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Drought has seared the corn in western Kansas, which could lead to higher prices for fuel with ethanol and corn-fed beef. Ethanol and livestock companies are shipping in corn from states like Iowa, Illinois and Ohio. It may be a challenge for corn-dependent businesses to remain profitable in Kansas, given the cost of corn. Corn production in Kansas is estimated at 628 million bushels this year, which is 122 million bushels less than the previous year. The difference of 122 million bushels multiplied by the present price of $8 per bushel puts the drought loss at nearly $1 billion. More than 50% of the state’s corn and sorghum were in poor or very poor condition, according to the USDA. Even some irrigated corn will be abandoned this year because center pivot sprinklers could not deliver enough water for the crop. High Plains Public Radio (Garden City, Kan.), Sept 20, 2022

As of September 10, 2022 the Aspen Fire is 100% contained. Some interior smokes may be visible. Crews continue to patrol

Heat and drought limited forage production in Nebraska and other drought-stricken areas, forcing cattle producers to weigh hay supplies against herd size for the winter. Many growers chopped drought-damaged crops for silage. Hay prices were much higher than last year. In central Nebraska, hay prices have increased about $40 to $50 per ton. In the Rock Valley, Iowa area, hay buyers were “very aggressive” in their hay purchases this summer, according to an auction owner. The demand has driven forage prices higher as buyers look to stock up on hay to get through the winter. At the Sept. 8 auction in northwest Iowa, alfalfa prices ranged from $215/ton to $300/ton with the mean being around $250/ton. Grass hay sold from $80/ton to $230/ton with the middle being around $165/ton. Drought severely cut into hay production in Nebraska. The Cornhusker state’s 2022 hay production was estimated at 4.83 million tons, 23.2% lower than the 2021 growing season. Total hay supply in 2022 is forecast to be 6.08 million tons, which is 16.6% lower than the previous year. DTN – Progressive Farmer (Burnsville, Minn.), Sept 19, 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 20 17:52:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 20 17:52:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently downgraded Tropical Depression Madeline, located a couple
of hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity just off the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Some slow development of this system is possible while the
disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward near the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure just offshore of southern Mexico remain
disorganized. Development, if any, of this system should be
slow to occur while it meanders off the coast of southern
Mexico through the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Pereira/Montgomery

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will be capable of a severe risk from Utah into Idaho and in a separate area over the Lower Great Lakes mainly Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Great Basin into the Northern Rockies... A mid-level low initially over northern CA will migrate northeastward during the period and reach the ID/OR border by early Thursday morning. A belt of strong 50+ kt southwesterly 500-mb flow will move through the base of the larger-scale trough and into UT during the day. A plume of adequate low-level moisture will extend from the Desert Southwest northward through the Eastern Great Basin and into ID during the day. Strong heating in the wake of some early day clouds over UT will favor the development of steep low- to mid-level lapse rates from southwest UT northward into ID in closer proximity to the mid-level low. Strengthening flow fields will promote some storm organization despite weak buoyancy (200-700 J/kg SBCAPE). Model CAM guidance indicates cells to cell-in-cluster convection. The heavier precip cores will be most conducive for severe gusts as they move across the outlook area during the afternoon and evening. ...Lower Great Lakes into the OH Valley... A weak mid-level ridge over the Lower Great Lakes in between two troughs early Wednesday morning will move east off the New England coast, as a large-scale mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest moves into the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will push southeastward across the Great Lakes during the period. Ahead of the front, a reservoir of relatively rich moisture (characterized by 65-70 deg F surface dewpoints) coupled with heating and advection of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (around 7-7.5 deg C/km) will result in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Supercell potential appears highest over the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. However, little speed shear in the westerly component to the 800-300mb flow will probably favor a relatively quick transition to a HP supercell structure and clustering. As a result, large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the primary hazards, although a localized risk for a supercell tornado is possible. This activity will likely diminish during the evening. ..Smith.. 09/20/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A conditional threat for a few supercells exists this evening across northwest Wisconsin into western Upper Michigan. Should storms become sustained, large hail and locally damaging winds will be the primary hazards. ...Northwest WI to western Upper MI vicinity... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding whether deep convection can become sustained this evening within the cat 2-SLGT risk. Will maintain it for the conditional threat of large hail. In the wake of an early-day MCS, with its remnants centered on southern Lake MI, a pronounced EML evident in 12Z soundings will inhibit surface-based thunderstorm development within the open warm sector. Storm potential will be tied to a cold front moving southeast across northern MN. However, guidance differs greatly with the degree of low-level convergence along the cold front during the early evening. Mid-level height falls do not appear to overspread the front until late evening/tonight as the Prairie Provinces positive-tilt shortwave trough begins to amplify. In addition, a plume of stratus remains entrenched across most of northwest/west-central WI, which will result in pronounced differential boundary-layer heating with greater insolation to the west/north of this plume. Most guidance suggests that little if any sustained convective development will occur. However, recent HRRR runs remain insistent that sustained deep convection will occur across northwest WI into the western Upper MI given its warmer boundary layer than other guidance. Robust speed shear yielding a rather elongated hodograph above the LFC amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will favor a conditional threat for large hail. This threat corridor may remain rather confined given the recent satellite trends and likelihood of pronounced MLCIN with southeast extent ahead of the front. ...Southern Lower MI vicinity... Remnants of an early-day MCS persist across southern Lake MI. See MCD 1805 for short-term forecast discussion. While this should gradually subside through the afternoon given the paucity of downstream surface-based buoyancy, low-level WAA will remain focused within this region, likely yielding persistent elevated convection. Another round of nocturnal strengthening is possible tonight along the periphery of the Upper Midwest EML. While a cluster mode will dominate, an adequate combination of MUCAPE and cloud-bearing shear will exist for a threat of marginally severe hail. ..Grams/Lyons.. 09/20/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Morning observations across south central Kansas/northern Oklahoma show south to southwest winds around 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph ahead of a southward advancing cold front located across northern Kansas. Winds will persist through the afternoon amid decreasing relative humidity as mixing increases through the day, creating a period of elevated fire-weather conditions. Elsewhere the forecast is on track in the Pacific Northwest with elevated fire-weather conditions expected along and east of the Cascades. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 09/20/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022/ ...Synopsis... An expansive large-scale ridge will remain centered over the southern Plains, while a closed mid/upper-level low drifts slowly eastward toward northern California. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern Great Basin, while high pressure expands southward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains behind a southward-advancing cold front. ...Intermountain West... Between the surface low over the northern Great Basin and building high pressure over the northern Rockies/adjacent Plains, a tight pressure gradient will favor 15-20 mph northerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades. These winds, coupled with 15-20 percent minimum RH should yield elevated fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fuels over the area. The strongest sustained surface winds will likely develop over the southwestern portion of the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. ...Central and Southern Plains... Ahead of the southward-advancing cold front, breezy southerly surface winds near 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) will overlap 25 percent minimum RH, resulting in elevated fire-weather conditions. The best overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH is expected over south-central KS into northwest OK during the afternoon. ...Great Basin... Downstream of the closed mid/upper-level low, a belt of strong south-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a deepening boundary layer over parts of NV into western UT. This will likely lead to strong/gusty surface winds amid critically low RH. However, fuels do not appear overly receptive to large-fire spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The corn yield in Robertson County was one-third to one-half of a normal crop for a grower in Orlinda. Rainfall in the mid-April to mid-July window was just two inches, compared to a typical 10 to 12 inches during that time. Inflation and supply chain issues made this the most expensive crop that he ever planted, so a better harvest was needed. WTVF-TV CBS 5 Nashville (Tenn.), Sept 20, 2022

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2022 14:43:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2022 15:36:06 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 186 WTPZ44 KNHC 201443 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Madeline Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Madeline is close to becoming a post-tropical cyclone, having produced little deep convection overnight. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease and, based on these and the earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. The storm is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in 12 hours or less due to persistent shear, dry air and cool waters. It is possible Madeline will produce occasional short-lived bursts of convection after it moves away from the cooler ocean waters stirred up by Kay. However, model guidance suggests this convective activity will not be enough to redevelop Madeline as a tropical system. The remnant low is expected to open up into a trough by the end of the forecast period. Madeline is moving west at 7 kt. This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-southwest in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the previous advisory and close to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1200Z 21.4N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 21.4N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 21.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 21.0N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 20.8N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 20.8N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 201442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 201442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Madeline Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 ...MADELINE FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON... ...ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 112.0W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Madeline was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 112.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn west-southwestward later this week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Madeline is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southern Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...MADELINE FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON... ...ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 the center of Madeline was located near 21.2, -112.0 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 201442 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.4N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.4N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.0N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.8N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.8N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 112.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

A major Ips Engraver beetle outbreak is occurring in the Denver metro area with the insects attacking spruce and Austrian pine trees. Heat and drought stressed area trees, making them more vulnerable to the beetles. 9News (Denver, Colo.), September 19, 2022

Drought has cut alfalfa yields and driven up feed prices from $100 per ton a couple of years ago to $300 per tons at present. The scarcity and cost of feed has prompted many cattle producers to ship their cattle to feed lots earlier than usual. Cowboy State Daily (Lander, Wyo.), Sept 13, 2022

Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt issued an executive order on Sept. 12 to bring drought relief to Oklahoma farmers and ranchers. An Emergency Drought Commission will be formed and will have the authority to allocate funds. KOKH FOX 25 (Okla.), Sept 13, 2022

Drought drove cattle sales to highs not seen in a decade. Cattle sales in Texas have topped 2.66 million head so far in 2022, which is more than 480,000 more cattle than sold by this time last year. Large numbers of breeding stock were sent to feedlots, and cow slaughter numbers were up significantly, over 80,000 per week in July for the highest cattle liquidation since 2011. Texas Farm Bureau (Waco), Sept 14, 2022