Aggregator

WW 609 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NJ NY RI VT CW 211750Z - 220100Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Far southern Maine Southern New Hampshire Northern New Jersey Southeast New York Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify particularly across far eastern New York and southern New England, near and south of a warm front that will continue to spread slowly northward. Some supercells with a hail/tornado risk aside from damaging winds are most probable across southern New England, with damaging winds otherwise expected with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Poughkeepsie NY to 40 miles east of Boston MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW DCA TO 15 WSW BWI TO 30 NE BWI TO 15 SSW TTN TO 5 E EWR. ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-212340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-017-029-033-035-041-212340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CHARLES KENT PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-025-029-033-212340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW DCA TO 15 WSW BWI TO 30 NE BWI TO 15 SSW TTN TO 5 E EWR. ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-212340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-017-029-033-035-041-212340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CHARLES KENT PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-025-029-033-212340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER Read more

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 611 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830 ..DIAL..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-025-031-035-039-041-059-069-089-101-119-123- 220040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON LARIMER OTERO PUEBLO TELLER WELD WYC001-015-021-031-220040- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212310
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Ivo are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Ivo are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Brown

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 611 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830 ..EDWARDS..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-025-031-035-039-041-059-069-089-101-119-123- 212340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON LARIMER OTERO PUEBLO TELLER WELD WYC001-015-021-031-212340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 611 SEVERE TSTM CO WY 212045Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 611 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms, in the form of sustained multicells and a few transient supercells, are expected to develop along the foothills/I-25 corridor of eastern Colorado into southeast Wyoming. Isolated large hail will be the primary risk as storms drift east-southeastward through late afternoon/evening, although localized severe-caliber winds could also occur, particularly across east-central Colorado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northeast of Laramie WY to 30 miles southeast of Pueblo CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 609...WW 610... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1830 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611... FOR CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1830 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...central Colorado through southeast Wyoming Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611... Valid 212239Z - 220015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611 continues. SUMMARY...A few instances of hail and locally strong wind gusts remain possible from central CO through southeast WY through 00Z, but overall threat is expected to become increasingly marginal with onset of nocturnal cooling. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms continue over the higher terrain, but coverage has remained sparse across most of CO into southeast WY. With upper ridging aloft, the primary forcing mechanism has been heating and upslope component over the higher terrain. While the downstream atmosphere is moderately unstable with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, westerly winds aloft remain modest with generally 15-20 kt in the 700-400 mb layer. Limited storm coverage with low confidence that storms will be able to consolidate, along with weak flow aloft and increasing convective inhibition, all lower confidence that activity will be able to move off the higher terrain. Nevertheless, what storms that do develop will remain capable of producing a few instances of hail and locally strong wind gusts next couple hours. ..Dial.. 08/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 42140512 40220442 38200424 38080505 40140558 42080591 42140512 Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW DCA TO 15 WSW BWI TO 30 NE BWI TO 15 SSW TTN TO 5 E EWR. ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-212340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-017-029-033-035-041-212340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CHARLES KENT PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-025-029-033-212340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER Read more

WW 610 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 211925Z - 220200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland New Jersey Eastern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify, initially along and west of the I-95 corridor this afternoon. The strongest of these storms will be capable of damaging winds and possibly severe hail as they spread east-northeastward through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Allentown PA to 25 miles southeast of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 609... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25020. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
340- STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE NEL TO 5 W EWR TO 25 NNW EWR TO 30 SSE MSV TO 20 NE MSV TO 35 N POU TO 10 WNW PSF TO 30 W EEN TO 25 WSW LCI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829 ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-212340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MEC031-212340- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YORK MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 212340- Read more

WW 609 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NJ NY RI VT CW 211750Z - 220100Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Far southern Maine Southern New Hampshire Northern New Jersey Southeast New York Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify particularly across far eastern New York and southern New England, near and south of a warm front that will continue to spread slowly northward. Some supercells with a hail/tornado risk aside from damaging winds are most probable across southern New England, with damaging winds otherwise expected with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Poughkeepsie NY to 40 miles east of Boston MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1829 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1829 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...portions of New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609... Valid 212220Z - 220015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of WW609 with severe wind as the primary threat. Large hail and a brief, weak tornado or two are possible as well. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to move and develop eastward across New England ahead of an upper-level shortwave trough. A mixed storm mode is evident with a broken line of storms stretching from southwest Maine to south of Albany along a surface pressure trough and discrete cells developing within the warm sector ahead of the line. MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear will support some weaker supercells and a few of those have been observed across New England in the last hour. While damaging wind is the main severe threat, marginally large hail and a brief, weak tornado are possible with any of the stronger, especially discrete, cells. Areas with more of a easterly component in the surface wind will increase hodograph curvature/low-level SRH and be the favored location for these stronger storms. The severe threat will diminish from west to east as storms moves eastward into the evening. ..Nauslar/Grams.. 08/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40567452 41907438 42657348 43327210 43687143 43747075 43517023 42937018 42177022 41647024 41367036 41167058 41047099 40607338 40467409 40567452 Read more

MD 1828 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1828 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0516 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212216Z - 220015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms may produce a few instances of strong but mostly sub-severe wind gusts as they move through central North Carolina next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Storms that developed over the mountains of western NC earlier this afternoon have consolidated into a squall line as they approach central NC. The downstream atmosphere is weakly capped and moderately unstable with temperatures around 90F supporting 2000 J/kg MCLAPE. Multicell storms are expected to continue through central NC next couple hours and might eventually interact with the seabreeze which could support brief intensification, before subsequently diminishing as they continue into eastern NC. Isolated strong wind gusts should remain the primary threat next couple hours. ..Dial/Grams.. 08/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP... LAT...LON 36227910 36327853 36047764 35507810 35017902 34887982 35168043 35787962 36227910 Read more

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 212210 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 2...Correction NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Corrected storm ID in header block ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IVO... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 109.5W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 109.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest is expected by Thursday, with a northwestward motion continuing through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected and Ivo is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IVO... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Ivo was located near 15.8, -109.5 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

The past 45 days of dry weather and extreme temperatures hurt crops in Hardin County. The corn made it through pollination, but endured dryness during the grain fill period, affecting kernel depth and yield. Early planted corn may be average to slightly above average yield, but late-planted corn will probably be well below average. Many cattle producers began feeding hay in recent days, and shallow stock ponds have begun to run dry. Pastures were turning brown. Soybeans were at a critical stage and will likely produce small grain, given the dry weather. The News-Enterprise (Elizabethtown, Ky.), Aug. 18, 2019

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212203 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 2...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Corrected storm ID in header block Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And, although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours, the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear. This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is close to the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 212201 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 CORRECTED STORM ID IN THE HEADER BLOCK THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 21 21:56:02 UTC 2019.