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 The Owl Fire is 100% Contained.  The page will be updated if conditions

The lightning fire is located approximately four (4) miles northeast of the confluence of Big Creek and the Middle Fork of the Salmon River in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness on the North Fork Ranger District. The fire is burning in spruce and fir is located in steep, rugged terrain.Risk to responders and public safety are the top priorities for the Wolf Fang Fire. Due to the inaccessibility of the terrain and snag hazards, a combination of the Middle Fork Peak lookout, a remote camera, and aviation are assessing the fire daily.

Kansas wheat growers were planting into dry soil. In the USDA’s Small Grains 2022 Summary released on September 30, USDA slashed Kansas wheat production to 244.2 million bushels, compared with 364 million bushels in 2021. Due to the persistent drought, USDA reported 700,000 acres were planted to wheat, but not harvested, and yields fell to an average of 37 bushels per acre, well below 52 bushels per acre in 2021 and 45 bushels per acre in 2020. Kansas Wheat (Manhattan, Kan.), Oct 12, 2022 The difficult choice for Kansas winter wheat growers: wait for moisture or plant into very dry soil and hope for rain? About 50% of Kansas wheat has been planted, per the Kansas Farm Bureau. But, due to drought, only 19% of the wheat has emerged. And if a late crop manages to survive a cold winter, the yield can be reduced by up to 35%. KAKE ABC 10 Wichita (Kan.), Oct 11, 2022

Extremely dry weather caused water mains to break in Rogers County. Mechanical issues at the water treatment plant and breaks in two different waterlines left some customers with low water pressure and others with no water at all. Water conservation is urged. KOTV-TV CBS 6 Tulsa (Okla.), Oct 11, 2022

The lack of rain led several Kentucky and southern Indiana counties to issue burn bans to avoid more fire activity and the spread of fires. Washington, Scott and Clark counties in southern Indiana were under burn bans, while 15 western counties had burn bans, according to KY.gov. WDRB Louisville (Ky.) Oct 11, 2022

The Lee Creek Reservoir boat ramp closed on Sept. 14, due to the low water level, but the ramp at the dam tailwaters remained open. Fort Smith Southwest Times Record (Ark.), Oct 11, 2022

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Near the coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Gulf
of Tehuantepec southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated
with a surface trough and Julia's remnants. Development, if any,
of this system is likely to be slow to occur due to dry air aloft
and marginal upper-level winds. This system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico,
through the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall could cause flash flooding across portions of southern
Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, a few of which may produce strong/gusty winds and marginal hail, are expected Wednesday across parts of the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, and westward to the Arklatex region. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward from the Plains on Wednesday morning, becoming oriented from the Upper Midwest to the Southeast by Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the Midwest, and decreasing with southward extent into the southern U.S. At the surface, a cold front extending from WI southwestward into western OK/northwest TX will sweep eastward during the forecast period. By Thursday morning, the front is expected to extend from western NY/PA toward Middle TN, southwestward toward the TX coast. ...Middle TN into the OH Valley Vicinity... Stronger vertical shear will be in place across the region, closer to the core of the upper trough and within the stronger surface pressure gradient associated with a low over Ontario. South/southwesterly low-level flow will bring a narrow corridor of upper 50s and 60s F surface dewpoints northward ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating will be limited by cloud cover and possibly early day showers. However, cooling aloft will support modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, and MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will be possible amid 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Transient supercells and briefly organized clusters could produce isolated strong storms capable of hail and strong gusts. Low-level instability will be limited, but enlarged, favorably curved surface-3 km hodographs suggest a brief tornado also could occur. ...AR into western TN/northern MS Vicinity... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon across AR and shift east/southeast into western TN and northern MS. Some guidance suggest an increase in hail and strong gust potential will accompany these cells. Stronger heating is expected along this corridor ahead of the front, resulting in steeper low-level lapse rates, while cooling aloft associated with the main upper trough supports steepening mid-level lapse rates. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt and favorable hodographs suggest some rotating cells will be possible. A narrow corridor of relative greater severe potential may exist within this corridor and an upgrade to Slight risk may be needed in subsequent outlooks if forecast confidence increases. ...Southern MS/AL... A lead shortwave impulse is expected to move across MS/AL during the morning/early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in this pre-frontal warm advection regime. However, low-level thermodynamics appear weak given limited heating. Midlevel temperatures also are only forecast to be around -8 to -10 C, resulting in poor midlevel lapse rates. Effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt, and somewhat elongated hodographs could result in some briefly organized cells within morning thunderstorm clusters across parts of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, though severe potential appears limited at this time. By the time the cold front moves into southern MS/AL during the evening/overnight, considerable mid/upper level drying is forecast and thunderstorms are not expected to be severe. ..Leitman.. 10/11/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 11 17:31:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 11 17:31:01 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z A southward-advancing surface cold front will continue across the Plains this afternoon. Winds gusting 40-50 mph have been observed in surface observations across Wyoming and Montana this morning. Strong west to southwest surface winds will overlap with low relative humidity ahead of the cold front across much of the central Plains this afternoon. Dry northerly flow will be possible behind the frontal passage. Within the central High Plains Elevated area, brief periods of near-critical fire-weather conditions may be possible across the Nebraska Panhandle southward into northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas. ..Thornton/Weinman.. 10/11/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the central CONUS today. Meanwhile a surface low will continue to deepen as it moves east across the Canadian Prairie. ...Portions of the central Plains and central High Plains... A cold front will move through the Plains today. In its wake, dry and breezy conditions will develop with winds of 15 to 25 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 25 percent expected from southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado into Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Some critical conditions are likely, but are not expected to persist for long enough as cooler air moves in behind the front and relative humidity improves as a result. ...Portions of the Northern Plains... Very windy conditions (25 to 30 mph sustained winds) are expected in the wake of the cold front across the northern Plains. Relative humidity may be too high to support fire weather concerns in some locations, but relative humidity of 20-30 percent is expected from southeast Montana to north-central South Dakota where elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains tonight through early Wednesday morning. ...KS to WI tonight... A northern stream shortwave trough will continue to dig southeastward and amplify over the northern Plains, as a lower latitude trough and moisture plume eject northeastward from OK/KS/MO toward IL today. A few (mainly elevated) thunderstorms will be possible within the low-midlevel moisture plume from eastern OK across MO into IL this afternoon and Lower MI by this evening. To the west of the thicker clouds and in advance of a cold front associated with the amplifying northern Plains midlevel trough, a modest increase in low-level moisture will occur today from OK to IA and WI. Though the richer low-level moisture will be confined much farther south into the Gulf of Mexico along a remnant frontal zone and with a developing tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s will spread northeastward in advance of the cold front. Regional 12z soundings revealed a relatively warm elevated mixed layer over the central/northern Plains, which will act to cap the boundary layer through this afternoon. By late evening, ascent atop the frontal surface should be sufficient for thunderstorm development across MN/western WI where the cap will be weaker, with subsequent storm development later tonight and farther southwest into KS/MO/IA. Lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear will support the potential for isolated large hail and strong surface wind gusts with bands of convection slightly behind the surface cold front (better chance for strong winds farther south toward KS/MO/IA). ...Southwest TX and interior southern CA this afternoon... An isolated strong storm may form this afternoon over the high terrain near Fort Stockton, where deep-layer vertical shear and buoyancy could support low-end supercell potential. However, storm coverage will be isolated at best and warming is expected in the mid levels, so any severe threat should remain too low to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, isolated strong outflow gusts may occur in the higher terrain across southern CA this afternoon, where deeper mixing results in inverted-v profiles. The threat for severe storms appears to be low enough to preclude an outlook area. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 10/11/2022 Read more

  Prescribed Burning Planned at Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge COMMERCE CITY-Weather permitting, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) will be conducting prescribed burning activities on the Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge beginning Monday, October 10th. The FWS plans to burn up to 2,064 acres over 2 weeks. The burns will be conducted between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. Smoke will be visible for several miles from the perimeter of the Refuge and people in the area may smell smoke. The purpose of the burns is to reinvigorate the growth of native prairie vegetation, reduce accumulated litter, manage efforts for weed control and improve habitat to sustain wildlife. Prescribed burns are also an important tool land managers use to reduce the risk of wildfire in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI). Interagency fire crews from the FWS, local fire departments and other federal agencies will be participating in the prescribed burns. Safety is our number one priority...

All four states—Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Kansas—are affected by dry conditions. Many counties have issued burn bans, as well as Joplin, Missouri. KOAM News Now (Joplin, Mo.), Oct 8, 2022

Low rain and snowfall in California and reduced water supplies from the Colorado River in Southern California caused tomatoes and onions to shrivel and jeopardized the growing of leafy greens in the winter. Produce prices were rising in grocery stores, and U.S. inflation has risen to its highest level in 40 years. California grows about 30% of the processing tomatoes used worldwide. In August the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered the 2022 forecast to 10.5 million tons, a drop of 10% from its estimate of 12.2 million tons earlier in the year. Reuters (New York), Oct. 10, 2022

Residents of Greenwood were urged to conserve water due to heat and drought. The city website noted that the measure was temporary and will end after rainfall. City water is not to be used to irrigate lawns. Greenwood gets its water from Greenwood City Lake and James Fork Lake. Northwest Arkansas News (Fayetteville, Ark.), Sept 23, 2022 and Fort Smith Southwest Times Record (Ark.), Oct 11, 2022

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Julia, located inland over southern Guatemala.

Near the coast of Southern Mexico:
Tropical Depression Julia is forecast to dissipate inland over
Guatemala later today or tonight. A portion of its remnants are
expected to move westward and could contribute to the formation of
a new area of low pressure just south of the coast of southern
Mexico in another day or two. Some subsequent gradual development
of the new system will be possible while it moves generally
westward to west-northwestward near the coast of Mexico through the
end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the remnants of Julia interacting with a broader
area of low pressure will likely cause flash flooding and mudslides
across portions of southern Mexico and northern Central America
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 10 17:27:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 10 17:27:02 UTC 2022.