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The low level of the Mississippi River increases the likelihood of running aground, which has occurred numerous times. Groundings happened near Stack Island, Mississippi and Memphis, Tennessee, resulting in waterway closures around both sites. Eight groundings have occurred in the past week, due to shallow water. The Maritime Executive (Plantation, Fla.), Oct 4, 2022

The Dorena-Hickman Ferry, which transports vehicles across the Mississippi River between Missouri and Kentucky closed on Sept. 15, due to low water levels. When the river is low, it is harder for vehicles to load and off-load from the ferry at both landings, according to the Kentucky Transportation Department. The ferry will remain closed until water levels improve. The ferry connects Kentucky Route 1354 in Hickman with Missouri Route A and Route 77 near Dorena and is the only direct route between the two states. The Associated Press (New York), Sept. 16, 2022

Barge traffic is stopped near Lake Providence in northern Louisiana along a stretch that has been mostly closed since late last week. About 100 tow boats moving some 1,600 barges were lined up for miles waiting to get through. At least two other lengths of the lower Mississippi have also been closed at times, disrupting the flow of grain, fertilizer and other commodities. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is working on dredging the river to deepen the shipping channel so traffic can resume, but navigation challenges will likely continue until the region receives more rain to boost river flow. Reuters (New York), Oct 4, 2022

The fall means harvest time with farm machinery in the fields, but dry conditions also increase the fire danger and the likelihood of field fires. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources warned operators of farm equipment and off-road vehicles to use special caution near dry vegetation. Keep equipment maintained and fire safe. Also keep trailer chains from dragging, which can generate sparks. KARE 11 (Minneapolis, Minn.), Sept 29, 2022

Bristol’s reservoirs have fallen below 70% of capacity, prompting the Bristol Water Department and Sewer Department and the mayor to request that residents voluntarily curb their water use. The Bristol Press (Ct.), Oct 4, 2022

The Cannon Fire was detected on August 7th, 2022. It is primarily burning in the Cannon Creek drainage, located in the Bob Marshall Wilderness on the Spotted Bear Ranger District. The fire is burning on the south facing side of the slope and has spotted over the ridge into the sub drainage that separates Cannon and Gorge Creeks. As of 9/5/2022 the fire activity has picked up since the last rain event, particularly on the western flank of the fire in the bowls under Swan Peak. As of 9/8/2022, the fire crossed Cannon Creek on the south side of the fire and is burning into the 2001 Cannon Fire burn scar. As of As of 10/04/2022, no significant observable growth has been detected. The Spotted Bear Ranger District will continue to monitor fire activity, with reconnaissance flights as resources allow. Potential threats to values will continually be assessed. A point protection strategy and checking actions, where safe and effective, will be implemented as needed. There is a significant fire...

950
ABPZ20 KNHC 041733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 4 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Paine, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is currently producing only a few
showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system over
the next few days is likely to be slow to occur due to strong
upper-level winds and nearby dry air. The low is forecast to
move generally westward to west-northwestward remaining
south of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Paine are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Paine are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Brown

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 4 17:41:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 4 17:41:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Oct 04 2022 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered afternoon storms are most likely across parts of New Mexico and Arizona, and portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...AZ/NM... A weak shortwave trough will be in place over the southern Rockies vicinity on Wednesday, with a more amplified upper ridge oriented across CA and the Pacific Northwest. Deep-layer flow will remain weak, resulting in poor vertical shear. Weak destabilization will be driven by cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates atop modest surface heating. Scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon, though severe potential will be negated by weak shear/instability. ...Upper MS Valley Vicinity... Isolated thunderstorm are expected during the afternoon/early evening as a mid/upper shortwave trough and surface cold front migrate across the region. An antecedent dry airmass over the Midwest will preclude better-quality boundary-layer moisture ahead of the surface front. This will limit instability despite cool midlevel temperatures and modest lapse rates. Vertical shear also will remain modest, with effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt forecast. A couple stronger cells could produce gusty winds and perhaps small hail, though severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Oct 04 2022 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor imagery depicts a mid/upper-level trough tracking slowly eastward across the northern/central Plains, preceded by a belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow and modest midlevel height falls/large-scale ascent. An attendant weak cold front will shift eastward from the central Plains into the Upper/Middle MS Valley through the period. Farther south, a convectively enhanced, low-latitude midlevel impulse will continue drifting east-southeastward across southern AZ, with related large-scale ascent overspreading southeastern AZ into western NM. ...Central Plains... Along/behind the weak cold front/wind shift and ongoing band of shallow frontal convection, filtered diurnal heating/destabilization of a plume of recycled boundary-layer moisture (lower/middle 50s dewpoints) beneath cold midlevel temperatures will support isolated to widely scattered convective development this afternoon into the evening. Over parts of NE, the enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow should yield 25-35 kt of effective shear, which coupled with marginal surface-based instability could favor a loosely organized cluster or two capable of locally strong gusts and/or small hail. ...Desert Southwest... Differential heating along the edges of ongoing shallow convection and cloud debris across southeastern AZ coupled with orographic circulations should result in additional surface-based convective development over the area this afternoon -- aided by large-scale ascent ahead of the midlevel cyclonic impulse. While generally weak deep-layer flow/shear should limit convective organization/longevity, steep midlevel lapse rates atop marginal low-level moisture could support a few strong updrafts capable of locally strong gusts and/or marginal hail. This will especially be the case for any multicell clusters that intercept steep low-level lapse rates over southeastern AZ and southwestern NM where stronger diurnal heating is expected. ..Weinman/Thornton/Thompson.. 10/04/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Tue Oct 04 2022 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Lyons.. 10/04/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 04 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the northern Plains while a surface cold front sags southward across the central Plains today. While brief bouts of locally dry and breezy conditions may occur ahead of the front around afternoon peak heating, widespread significant wildfire-spread potential should remain limited, with no fire weather highlights introduced. Localized wildfire-spread potential may also exist across the central Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley given the presence of a dry low-level airmass overlapping modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Even with the fall weather & minimal fire activity on the Weasel Fire, the work continues. Three falling modules, including two Forest Service and one contract module, and two excavators are working to mitigate hazards from fire weakened trees. A squad also removed the structure protection wrap from the Wam Lookout this week. The area, trail and road closure that was in place as been terminated and the area is now open. Please use caution if you are in the vicinity of the Weasel Fire. There is the possibility that some smoke or open flames may be visible and potential hazards including falling trees and limbs, loos rocks, and flash flooding. A closure order is in effect for the Frozen Lake Road (NFS #114A and #114Y). The closure starts past the junction of NFS Road #700 and NFS #114Y and continues northeast to junction with NFS Road #114A. Road #114A is closed from the junction, which is at the Flathead and Kootenai Boundary, continuing to mile post 10.3.For more information related...

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2022 14:47:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2022 15:23:38 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 041445 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022 1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 9 18(27) 4(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 041445 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022 Deep convection continues to burst around the western portion of Paine's circulation. Infrared and early-light visible satellite imagery suggests that there has been some increase in convective banding, and that the center is slightly more embedded within the colder cloud tops. Despite the slight increase in organization, subjective and objective Dvorak classifications have not changed much and still support an initial intensity of 35 kt. Hopefully scatterometer data will provide additional information on the size and intensity of Paine this afternoon. Paine still has a very brief window of opportunity in which to intensify. The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain low today, but is expected to increase significantly tonight and Wednesday. Therefore, some slight strengthening is predicted, followed by gradual weakening due to the unfavorable upper-level environment and an increasing dry mid-level air mass. Paine is expected to become a remnant low in about 48 hours, and dissipate around day 3. The cyclone is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. Paine should continue northwestward for the 24-36 hours around the western side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a bend to the west-northwest and west is predicted as Paine becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the simple consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.5N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 18.1N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 18.9N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 19.2N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 19.4N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 19.4N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 041445 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022 ...PAINE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 113.0W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paine was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 113.0 West. Paine is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A general northwestward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the west on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today. Weakening is expected to begin tonight, with Paine degenerating into a remnant low in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...PAINE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 the center of Paine was located near 17.5, -113.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 041444 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022 1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 45SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.1N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 114.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.4N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.4N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Some Twin Cities homes have developed cracks in foundations and interior walls. The Mankato Free Press (Minn.), Oct 2, 2022