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Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 03 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 031448 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC MON OCT 03 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 03 2022 661 WTPZ21 KNHC 031447 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC MON OCT 03 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL HURRICANE WATCHES, AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PUNTA MITA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 105.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 105.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.8N 105.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.7N 104.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 105.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 2 18:10:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1855 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHERN AZ INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1855 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022 Areas affected...far northern AZ into southern/eastern UT and western CO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021808Z - 022115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic strong thunderstorms may produce hail and strong gusts through the afternoon from far northern AZ into southern/eastern UT and western CO. DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to develop near the higher terrain of southern/central UT and northern AZ at midday as lower elevation temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s. Thunderstorms should slowly increase in coverage and intensity over the next few hours. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt and steepening low/midlevel lapse rates will support at least periodically organized cells, with some high-based supercell structures possible. Meager boundary-layer moisture will limit instability, resulting in transient stronger cells through the afternoon. Sporadic severe hail and strong outflow gusts will be possible as convection shifts east/northeast. Given the transient and isolated nature of any more intense convection, a watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 10/02/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF... LAT...LON 37931380 39651140 40890925 40960865 40900802 40460765 39650768 38060857 37010992 36641179 36591335 36901359 37421377 37931380 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 2 17:53:02 UTC 2022.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 17:48:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 15:22:44 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021747 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1200 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ORLENE... ...OUTER RAIN BANDS SPREADING OVER THE ISLAS MARIAS... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 106.9W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas * The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 106.9 West. Orlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias tonight or Monday morning, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area later on Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Orlene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected during the next day or so, however Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it reaches southwestern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico late Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the tropical storm warning area today through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today. RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday: * Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches. * Nayarit and Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of 10 inches. * Jalisco and Colima: 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches. These rainfall amounts will likely lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ORLENE... ...OUTER RAIN BANDS SPREADING OVER THE ISLAS MARIAS... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 the center of Orlene was located near 19.9, -106.9 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Orlene, located close to southwestern Mexico.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show
signs of organization. Additional development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward.
Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development
late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure has developed several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development during
the next several days. The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwest during the next couple of days, but could turn
northwestward after midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Monday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A weak mid- to upper-level trough will migrate slowly east across MT/WY into the Dakotas through Tuesday morning. A surface trough will extend from the Dakotas southward into the central High Plains while high pressure influences weather conditions across much of the central and eastern U.S. Near the surface trough, a narrow plume of modest moisture (surface dewpoints in the 40s and lower 50s) and heating will yield MLCAPE around 750 J/kg from SD into NE along the wind shift, beneath relatively weak midlevel southwesterlies below 30 kt. Scattered convection is likely to form off the Front Range, producing small hail and locally gusty winds. Given the relatively dry air mass and weak low-level winds, it appears convection will be sub severe. Farther southwest in the Four Corners, primarily diurnal storm activity will result in widely scattered to scattered storms during the afternoon to early evening. ..Smith.. 10/02/2022 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Monday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A weak mid- to upper-level trough will migrate slowly east across MT/WY into the Dakotas through Tuesday morning. A surface trough will extend from the Dakotas southward into the central High Plains while high pressure influences weather conditions across much of the central and eastern U.S. Near the surface trough, a narrow plume of modest moisture (surface dewpoints in the 40s and lower 50s) and heating will yield MLCAPE around 750 J/kg from SD into NE along the wind shift, beneath relatively weak midlevel southwesterlies below 30 kt. Scattered convection is likely to form off the Front Range, producing small hail and locally gusty winds. Given the relatively dry air mass and weak low-level winds, it appears convection will be sub severe. Farther southwest in the Four Corners, primarily diurnal storm activity will result in widely scattered to scattered storms during the afternoon to early evening. ..Smith.. 10/02/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Higher than expected humidity recoveries developed overnight across northern portions of the Elevated area across central Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Higher RH and lingering clouds may limit some warming and drying through the afternoon. However, gusty southerly winds and very dry fuels may still support a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central Plains. The previous outlook remains valid with no appreciable changes. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will impinge on the northern High Plains while upper ridging remains in place across the Plains States today. Surface lee troughing will encourage dry southerly flow across the Plains with the approaching of the upper low. Latest guidance consensus depicts Elevated overlapping sustained surface winds and RH for at least a few hours this afternoon across the central Plains. Elevated highlights have been introduced where fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread and are devoid of recent appreciable rainfall accumulations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Higher than expected humidity recoveries developed overnight across northern portions of the Elevated area across central Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Higher RH and lingering clouds may limit some warming and drying through the afternoon. However, gusty southerly winds and very dry fuels may still support a few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central Plains. The previous outlook remains valid with no appreciable changes. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will impinge on the northern High Plains while upper ridging remains in place across the Plains States today. Surface lee troughing will encourage dry southerly flow across the Plains with the approaching of the upper low. Latest guidance consensus depicts Elevated overlapping sustained surface winds and RH for at least a few hours this afternoon across the central Plains. Elevated highlights have been introduced where fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread and are devoid of recent appreciable rainfall accumulations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH/FOUR CORNERS TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and wind-producing storms may occur from Utah northeastward into the northern High Plains this afternoon and early evening. ...Utah/Four Corners to northern High Plains... A closed upper low centered over southern Montana will gradually open and spread slowly eastward, with a southern peripheral belt of moderately strong westerlies over the Great Basin and central Rockies. A few areas of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing early today, but in general, relatively cloud-free skies will allow for ample early autumn heating and related boundary layer destabilization this afternoon from southern/eastern Utah into southern/eastern Wyoming and the nearby High Plains areas including the Black Hills vicinity. Destabilizing boundary layer aside, the right-entrance region of a cyclonically curved mid-level jet will influence thunderstorm development particularly across southern/eastern Utah. The strength of mid/high-level west-southwesterly winds (35+ kt effective shear) could yield some high-based supercells aside from sustained multicells. Severe hail and severe-caliber winds gusts can be expected on an isolated basis. Other storms will also increase over the mountains/interior Wyoming and move into eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota vicinity later this afternoon. Meager low-level moisture will limit CAPE and overall updraft strength. However, moderately strong winds aloft and steep lapse rates will promote gusty winds and perhaps some hail in the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/02/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH/FOUR CORNERS TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and wind-producing storms may occur from Utah northeastward into the northern High Plains this afternoon and early evening. ...Utah/Four Corners to northern High Plains... A closed upper low centered over southern Montana will gradually open and spread slowly eastward, with a southern peripheral belt of moderately strong westerlies over the Great Basin and central Rockies. A few areas of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing early today, but in general, relatively cloud-free skies will allow for ample early autumn heating and related boundary layer destabilization this afternoon from southern/eastern Utah into southern/eastern Wyoming and the nearby High Plains areas including the Black Hills vicinity. Destabilizing boundary layer aside, the right-entrance region of a cyclonically curved mid-level jet will influence thunderstorm development particularly across southern/eastern Utah. The strength of mid/high-level west-southwesterly winds (35+ kt effective shear) could yield some high-based supercells aside from sustained multicells. Severe hail and severe-caliber winds gusts can be expected on an isolated basis. Other storms will also increase over the mountains/interior Wyoming and move into eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota vicinity later this afternoon. Meager low-level moisture will limit CAPE and overall updraft strength. However, moderately strong winds aloft and steep lapse rates will promote gusty winds and perhaps some hail in the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/02/2022 Read more

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021446 TCDEP1 Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 The satellite presentation of Orlene has degraded since early this morning. It appears that an increase in southwestern shear may have begun, as the eye has become cloud filled. Subjective satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB were T5.5 (102 kt), and objective estimates range from 112 to 120 kt. Based on the degraded satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been reduced to 110 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate the hurricane, and should provide additional information on the strength and size of the wind field early this afternoon. Orlene has likely peaked in intensity. Although the sea surface temperatures remain warm along the forecast track, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear during the next 24 to 36 hours is likely to cause the small hurricane to weaken. However, Orlene is forecast to pass near or over the Islas Marias as a strong hurricane late tonight or early Monday, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico has a hurricane by late Monday or Monday night. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and the low-level center should dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico in 60-72 hours. Orlene has continued to move just east of due north or 005/7 kt. The hurricane is being steered between a mid-level ridge to its east and a broad trough over northwestern Mexico. These steering currents should cause Orlene to bend north-northeastward later today and it should then continue on that general heading until landfall in southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly west of the previous advisory, and lies close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models (GFEX). This is a little to the right of the other simple and corrected consensus models. The GFS remains significantly farther right and faster than the remainder of the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning today. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning early Monday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of southwestern Mexico into Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.6N 106.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 20.6N 106.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 21.7N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 22.6N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 23.3N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 23.9N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 021446 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 68 30(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLAS MARIAS 50 8 69(77) 3(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLAS MARIAS 64 2 49(51) 2(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) MAZATLAN 34 1 29(30) 32(62) 7(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) MAZATLAN 50 X 4( 4) 13(17) 6(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) MAZATLAN 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 2 35(37) 8(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) SAN BLAS 50 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 8 9(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021445 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAS ISLAS MARIAS * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.9W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.9W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.6N 106.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.7N 106.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.6N 106.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.3N 105.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.9N 105.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 1 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently-
upgraded Hurricane Orlene, located a couple hundred miles
south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Shower activity associated with an area of disturbed weather
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized
since yesterday. Additional slow development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next
several days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 011747 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1200 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022 ...ORLENE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD LAS ISLAS MARIAS... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 107.0W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 107.0 West. Orlene is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northeastward motion at a slightly faster speed is expected to begin by tonight and continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias Sunday night or Monday morning and reach the coast of mainland Mexico later on Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected through Sunday. After that, steady weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Orlene. Orlene remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by Sunday night into Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm watch area tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Into Monday evening, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions of Southwest Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven