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It is difficult to get the needed fertilizer, due to the low level of the Mississippi River slowing the transport of cargo. Kansas Wheat (Manhattan, Kan.), Oct 12, 2022

Drought left pumpkins smaller than last year, according to the co-owner of a pumpkin patch. Siouxland Matters (Sioux City, Iowa), Oct. 13, 2022

The city of Magnolia has reached 60% of daily pumping capacity from its wells, triggering Stage 2 drought restrictions. Community Impact – Houston (Texas), Oct 13, 2022

Clostridium diseases are spreading among livestock amid drought in East Texas. One veterinarian said that he's seeing cases among cattle, sheep and goats daily. A vaccine can protect livestock against the bacteria and avoid fatal illness. A shot of penicillin may also keep the animal alive if disease is caught early enough. KTRE-TV ABC 9 (Lufkin, Texas), Oct 13, 2022

The Biden administration announced that it intends to pay Colorado River water users to leave water in Lake Mead through $4 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act. Applicants can receive a fixed amount of money per acre-foot of water, depending on how long they can agree to leave the water in Lake Mead. Some stakeholders were considering lowering their water use by hundreds of thousands of acre-feet annually. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), Oct. 12, 2022

Drought curbed pumpkin size at farms in western Massachusetts. WWLP-22 News (Chicopee, Mass.), Oct 8, 2022

Coalinga could run out of water by December. Supplying the town with water from elsewhere will be very costly. Officials estimated that water purchased from private vendors would drive up the cost from $133,000 to $1.3 million for the same amount of water. KSEE-TV NBC 24 Fresno (Calif.), Oct. 13, 2022

In August, 618 water waste complaints came into the MyLA311 system, marking a record number of contacts. This also makes the fifth month that a monthly record has been set for MyLA311 water waste calls. Crosstown (Los Angeles, Calif.), Oct 13, 2022

Texas has an unusually high number of aphids this year, along with fewer predators of the insects, both due to drought. The aphids are secreting a sticky residue called honeydew that is water soluble and will wash away with rain. The Dallas Morning News (Texas), Oct 12, 2022

In Nashville, drought has affected vegetation and wildlife. Trees stopped producing chlorophyll early and were dropping dry leaves. Wildflowers ceased to bloom, mosquitoes vanished, and wildlife flocked to the birdbaths. The organic vegetable garden was abandoned. Nashville received 0.01 inches of rain in the past 30 days, according to the NWS. Armadillos have also come out during the day to forage amid drought, although the creatures are normally nocturnal. A sunken car was discovered in Sevier Lake in Shelby Park on Oct. 12. WPLN-FM (Nashville, Tenn.), Oct 11, 2022

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... The primary change to the Outlook was to expand the Elevated highlights eastward across portions of the Lower/Middle MS Valley and northeastward across parts of the TN and OH Valleys. Through this corridor, confidence in the overlap of 20-25 percent minimum RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 30 mph) has increased. While many of these areas have received rainfall over the last 72 hours, the higher totals have generally been focused both north and south of the expanded highlights. Therefore, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread, especially considering ongoing drought conditions. In addition, locally critical conditions (sustained surface winds of 20 mph amid 20 percent RH) will be possible over far western KY and far southeastern MO during peak heating. However, these conditions look too brief and localized for a Critical area at this time. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... On Friday, the upper-level low will swing southward into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, this will result in a tightening pressure gradient across the northern/central Plains. Cold air will be present beneath this upper low, but temperatures will warm with west/southward extent. Therefore, relative humidity will drop into the 20s across central Nebraska and into the teens across southeast Wyoming into southwest Nebraska, northeast Colorado and much of Kansas. In this region, winds are expected to be 20 to 25 mph due to the tight pressure gradient and strong mid-level flow. ERC values in this region are mostly above the 90th percentile and therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 13 17:57:01 UTC 2022.

462
ABPZ20 KNHC 131725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mean upper level trough will persist over the eastern U.S. on Friday, with an upper low and embedded shortwave trough pivoting east across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. Another upper low off the southern CA coast will meander southward toward northern Baja. between these two systems, shortwave upper ridging will be centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across New England with the southern extent of the front arcing across the western Atlantic offshore from the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coasts and into northern/central FL. Surface high pressure behind the front across the Southeast, and weak lee troughing over the southern High Plains will result in southerly flow across the Southern Plains. Gulf moisture will return northward toward across much of TX into far southern OK. This warm advection regime may result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across parts of the TX coast, but negligible large-scale forcing will limit thunderstorm activity further north across TX/southern OK despite increasing moisture. A few lightning flashes may also occur ahead of the surface front across New England, but a cool boundary-layer and limited instability will preclude severe potential. Additional isolated lightning flashes are possible across south FL, but weak forcing and poor lapse rates/modest shear will preclude organized severe potential. ..Leitman.. 10/13/2022 Read more

Supplemental water has been provided for Tule elk at Point Reyes National Seashore for the second straight year. Supplemental water systems were reactivated and were being maintained by seashore staff until rain begins again this fall and winter. The first time that water was provided for the Tomales Point Tule Elk Reserve was in June 2021 when unprecedented and extreme drought prompted the National Park Service to bring water for the elk. National Parks Traveler (Park City, Utah), Oct 13, 2022

MD 1870 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PA/NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1870 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Areas affected...Central PA/NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131657Z - 131900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage will be possible with low-topped convection this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection has gradually consolidated over the past few hours along an eastward-moving cold front across parts of central PA/NY, with peak wind gusts generally in the 30-45 mph range thus far. Buoyancy will remain quite limited, but SBCAPE may increase into the 200-400 J/kg range where temperatures can rise into the mid/upper 60s F, and convection is likely to be sustained along the front through the remainder of the afternoon. The strongest low-level flow will likely remain displaced somewhat east of the front, in association with a 50+ kt low-level jet. However, low-level flow/shear will still be sufficient for isolated wind-damage potential in association with any small bowing segments or mesovortices along the frontal band, especially if pockets of slightly stronger heating/destabilization can materialize in advance of the front. At this time, the threat is expected to remain too marginal/isolated for watch issuance. ..Dean/Hart.. 10/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40237806 41407760 43187675 44327615 44977502 44957386 43657447 42237541 40437656 39817688 39827737 39757828 40237806 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... The forecast generally remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Outlook based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Critical highlights were expanded slightly southeastward into the Middle MS Valley, where minimal rainfall accumulations over the last 72 hours should support at least modestly receptive fuels given areas of moderate to extreme drought. Surface observations across this area already show 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH. And, continued boundary-layer mixing into enhanced dry air aloft per low-level water vapor imagery and 12Z observed soundings should foster additional RH reductions this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... Very strong northwesterly flow is expected across much of the northern and central Plains. These strong winds will come as a result of the tightening pressure gradient and deep vertical mixing beneath the very strong mid-level flow. Widespread relative humidity in the teens is expected across the eastern half of the northern and central Plains. However, these dry and breezy conditions will also persist into portions of Ohio and Missouri. However, recent moderate to heavy rainfall has limited fuel receptiveness across these regions. Therefore, have kept the Critical delineation farther west. Some isolated areas may have received less precipitation and therefore may have receptive fuels. Given the strength of the winds and the dryness, have kept an Elevated delineation across this region to cover the threat for some large fire growth. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...AND ACROSS THE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts are also possible across a portion of coastal Texas. Threats in both areas are most likely during the afternoon to early evening. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States... Morning water vapor loop shows a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 90+ mid level jet max tracking across the mid-MS Valley. Ahead of the upper system, a surface cold front extends from western NY/PA southward into GA/AL. As the cold front and jet max track eastward, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity along/ahead of the front. The pre-frontal air mass is quite cloudy, with limited potential for afternoon destabilization. Nevertheless, frontal forcing and strong winds aloft will help to induce a few low-topped but fast-moving bowing structures. Present indications are that the overall severe threat will be marginal, but locally damaging wind gusts may occur with the stronger or more organized line segments. An isolated brief tornado is also possible along the line this afternoon. ...Texas Gulf Coast... Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over coastal TX, where dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon highs will rise into the lower 90s. A weak surface cold front will sag into this environment later this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show favorable thermodynamic parameters and deep layer shear for a rotating storm or two capable of hail. However, low-level winds are weak and overall forcing is limited. This is expected to keep the severe risk marginal. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/13/2022 Read more

Hay production in the Arkansas-Louisiana-Texas region this summer was halved by heat and drought, and the hay-growing season ends in November. Some ranchers are selling cattle or buying feed. The region has not received rain since Sept. 10. KTBS (Shreveport, La.), Oct 13, 2022

The Rock Rabbit fire is located in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness approximately 4.5 miles to the northeast of Big Creek. It is at 38.5 acres and is a result of lightning on August 22, 2022. No visible smoke has been noted on this fire for several days.  Fire managers continue to patrol the area.  There are no area or trail closures associated with this fire.  Structure protection has been removed from the Rock Rabbit Fire Lookout