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WW 0543 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W SHD TO 5 N HGR TO 30 WSW ABE. ..MOSIER..09/25/22 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-251940- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-510-251940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 543 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 251540Z - 252300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland South central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia The eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1140 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely persist through the afternoon, with some additional storm development expected. The storm environment favors a mix of supercells and line segments with attendant threats of damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Harrisburg PA to 40 miles east of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Thompson Read more

WW 543 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 251540Z - 252300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland South central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia The eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1140 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely persist through the afternoon, with some additional storm development expected. The storm environment favors a mix of supercells and line segments with attendant threats of damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Harrisburg PA to 40 miles east of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Thompson Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Newton, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Newton, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Expanded the Elevated delineation farther west across South Dakota and south into Nebraska based on morning high resolution guidance. Elsewhere, the forecast appears on track and no additional changes were needed. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will intensify across the Great Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic. In the West, ridging aloft will amplify while slowly shifting east. At the surface, A cold front will continue southward through the southern Plains while moving off the east coast during the evening. Elevated fire weather is expected within portions of the Plains as relatively dry and gusty northerly/northwesterly winds develop during the day/afternoon. Winds will be strongest in parts of the Dakotas into eastern Nebraska, with diminishing strength farther south into Oklahoma. RH of around 20-25% appears likely be afternoon along with wind speeds of 15-25 mph. While these conditions could extend from the northern Plains into the southern Plains, recent precipitation in many areas has reduced fuel dryness. The areas of greatest concern will be in central/eastern South Dakota, far northern Nebraska, and central/southern Oklahoma. Elsewhere, locally elevated conditions may still occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Expanded the Elevated delineation farther west across South Dakota and south into Nebraska based on morning high resolution guidance. Elsewhere, the forecast appears on track and no additional changes were needed. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will intensify across the Great Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic. In the West, ridging aloft will amplify while slowly shifting east. At the surface, A cold front will continue southward through the southern Plains while moving off the east coast during the evening. Elevated fire weather is expected within portions of the Plains as relatively dry and gusty northerly/northwesterly winds develop during the day/afternoon. Winds will be strongest in parts of the Dakotas into eastern Nebraska, with diminishing strength farther south into Oklahoma. RH of around 20-25% appears likely be afternoon along with wind speeds of 15-25 mph. While these conditions could extend from the northern Plains into the southern Plains, recent precipitation in many areas has reduced fuel dryness. The areas of greatest concern will be in central/eastern South Dakota, far northern Nebraska, and central/southern Oklahoma. Elsewhere, locally elevated conditions may still occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... The risk for showers and isolated thunderstorms capable of producing strong wind gusts, and perhaps brief tornadoes, may begin to increase late Monday night (toward daybreak Tuesday) across parts of the lower Florida Keys. ...Discussion... Models suggest that there will be little change to the amplified mid/upper flow regime now developing across North America, through at least daybreak Tuesday. This will include prominent ridging across the Pacific coast through much of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, and large-scale downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. The cold front associated with a reinforcing intrusion of cool and/or dry air to the east of the Rockies is forecast to slowly advance offshore of much of the middle and southern Atlantic coast, and into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Monday night. This will leave generally stable conditions in its wake, aside from those areas beneath colder mid-level air across parts of the lower Great Lakes region into the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, where a few thunderstorms are possible. In lower latitudes, the center of developing Hurricane Ian is forecast to migrate north-northwestward into the vicinity of far western Cuba by daybreak Tuesday. Strengthening easterly to southeasterly low-level wind fields may be accompanied by sufficient enlargement of increasingly clockwise curved low-level hodographs, and boundary-layer moistening, to begin contributing to increasing potential for brief tornadoes and/or severe wind gusts in convection as far northeast as the lower Florida Keys late Monday night. ..Kerr.. 09/25/2022 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... The risk for showers and isolated thunderstorms capable of producing strong wind gusts, and perhaps brief tornadoes, may begin to increase late Monday night (toward daybreak Tuesday) across parts of the lower Florida Keys. ...Discussion... Models suggest that there will be little change to the amplified mid/upper flow regime now developing across North America, through at least daybreak Tuesday. This will include prominent ridging across the Pacific coast through much of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, and large-scale downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. The cold front associated with a reinforcing intrusion of cool and/or dry air to the east of the Rockies is forecast to slowly advance offshore of much of the middle and southern Atlantic coast, and into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Monday night. This will leave generally stable conditions in its wake, aside from those areas beneath colder mid-level air across parts of the lower Great Lakes region into the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, where a few thunderstorms are possible. In lower latitudes, the center of developing Hurricane Ian is forecast to migrate north-northwestward into the vicinity of far western Cuba by daybreak Tuesday. Strengthening easterly to southeasterly low-level wind fields may be accompanied by sufficient enlargement of increasingly clockwise curved low-level hodographs, and boundary-layer moistening, to begin contributing to increasing potential for brief tornadoes and/or severe wind gusts in convection as far northeast as the lower Florida Keys late Monday night. ..Kerr.. 09/25/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms producing damaging winds and severe hail are expected across portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon through evening. ...Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the upper OH Valley will eject eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, in response to an upstream shortwave trough digging south-southeastward from MB toward the upper MS Valley. Some deepening of a surface cyclone is expected in the vicinity of the lower Great Lakes in association with the ejecting midlevel trough, and a weak cold front will progress eastward across the Appalachians by this afternoon to the south of the deepening cyclone. The cyclone warm sector will not be particularly warm or moist, but a narrow zone of cloud breaks from southern PA into WV should allow surface temperatures to warm into the 70s with dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60. The warming surface temperatures and notable midlevel cooling/steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates (observed at ILN from 00 to 12z) will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range in a narrow zone immediately ahead of the weak cold front this afternoon. The specific location and evolution of the main severe threat is a bit uncertain given the presence of clouds and early convection, with the potential for the stronger storms to evolve from the leading edge of the ongoing convection in PA/WV, and farther west within the band of ascent. The weak buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates will combine with strengthening midlevel winds to provide an environment favorable for damaging winds with fast-moving, low-topped clusters/bands of convection spreading eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast through late afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail may also occur with any stronger storms/supercells given the long hodographs and cool midlevel temperatures, and low-level shear will be strong enough to support a low-end threat for a tornado or two. ...Southern Appalachians this afternoon... The southern fringe of the OH Valley midlevel trough will move over the southern Appalachians this afternoon, along with the remnant monsoonal moisture plume. Clouds/ongoing convection will tend to disrupt surface heating across northern AL/GA and southeast TN, and the southern fringe of the somewhat stronger forcing for ascent with the OH Valley trough is expected to pass over eastern KY/WV/VA. Thus, with modest buoyancy and the aforementioned concerns, storm coverage into the southern Appalachians is uncertain. Where storms form with afternoon heating in cloud breaks, there will be the potential for isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...WI/southwest Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... The shortwave trough now approaching northern MN will reach WI later this afternoon/evening, and then continue southeastward to Lower MI tonight. Cooling midlevel temperatures, residual low-level moisture, and surface heating in cloud breaks will support the potential for low-topped thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon across WI. Lapse rates will be sufficiently steep and midlevel flow sufficiently strong for a low-end threat for wind damage. Despite arrival after the diurnal cycle, the threat for isolated wind damage could persist across Lake MI into southwest Lower MI, where the relatively warm lake will help maintain weak buoyancy and low-level lapse rates after sunset. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/25/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms producing damaging winds and severe hail are expected across portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon through evening. ...Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the upper OH Valley will eject eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, in response to an upstream shortwave trough digging south-southeastward from MB toward the upper MS Valley. Some deepening of a surface cyclone is expected in the vicinity of the lower Great Lakes in association with the ejecting midlevel trough, and a weak cold front will progress eastward across the Appalachians by this afternoon to the south of the deepening cyclone. The cyclone warm sector will not be particularly warm or moist, but a narrow zone of cloud breaks from southern PA into WV should allow surface temperatures to warm into the 70s with dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60. The warming surface temperatures and notable midlevel cooling/steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates (observed at ILN from 00 to 12z) will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range in a narrow zone immediately ahead of the weak cold front this afternoon. The specific location and evolution of the main severe threat is a bit uncertain given the presence of clouds and early convection, with the potential for the stronger storms to evolve from the leading edge of the ongoing convection in PA/WV, and farther west within the band of ascent. The weak buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates will combine with strengthening midlevel winds to provide an environment favorable for damaging winds with fast-moving, low-topped clusters/bands of convection spreading eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast through late afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail may also occur with any stronger storms/supercells given the long hodographs and cool midlevel temperatures, and low-level shear will be strong enough to support a low-end threat for a tornado or two. ...Southern Appalachians this afternoon... The southern fringe of the OH Valley midlevel trough will move over the southern Appalachians this afternoon, along with the remnant monsoonal moisture plume. Clouds/ongoing convection will tend to disrupt surface heating across northern AL/GA and southeast TN, and the southern fringe of the somewhat stronger forcing for ascent with the OH Valley trough is expected to pass over eastern KY/WV/VA. Thus, with modest buoyancy and the aforementioned concerns, storm coverage into the southern Appalachians is uncertain. Where storms form with afternoon heating in cloud breaks, there will be the potential for isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...WI/southwest Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... The shortwave trough now approaching northern MN will reach WI later this afternoon/evening, and then continue southeastward to Lower MI tonight. Cooling midlevel temperatures, residual low-level moisture, and surface heating in cloud breaks will support the potential for low-topped thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon across WI. Lapse rates will be sufficiently steep and midlevel flow sufficiently strong for a low-end threat for wind damage. Despite arrival after the diurnal cycle, the threat for isolated wind damage could persist across Lake MI into southwest Lower MI, where the relatively warm lake will help maintain weak buoyancy and low-level lapse rates after sunset. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/25/2022 Read more

MD 1823 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1823 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Areas affected...Southern WV...Southwest VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251614Z - 251815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms are expected to continue eastward into more of southern WV and western VA over the next few hours. A few strong gusts and isolated hail may accompany these storms. Convective trends will be monitored closely for the possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown in increase in storm intensity and coverage across southern WV and the KY/VA border vicinity. This increase appears to be associated with strengthening forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough moving through the upper OH Valley. Brief clearing ahead of the ascent has allowed temperatures to increase into the mid to upper 60s. Even so, dewpoints remain in the mid 50s and the overall thermodynamic profile is characterized by modest buoyancy and relatively low EL heights. This should result in predominantly low-topped storms. Recent mesoanalysis places a corridor of 60 kt 500-mb winds from eastern KY through western VA. Fast (i.e. 40+ kt) storm motion is expected as a result, as well as the potential for a few stronger wind gusts as the storms move through. As such, damaging gusts will be the main severe threat, although isolated hail is also possible within robust updrafts given the cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 09/25/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 37518209 38068128 38278036 37937919 37057941 36588046 36638297 37518209 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 14:29:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 15:35:39 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251429 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Newton barely qualifies as a tropical depression this morning, with a small area of not-exactly-organized deep convection, which has been weakening during the past few hours. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, perhaps generously. The system should gradually weaken due to persistent southerly shear helping to entrain drier air into the circulation. This environment should eliminate any significant convection by this evening, and remnant low status is now indicated in 12 hours. The depression is turning leftward, with the motion now estimated at 240/8 kt. Newton should move southwestward during the next few days due to the orientation of the low-level ridge, and the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast for track or intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 19.0N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251429 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Newton barely qualifies as a tropical depression this morning, with a small area of not-exactly-organized deep convection, which has been weakening during the past few hours. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, perhaps generously. The system should gradually weaken due to persistent southerly shear helping to entrain drier air into the circulation. This environment should eliminate any significant convection by this evening, and remnant low status is now indicated in 12 hours. The depression is turning leftward, with the motion now estimated at 240/8 kt. Newton should move southwestward during the next few days due to the orientation of the low-level ridge, and the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast for track or intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 19.0N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251428 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251428 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251428 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251428 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251428 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Newton Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...NEWTON FORECAST TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 116.4W ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Newton was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 116.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the southwest is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Newton should degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Monday, and the wind speed is forecast to gradually decrease through midweek. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake