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WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..CONIGLIO..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-202140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510-202140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 605 SEVERE TSTM DC MD VA WV CW 201900Z - 210100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Northern Virginia The eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multicell clusters and pulse-type storms will gradually spread/develop eastward and pose a threat for occasional downbursts with damaging winds through the remainder of the afternoon into this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Staunton VA to 25 miles east southeast of Baltimore MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 602...WW 603...WW 604... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts late this afternoon across the Ohio Valley and parts of the Mid Atlantic Coast region. Storms developing mainly this evening into the overnight hours may also pose a risk for severe hail and wind across the north central Plains into lower Missouri Valley. ...20Z Outlook Update... Adjustments to categorical and probabilistic lines near/east of the Mississippi Valley have been made, mostly to account for the progression of a convectively generated cold pool, which continues to advance southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. In general, the convective system has weakened, but the leading edge of the cold pool may remain a focus for continuing vigorous thunderstorm development and potentially damaging surface gusts into the 23-01Z time frame. To the west, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air persists across much of the Plains into the mid and lower Missouri Valley, contributing to substantial mid-level convective inhibition. Late afternoon into early evening thunderstorm development may remain fairly sparse and generally focused near the Rockies and adjacent high Plains. More substantive convective development probably will await forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, near/north of a strengthening central Plains nocturnal southerly low-level jet during the 03-06Z time frame. Strongest storms probably will be focused just north of the axis of warmest mid-level temperatures (around 700 mb), which currently generally extends across northeastern Colorado through southern Nebraska into southwestern Iowa. The eastern edge of the Plains "slight" risk area has been adjusted somewhat to account for this. ..Kerr.. 08/20/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/ ...Mid MS/OH Valley region through this afternoon... A well-developed MCS and associated MCV will continue to move east-southeastward across IL/IN through the afternoon. Convection will likely be maintained into the afternoon along the gust front as the cold pool encounters a warming boundary layer with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, resulting in MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition. Vertical shear will weaken with southeastward extent aside from the MCV itself, which suggests that convective organization will be driven more by lift along the gust front by mid-late afternoon. Still, the established cold pool and potential for strong downdrafts will maintain a threat for damaging winds through the afternoon at least into IN/KY, and perhaps into OH late this afternoon. ...Northern VA and vicinity this afternoon... A small thunderstorm cluster and diffuse MCV will move eastward from the eastern WV Panhandle across northern VA/MD this afternoon. Surface heating in advance of this minor wave will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg), and some loose clustering of storms is expected this afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg will favor occasional downbursts with some potential for wind damage. ...Central Plains/High Plains this evening into tonight... The western extent of the outflow is effectively reinforcing a front across NE. Dry abiabatic midlevel lapse rates atop boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s, with surface heating, will contribute to MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg. Regional 12z soundings suggest that surface temperatures will need to warm to near 100-105 F to eliminate convective inhibition, thus storm formation this afternoon along the effective front is in question. The more probable scenarios are for storms to form this evening in the upslope regime near the WY/CO/NE border, and overnight across NE in the strengthening warm advection immediately north of the front. The evening upslope storms could be supercells initially as deep-layer vertical shear is augmented within the easterly low-level flow along and north of the front, and large hail would be the main concern. Some upscale growth into a cluster with damaging winds will be possible early tonight as a southerly low-level jet and warm advection strengthen. The warm advection could also support additional elevated storm development farther east across NE overnight, with an attendant threat for isolated large hail/damaging winds. Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0606 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 606 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 201935Z - 210100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 606 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeastern Indiana Extreme north central Kentucky Southwestern Ohio * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of storms in Indiana will continue to progress toward the east-southeast, with additional storm mergers expected this afternoon into southwest Ohio. The primary threat will be occasional damaging winds with embedded downbursts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Cincinnati OH to 50 miles southwest of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 602...WW 603...WW 604...WW 605... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1812 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1812 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Areas affected...Portions of southwest Ohio into central and southwest Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201929Z - 202100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A localized damaging wind threat continues through mid afternoon over the area with a spreading MCS cold pool and an unstable environment ahead of it, but the weakening MCS, as well as the isolated nature of the severe wind threat, is making the need for a Watch uncertain. DISCUSSION...The MCS pushing though the western Ohio valley region continues to slowly disorganize and weaken amidst the weakening low-to-mid-level vertical wind shear over the area. Damaging wind gusts have been limited to near the apex of the arcing convective line that passed through Indianapolis around 1845z. The trend of a convective line becoming more broken is expected to continue as the cold pool continues to push south and east. Concurrently, severe wind gusts associated with the larger-scale rear inflow is expected to diminish in the next hour or so. However, in regions ahead of the MCS where earlier convection has not eliminated the large surface-based CAPE, multiple short-lived cells should develop as the cold pool pushes through, some of which could produce locally damaging winds within the steep low-level lapse rates. This damaging wind threat should be maintained through mid-afternoon, although the coverage of the threat is limiting the confidence that a Watch will be needed. ..Coniglio/Thompson.. 08/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX... LAT...LON 40508467 40658404 40568360 40308315 39958299 39408286 39008294 38808329 38678380 38688455 38878473 39888479 40508467 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 20 19:16:08 UTC 2019.

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BLV TO 10 SSE BLV TO 20 SSE BLV. WW 602 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 202000Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810 ..SMITH..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC157-202000- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RANDOLPH MOC055-093-123-179-186-187-221-202000- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD IRON MADISON REYNOLDS STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BLV TO 10 SSE BLV TO 20 SSE BLV. WW 602 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 202000Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810 ..SMITH..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC157-202000- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RANDOLPH MOC055-093-123-179-186-187-221-202000- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD IRON MADISON REYNOLDS STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 602 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO 201115Z - 202000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeastern Iowa Central and northern Illinois Northern and eastern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 615 AM until 300 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An expanding, severe complex of thunderstorms will sweep southeastward across the watch area into early afternoon, the main severe-weather hazard being wind. Isolated hail and an embedded tornado also cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles either side of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Ottumwa IA to 20 miles east northeast of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 601... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 32045. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811 ..SMITH..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-202000- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510-202000- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE FAM TO 30 WNW EVV TO 45 SW BMG. ..SMITH..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-055-059-065-069-077-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-193-199- 201940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WHITE WILLIAMSON INC019-025-037-043-051-061-077-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173- 175-201940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY PIKE POSEY SCOTT SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW BMG TO 20 NNE BMG TO 30 ENE LAF. ..SMITH..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-011-013-023-027-031-035-055-057-059-063-065-067-071-079- 081-083-093-095-097-101-105-109-135-139-145-159-201940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN CLINTON DAVIESS DECATUR DELAWARE GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MONROE MORGAN RANDOLPH RUSH SHELBY TIPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Previous discussion follows. ..Bentley.. 08/20/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies tomorrow. The trough will likely deepen and stretch through northern California and much of the Great Basin. An associated surface cold front will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest and into northern California, the northern Great Basin, and the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions will likely develop across portions of the Columbia Basin/Gorge and into central/eastern Oregon ahead of the approaching cold front. Elevated/locally critical conditions may develop, but the window for these conditions should be relatively short-lived and followed by cool/moist conditions. Thunderstorms may also develop along/ahead of this cold front across eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle and western Montana. However, given the higher precipitable water values (0.8-1.2") along/just ahead of the cold front and the cool/moist airmass behind the front, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was not included. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Previous discussion follows. ..Bentley.. 08/20/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies tomorrow. The trough will likely deepen and stretch through northern California and much of the Great Basin. An associated surface cold front will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest and into northern California, the northern Great Basin, and the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions will likely develop across portions of the Columbia Basin/Gorge and into central/eastern Oregon ahead of the approaching cold front. Elevated/locally critical conditions may develop, but the window for these conditions should be relatively short-lived and followed by cool/moist conditions. Thunderstorms may also develop along/ahead of this cold front across eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle and western Montana. However, given the higher precipitable water values (0.8-1.2") along/just ahead of the cold front and the cool/moist airmass behind the front, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was not included. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1811 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN VA...MD...SOUTH-CENTRAL PA
Mesoscale Discussion 1811 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Areas affected...northern VA...MD...south-central PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201819Z - 201915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon. Isolated strong gusts (40-55mph) capable of pockets of wind damage are forecast through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a cluster of thunderstorms developing over the eastern part of the central Appalachians aided in part by a weak MCV and strong surface heating. Surface analysis indicates temperatures have warmed into the lower-middle 90s degrees F with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s-lower 70s. RAP forecast soundings appear valid (based on surface conditions) and around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE is noted near the greater D.C. vicinity. Although flow is generally weak through the troposphere, steepened 0-2km lapse rates and PW around 1.7 inches suggest the stronger multicells that develop will be capable of an isolated risk for damaging gusts. It is not clear that the magnitude/coverage of the strong/locally severe storm risk warrants a severe thunderstorm watch, nonetheless, convective trends will be monitored. ..Smith/Thompson.. 08/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38897934 38957937 40047833 40127769 39937667 39467636 38277723 38037817 38337923 38897934 Read more

WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0603 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

The lightning-caused Adobe Fire, reported Saturday, August 3, is approximately 125 acres, burning on National Forest System lands, Sierra County, NM. This fire lies just east of the private property, Los Adobe Ranch; and three miles south of an El Paso Electric powerline. It is burning in grass and ponderosa pine. This fire is visible from Winston, NM. With predicted weather, values, fire growth potential a decision has been made to manage this fire and allow fire to play its natural role on the landscape.

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE COU TO 40 NW ALN TO 15 SW BLV TO 35 E SLO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810 ..SMITH..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC013-025-033-061-083-101-121-133-159-189-201840- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLAY CRAWFORD GREENE JERSEY LAWRENCE MARION MONROE RICHLAND WASHINGTON MOC071-099-113-139-163-183-189-219-510-201840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN JEFFERSON LINCOLN MONTGOMERY PIKE ST. CHARLES ST. LOUIS WARREN MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although this system has not become
better organized since yesterday, environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or so while the low moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the
coast of Mexico. This system could produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding over portions of southeastern Mexico during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Conditions have become less conducive for development, however a
tropical depression could still form within the next couple of days
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch