days. High surf associated with Madeline will spread northward and begin to affect the coast of the Baja California peninsula today into Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...MADELINE TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 the center of Madeline was located near 18.6, -107.1 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Madeline, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the far eastern portion
of the eastern North Pacific is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for slow development while the system moves slowly
northwestward near or offshore of the coasts of southern Mexico and
Guatemala through the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form south of the southern
or southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves
generally west-northwestward off the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Madeline are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Madeline are issued under WMO
header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds/possible tree damage will be possible on Monday over parts of the Northeast. An isolated storm or two -- accompanied by potential for strong winds and hail -- will be possible near the Canadian border region of northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. ...Synopsis... An amplified flow field aloft will persist across the U.S. on Monday, as a deep upper low lingers off the West Coast, and a corresponding, stout ridge prevails over the central portion of the country. Meanwhile, mean troughing will persist over the Northeast, as a short-wave feature progresses into the broader cyclonic flow field across this area. At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to cross the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day, and then move into the Northeast with time. Meanwhile, a second, weak front is forecast to advance slowly southward across the north-central and northwestern states through the period. ...The Northeast... Widespread/ongoing convection is forecast across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes region and into southern Ontario at the start of the period, ahead of a short-wave mid-level trough crossing the Upper Great Lakes early. The downstream effect of this convection -- and associated cloud cover -- will be a potential hindrance of heating/destabilization into the Northeast. Thus, with weak lapse rates and only modest CAPE anticipated across most of the region, risk for severe storms appears limited/localized. Still, where pockets of heating/destabilization can occur, moderate flow aloft is sufficient to support gusty winds at the surface -- particularly if a short convective line segment or two could evolve. As such, will maintain 5% wind risk across the area for any intensification of ongoing storms -- or perhaps new storm development nearer the cold front, in the wake of the initial convective activity. ...Canadian Border region of the northern Plains... As a mid-level short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across southern portions of the Canadian Prairie Provinces, a cold front will gradually sag southeastward across the northern Plains. Despite rather steep lapse rates aloft, a capping inversion is expected to hinder convective initiation in most areas south of the border. Locally though, ascent focused near the front may allow an updraft or two to breach the cap and become sustained -- aided by ample shear for updraft organization. As such, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind for the late afternoon/early evening time frame, to cover this potential. ..Goss.. 09/18/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/18/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level anticyclone will persist across the south-central U.S. as a mid-level cyclone continues to meander along the West Coast today. Widespread showers and thunderstorms should accompany the West Coast cyclone, mainly over northern and central California, which may help dampen fuels that are currently very dry. Farther east, from the Great Basin to the Intermountain West and parts of the central Plains, modestly dry and occasionally windy surface conditions are expected. Periodic Elevated conditions are possible, but fuels appear too marginally receptive to fire spread to support significant wildfire-growth concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A few intense supercells, capable of very large to giant hail, along with tornadoes, one or two of which may be strong, may evolve into an MCS producing scattered severe wind gusts. This appears most likely across portions of south-central to southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, and west-central Illinois, beginning after 5 PM CDT and continuing through tonight. ...IA/MO/IL... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the western Dakotas will move east across the Upper MS Valley to the south of a deeper shortwave trough shifting from MB to far northwest ON. This evolution will yield an amplifying mid-level jetlet (with 500-mb winds in excess of 50 kts) across southern MN and IA into WI by this evening. A strengthening baroclinic zone across IA, aided by robust differential boundary-layer with low 90s into northwest MO and low 70s behind the cold front in northern IA, will support initial thunderstorm development in the 22-00Z time frame centered on south-central IA as MLCIN wanes. The initial environment will be characterized by weak 0-1 km SRH, but large 0-3 km SRH with further increase in wind speeds through the mid to upper portion of large buoyancy amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates. This setup appears favorable for potentially a few long-lived discrete supercells with the primary hazard being very large to giant hail given the expected hodograph structure. The degree of tornado threat is more uncertain. Low-level southwesterlies will strengthen this evening, but primarily across northern MO and displaced largely south of expected convective development. The greatest tornado threat may evolve with the southern-most supercell which would have uninterrupted inflow and greater 0-1 km SRH near the IA/MO/IL border during the early evening. As such, have shifted the inherited 10 sig tor area south, but this threat appears more conditional than previously forecast. Consensus of latest CAM guidance still suggests potential upscale growth into a small MCS as supercells congeal near/east of the MS River, with the relatively greatest severe wind threat across southeast IA and far northeast MO into west-central IL. How far downstream this threat lasts is more uncertain, as there's a reasonable signal for low-level warm theta-e advection to support potential regenerative supercells on the upshear (northwestward) side of broader-scale convective outflow within the feed of steeper mid-level lapse rates. This may yield a persistent threat for large hail into the early morning before convection weakens further into the overnight. ..Grams/Lyons.. 09/18/2022 Read more

Fire activity on the Chilliwack Complex fires has significantly decreased in the past several days with changing weather conditions and increased moisture across the area. Minimal fire behavior has been observed. However, these lightning-caused fires in the back country will continue to burn until the fire area receives significant moisture or snow. The Chilliwack Complex InciWeb will no longer be updated with current fire information unless there is significant new activity to report. To check on the status of trail and area closures, please call the Chilliwack Complex Fire Information # at (360) 391-7269 or visit the North Cascades National Park Complex website at:  North Cascades National Park (U.S. National Park Service) (nps.gov).There are a number of lightning-caused fires burning in remote, steep and inaccessible terrain in the Stephen Mather Wilderness in the northwest corner of the North Cascades National Park Complex in Washington State. The Chilliwack Complex is made up...

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 181436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 2 30(32) 18(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 181436 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 A large burst of deep convection has developed southwest of Madeline's center during the past few hours, with another broken line of convection oriented parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. The current intensity remains 40 kt as a blend of the latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. Madeline is located along the southwestern periphery of a large mid-tropospheric high, and to the southeast of a deep-layer trough to the west of California. The initial motion is northward, or 350/9 kt, but this steering set up should cause Madeline to gradually turn northwestward later today, and then west-northwestward and westward away from the coast of Mexico from 36 hours and beyond. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, but there is more spread after that, with a few models keeping Madeline too strong and maintaining a northwestward motion. These models are discounted, and the official forecast continues to show a westward bend, following the GFS, ECMWF, and model consensus solutions. Madeline's broad circulation, and continued moderate to strong easterly shear, argue against much, if any, intensification during the next day or so. The official forecast still allows for the possibility for some minimal strengthening during the next 24 hours while Madeline is over warm waters. After 24 hours, the storm is forecast to begin moving across the cold wake left behind by former Hurricane Kay, which is expected to induce weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous prediction, and it now shows Madeline degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, when model simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that all deep convection should have dissipated. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes today and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.5N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 19.5N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 20.4N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 21.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 21.3N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 21.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z 21.1N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 181436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.9W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 330SE 300SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.9W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 107.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.0N 110.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.3N 111.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.5N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 21.1N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 106.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Dryland corn in northeast Nebraska is stunted and yellowing, stricken by the exceptional drought affecting the northeast and also the southwest part of the state. Livestock producers are selling cattle as grass and hay are not growing, and feed is costly. Omaha World-Herald (Neb.), Sept 18, 2022

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 17 18:01:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 17 18:01:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171744
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Lester, located along the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined low
pressure system have shown signs of becoming better organized over
the past few hours. If current trends continue, advisories will be
initiated on a new tropical depression or tropical storm this
afternoon. The low is forecast to meander off the southwestern coast
of Mexico today and then head northward or north-northwestward on
Sunday. A slow turn toward the northwest or west-northwest is then
expected through the middle of next week. For more information on
this system, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

South of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form over the far eastern portion of
the eastern North Pacific basin early next week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development
while the system moves west-northwestward near or offshore the coast
of southern Mexico through mid-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the
southern coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves
generally west-northwestward off the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2022 17:37:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2022 15:31:48 GMT

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 171737 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lester Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 98.5W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal Tropical Storm watches and warnings for the coast of southwestern Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lester was estimated to be inland near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 98.5 West. Lester is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). The depression is forecast to continue moving inland during the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The center of Lester will likely dissipate this afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Lester can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml. RAINFALL: Lester is forecast to produce rainfall totals across the following Mexican states through Sunday: Coastal Michoacan and coastal Guerrero: 8 to 12 inches with maximum totals of 16 inches Central to Western coastal Oaxaca, coastal Colima and coastal Jalisco: 3 to 6 inches with local maximum totals of 12 inches. These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, and this will continue today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 the center of Lester was located near 16.5, -98.5 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe storms is evident across an area centered over central Illinois and into Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Gradual amplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected to continue Sunday, as a low just off the California coast deepens as it retrogrades slowly southwestward. In response to the deepening low, riding centered over Texas is progged to expand northward across the southern Plains and into the central U.S. and the Rockies. A weak cyclonic disturbance is forecast to crest the developing ridge, crossing the northern Plains and then Upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and then pivoting east-southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Mid Ohio Valley overnight. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift across the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes and Mid Mississippi Valley region through the day, and should focus an area of vigorous convection over the corn belt region during the afternoon and overnight. ...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley region... As the upper disturbance crests the ridge, and the weak cold front advances east-southeastward toward the Midwest, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer will support moderate destabilization, with mixed-layer CAPE values peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range through late afternoon. The degree of instability in tandem with ascent focused at low levels in the vicinity of the front will support vigorous storm initiation -- likely in the southeastern Iowa/northeastern Missouri/west-central Illinois area initially. With initial storm mode expected to be isolated, and aided by strengthening/weakly veering flow with height, a few rotating storms are expected to evolve -- accompanied by all-hazards severe potential. With time, storms should tend to congeal -- likely into multiple clusters, with redevelopment of storms that move across some of the same areas possible given increasingly west-northwesterly flow aloft atop a persistent feed of high low-level theta-e air from the southwest. As this upscale growth occurs, risk for damaging winds and hail will likely be maintained into the evening, as convection spreads eastward/southeastward with time. Storms will likely spread into the Mid Ohio Valley region late, though severe potential should wane overnight as the airmass stabilizes diurnally. ..Goss.. 09/17/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry and breezy conditions are ongoing across portions of the Southwest, but fuels remain moist across this region. Therefore, fire weather conditions remain minimal. Elsewhere, light winds preclude widespread fire weather concerns. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/17/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022/ ...Synopsis... A predominantly weak, zonal flow pattern across the CONUS will begin to break down throughout the day as a mid-level trough enters portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern California coast. Consequently, broad 20-25 kt southwesterly flow will overspread much of the West. At the surface, a cold front will move through portions of the Pacific Northwest. In advance of this front, diurnally driven southwesterly winds will develop, perhaps reaching sustained values of 15-20 mph, while RH values fall into the upper teens. These conditions may support a localized threat for elevated fire-weather conditions, mainly across northwest Nevada and far southeast Oregon. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns are expected remain low elsewhere across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN MN AND THE MID-MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes, scattered severe hail, and isolated damaging winds are possible across a portion of northern Minnesota during the late afternoon to early evening. Scattered large hail, damaging winds, and a brief tornado are also possible this evening across a portion of the Mid-Missouri Valley. ...Central to northern MN... A low-amplitude shortwave trough approaching the Upper Red River Valley will move across northern MN into northwest ON by this evening. Partial cloud breaks are evident ahead of this wave mixed with patches of persistent but thinning low-level stratus. The 12Z NAM appears overdone with MLCAPE magnitude given its depiction of mean mixing ratios from 14-15 g/kg later today when upstream 12Z observed soundings sampled only 12-13 g/kg at most. With the EML plume and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates also displaced south of this region, MLCAPE will probably only peak towards 1500 J/kg. Surface-based thunderstorm development will likely be focused in a confined corridor near the evolving frontal wave, currently over northeast SD, as it tracks east-northeast into northern MN. 12Z guidance has generally trended toward a weaker depiction of low-level mass response relative to the 00Z ECMWF, suggesting low-level hodograph curvature may remain small except along the surface warm front. Favorable elongation of the mid to upper hodograph given speed shear with height amid southwest flow should support a few discrete supercells. Severe hail will probably be the primary hazard in coverage, but a couple tornadoes are possible if activity can remain rooted where SRH is enhanced along the west/east-oriented warm front. These threats will likely diminish into late evening as activity spreads towards northeast MN. ...IA to central KS... A weakening MCS persists across southern IA and northwest MO with large-scale outflow analyzed from the I-70 corridor in northeast KS arcing to the northwest in central NE. Air mass recovery will occur across the Mid-MO Valley into this evening, but will clearly be impacted by this morning's activity, which renders uncertainty in just how intense redevelopment this evening will truly be. A hot air mass will be prevalent from the southern High Plains into central KS. Isolated high-based thunderstorms will probably develop along the dryline to triple-point intersection with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail. More prevalent convective redevelopment will occur atop the residual outflow/differential heating zone this evening as a southwesterly low-level jet intensifies. Forecast soundings differ, but given the presence of the upstream EML and limited time for intense boundary-layer heating it appears most probable that convection will be rooted from elevated parcels, especially with time after dusk. This renders low confidence in a greater tornado threat despite low-level hodographs becoming highly enlarged. With weak changes in magnitude in winds with height above 700 mb, a cluster convective mode should dominate. This should subdue the large hail threat and the weak low-level lapse rates deeper into IA should limit the overall severe wind threat with northeast extent as well. Still with upscale growth into a slow-moving MCS and embedded organized updrafts probable this evening, will maintain a cat 2 severe risk delineation. ..Grams/Lyons.. 09/17/2022 Read more