Aggregator

...IVO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Ivo was located near 16.1, -111.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 610 FOPZ15 KNHC 220235 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 1 59(60) 20(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 50 X 18(18) 20(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA CLARION 64 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 36(42) 10(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) 1(34) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong, isolated severe storms are possible this evening into the overnight hours across parts of the High Plains into Kansas, eastward toward southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Strong gusts will be the main concern, but some marginally severe hail is possible as well. ...WY/CO High Plains eastward toward the Lower OH Valley... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms were ongoing this evening in a modestly sheared, moderately unstable airmass. Several shortwave impulses will continue to move through west/northwesterly flow from the central High Plains toward the Midwest through the overnight hours while a surface boundary extending across KS eastward into MO/IL/IN remains nearly stationary. Warm advection atop the boundary will result in elevated storms through the overnight hours. However, modest effective shear (25-35 kt) and midlevel lapse rates (6.5-7 C/km per 00z regional RAOBs) should limit overall severe potential/storm organization in the absence of a stronger developing low level jet overnight. Nevertheless, strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the short term across the central High Plains where lapse rates are steeper. Though this threat should wane over the next couple of hours as the boundary layer stabilizes. Further east, storm clusters may produce periods of strong gusts through storm mergers/outflow interactions, but overall severe threat should remain limited by elevated nature of the convection. ...Northeastern States... The severe threat will continue to quickly diminish this evening as storms approach and move off the coast. Additionally, the boundary layer will continue to stabilize with the loss of daytime heating and subtle forcing continues to weaken as the shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region. A couple of strong storms may persist the next hour or so, but the overall threat has diminished sufficiently to remove severe probabilities this evening. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong, isolated severe storms are possible this evening into the overnight hours across parts of the High Plains into Kansas, eastward toward southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Strong gusts will be the main concern, but some marginally severe hail is possible as well. ...WY/CO High Plains eastward toward the Lower OH Valley... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms were ongoing this evening in a modestly sheared, moderately unstable airmass. Several shortwave impulses will continue to move through west/northwesterly flow from the central High Plains toward the Midwest through the overnight hours while a surface boundary extending across KS eastward into MO/IL/IN remains nearly stationary. Warm advection atop the boundary will result in elevated storms through the overnight hours. However, modest effective shear (25-35 kt) and midlevel lapse rates (6.5-7 C/km per 00z regional RAOBs) should limit overall severe potential/storm organization in the absence of a stronger developing low level jet overnight. Nevertheless, strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the short term across the central High Plains where lapse rates are steeper. Though this threat should wane over the next couple of hours as the boundary layer stabilizes. Further east, storm clusters may produce periods of strong gusts through storm mergers/outflow interactions, but overall severe threat should remain limited by elevated nature of the convection. ...Northeastern States... The severe threat will continue to quickly diminish this evening as storms approach and move off the coast. Additionally, the boundary layer will continue to stabilize with the loss of daytime heating and subtle forcing continues to weaken as the shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region. A couple of strong storms may persist the next hour or so, but the overall threat has diminished sufficiently to remove severe probabilities this evening. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong, isolated severe storms are possible this evening into the overnight hours across parts of the High Plains into Kansas, eastward toward southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Strong gusts will be the main concern, but some marginally severe hail is possible as well. ...WY/CO High Plains eastward toward the Lower OH Valley... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms were ongoing this evening in a modestly sheared, moderately unstable airmass. Several shortwave impulses will continue to move through west/northwesterly flow from the central High Plains toward the Midwest through the overnight hours while a surface boundary extending across KS eastward into MO/IL/IN remains nearly stationary. Warm advection atop the boundary will result in elevated storms through the overnight hours. However, modest effective shear (25-35 kt) and midlevel lapse rates (6.5-7 C/km per 00z regional RAOBs) should limit overall severe potential/storm organization in the absence of a stronger developing low level jet overnight. Nevertheless, strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the short term across the central High Plains where lapse rates are steeper. Though this threat should wane over the next couple of hours as the boundary layer stabilizes. Further east, storm clusters may produce periods of strong gusts through storm mergers/outflow interactions, but overall severe threat should remain limited by elevated nature of the convection. ...Northeastern States... The severe threat will continue to quickly diminish this evening as storms approach and move off the coast. Additionally, the boundary layer will continue to stabilize with the loss of daytime heating and subtle forcing continues to weaken as the shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region. A couple of strong storms may persist the next hour or so, but the overall threat has diminished sufficiently to remove severe probabilities this evening. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong, isolated severe storms are possible this evening into the overnight hours across parts of the High Plains into Kansas, eastward toward southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Strong gusts will be the main concern, but some marginally severe hail is possible as well. ...WY/CO High Plains eastward toward the Lower OH Valley... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms were ongoing this evening in a modestly sheared, moderately unstable airmass. Several shortwave impulses will continue to move through west/northwesterly flow from the central High Plains toward the Midwest through the overnight hours while a surface boundary extending across KS eastward into MO/IL/IN remains nearly stationary. Warm advection atop the boundary will result in elevated storms through the overnight hours. However, modest effective shear (25-35 kt) and midlevel lapse rates (6.5-7 C/km per 00z regional RAOBs) should limit overall severe potential/storm organization in the absence of a stronger developing low level jet overnight. Nevertheless, strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the short term across the central High Plains where lapse rates are steeper. Though this threat should wane over the next couple of hours as the boundary layer stabilizes. Further east, storm clusters may produce periods of strong gusts through storm mergers/outflow interactions, but overall severe threat should remain limited by elevated nature of the convection. ...Northeastern States... The severe threat will continue to quickly diminish this evening as storms approach and move off the coast. Additionally, the boundary layer will continue to stabilize with the loss of daytime heating and subtle forcing continues to weaken as the shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region. A couple of strong storms may persist the next hour or so, but the overall threat has diminished sufficiently to remove severe probabilities this evening. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2019 Read more

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE LIC TO 25 NE COS TO 35 NW COS. ..DIAL..08/22/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-069-123-220240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT JEFFERSON LARIMER WELD WYC001-015-021-031-220240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 611 SEVERE TSTM CO WY 212045Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 611 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms, in the form of sustained multicells and a few transient supercells, are expected to develop along the foothills/I-25 corridor of eastern Colorado into southeast Wyoming. Isolated large hail will be the primary risk as storms drift east-southeastward through late afternoon/evening, although localized severe-caliber winds could also occur, particularly across east-central Colorado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northeast of Laramie WY to 30 miles southeast of Pueblo CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 609...WW 610... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1831 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1831 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri and extreme northern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220044Z - 220245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated downburst winds and some hail will remain possible next couple hours as storms develop through southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri early this evening. Due to the expected short duration of the threat, a WW will probably not be needed. DISCUSSION...Storms that initiated along a quasistationary front across east central KS have recently undergone an intensity increase with isolated wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH reported during the past hour. Based on latest objective analysis, storms are approaching a corridor of stronger instability in warm sector with temperatures around 90F and low 70s F dewpoints supporting 3000+ MLCAPE. Recent VWP from Wichita KS indicate veering winds in the lowest 2 km and 30-35 kt sfc-6 km shear. Storms will continue developing southeast this evening, primarily along and north of convectively reinforced front. The downstream environment should support mostly multicells, but possibly a couple transient supercell structures with isolated damaging wind and hail possible through 03Z. ..Dial/Grams.. 08/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 37799768 38119588 38629357 37999308 37129467 36909663 37159752 37799768 Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
100- STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ACK TO 10 SSE GON TO 20 ENE BDR TO 10 SSE POU TO 15 ENE POU TO 25 WSW BDL TO 5 NE BDL TO 15 WSW ORH TO 25 N PVD TO 35 ENE HYA. WW 609 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 220100Z. ..NAUSLAR..08/22/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-005-007-009-011-013-015-220100- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC001-005-007-019-220100- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BRISTOL DUKES NANTUCKET NYC027-220100- Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
040- STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE JFK TO 15 ESE BDR TO 20 WNW BDR TO 15 WSW POU TO 20 WNW POU TO 20 N POU TO 20 WSW BAF TO 20 NNE BAF TO 25 S EEN TO 20 WNW BOS TO 50 E BOS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829 ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-220040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC001-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-220040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BRISTOL DUKES HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER Read more

WW 609 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NJ NY RI VT CW 211750Z - 220100Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Far southern Maine Southern New Hampshire Northern New Jersey Southeast New York Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify particularly across far eastern New York and southern New England, near and south of a warm front that will continue to spread slowly northward. Some supercells with a hail/tornado risk aside from damaging winds are most probable across southern New England, with damaging winds otherwise expected with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Poughkeepsie NY to 40 miles east of Boston MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW DCA TO 15 WSW BWI TO 30 NE BWI TO 15 SSW TTN TO 5 E EWR. ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-212340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-017-029-033-035-041-212340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CHARLES KENT PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-025-029-033-212340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW DCA TO 15 WSW BWI TO 30 NE BWI TO 15 SSW TTN TO 5 E EWR. ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-212340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-017-029-033-035-041-212340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CHARLES KENT PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-025-029-033-212340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER Read more

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 611 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830 ..DIAL..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-025-031-035-039-041-059-069-089-101-119-123- 220040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON LARIMER OTERO PUEBLO TELLER WELD WYC001-015-021-031-220040- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212310
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Ivo are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Ivo are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Brown

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 611 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830 ..EDWARDS..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-025-031-035-039-041-059-069-089-101-119-123- 212340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON LARIMER OTERO PUEBLO TELLER WELD WYC001-015-021-031-212340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 611 SEVERE TSTM CO WY 212045Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 611 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms, in the form of sustained multicells and a few transient supercells, are expected to develop along the foothills/I-25 corridor of eastern Colorado into southeast Wyoming. Isolated large hail will be the primary risk as storms drift east-southeastward through late afternoon/evening, although localized severe-caliber winds could also occur, particularly across east-central Colorado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northeast of Laramie WY to 30 miles southeast of Pueblo CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 609...WW 610... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1830 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611... FOR CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1830 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...central Colorado through southeast Wyoming Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611... Valid 212239Z - 220015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611 continues. SUMMARY...A few instances of hail and locally strong wind gusts remain possible from central CO through southeast WY through 00Z, but overall threat is expected to become increasingly marginal with onset of nocturnal cooling. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms continue over the higher terrain, but coverage has remained sparse across most of CO into southeast WY. With upper ridging aloft, the primary forcing mechanism has been heating and upslope component over the higher terrain. While the downstream atmosphere is moderately unstable with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, westerly winds aloft remain modest with generally 15-20 kt in the 700-400 mb layer. Limited storm coverage with low confidence that storms will be able to consolidate, along with weak flow aloft and increasing convective inhibition, all lower confidence that activity will be able to move off the higher terrain. Nevertheless, what storms that do develop will remain capable of producing a few instances of hail and locally strong wind gusts next couple hours. ..Dial.. 08/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 42140512 40220442 38200424 38080505 40140558 42080591 42140512 Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW DCA TO 15 WSW BWI TO 30 NE BWI TO 15 SSW TTN TO 5 E EWR. ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-212340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-017-029-033-035-041-212340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CHARLES KENT PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-025-029-033-212340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER Read more