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Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 221439 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO EL ROBLITO * LAS ISLAS MARIAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO * NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 106.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Rivers are low across Iowa, showing more rocks and sand bars than water. In Ottumwa, the Army Corps of Engineers river gauge showed .08 of feet of water on the Des Moines River, as of Oct. 10. “So right now we’re using all Des Moines river water for community water supply,” stated the general manager of the Ottumwa Water Works. “I know the river looks really really low right now but we obviously have a pool of water behind us because of the dam historically we have flows like this for extended periods of time.” The Red Rock Dam was releasing 300 cubic feet per second, which is enough for Ottumwa. But the low flow did cause the hydroelectric plant to close, dropping revenue from electricity sales. They budgeted to receive about $450,000 for the year, but were at a little over $300,000 at the present. WHO-TV NBC 13 Des Moines (Iowa), Oct 10, 2022

The flashboards on the Des Moines River were put up in the summer and will remain up through the winter to ensure adequate water supplies at the Des Moines River intake and pumping facility. WHO-TV NBC 13 Des Moines (Iowa), Oct. 11, 2022 The level of the Raccoon River continued to fall, which is the primary water source for Des Moines. Officials with Des Moines Water Works were monitoring the river and anticipate needing to put up the flashboards across a low-head dam next week to keep drawing water from the river. This will the third consecutive year that the measure was needed. Prior to the last three years, the flashboards were last used in 2013, which was also the third of three consecutive years that the boards were used. Des Moines Register (Iowa), Aug. 6, 2022

Estimated Acres: 444Cause:  LightningTotal Personnel:  1 Resources: Personnel assigned to the Bolt Creek Fire are monitoring and prepared to respond if

 NOTICE: This will be the last update provided by the Southeast Washington Type 3 IMT   HIGHLIGHTS:  Command will transfer to a Type 4 Team from the Washington Department of Natural Resources at 6am Saturday. No further updates available on inciweb and Facebook pages after 6pm tonight.

Six Rivers Lightning ComplexSeptember 30, 2022 UPDATE The Six Rivers Lightning Complex is currently 41,596 acres with 97% containment and 75 personnel assigned to the incident.CURRENT SITUATION Heavy equipment operators, fire crews and patrols are finishing the last projects on the Ammon and Campbell fires. To ensure roadside safety this upcoming winter, crews are currently working to remove trees that pose a potential threat of falling over roadways and critical infrastructure. Pockets of unburned fuel in the interior will continue to smolder and residents may see small smoke outputs. Crews will continue to patrol the fire perimeters. The incident management team have vacated Veterans Park and is back open for the public to enjoy. Some personnel are still occupying the Veterans Hall. UPDATED FOREST ORDER: The new Forest order NO. 22-10-08 Six Rivers Lightning Complex supersedes the previous Forest order NO. 22-10-07. This Order is effective from October 1st, 2022 through October...

The fire is being managed by a local Type 4 incident management organization.  No notable fire activity has taken place on the fire for over two weeks.  Fire managers continue to patrol the fire area.  No new IR imagery has been taken since September 29 as the need has not existed - map highlight to the right is the latest of the fire area.A new closure for the fire was implemented on September 26 and is expected to be terminated with the in-coming weather system.  The majority of the area is open for public use except the Willow Creek and Jeanette Creek Trails, and the Crystal Mountain and Willow Creek Roads remain closed. The BLM terminated their closure order for the lower portion of the Marshall Mountain Mining District as well.  The trial and road closure order that is in effect as of September 26, can be viewed at this link:  Tenmile ClosurePrevious Information:While parts of the fire received a dusting of snow on Thursday, September 29, the warm and dry weather...

Aerial recon of the fire took place on October 19 with no hot spots remaining.  The fire is not expected to grow and a season ending weather event will move this fire to a contained/out status.No area or trail closures are in effect for this fire.  Backcountry users are responsible for knowing and preparing for the hazards involved with entering an active fire area.The fire is at 2,930 acres. Containment of the fire is at 40%, which meets the containment goals for the portion of this fire located outside of the Wilderness Area.  This fire is now in patrol status.The Porphyry Fire started within the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness Area and is a fire start from the August 11th thunderstorms that passed over the Payette National Forest.  On August 18, the fire moved to the west and out of the Wilderness Area. This fire is under a partial Suppression Strategy with Point/Zone Protection being conducted at noted values at risk and containment line being constructed at...

Aerial recon of the fire took place on October 19 and some hot spots remain interior to the fire perimeter with smoke showing.  The fire is not expected to grow and a season ending weather event will move this fire to a contained/out status.No area or trail closures are in effect for this fire. The Patrol Point Fire is at 16,561 acres.  The fire is approximately 7.5 river miles to the west of the Corn Creek Boat Ramp. Structure protection measures were out in place at lower Chamberlain bridge, Stub Cabin, Horse Creek pack bridge, and Butts Creek Point historic lookout - all of which have been removed as the threat diminished. The closure that was in effect is now lifted.  Backcountry users are responsible for knowing and preparing for the hazards involved with entering an active fire area and should plan more than one travel route to escape approaching fire, if needed.The Patrol Point fire is in a remote location with steep and rocky terrain within the Frank Church River of No...

Aerial recon of the fire took place on October 19 and some hot spots remain interior to the fire perimeter with smoke showing.  The fire is not expected to grow and a season ending weather event will move this fire to a contained/out status.No area or trail closures are in effect for this fire.  The fire is at 9,501 acres.  The last IR imagery for the fire was taken on September 29 and showed very few hot spots within the fire's perimeter.Structure protection has been removed from Root Ranch and the Cold Meadows Guard

Aerial recon of the fire took place on October 19 and some hot spots remain interior to the fire perimeter with smoke showing.  The fire is not expected to grow and a season ending weather event will move this fire to a contained/out status.  The fire is at 900 acres now.This fire is located in the Bear Creek drainage, which is a subdrainage off the Little Five Mile Creek approximately 5 miles upriver on the Salmon River from its confluence with the South Fork of the Salmon.No area or trail closures are in effect for this fire. This fire is within the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness and is being managed to meet resource objectives with a point protection strategy to protect identified private and administrative values. The nearest values at risk are the private structures at Five Mile Bar and Payette National Forest Fire Management Officers is in close contact with the residence.The Lemhi fire grew to around 700 acres over several days at the end of September and...

 Prescribed Burn Operations to Begin Near Strawberry  SONORA, CALIF. (October 20,2022) – Fire personnel with the Stanislaus National Forest’s Mi-Wok/Summit Ranger District will conduct prescribed burn operations near the town of Strawberry, primarily between Cold Springs and Leland Meadows. Ignition of the prescribed burn is expected to begin the last week of October and will continue for two to three weeks as long as conditions allow. Burning is contingent on weather, fuel moisture, and air quality. All burning is monitored and conducted in accordance with state and county air quality guidelines. And closely coordinated with local county air quality control districts. Characterized as an understory burn - a prescribed fire ignited under the forest canopy that focuses on the consumption of surface fuels but not the overstory vegetation - prescribed low-intensity fires enhances wildlife habitat, protects and maintains water quality and soil productivity, improves forest ecosystem...

The fire closure order has been terminated.  Road, trails and the area within the fire is open for public use.  Be aware that some roads are closed annually for resource protection and remain closed now.Use caution when in the area! Watch for falling trees. Even if the tree looks robust, it might be at risk of falling because of damaged root systems and fire-loosened soils. As the years pass, dead root systems rot and the likelihood of the tree falling increases. Watch for falling branches as well. Look up often. Take note of fire-weakened trees, snags and overhead dangling branches. Do not sit down and take a break under a fire-weakened or dead tree. Windy days are especially dangerous. Don’t go out in a burn area if it’s forecast to be windy. Leave the area immediately if the wind picks up and there are hazards around you. Don’t make camp below burned trees. Rainy weather is also dangerous. Wind often accompanies rain. And even if it’s just rainy, the chances of...

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z Only minor changes to the ongoing forecast. While winds will be similar to Friday in the southern Plains, RH in parts of Oklahoma into Kansas could be a touch higher. Elevated conditions will be spotty in eastern Colorado. The greatest risk for sustained elevated conditions will be within terrain-favored regions near the Divide/foothills. Locally critical conditions are most probable in the Nebraska Panhandle. This area will be near the deepening surface cyclone and moderate mid-level winds. Such conditions still appear too brief for critical highlights. ..Wendt.. 10/21/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening trough across the Pacific Northwest, upper-level flow will increase across the western US with strengthening southwesterly surface gradients across the Central and High Plains. Gulf moisture will make a limited return across eastern Oklahoma and Nebraska, but remain largely within the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. A broad Elevated area has been introduced across portions of the Central and High Plains, where dry conditions will prevail along with strong gusty winds and receptive fuels. ...Central and High Plains... Southwest winds at 15-20 mph and minimum relative humidity around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent) are possible Saturday. This will support an Elevated delineation extending from portions of western Nebraska southward into eastern Colorado and southern Kansas/west-central Oklahoma. Winds may be marginal across portions of this region along with some potential for mid-level cloud cover in central Oklahoma. Fuels continue to be very dry, with ERCs above the 95 percentile, supporting the Elevated risk even with the potential for marginal winds (mainly across western Colorado and Kansas). ...Southern California and Nevada... Strong westerly downslope flow across portions of southern California and Nevada may lead to areas of elevated fire concern on Saturday. Due to the localized threat area and lack of more robust fuels, an Elevated area was not supported. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 21 18:10:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 21 18:10:02 UTC 2022.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Oct 2022 17:49:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Oct 2022 15:22:27 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Roslyn, located a couple of hundred miles off the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 211746 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 ...ROSLYN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 104.8W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Punta Mita A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warnings is in effect for... * South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.8 West. Roslyn is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast tonight and Saturday, followed by a northward and then north-northeastward motion Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight, then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall along this coastline Saturday night or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. While Roslyn has changed little in strength over the past several hours, rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. In addition, Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by late Saturday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Saturday. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico: Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...ROSLYN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 the center of Roslyn was located near 16.4, -104.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.