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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms developing this evening and overnight tonight will pose a risk for severe hail and wind across the north central Plains into lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible along the outflow boundary extending from northern AR across TN, eastern KY, and into far eastern OH. Vertical shear is weak, leading to transient updrafts along the boundary but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy support water-loading and strong wet downbursts. Farther west across central High Plains, thunderstorms ongoing within the moist and steep lapse rate environment continue to pose a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts. A tornado or two also still remains possible. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen tonight across the southern and central Plains, contributing to an increase in thunderstorms across NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates (sampled well by the 00Z LBF sounding) and very moist low-levels will likely result in strong updrafts capable of hail. Some potential exists upscale growth and the development of a deep cold pool, resulting in a forward-propagating MCS. This MCS would pose a threat for strong wind gusts and large hail. ..Mosier.. 08/21/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms developing this evening and overnight tonight will pose a risk for severe hail and wind across the north central Plains into lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible along the outflow boundary extending from northern AR across TN, eastern KY, and into far eastern OH. Vertical shear is weak, leading to transient updrafts along the boundary but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy support water-loading and strong wet downbursts. Farther west across central High Plains, thunderstorms ongoing within the moist and steep lapse rate environment continue to pose a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts. A tornado or two also still remains possible. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen tonight across the southern and central Plains, contributing to an increase in thunderstorms across NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates (sampled well by the 00Z LBF sounding) and very moist low-levels will likely result in strong updrafts capable of hail. Some potential exists upscale growth and the development of a deep cold pool, resulting in a forward-propagating MCS. This MCS would pose a threat for strong wind gusts and large hail. ..Mosier.. 08/21/2019 Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE CHO TO 45 WSW DCA TO 10 WNW DCA TO 20 NW DCA TO 15 WSW BWI TO 25 ESE BWI. WW 605 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210100Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818 ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-210100- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC009-017-033-037-210100- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CHARLES PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS VAC013-059-099-153-177-179-510-600-610-630-683-685-210100- VA Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE CHO TO 45 WSW DCA TO 10 WNW DCA TO 20 NW DCA TO 15 WSW BWI TO 25 ESE BWI. WW 605 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210100Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818 ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-210100- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC009-017-033-037-210100- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CHARLES PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS VAC013-059-099-153-177-179-510-600-610-630-683-685-210100- VA Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE CHO TO 45 WSW DCA TO 10 WNW DCA TO 20 NW DCA TO 15 WSW BWI TO 25 ESE BWI. WW 605 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210100Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818 ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-210100- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC009-017-033-037-210100- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CHARLES PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS VAC013-059-099-153-177-179-510-600-610-630-683-685-210100- VA Read more

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E UNO TO 20 SSW POF TO 20 N DYR TO 40 WSW HOP TO 25 SSE BWG TO 65 W LOZ TO 35 ESE LEX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817 ..NAUSLAR..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC053-057-171-207-210040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLINTON CUMBERLAND MONROE RUSSELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E UNO TO 20 SSW POF TO 20 N DYR TO 40 WSW HOP TO 25 SSE BWG TO 65 W LOZ TO 35 ESE LEX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817 ..NAUSLAR..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC053-057-171-207-210040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLINTON CUMBERLAND MONROE RUSSELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E UNO TO 20 SSW POF TO 20 N DYR TO 40 WSW HOP TO 25 SSE BWG TO 65 W LOZ TO 35 ESE LEX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817 ..NAUSLAR..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC053-057-171-207-210040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLINTON CUMBERLAND MONROE RUSSELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SDF TO 20 W LUK TO 30 SW DAY TO 35 WNW DAY. ..NAUSLAR..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC015-037-077-081-117-187-191-202240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CAMPBELL GALLATIN GRANT KENTON OWEN PENDLETON OHC017-025-061-113-135-165-202240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CLERMONT HAMILTON MONTGOMERY PREBLE WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SDF TO 20 W LUK TO 30 SW DAY TO 35 WNW DAY. ..NAUSLAR..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC015-037-077-081-117-187-191-202240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CAMPBELL GALLATIN GRANT KENTON OWEN PENDLETON OHC017-025-061-113-135-165-202240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CLERMONT HAMILTON MONTGOMERY PREBLE WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SDF TO 20 W LUK TO 30 SW DAY TO 35 WNW DAY. ..NAUSLAR..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC015-037-077-081-117-187-191-202240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CAMPBELL GALLATIN GRANT KENTON OWEN PENDLETON OHC017-025-061-113-135-165-202240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CLERMONT HAMILTON MONTGOMERY PREBLE WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202334 CCA
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Corrected to add High Seas Forecast information

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico are beginning to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system
could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or two. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing limited shower and thunderstorms activity. Conditions have
become less conducive for development and the chance of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone is decreasing. The system is forecast
to move little during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico are beginning to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system
could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing limited shower and thunderstorms activity. Conditions have
become less conducive for development and the chance of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone is decreasing. The system is forecast
to move little during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

The Clallum County Public Utility District encouraged voluntary water conservation for customers of the Gales Addition, Mount Angeles and Monroe water systems, where Stage 2 water alerts were declared. Port Angeles Peninsula Daily News (Wash.), Aug. 19, 2019

A 90-day burn ban took effect in unincorporated parts of Galveston County as hot, dry weather increased the fire risk. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index for the county was 593. KPRC-TV NBC 2 Houston (Texas), Aug. 16, 2019

Belton residents were asked to voluntarily conserve water and limit non-essential water use as the community faced a mild water shortage. The city was in Stage 1 Drought Conditions due to unusually high water use. KXXV-TV ABC 25 Waco (Texas), Aug. 19, 2019

A burn ban took effect in Henderson County for the next 30 days as hot, dry conditions heighten the fire danger. Rusk County officials also adopted an outdoor burn ban. KLTV-TV ABC 7 Tyler (Texas), Aug. 20, 2019

The dry weather in northern Indiana affected crop production and caused soil issues and an increase in insect activity. The first cuttings of hay and alfalfa were excellent, but the yields were down for the second and third cuttings. ABC 57 WBND-TV South Bend News (Ind.), Aug. 16, 2019

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE FAM TO 15 W MDH TO 25 ESE MDH TO 5 SW EVV TO 45 WNW SDF TO 40 SE BMG TO 55 SE IND. ..CONIGLIO..08/20/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-181-202130- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI UNION INC019-043-061-077-123-143-147-175-202130- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON PERRY SCOTT SPENCER WASHINGTON KYC007-027-029-033-039-055-059-075-083-085-091-093-101-103-105- 107-111-123-139-143-145-149-157-163-177-179-183-185-211-215-223- 225-233-202130- Read more