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Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 706 WTPZ45 KNHC 231449 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Newton has had deep, persistent convection through the morning with cloud top temperatures are below -75 degrees C. Microwave imagery shows a small inner core, but not with the same definition as yesterday. A blend of the satellite Dvorak estimates supports an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Gradual weakening is expected while the storm moves into a drier, more stable environment to the north. Statistical model guidance also indicates vertical wind shear to increase in a day or so which is likely to contribute to additional weakening. Eventual transition into a remnant low is forecast within about three days, and little change was made to the previous NHC prediction. Newton is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt along the southwest edge of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico, although there is some uncertainty in the initial position since the low-level center has tucked up underneath a burst of convection. The center is estimated to be slightly north of the previous track forecast, and therefore the short-term model track guidance has shifted northward as well. Beyond 24 hours, the official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and within the small spread of the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 18.4N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 19.7N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 19.5N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 18.6N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022 688 FOPZ15 KNHC 231449 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ISLA SOCORRO 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 34 X 8( 8) 34(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022 690 WTPZ25 KNHC 231449 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.9W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.9W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.7N 115.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.5N 116.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.6N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 689 WTPZ35 KNHC 231449 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 ...NEWTON NEARING SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 110.9W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 110.9 West. Newton is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. A west-southwestward turn is forecast by Sunday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and Newton is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low late on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...NEWTON NEARING SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 the center of Newton was located near 18.4, -110.9 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

The Twist Creek Fire started by lightning on August 23rd is located 28 miles southeast of Elk City, Idaho and 2 miles south of Sabe Vista along the Magruder Corridor in Idaho’s Frank Church of No Return Wilderness.Structure protection  has been complete at the  Horse Heaven Cabin and along the Magruder Corridor. Fire managers are utilizing a point protection strategy to prevent any critical wilderness infrastructure from being negatively impacted by the

Fierce heat and drought in Arkansas limited hay and grass growth. August rains allowed farmers to grow some hay, but farmers still do not have enough to get through the winter. KTHV-TV Little Rock (Ark.), Sept 21, 2022

Iowa's drought has been hard on the soybean crop, apart from the northeast part of the state. An agronomist in the west central part of the state expected that many fields may yield 45 to 55 bushels per acre. AgUpdate (Tekamah, Neb.), Sept. 22, 2022

Inflation and drought are testing Oklahoma farmers and ranchers. Many worry about finances and whether they can keep the farm going as generations before them did. The stress and pressure can take a mental toll. KSWO-TV ABC 7 (Lawton, Okla.), Sept 22, 2022

Kansas will provide emergency drought assistance for agricultural businesses dealing with water shortages. The assistance comes as part of the state's Economic Recovery Loan Deposit Program, which has identified $60 million in funds to provide low-interest loans for agricultural businesses. KSHB-TV NBC 41 Kansas City (Mo.), Sept 22, 2022

Drought on Long Island has made produce smaller and required farmers to work harder, moving irrigation equipment to keep the crops alive. The fuel for irrigation is a large expense and cuts into profit. The corn maze is shorter than usual, and the pumpkins smaller, too. News 12 The Bronx (New York), Sept 21, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 22 17:52:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 22 17:52:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the southern Great Plains while a mid-level trough will progress east across the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. A narrow moist sector resulting in weak instability may result in a few thunderstorms across the eastern Dakotas and parts of the Upper Midwest. Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are also forecast across the FL Peninsula and the Desert Southwest. Weak buoyancy/shear will preclude organized severe thunderstorms. ..Smith.. 09/22/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Newton, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located just off the coast
of southern Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while
it moves west-northwestward off the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Newton are issued
under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Newton are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Morning observations show winds across the Columbia Basin sustained at 10-15 mph, gusting to around 20 mph, with temperatures warming into the mid 50s to 60s. Through the afternoon, increasing westerly winds and downslope warming and drying could lead to elevated fire-weather conditions. See discussion below for more details. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 09/22/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid/upper-level low will cross the northern Rockies, while an expansive large-scale ridge remains centered over TX. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending southward along the central High Plains. ...Columbia Basin... On the backside of the mid/upper-level low, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, favoring dry/breezy conditions across the Columbia Basin. Here, 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coupled with 20-25 percent RH (aided by downslope warming/drying) will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Northern/Central Rockies and Adjacent Plains... Breezy southerly surface winds will develop across the northern and central Plains in response to the lee troughing, while strong westerly surface winds are expected over WY. For the Plains, a minimal overlap of strong surface winds and low RH should generally mitigate the fire-weather threat, though locally elevated conditions could still occur where fuels are dry. Over WY, a corridor of strong westerly surface winds could overlap dry boundary-layer conditions, though recent/ongoing precipitation casts uncertainty on fuel receptiveness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHEAST WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds remain possible this afternoon from coastal southern New England into eastern North Carolina. Isolated marginally severe hail/wind may also occur across a portion of southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming later this afternoon. ...Southern New England to NC... Potential still exists for convection to briefly strengthen from NJ to southern New England. A confined corridor of robust insolation from NJ southward yielded surface temperatures warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s just ahead of mixed convective/stratiform frontal rain bands. The time-window for convection to intensify before the front shifts off the coast is limited to the next hour or two, but strong deep-layer flow will support a conditional damaging wind threat along the immediate coastal areas. From the Delmarva into eastern NC, a longer duration period of robust boundary-layer heating will yield very warm surface temperatures and a relatively deeper mixed boundary-layer. Observed 12Z soundings sampled very poor 600-400 mb lapse rates south of the intense mid-level jet centered across the Mid-Atlantic to New England, where 500-mb temps were -4 to -6 C. This suggests convection developing along the trailing extent of the cold front impinging from the northwest will struggle to deepen and produce lightning. By late afternoon, there may just enough slight cooling aloft coupled with peak boundary-layer heating to support a few stronger gusts in convection that spreads towards the coast through early evening. ...Southeast MT and northeast WY... A shortwave trough centered on northwest MT will gradually shift east across the state through the period. While a leading lobe of ascent is moving through eastern MT late this morning, the next lobe will shift east-northeast from the Yellowstone/Upper Snake Valley area. A pocket of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop between these two waves in the lee of the Big Horns where steepening mid-level lapse rates overspread modest boundary-layer heating. Although forecast soundings indicate pronounced weaknesses in the hodograph through 600 mb where surface-based storms are expected, strong speed shear above that will yield potential for a few cells with transient mid-level rotation. Marginally severe hail and isolated strong to localized severe wind gusts will be possible for a few hours centered on late afternoon. ..Grams/Lyons.. 09/22/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2022 14:48:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2022 15:35:18 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221446 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Newton remains a small, well-organized tropical cyclone. A microwave pass from 1210 UTC revealed a tiny eye-like feature. While the central dense overcast has warmed, upper-level outflow is still prominent in the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, and new deep convection continues to form in the core. There is still a relatively large range of satellite intensity estimates (35-55 kt), likely due to the small size of the cyclone, but the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt with the improved microwave structure. The storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. A ridge to the northeast is steering Newton and should be the dominant synoptic feature influencing the track for the next few days. The track prediction is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and in the center of the tightly clustered model guidance. The intensity forecast for this system remains somewhat uncertain. Global model guidance has largely missed the development and intensification of Newton, again, possibly due to its size. Statistical guidance suggests the cyclone will be in a conducive atmospheric environment for the next 24 hours before the vertical wind shear increases and mid-level moisture begins to decrease further. Sea surface temperatures are expected to also gradually decrease as Newton moves near the cold wake of Kay and Madeline. The official intensity forecast keeps Newton at 55 kt before weakening begins in 24 hours through the end of the forecast as oceanic and atmospheric conditions become less favorable. The prediction still shows Newton as a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.9N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 18.1N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 18.4N 110.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.0N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 19.4N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 19.6N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/1200Z 19.8N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci