Aggregator

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 221445 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 56(58) 10(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 12(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221445 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.4W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.4W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.1N 109.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.4N 110.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.4N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N 115.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.8N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 108.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 ...SMALL NEWTON MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 108.4W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 108.4 West. Newton is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Newton is forecast to maintain its strength for a day followed by gradually weakening through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...SMALL NEWTON MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 the center of Newton was located near 17.9, -108.4 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

As Lake Isabella in Central California drops to 8% capacity, the remnants of Whiskey Flat have reappeared. Dating back to the Gold Rush era, the town was witness to gold discoveries, rivalries and much Old West history. SFGate (San Francisco, Calif.), Sept 6, 2022

Experts at Utah State University, the Turfgrass Water Conservation Alliance and Salt Lake City Public Utilities worked together to create a special blend of grasses that use less water and still looks attractive. The utilities department was selling bags of the blend of more water-friendly varieties of bluegrass and fescue to its customers for $8.50 and sold out as demand was high. One bag of “SLC Turf Trade” covers about 1,000 square feet. KSTU-FOX 13 (Salt Lake City, Utah), Sept 15, 2022

Connecticut apples are smaller, but sweeter this year, as noted by an orchard owner in Hartford. WFSB-TV CBS Channel 3 (Hartford, Ct.), Sept 20, 2022

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 21 18:05:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211754
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure just offshore of southwestern Mexico have changed little
in organization today. A short-lived tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or so before the system moves over
cooler waters and into a drier environment. This system is expected
to move west-northwestward just south of southwestern Mexico over
the next day or so, and then move away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Wegman/Carbin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging thunderstorm gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the Mid Atlantic southwestward into North Carolina. ...Mid-Atlantic states into NC... A large-scale mid-level trough initially over the Great Lakes will move east-southeast during the period and reach the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a cold front over the Appalachians Thursday morning will push southeast during the day and reach the southern portion of the Delmarva southwestward into the Carolina Piedmont by peak heating. Weak to moderate buoyancy (750-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast ahead of the front from the Delmarva southwest to the Research Triangle. Although 0-2 km lapse rates will steepen (8 deg C/km) through the early to mid afternoon, mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. Around 30-kt effective shear will probably support a few organized multicells/line segments where the primary hazard will be locally damaging gusts. This activity will likely weaken by early evening as instability wanes. ...Southeast New England... Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Thursday morning from the lower Hudson Valley northeastward into southern ME. Considerable cloud cover will likely encompass much of this region ahead of the front. However, relatively moist low levels could lead to weak destabilization during the morning. Forecast soundings show a strong wind profile but uncertainty remains whether a few surface-based storms will develop in the RI and southeast MA vicinity before the front moves offshore. Will defer the inclusion of low-severe probabilities for the time being. Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are forecast across a large part of the Four Corners northward into the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains. ..Smith.. 09/21/2022 Read more

MD 1812 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OH...NORTHWEST PA...FAR SOUTHWEST NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1812 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast OH...Northwest PA...Far Southwest NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211731Z - 211930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and/or damaging gusts may occur from north-central/northeast OH into southwest NY this afternoon. Uncertainty regarding severe thunderstorm coverage currently merits low watch probabilities. DISCUSSION...A large area of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to move eastward/southeastward across southwestern Ontario and Lake Erie. Current motion of the leading edge of this area is estimated at 35-40 kt, which brings it to the eastern shore of Lake Erie around 18Z. Cloud cover associated with this precipitation has already spread into areas in the lee of Lake Erie, which is tempering diurnal heating. Current observations show temperatures in the mid 70s across southwest NY, increasing into the low 80s in north-central OH. Dewpoints increase from the mid 60s across southwest NY to the upper 60s across north-central OH. These surface conditions are precluding the erosion of the convective inhibition in place, particularly across western PA and southwest NY. Thunderstorm development is still expected as this area of ascent reaches the lee of Lake Erie, but, given the low-level stability still in place, most of these storm will likely be elevated. The best chance of surface-based storms is back across north-central/northeast OH. Elevated character to most of the storms should limit the overall coverage, with isolated hail as the most likely risk. A few strong gusts could also occur, particularly if any bowing line segments are able to develop/mature. ..Mosier/Grams.. 09/21/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41398287 41478180 42197992 42647897 42027832 41197951 40888078 40728290 41398287 Read more

MD 1811 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UTAH AND EASTERN NEVADA
Mesoscale Discussion 1811 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Areas affected...portions of western and central Utah and eastern Nevada Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211726Z - 211930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Ahead of a deep upper low, scattered thunderstorm development/ organization is expected early this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts, and hail will be possible with strong to severe storms later this afternoon. Conditions are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Evident on regional water vapor imagery, a deep upper low and 70-80 kt cyclonically curved jet streak over the western Great Basin were supporting broad diffluence and lift across much of the intermountain West. With the commencement of diurnal heating, increasingly agitated cumulus was noted on area visible imagery across the higher terrain of eastern NV and western UT. Further destabilization is expected as temperatures warm and as surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F are transported northward from the Southwest. While not overly steep, 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates were observed east of the cold core center, aiding in the development of weak buoyancy (MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). As ascent increases through the late morning and early afternoon, scattered thunderstorms should develop and detach from the higher terrain before spreading north/northeastward. Favorable deep-layer shear (0-6 km 50-60 kt) will likely support a mix of cluster and more discrete storms with some mid-level storm rotation possible. Low-level inverted-v structures and strong mid-level flow will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts, some of which could be significant with stronger downdrafts able to develop. Some severe hail may also be possible given elongated upper-level hodographs and cool mid-level temperatures, though the weaker buoyancy casts some uncertainty on updraft strength. Latest hi-res guidance and observations suggest storm development may occur as early as 18z across portions of southwestern UT, closest to the strongest ascent and orographic lift. Storms should quickly spread north/northeast into western and central UT with a severe risk through this afternoon and into the evening. With scattered storm coverage and greater potential for organization expected, conditions are being monitored for a possible weather watch. ..Lyons/Grams.. 09/21/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN... LAT...LON 37241374 37231399 37501415 38381429 39441450 39911459 40421484 40981517 41341539 41701526 41921489 41981418 41981283 41861234 41571193 41181179 40741168 39281221 37811286 37461319 37241374 Read more

The Washburn Fire is 100% contained. Some interior smokes may be visible. Crews continue to patrol regularly. Tip Line: If you were near the Mariposa Grove on July 7, 2022, please contact NPS Investigative Services Branch (ISB).     Call/Text: (888) 653-0009               Email: nps_isb@nps.gov           Online: www.nps.gov/orgs/1563/submit-a-tip.htmHistory and Ecology of Mariposa Grove / Giant Sequoias: Located in the southern portion of Yosemite, the Mariposa Grove of Giant Sequoias is the largest sequoia grove in Yosemite and is home to over 500 mature giant sequoias. The national park idea is rooted in the Mariposa Grove. In 1864 President Lincoln signed legislation protecting the Mariposa Grove and Yosemite Valley for "public use, resort, and recreation."  For the first time in our nation's history, the federal government set aside scenic natural areas to be protected for the benefit of future generations. Later added to Yosemite National Park in...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia Basin this afternoon. See details in previous discussion below. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 09/21/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0520 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid/upper-level low will track northeastward from northern CA into the Intermountain West, while an expansive large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Plains. At the same time, a weak surface low will evolve northward across the northern Great Basin, while surface ridging expands southward across the northern and central Plains behind a southward-advancing cold front. ...Columbia Basin... Between the surface ridging over the northern/central Plains and surface low over the northern Great Basin, an enhanced pressure gradient and breezy northeasterly surface winds will develop east of the Cascades in WA -- particularly over the Columbia Basin. Here, 15-20 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 30 mph) will overlap 15-20 percent minimum RH, resulting in elevated fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fuels over the area. ...Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Preceding the mid/upper-level low, strengthening large-scale ascent amid a plume of enhanced midlevel moisture will support scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies. Initially, a deeply mixed boundary layer beneath the midlevel moisture will yield inverted-V thermodynamic profiles supportive of dry thunderstorms -- aided by fast southwesterly storm motions. However, strengthening large-scale ascent should favor quick upscale growth and increasing precipitation across the area. Therefore, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible in the early stages of storm development, though the threat appears too brief for Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Strong to severe outflow winds could also accompany the stronger storms, especially over southern ID. For details on the severe weather threat, see the Day 1 Convective Outlook. ...Northern and Central Plains... Breezy northerly surface winds are expected across the northern and central Plains behind the southward-advancing cold front. With that said, cool temperatures within the post-frontal airmass will temper RH reductions where the strongest surface winds are expected -- generally mitigating the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER GREAT LAKES...UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE NORTHEAST GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of severe hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are expected into this evening across the Upper Ohio River Valley and the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts are also possible across portions of the northeast Great Basin this afternoon. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley... Clusters of elevated strong storms are ongoing across southeast Lower MI into southwest ON within a corridor of 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection and leading mid-level height falls attendant to a positive-tilt shortwave trough centered on northern ON. Consensus of 12Z CAM guidance, including recent HRRR runs, have failed to simulate this activity. The HRW-NSSL and NAM-Nest have some semblance of these storms and appear reasonable with indicating movement to the southeast downstream of the Lake Erie area through the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by the 12Z DTX sounding are already in place downstream with an EML expected to spread at least into western portions of PA/NY. These elevated clusters should build into the destabilizing boundary layer, especially across northern OH given warmer and more moist conditions advecting from the west. It's plausible that clusters may still hold onto a slightly elevated character with eastern extent in NY/PA owing to the lack of surface-based instability at this time and relatively early convective evolution for the main severe scenario. This setup suggests the primary severe threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is more uncertain and will likely be confined to a corridor within the surface-based instability gradient where low-level hodographs can remain enlarged and semi-discrete supercell structures can develop within the southeast-moving clusters. This still appears most probable in the eastern OH/western PA vicinity later this afternoon. ...Eastern/northern Great Basin and the Interior West... A deep mid/upper trough centered on the northern CA vicinity will pivot northeast into the Interior Northwest through tonight. Broad large-scale ascent ahead of this trough in conjunction with the northern extent of a Gulf of CA moisture plume should aid in an arc of thunderstorm development this afternoon from western UT across southern ID. While buoyancy will be scant with northern extent, elongated mid to upper-level hodographs will favor potential for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, focused on northwest UT to south-central ID. Strong to isolated severe wind gusts along with isolated/marginally severe hail are the expected hazards. Regenerative convection will likely persist this evening into tonight but the overall severe threat will diminish with onset of nocturnal surface cooling. ..Grams/Lyons.. 09/21/2022 Read more

Firefighters continue to make progress on the Eagle Creek Fire, increasing the estimated containment to 80%. Estimated acres remains at 7,225.  The Lions Campground and Sandy Creek Campground remain closed until further notice. Emergency and local traffic only on Beaver Creek Road above Upper Bear Paw

Minnehaha Falls in Minneapolis is flowing at a mere trickle as drought to the disappointment of visitors who traveled to see the landmark. This is the second time this summer that the falls went dry. During drought in 1964 when President Lyndon B. Johnson was to visit Minnehaha Falls, upstream hydrants were opened to provide water for the falls. CBS Minnesota (Minneapolis), Sept 19, 2022

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers announced that the flow from Fort Peck Dam would be reduced from 7,800 cubic feet per second to 4,000 cfs. The agency later announced that the flow reduction would take place at the end of September to allow farmers downstream more water. Keeping the water release higher through September would slightly reduce power generation capacity through the upcoming winter and slightly lower the Fort Peck Lake pool at the beginning of the 2023 runoff season, but would have only minimal impacts in the upper basin, and no impacts on the Missouri River mainstem reservoir system’s overall ability to meet its authorized purposes given the change will not impact total system storage, according to John Remus, chief of the Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. Montana Standard (Butte, Mont.), Sept. 19, 2022

Boston and other Massachusetts towns have had far fewer untreated sewage discharges this summer amid drought than last summer when heavy rains were more frequent. Between the end of June 2022 and Sept. 19, there were just two discharges, compared to the summer of 2021 when the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority reported dozens of discharges amounting to millions of gallons of discharge. Boston Herald (Mass.), Sept. 20, 2022

The monsoon brought ample rain, easing drought in New Mexico this summer. While the moisture sounds beneficial, windstorms and heavy rain unfortunately damaged the chile, reducing the crop by 35% for one chile grower in the Middle Rio Grande Valley. Rain encouraged weed growth, and wet fields did not always allow workers in to pull the weeds. Santa Fe New Mexican, Sept 17, 2022