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Drought and heat led to rapid declines in pastures, hay meadows and vegetable crops in most parts of East Texas. Bryan-College Station Eagle (Texas), Aug. 20, 2019

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States, while a few severe storms will be possible across the central high Plains. ...Discussion... The overall outlook remains on track, with respect to prior forecast reasoning. The main changes in this update will be to extend the eastern U.S. SLGT risk a bit farther south across parts of the mid Atlantic region, while removing northern portions of the risk in parts of New England, and to include a small SLGT risk over the Colorado Front Range. In the East, clouds remain dense, and the airmass stable, over northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire, with the primary severe risk likely to remain south of these areas. Meanwhile, with recently issued WW #610 extending southward to the Chesapeake Bay region, SLGT risk is correspondingly being expanded slightly southward. In Colorado, shear remains modest -- particularly with southward extent. However, with moderate destabilization occurring, and thus risk for locally intense cells within a narrow corridor, potential for hail/wind with a few of the strongest storms warrants upgrade to a small SLGT risk in this area. Otherwise, no major changes to the outlook are required at this time. ..Goss.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough will continue to progress east-northeastward from eastern New York toward northern New England, while a warm front slowly spreads northward across southern New England. With broken cloud cover lingering in most areas, modest overall destabilization is expected along/south of the warm front where low-level/deep-layer shear will be maximized. The environment will support the possibility of supercells/bowing segments particularly across southeast New York and southern New England, with severe hail/wind possible along with some tornado risk. Multicells with damaging winds are possible farther south within the warm sector. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1825. ...Kansas/Missouri/far southeast Nebraska to Missouri/Illinois... The remnants of overnight convection continue to decay across the region with cloud cover/outflow influencing an effective boundary across southern portions of Kansas/Missouri. Surface-based thunderstorms should develop/intensify later this afternoon particularly across southern/eastern Kansas into western Missouri within a moist/unstable environment. Relatively weak tropospheric winds may limit overall storm organization, but the strongest storms will pose a damaging wind/severe hail risk. ...Wyoming/Colorado Front Range to central High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the eastern mountains and foothills from northern Wyoming across central/southern Colorado, offering the potential for isolated severe hail and gusts. Activity is expected predominantly in the post-frontal/upslope region where lift is maximized by a combination of upslope flow and diabatic surface heating of the higher terrain (minimizing MLCINH). Mid-level flow is forecast to be modest; however, vertical shear will be stronger than over lower elevations ahead of the front because of the backed boundary-layer winds and relatively extended low-level hodographs. As such, a mixture of supercellular and multicellular structures are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States, while a few severe storms will be possible across the central high Plains. ...Discussion... The overall outlook remains on track, with respect to prior forecast reasoning. The main changes in this update will be to extend the eastern U.S. SLGT risk a bit farther south across parts of the mid Atlantic region, while removing northern portions of the risk in parts of New England, and to include a small SLGT risk over the Colorado Front Range. In the East, clouds remain dense, and the airmass stable, over northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire, with the primary severe risk likely to remain south of these areas. Meanwhile, with recently issued WW #610 extending southward to the Chesapeake Bay region, SLGT risk is correspondingly being expanded slightly southward. In Colorado, shear remains modest -- particularly with southward extent. However, with moderate destabilization occurring, and thus risk for locally intense cells within a narrow corridor, potential for hail/wind with a few of the strongest storms warrants upgrade to a small SLGT risk in this area. Otherwise, no major changes to the outlook are required at this time. ..Goss.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough will continue to progress east-northeastward from eastern New York toward northern New England, while a warm front slowly spreads northward across southern New England. With broken cloud cover lingering in most areas, modest overall destabilization is expected along/south of the warm front where low-level/deep-layer shear will be maximized. The environment will support the possibility of supercells/bowing segments particularly across southeast New York and southern New England, with severe hail/wind possible along with some tornado risk. Multicells with damaging winds are possible farther south within the warm sector. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1825. ...Kansas/Missouri/far southeast Nebraska to Missouri/Illinois... The remnants of overnight convection continue to decay across the region with cloud cover/outflow influencing an effective boundary across southern portions of Kansas/Missouri. Surface-based thunderstorms should develop/intensify later this afternoon particularly across southern/eastern Kansas into western Missouri within a moist/unstable environment. Relatively weak tropospheric winds may limit overall storm organization, but the strongest storms will pose a damaging wind/severe hail risk. ...Wyoming/Colorado Front Range to central High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the eastern mountains and foothills from northern Wyoming across central/southern Colorado, offering the potential for isolated severe hail and gusts. Activity is expected predominantly in the post-frontal/upslope region where lift is maximized by a combination of upslope flow and diabatic surface heating of the higher terrain (minimizing MLCINH). Mid-level flow is forecast to be modest; however, vertical shear will be stronger than over lower elevations ahead of the front because of the backed boundary-layer winds and relatively extended low-level hodographs. As such, a mixture of supercellular and multicellular structures are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States, while a few severe storms will be possible across the central high Plains. ...Discussion... The overall outlook remains on track, with respect to prior forecast reasoning. The main changes in this update will be to extend the eastern U.S. SLGT risk a bit farther south across parts of the mid Atlantic region, while removing northern portions of the risk in parts of New England, and to include a small SLGT risk over the Colorado Front Range. In the East, clouds remain dense, and the airmass stable, over northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire, with the primary severe risk likely to remain south of these areas. Meanwhile, with recently issued WW #610 extending southward to the Chesapeake Bay region, SLGT risk is correspondingly being expanded slightly southward. In Colorado, shear remains modest -- particularly with southward extent. However, with moderate destabilization occurring, and thus risk for locally intense cells within a narrow corridor, potential for hail/wind with a few of the strongest storms warrants upgrade to a small SLGT risk in this area. Otherwise, no major changes to the outlook are required at this time. ..Goss.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough will continue to progress east-northeastward from eastern New York toward northern New England, while a warm front slowly spreads northward across southern New England. With broken cloud cover lingering in most areas, modest overall destabilization is expected along/south of the warm front where low-level/deep-layer shear will be maximized. The environment will support the possibility of supercells/bowing segments particularly across southeast New York and southern New England, with severe hail/wind possible along with some tornado risk. Multicells with damaging winds are possible farther south within the warm sector. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1825. ...Kansas/Missouri/far southeast Nebraska to Missouri/Illinois... The remnants of overnight convection continue to decay across the region with cloud cover/outflow influencing an effective boundary across southern portions of Kansas/Missouri. Surface-based thunderstorms should develop/intensify later this afternoon particularly across southern/eastern Kansas into western Missouri within a moist/unstable environment. Relatively weak tropospheric winds may limit overall storm organization, but the strongest storms will pose a damaging wind/severe hail risk. ...Wyoming/Colorado Front Range to central High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the eastern mountains and foothills from northern Wyoming across central/southern Colorado, offering the potential for isolated severe hail and gusts. Activity is expected predominantly in the post-frontal/upslope region where lift is maximized by a combination of upslope flow and diabatic surface heating of the higher terrain (minimizing MLCINH). Mid-level flow is forecast to be modest; however, vertical shear will be stronger than over lower elevations ahead of the front because of the backed boundary-layer winds and relatively extended low-level hodographs. As such, a mixture of supercellular and multicellular structures are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States, while a few severe storms will be possible across the central high Plains. ...Discussion... The overall outlook remains on track, with respect to prior forecast reasoning. The main changes in this update will be to extend the eastern U.S. SLGT risk a bit farther south across parts of the mid Atlantic region, while removing northern portions of the risk in parts of New England, and to include a small SLGT risk over the Colorado Front Range. In the East, clouds remain dense, and the airmass stable, over northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire, with the primary severe risk likely to remain south of these areas. Meanwhile, with recently issued WW #610 extending southward to the Chesapeake Bay region, SLGT risk is correspondingly being expanded slightly southward. In Colorado, shear remains modest -- particularly with southward extent. However, with moderate destabilization occurring, and thus risk for locally intense cells within a narrow corridor, potential for hail/wind with a few of the strongest storms warrants upgrade to a small SLGT risk in this area. Otherwise, no major changes to the outlook are required at this time. ..Goss.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough will continue to progress east-northeastward from eastern New York toward northern New England, while a warm front slowly spreads northward across southern New England. With broken cloud cover lingering in most areas, modest overall destabilization is expected along/south of the warm front where low-level/deep-layer shear will be maximized. The environment will support the possibility of supercells/bowing segments particularly across southeast New York and southern New England, with severe hail/wind possible along with some tornado risk. Multicells with damaging winds are possible farther south within the warm sector. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1825. ...Kansas/Missouri/far southeast Nebraska to Missouri/Illinois... The remnants of overnight convection continue to decay across the region with cloud cover/outflow influencing an effective boundary across southern portions of Kansas/Missouri. Surface-based thunderstorms should develop/intensify later this afternoon particularly across southern/eastern Kansas into western Missouri within a moist/unstable environment. Relatively weak tropospheric winds may limit overall storm organization, but the strongest storms will pose a damaging wind/severe hail risk. ...Wyoming/Colorado Front Range to central High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the eastern mountains and foothills from northern Wyoming across central/southern Colorado, offering the potential for isolated severe hail and gusts. Activity is expected predominantly in the post-frontal/upslope region where lift is maximized by a combination of upslope flow and diabatic surface heating of the higher terrain (minimizing MLCINH). Mid-level flow is forecast to be modest; however, vertical shear will be stronger than over lower elevations ahead of the front because of the backed boundary-layer winds and relatively extended low-level hodographs. As such, a mixture of supercellular and multicellular structures are possible. Read more

MD 1827 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... FOR HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1827 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...Hudson Valley into southern New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609... Valid 211955Z - 212130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to develop and intensify across the region through 5-7 PM EDT, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps at least some continuing risk for a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...The initial convective band has largely dissipated, but widely scattered, generally discrete vigorous thunderstorms have developed and persisted. This includes one storm which still could take on an increasing supercell structure as it tracks near/northwest of Providence RI during the next hour or so. Convection north of Albany appears to be gradually growing upscale, with potential to produce a swath of damaging winds becoming more apparent. Further intensification and organization appears possible, as it tracks eastward along an effective warm frontal zone near/north of the Massachusetts/Vermont and New Hampshire border area through 21-23Z. Additional new thunderstorm development is ongoing within surface troughing, near/east of the Catskills and Poconos. In the presence of moderate instability and shear, this activity is expected to intensify further and gradually pose increasing potential for strong surface gusts across the lower Hudson Valley into southern New England and Long Island. ..Kerr.. 08/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 43587342 43537203 42807084 41917075 41387192 41027248 40657350 40457445 40657537 41757469 43587342 Read more

Rangelands and pastures in central Texas received some rain, but still needed more, and hay feeding increased. Livestock conditions were deteriorating, due to drought and heat. Producers needed rain to plow small grain seedbeds to prepare for planting. Soil moisture levels were short in nearly all counties in the district. Bryan-College Station Eagle (Texas), Aug. 20, 2019

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0610 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
040- STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-212040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MEC031-212040- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YORK MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 212040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL Read more

MD 1826 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1826 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...The Colorado front range to portions of southeast Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211851Z - 212045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop/intensify through early afternoon and pose a threat for severe hail and brief severe wind gusts. The potential coverage of the threat, and hence the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Strong heating and an approaching weak mid-upper-level low are contributing to deepening cumulus and initial thunderstorm development over the Colorado and Wyoming high terrain. A moist and modifying continental polar air mass has pushed up to the foothills, creating an environment supportive of thunderstorms that varies little with latitude from the Raton Mesa northward to the Laramie Mountains. By early afternoon, forecast soundings suggest this environment will consist of 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE (higher toward the Mountains) with little convective inhibition, moderate straight-line vertical wind shear confined mostly in the 1-4 km layer (supportive of multicell to some transient supercell structures), and DCAPE of 1200-1500 J/kg. Given storm rotation and steep low-to-mid level lapse rates, severe hail is the main threat with these storms, but brief severe wind gusts are possible in the stronger downdrafts. Moderate low-level southeasterly upslope flow combined with relatively weak west-northwesterly to westerly flow at 500-300 mb suggests a slow south to southeast motion to the cells, thus limiting the eastward extent of the threat. The main uncertainty concerning the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is the coverage of the hail/wind threat. The coverage of storms that mature and move into the foothills will be monitored in the next hour or so to better determine if a Watch will be needed. ..Coniglio/Guyer.. 08/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 42860625 42760567 41960518 40150447 39820440 38480387 37790355 37460341 37110354 37050408 37090466 37430506 38260552 39540598 40280617 41270651 42560648 42860625 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to ongoing elevated lines based on 12Z high resolution forecast guidance. However, no significant changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeast across the northern Intermountain West tomorrow. An associated surface cold front will continue to move south and east into the Great Basin and through much of the northern Rockies and northern California. With a pre-frontal surface pressure trough running parallel and ahead of the cold front, the surface pressure gradient will strengthen across the Intermountain West along and ahead of the cold front. Elevated conditions are expected from northern Arizona/southern Nevada stretching northeastward into central Wyoming along/ahead of the surface cold front. Southwest-westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of 8-20% are likely to develop during tomorrow afternoon and evening across this area. High clouds may drift into northern Arizona, which could limit the southern extent of the current elevated area. Elevated conditions are also likely to develop across central/eastern portions of the Snake River Plain and vicinity tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will have passed through the area, but daytime heating should warm temperatures and mix the boundary layer enough to result in west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 15-20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to ongoing elevated lines based on 12Z high resolution forecast guidance. However, no significant changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeast across the northern Intermountain West tomorrow. An associated surface cold front will continue to move south and east into the Great Basin and through much of the northern Rockies and northern California. With a pre-frontal surface pressure trough running parallel and ahead of the cold front, the surface pressure gradient will strengthen across the Intermountain West along and ahead of the cold front. Elevated conditions are expected from northern Arizona/southern Nevada stretching northeastward into central Wyoming along/ahead of the surface cold front. Southwest-westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of 8-20% are likely to develop during tomorrow afternoon and evening across this area. High clouds may drift into northern Arizona, which could limit the southern extent of the current elevated area. Elevated conditions are also likely to develop across central/eastern portions of the Snake River Plain and vicinity tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will have passed through the area, but daytime heating should warm temperatures and mix the boundary layer enough to result in west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 15-20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to ongoing elevated lines based on 12Z high resolution forecast guidance. However, no significant changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeast across the northern Intermountain West tomorrow. An associated surface cold front will continue to move south and east into the Great Basin and through much of the northern Rockies and northern California. With a pre-frontal surface pressure trough running parallel and ahead of the cold front, the surface pressure gradient will strengthen across the Intermountain West along and ahead of the cold front. Elevated conditions are expected from northern Arizona/southern Nevada stretching northeastward into central Wyoming along/ahead of the surface cold front. Southwest-westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of 8-20% are likely to develop during tomorrow afternoon and evening across this area. High clouds may drift into northern Arizona, which could limit the southern extent of the current elevated area. Elevated conditions are also likely to develop across central/eastern portions of the Snake River Plain and vicinity tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will have passed through the area, but daytime heating should warm temperatures and mix the boundary layer enough to result in west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 15-20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to ongoing elevated lines based on 12Z high resolution forecast guidance. However, no significant changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeast across the northern Intermountain West tomorrow. An associated surface cold front will continue to move south and east into the Great Basin and through much of the northern Rockies and northern California. With a pre-frontal surface pressure trough running parallel and ahead of the cold front, the surface pressure gradient will strengthen across the Intermountain West along and ahead of the cold front. Elevated conditions are expected from northern Arizona/southern Nevada stretching northeastward into central Wyoming along/ahead of the surface cold front. Southwest-westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of 8-20% are likely to develop during tomorrow afternoon and evening across this area. High clouds may drift into northern Arizona, which could limit the southern extent of the current elevated area. Elevated conditions are also likely to develop across central/eastern portions of the Snake River Plain and vicinity tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will have passed through the area, but daytime heating should warm temperatures and mix the boundary layer enough to result in west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 15-20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0609 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Bozeman commissioners approved a water rate increase with the goal of reducing waste during drought. Additional fees will also be implemented if a drought is declared to curb water use. The more water used and the higher the drought stage, the higher water rates will be. Bozeman Daily Chronicle (Mont.), Aug. 21, 2019

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Ten-E, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 21 17:31:01 UTC 2019.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...AND FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THEN WESTWARD TO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible Thursday from Oklahoma eastward across the Ohio Valley and into parts of New England. Meanwhile, hail or wind, occasionally reaching severe levels, will also be possible over the central and northern High Plains area. ...Synopsis... Weak flow aloft is progged across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, while a part of troughs will cross Canada and the adjacent northern U.S. through the period. The more western of these features is expected to cross the northern Intermountain region, as an accompanying surface cold front crosses Montana/Wyoming during the afternoon and evening. Farther east, a trough crossing the Great Lakes region will also be accompanying by a cold front, that is forecast to shift eastward across the Northeast, while sagging more slowly southward across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into Oklahoma. Both of the troughs, and the associated surface systems, will contribute to convective activity, and accompanying, low-probability severe potential, through the period. ...Parts of New England southwest across the Ohio Valley area to Oklahoma... Modest destabilization is forecast near and ahead of a surface cold front progged to stretch from New England southwestward across the Ohio Valley to Oklahoma during the afternoon, as the parent upper trough slowly advances across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region. Scattered to isolated afternoon storm development is expected near the boundary, and southward across the warm sector. While any warm-sector storm could produce briefly/locally gusty winds, weak flow will substantially limit storm organization/longevity. Farther north however, nearer the front, an enhanced belt of cyclonic westerlies surrounding the upper trough will be sufficient to support longer-lived storms, and possibly a few quick-moving clusters of cells. As such, local risk for damaging wind gusts appears sufficient across a broad region within the the frontal zone to warrant continuation of 5% wind/MRGL risk. The risk are is being expanded northeastward across the mid Atlantic region and into parts of New England, where lesser CAPE, but stronger flow aloft, is expected. ...Portions of the northern and central high Plains... Afternoon heating will result in moderate destabilization across the high Plains near the combination lee trough/remnant cold front, with lesser destabilization to occur westward into central Montana ahead of the next/advancing cold front. Both of these fronts/troughs should focus afternoon/evening convective activity, with some clustering of convection possible over the high Plains that may locally progress eastward into lower-elevation areas. While mid-level westerly flow will remain modest across much of the area -- particularly the central high Plains, low-level southeasterlies east of the lee trough/remnant front will help to enhance the available shear, and thus a few stronger storms/storm clusters -- capable of locally gusty winds and/or hail -- are expected to evolve. Risk will primarily exist during the late afternoon and evening hours, diminishing overnight as the boundary layer stabilizes. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Goss.. 08/21/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...AND FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THEN WESTWARD TO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible Thursday from Oklahoma eastward across the Ohio Valley and into parts of New England. Meanwhile, hail or wind, occasionally reaching severe levels, will also be possible over the central and northern High Plains area. ...Synopsis... Weak flow aloft is progged across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, while a part of troughs will cross Canada and the adjacent northern U.S. through the period. The more western of these features is expected to cross the northern Intermountain region, as an accompanying surface cold front crosses Montana/Wyoming during the afternoon and evening. Farther east, a trough crossing the Great Lakes region will also be accompanying by a cold front, that is forecast to shift eastward across the Northeast, while sagging more slowly southward across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into Oklahoma. Both of the troughs, and the associated surface systems, will contribute to convective activity, and accompanying, low-probability severe potential, through the period. ...Parts of New England southwest across the Ohio Valley area to Oklahoma... Modest destabilization is forecast near and ahead of a surface cold front progged to stretch from New England southwestward across the Ohio Valley to Oklahoma during the afternoon, as the parent upper trough slowly advances across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region. Scattered to isolated afternoon storm development is expected near the boundary, and southward across the warm sector. While any warm-sector storm could produce briefly/locally gusty winds, weak flow will substantially limit storm organization/longevity. Farther north however, nearer the front, an enhanced belt of cyclonic westerlies surrounding the upper trough will be sufficient to support longer-lived storms, and possibly a few quick-moving clusters of cells. As such, local risk for damaging wind gusts appears sufficient across a broad region within the the frontal zone to warrant continuation of 5% wind/MRGL risk. The risk are is being expanded northeastward across the mid Atlantic region and into parts of New England, where lesser CAPE, but stronger flow aloft, is expected. ...Portions of the northern and central high Plains... Afternoon heating will result in moderate destabilization across the high Plains near the combination lee trough/remnant cold front, with lesser destabilization to occur westward into central Montana ahead of the next/advancing cold front. Both of these fronts/troughs should focus afternoon/evening convective activity, with some clustering of convection possible over the high Plains that may locally progress eastward into lower-elevation areas. While mid-level westerly flow will remain modest across much of the area -- particularly the central high Plains, low-level southeasterlies east of the lee trough/remnant front will help to enhance the available shear, and thus a few stronger storms/storm clusters -- capable of locally gusty winds and/or hail -- are expected to evolve. Risk will primarily exist during the late afternoon and evening hours, diminishing overnight as the boundary layer stabilizes. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Goss.. 08/21/2019 Read more