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Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 291444 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.6N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N 108.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 22.9N 107.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 291444 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 ...ORLENE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 105.9W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of western Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 105.9 West. Orlene is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. A turn to the north is forecast to occur on Friday, and that motion should continue over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Orlene is expected to become a hurricane by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...ORLENE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 the center of Orlene was located near 15.1, -105.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

The Ross Fork Fire started by lightning on August 12, 2022 and first discovered on August 14th. The fire has been burning in remote and rugged areas of the Sawtooth National Forest and National Recreation Area and along the Highway 75 corridor south of Stanley. A high wind event over Labor Day weekend caused extreme fire behavior and growth. The fire moved west towards the North Fork of Ross Creek, and north towards Jake’s Gulch and Alturas Lake Creek. The southwest winds aligned and established fire well into Beaver Creek and threatened the community of Smiley Creek prompting the evacuations of that area and Alturas Lake. On Tuesday, September 6, the fire crossed to the east side of Highway 75. Firefighters and aircraft were able to limit growth to approximately 800 acres on the east side of Highway 75. Rain has fallen intermittently since the 12th, moderating fire behavior significantly.Evacuations:Effective September 16, all evacuation areas have been reduced to "READY" status...

The Bear Gulch Fire was lightning caused and detected on August 18th, 2022. It is located approximately 6 miles east of Murray, ID, and is within a mile of the Idaho/Montana state

Yosemite September Lightning Since September 5, Yosemite Fire and Aviation and partners responded to multiple new lightning strikes in the park. No closures or evacuations are associated with these incidents. All are/were less than 1/4 acre.CHIQUITO FIRE – OUT Location: Chiquito Pass/Chain Lakes area, near the park’s southeast boundary Elevation: 9100’ Discover Date: September 10, 2022TURNER FIRE - OUT Location: east of Alder Falls, along Turner Ridge, northeast of the Wawona Road above Alder Creek Elevation: 6700’ Discover Date: September 10, 2022EMPIRE FIRE – OUT Location: near Empire Meadows, Badger Pass area Elevation: 6500’ Discover Date: September 10, 2022 Size: 1/10th  acreWOLF FIRE - OUT Location: Along Tioga Road, east of White Wolf Elevation: 8000’ Discover Date: September 10, 2022OBELISK FIRE - OUT Location: East of Starr King Meadow/ west of Lake Obelisk/Mt. Clark Elevation: 9,750’ Discover date: September 9, 2022RANCH FIRE - OUT Location: Northeast of...

All safety closures associated with the Red fire have been lifted.The Red Fire is burning in the 2001 Hoover Fire footprint in red fir, lodgepole pine litter. For information on the Rodgers Fire, north of Hetch Hetchy visit: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8333/ For information on other Yosemite September Lightning fires, visit: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8419/

Drought has caused a hay shortage and dried out ponds, leading many Oklahoma ranchers to sell livestock. The Tulsa Stockyard has been very busy as some ranchers downsize their herds a bit early this fall in preparation for winter. The aim was to sell the cattle before they began to lose weight. Drought limited the hay crop, so ranchers were trying to find enough to get through the year. Hay growers usually get two to three cuttings of hay, but not this summer for lack of rain. High fuel costs make it prohibitive to buy hay from out of state, so ranchers were selling the herd instead. The owner of the stockyard said that they might move 300 to 400 head in a day, but had a little over 5,000 head. KJRH-TV Tulsa 2 (Okla.), Sept 26, 2022

MD 1842 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 546... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL FL
Mesoscale Discussion 1842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Areas affected...Parts of central and east-central FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 546... Valid 281718Z - 281915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 546 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of a few tornadoes should gradually increase across parts of central and east-central FL this afternoon, with a potential focus from Lake Okeechobee northward to near Orlando FL during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate upper 70s/lower 80s surface temperatures from Lake Okeechobee northeastward toward Melbourne FL, where at least modest cloud thinning has developed. These warmer surface temperatures, coupled with upper 70s boundary-layer dewpoints gradually spreading northward should allow for surface-based convective inflow. The MLB VWP depicts modest low-level hodograph curvature owing to backed surface winds beneath strengthening south-southwesterly flow. Farther west, the VWP hodograph from TBW is much larger (500-600 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH), though buoyancy is much weaker with westward extent. From Lake Okeechobee northward to around Orlando FL, a favorable overlap of the surface-based buoyancy and large looping low-level hodographs should prove favorable for increasing tornado potential during the next few hours. This is especially the case as a broken band of low-topped supercells spread northward across this locally favorable environment (two TDSs recently observed with this activity over Okeechobee and St. Lucie Counties). ..Weinman.. 09/28/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27248117 27438141 27798167 28168177 28428161 28478133 28438105 28328083 28178072 27818049 27318034 27118048 27118089 27248117 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281744
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
south of the southern coast of Mexico continue to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward off the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
The remnants of Newton are located about 1,100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The associated
shower activity has become a little better organized, and additional
slight development of the system is possible during the next day or
two. This system could could briefly become a tropical depression
again while it moves generally westward over the western portion of
the eastern North Pacific. Environmental conditions are expected to
become less conducive for additional development by the end of the
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of east-central and northeast Florida Thursday morning and afternoon, in association with Tropical Cyclone Ian. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to progress across the Canadian Maritime Provinces and northeastern U.S. Thursday, before moving into the North Atlantic during the second half of the period. Meanwhile, a second trough/low is forecast to make slow eastward progress across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. In between, ridging will prevail, though several short-wave cyclonic disturbances will progress through weak/largely westerly flow across the Plains/Canadian Prairies. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northwestern U.S. and into the Great Basin/Intermountain region, while a lee trough is maintained over the High Plains. In the East, high pressure will prevail, with the exception of the Southeast where Ian -- likely to have weakened to tropical storm status -- will be moving across central and northeastern Florida through the day, and then offshore overnight. ...Parts of central and northeastern Florida... Current forecasts from the National Hurricane Center place the center of Ian over central Florida at the start of period, with slow northeastward motion across northeastern portions of Florida through the day before moving offshore north of Melbourne by early evening. Given this location and movement, inland tornado risk will be confined largely to northeast Florida coastal counties, with the remainder of the risk offshore. As such, a small SLGT risk/5% tornado area is being maintained at this time, for areas near and north of Cape Canaveral. Risk will diminish after dark, as Ian continues to shift offshore. ..Goss.. 09/28/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes are expected this afternoon/evening, especially across east central Florida, in association with Major Hurricane Ian. ...East central FL this afternoon/evening... Major Hurricane Ian is approaching the FL Gulf coast near Fort Myers and Port Charlotte, and the storm core will continue to move northeastward across central FL through tonight (see latest NHC advisories for additional information). Visible satellite imagery reveals a zone of filtered surface heating along the Atlantic coast, to the east of the thicker clouds with the hurricane core along the Gulf coast, as discussion in MD 1841. Also, low-level flow has veered and hodographs have become less favorable for supercells across the Keys, while the stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature will persist through the afternoon/evening across east central FL. As new convection forms in the zone of stronger surface heating, tornadoes will be possible as supercells move northward into the weak baroclinic zone across central/east central FL, with a diminished threat farther northwest and deeper into the rain-cooled air. This baroclinic zone may shift slowly northward along the Atlantic coast though early tonight, in advance of the hurricane core. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/28/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST... An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of central/eastern WY where guidance has come into better agreement in the potential for sustained elevated wind/RH conditions this afternoon. RH values are already falling into the low 30s, and should fall to near 10-15% by this afternoon as winds increase to 15 mph. ...Gulf Coast... Morning surface observations are sampling near-record low dewpoint values along the Gulf Coast and into AL. Winds have increased in response to the approach of Hurricane Ian to the southeast, with gusts up to 30 mph already being reported. Critical conditions remain likely for much of the Gulf Coast and will be most prevalent for south-central AL into the western FL Panhandle. ...Southeast Oregon into Northwest Nevada... The KMAX and KRGX VWPs have shown an increase in low to mid-level winds over the past 2-3 hours as the upper wave moves ashore. Such winds will overspread the northern Sierra/southern Cascades by late afternoon, in line with the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical conditions remain likely. ...Southern to Northern Plains... Dry conditions and receptive fuels remain prevalent across much of the Plains with RH reductions into the 20-30% expected by late afternoon for most locations. While winds will generally remain below 15 mph, a few locations may see periods of elevated fire weather conditions where winds can exceed 15 mph. This potential appears most likely across southern to central OK and through the southern Red River Valley of the north along the ND/MN border, though confidence in a more robust threat remains too limited for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 09/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... The broad upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the Plains, today. In the Northwest, an upper-level trough will move into Washington and Oregon. At the surface, a stout surface high will move into the upper Midwest. A cold front will be draped across the northern Gulf into north Florida. Hurricane Ian will continue into central Florida. ...Central Gulf Coast... The combination of the strong surface high to the north and the strong pressure gradient around Hurricane Ian will drive moderately strong northerly winds across much of the Southeast. With these areas remaining dry, fuels are receptive to fire spread. RH below 30% should occur over much of the region, particularly areas that are not impacted by high level outflow clouds from Ian. There is a corridor along/near the Gulf Coast that could see RH as low as 20%. This area is most likely to see critical fire weather as sustained winds near 15-20 mph with higher gusts probable. ...Southeast Oregon into northwest Nevada... The approach of the upper-level trough will promote a surface trough in the Columbia basin and drive moderate downslope winds of 15-20 mph. RH of 15-20% is expected. Critical conditions are possible, but will be localized and brief. ...Central/northern Plains... As a lee trough develops in the Canadian Rockies, southerly winds may increase to 15-25 mph in parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska. Fuels have become marginally drier after recent rains. However, fire weather concerns are expected to be mitigated by cooler temperatures and upper-level cloud cover. The overlap of low RH and the stronger winds is not expected to be widespread. Locally elevated to near critical conditions are possible in central Wyoming. However, fuels are generally marginal and duration of these conditions will be short-lived. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 546 TORNADO FL CW 280855Z - 282100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and South Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 455 AM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely SUMMARY...As Hurricane Ian continues to approach the west coast of Florida, a strong eastern-peripheral wind field and a very moist air mass will support the potential for supercells and a related tornado risk. This tornado potential will initially be focused across the southern Peninsula early today, but is likely to further increase and spread northward into the central Florida Peninsula by late morning and afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles southwest of Miami FL to 15 miles east northeast of Orlando FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 15030. ...Guyer Read more

Tulsa, Muskogee, Creek, Rogers and Okmulgee counties are some of the counties in northeastern Oklahoma already in a burn ban as drought continues. Eastern Oklahoma has a precipitation deficit of six to 12 inches since the end of May. Muskogee County was under a 14-day burn ban, while Tulsa County just extended its burn ban by another seven days. KWTV-TV Oklahoma City (Okla.), Sept 27, 2022

The Indian Ridge Fire started by lightning on July 7th in the Indian Creek drainage in Idaho’s Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness.  It is burning five miles from the Idaho/Montana border and is approximately 30 miles southwest of Darby, MT.   The fire is burning in very steep, rugged, and remote terrain with heavy surface fuels and dead standing timber making access for firefighters difficult and dangerous.Fire managers are utilizing a point protection strategy to prevent any critical wilderness infrastructure from being negatively impacted by the

The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority was waiving the usual entrance fees for towns wanting to join the regional water system as high levels of bacteria, mandatory drought restrictions and limited supply affected South Shore communities. Patriot Ledger (Quincy, Mass.), Sept 26, 2022

The Cheyenne Bottoms Wildlife Refuge was dry after the past summer, and drought devastated the fish population, leaving dead fish on dry land. Whooping cranes and shore birds may not stop at the refuge this fall and keep flying in search of food and water. Great Bend Tribune (Kan.), Sept 24, 2022

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 27 17:56:16 UTC 2022.