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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, in association with Hurricane Ian. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will continue moving slowly eastward across eastern NOAM Wednesday, while a second trough -- initially over the northeastern Pacific -- shifts inland across southern British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during the second half of the period. In between, ridging will prevail across the U.S. Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move slowly across the Pacific Northwest, while high pressure prevails over the central and much of the eastern portions of the country. The main exception will be over the Southeast, where a quasistationary front will become more ill-defined, as Hurricane Ian shifts out of the eastern Gulf and into Florida through the end of the period. ...Florida Peninsula... While track uncertainties with respect to Ian (see the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center) persist, risk for a few tornadoes remains evident as the storm approaches -- and eventually moves into -- the Florida Peninsula. As low-level flow intensifies with time, shear in the eastern half of the circulation will support rotating updrafts within banded convection. As such, brief tornadoes will be possible for an extended period of time. At this time, with the storm track continuing to trend more eastward, future adjustments to northern fringes of the risk area will likely be required. ..Goss.. 09/27/2022 Read more

906
ABPZ20 KNHC 271730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure located south of the southern coast of
Mexico continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the end of this week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward off the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
The remnants of Newton continue to produce disorganized bursts of
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next couple of days as it moves generally westward
over the western portion of the East Pacific basin. By late this
week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FL INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes are possible across the Florida Keys and south Florida today, and may spread into parts of central Florida overnight with Hurricane Ian. ...South FL and the Keys through tonight... Major Hurricane Ian will move northward or north-northeastward through tonight across the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico, as rain bands east-through-northeast of the center continue to overspread south FL and the Keys. Some expansion of the stronger wind field, and resultant stronger vertical shear (effective SRH of 200-400 m2/s2), will occur through tonight as Ian continues to deepen (see latest NHC advisories for additional information). Widespread rain across south FL has held surface temperatures in the mid 70s through the morning with minimal surface-based buoyancy. However, some cloud breaks and modest surface heating is underway across the Keys, and should develop slowly inland from the southeast FL coast through the afternoon. Likewise, slightly higher boundary-layer dewpoints (>76 F) will spread inland, with sufficient destabilization to support supercells moving inland. Thus, the threat for tornadoes is expected to gradually increase from south-to-north later this afternoon/evening, and persist into the overnight hours. Please see SPC MD 1833 for additional details. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/27/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed for both the Gulf Coast and southern Oregon regions. Morning water vapor imagery shows broad subsidence across the Southeast, which will maintain warm, dry conditions today as RH values continue to fall into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds near 15 mph are expected by early afternoon, and gusts up to 20-25 mph will support periods of critical fire weather conditions. Across northern CA/southern OR, GOES Derived Winds is estimating mid-level winds near 20-25 mph, which is in line with latest guidance and supports the ongoing forecast (see previous discussion below). ...Southwest to Central Oklahoma... A few surface stations are reporting elevated fire weather conditions across western OK ahead of a weak surface trough/cold front. Boundary layer winds are expected to weaken through the day across the region, which will limit the overall fire weather potential despite receptive fuels. However, periods of patchy elevated conditions are possible during the 16-21 UTC period roughly across the Altus, OK to Watonga, OK region. ..Moore.. 09/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022/ ...Synopsis... An amplified pattern aloft featuring a broad trough in the east, a large ridge over the central U.S., and a shortwave trough over the Northwest will be in place today. At the surface, a trough will develop in the lee of the Cascades while a surface high will build into the upper Midwest. The approach of Hurricane Ian along the western Florida coast will strengthen the surface pressure gradient for the central Gulf Coast states. ...South-central Oregon... Afternoon winds will reach 15-20 mph as the surface trough deepens in the Columbia Basin. Some increase in high cloud cover is possible and may impact RH reductions in parts of the region. However, at least some areas of 15-20% appear possible during the afternoon. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... The region will be situated in a dry, post-frontal airmass. The combinations of a building surface high to the north and the approach of Ian to the southeast should promote a modest increase in surface winds. In general, winds around 15 mph are expected with locally higher sustained speeds and gusts. Dry fuels and RH that will likely fall to near 25% or lower will support an increase in fire weather concerns during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 544 TORNADO FL CW 271255Z - 272100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 544 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 855 AM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Hurricane Ian will continue to move north-northeastward and likely further intensify as per the National Hurricane Center. A very moist airmass and strengthening low-level shear will support an increasing tornado potential from the Florida Keys across the southern Peninsula through the afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Key West FL to 20 miles east southeast of Miami FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 14020. ...Guyer Read more

Most volunteer fire departments in Wichita County were in favor of reestablishing a burn ban, which will take effect at midnight on Sept. 30. Burn bans have been in effect intermittently throughout 2022, with the most recent one being lifted on Aug. 26. Wichita Falls Times Record News (Texas), Sept 26, 2022

Oklahoma ranchers were selling cattle herds, the cost of shipping hay has tripled in some cases, and dry ponds were common as drought persists, constituting a crisis for the agriculture industry. Water for livestock was in short supply forcing ranchers to haul it in. Many ranchers, lacking food and water for their livestock, have been selling cattle, reducing the state’s cattle population by about 12%, according to the executive vice president of the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association. Many producers do not have enough hay to get through the winter, so sell-offs are likely to continue. It is possible that another large livestock selloff could take place in December and January. The Oklahoma Legislature allocated $3 million for drought relief this year, but exactly how the money would be spend had not been determined. An emergency drought commission meeting was held a week ago. Discussion included assisting ranchers with building a new water supply or drilling wells. Helping ranchers clean out dry ponds was another idea, as well as powering water pumps with solar panels rather than electrical lines. For many ranchers, the present drought could likely end their operations, particularly if they sell their entire herd. The Oklahoman (Oklahoma City), Sept 25, 2022

Many East Texas counties lifted their burn bans a month ago, but recent lack of rain, low humidity and high winds brought more fire activity. East Texans were urged to be very careful when engaging in activities that could inadvertently ignite a wildfire, given the dry conditions. KLTV-TV ABC 7 (Tyler, Texas), Sept 27, 2022

The Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism issued public fish salvage orders for Ellis City Lake in Ellis County, Warren Stone Lake in Rush County, Hodgeman State Fishing Lake in Hodgeman County and Goodman State Fishing Lake in Ness County. People with fishing licenses are free to catch the fish by legal methods and also by hand, dip net or seine. About 250 largemouth bass, some flathead catfish, channel catfish, and a few crappie were relocated from Ellis City Lake to Cedar Bluff State Park in Trego County. KSN-TV News 3 (Wichita, Kan.), Sept 27, 2022 A public fish salvage began for Ellis City Lake on Sept. 26, due to drought and minimal inflow. The public was welcome to catch the fish by legal methods, as well as by hand, dip net or seine. KAKE ABC 10 Wichita (Kan.), Sept 27, 2022

Fire resources continue with suppression repair activities on the Barnes Fire. Hazard tree mitigation continues to reduce the risks of hazard trees to firefighters and the public. Dozers and other heavy equipment will repair roads and trails to limit erosion and improve access. The incident is remaining in its  current footprint with 5,843 acres buned and 99% contained. Critical fire weather is expected over the incident area in the coming days, however this will be our final update unless significant changes occur on the

Extreme drought in northeastern Oklahoma has devastated crops and pastures and dried up ponds. One rancher described how conditions have forced him to move his cattle as Bermuda grass and ponds were dry. He plans to move his cattle to another pasture with a deeper pond in ten days. Water quality has also been an issue. One pond turned green. Another livestock producer in Vera had to sell about 150 head of cattle and lost his 130-acre soybean crop. Ponds for cattle were low and may not have enough water to get through the winter. Soil moisture is low to nonexistent for planting winter wheat. FOX 23 News (Tulsa, Okla.), Sept 23, 2022

The Boulder Mountain Fire was detected on Wednesday August 31, 2022 at approximately 8:30pm. The fire is located in the Tacoma Creek and Boulder Mountain area, 9 miles northwest of Cusick, Washington. The fire is burning on Federal, State, and Private land. The terrain is difficult and the fire is burning in heavy timber, slash, and beetle infested

The Boulder Lake Fire was reported on Sept. 3, 2022, and is burning primarily in the Rattlesnake Wilderness, east of Boulder Lake on the Missoula Ranger District. A Point-Zone Protection strategy is being utilized in the Wilderness. This strategy protects highly valued resources (such as buildings, infrastructure, or recreational assets) from the fire, utilizing various natural and geographic features (past wildfires, trails, rock, and cliff bands) while protecting other values consistent with the Rattlesnake Wilderness. Additionally, fire managers will be utilizing a confine and contain suppression strategy to engage the eastern and southeastern flanks of the fire outside of the Wilderness. Containment opportunities may include existing burn scars, natural barriers, and road systems. Firefighters are patrolling and monitoring the fire via air and from vantage points on the ground and utilizing fuel moisture measurements, field weather observations, and fire models to inform the...

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the southern
coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of this week while the system moves
generally westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of Florida Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association with Hurricane Ian. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing will continue over eastern NOAM Tuesday, while a second low/trough over the northeastern Pacific gradually approaches the Pacific Northwest. In between, expansive ridging will extend from Texas and the Desert Southwest northward across the Rockies and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. At the surface, a cold front will remain roughly in place from the southeastern U.S. Atlantic Coast, west-southwestward along the Gulf Coast vicinity. To the south, Hurricane Ian is progged to be shifting slowly northward into/across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the period. Please refer to the latest forecasts regarding Ian from the National Hurricane Center. ...Florida Peninsula... As Ian moves slowly northward, the low-level flow across the Florida Peninsula south of the aforementioned cold front -- particularly across west-central and southwestern Florida -- will increase with time. Widespread convection surrounding Ian will overspread the area from south to north, with embedded cellular convection within bands surrounding the center of circulation. As the inland wind field gradually strengthens, potential for rotating cells will likewise increase, along with associated tornado potential. This risk may increase through the afternoon, and continue into the overnight hours as the storm gradually shifts northward. ..Goss.. 09/26/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 26 17:35:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1830 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NY...VT...AND NH
Mesoscale Discussion 1830 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NY...VT...and NH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261716Z - 262015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...The risk of strong to locally damaging gusts will increase this afternoon (around 18-22Z) as storms spread eastward from eastern NY across New England. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loops reveal the nose of a southwesterly mid/upper-level jet streak impinging on NY, where regional VWP data shows 40-50 kt of midlevel flow. As the left exit region of this jet streak continues overspreading eastern NY and New England -- in conjunction with strengthening DCVA downstream of the midlevel trough -- convection will gradually increase in coverage as it spreads eastward along a weak low-level confluence axis this afternoon. Within the pre-convective environment, filtered diurnal heating amid middle 50s boundary-layer dewpoints, coupled with midlevel adiabatic cooling/steepening midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to weakly unstable surface-based inflow. Deep/enhanced south-southwesterly flow will yield a long/straight hodograph (35-45 kt of effective shear), supportive of loosely organized bands or clusters of storms -- especially in the 18-22Z time frame. The primary concern with this activity will be strong to locally damaging gusts with the more organized bands/clusters, and small hail will also be possible. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/26/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 42667450 43537493 44177493 44617479 44847454 45077395 45057237 45037156 44707139 43857140 43197169 42897218 42727306 42457386 42667450 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVERNIGHT IN THE FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from central/northern New York into northern New England. The potential for a tornado or two will increase by late tonight/early Tuesday across the Florida Keys in association with Hurricane Ian. ...Central/northern NY to northern New England this afternoon... Within a deep midlevel trough over the Great Lakes, an embedded speed max will eject quickly northeastward from western NY toward northern New England by late afternoon/evening. A band of ascent, coincident with a reinforcing cold frontal surge, will help focus low-topped thunderstorms early this afternoon in central/northern NY and continuing through this evening across northern New England. Weak surface-based buoyancy will result from surface heating in cloud breaks and residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, in an environment with 40-50 kt south-southwesterly midlevel flow and straight hodographs. The net result will be the potential for strong gusts and isolated wind damage with downward momentum transfer in the stronger storms this afternoon/evening. ...FL Keys tonight through early Tuesday... Hurricane Ian is expected to undergo rapid intensification and reach the western tip of Cuba as a major hurricane by early Tuesday morning (please refer to the latest updates from NHC). The deepening cyclone, expanding wind field, and increasingly banded convective structures will result in a gradual increase in the threat for supercells and a tornado or two across the Keys overnight and into Tuesday morning. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/26/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited for today. Periodic elevated conditions remain possible across parts of eastern OK/TX and the Southeast, as well as across portions of the Midwest where winds may gust up to 30 mph with RH values near 30%. However, marginal fuel status will modulate the overall fire weather potential. ..Moore.. 09/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022/ ...Synopsis... A fairly amplified upper-level pattern will exist across the CONUS today. Large-scale ridging in the west will slowly shift eastward as a broad trough in the east makes similar eastward progress. At the surface, the cold front will move offshore into the Gulf and the Atlantic. A dry airmass will reside within much of the central and western U.S. A diminishing surface pressure gradient will lead to weak winds over a broad area. However, locally elevated conditions are possible. The most likely areas for these conditions will be eastern OK/TX into parts of the Southeast. Rainfall has been minimal, particularly in OK/TX, and fuels will support fire spread. RH of 20-30% is possible, though winds may struggle to reach 15 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

All safety closures associated with the Rodgers fire have been lifted. There is no recent fire history in the area around the Rodgers Fire. The fire is burning in mixed conifer and red fir litter, and dead and down logsFor information on the Red Fire, burning between Ilillouette Creek and Red Creek, visit: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8332/For information on other Yosemite September Lightning fires,